Clima continua na ordem do dia e café sobe mais de mil pontos na ICE

Os contratos futuros de café arábica tiveram uma sessão das mais positivas nesta terça-feira na ICE Futures US. No primeiro pregão da semana, já que na segunda-feira os Estados Unidos observaram o feriado do Dia do Presidente, fortes compras especulativas e de fundos foram observadas, comas cotações apresentando oscilações bastante efetivas desde a manhã. Com isso, a posição maio tocou no melhor nível desde 18 de janeiro de 2013. Mais uma vez, as altas estiveram relacionadas com o temor dos players nova-iorquinos com o clima no Brasil. A expectativa era de que as chuvas se mostrassem mais incisivas ao longo do final de semana, no entanto, várias faixas do cinturão cafeeiro brasileiro apresentaram precipitações apenas esporádicas e as temperaturas recuaram de forma modesta. Diante disso, a preocupação climática ainda se mostra uma constante e pode continuar a dar sustentação para ganhos efetivos. Operadores ressaltaram que o quadro mercadológico mudou sobremaneira, com as posições líquidas compradas dos fundos, por exemplo, se mostrando as maiores desde setembro de 2011, conforme a CFTC demonstrou em seu relatório dos traders na última sexta-feira. Algumas tradings e outros operadores já trabalham com um cenário bem mais curto de oferta, notadamente do café arábica, e, diante disso, o anseio comprador se mostra maior. O Brasil, evidentemente, está no centro dessas discussões. A Organização Internacional do Café já fala em produção de46,53 a 50,15 milhões de sacas para o país, ao passo que participantes importantes, como é o caso da exportadora Terra Forte, já trabalham com a perspectiva de perdas de cerca de 10% para a safra deste ano no país. Para a empresa, a expectativa é de uma estabilização das chuvas e, a partir daí, haverá necessidade de cerca de 15 ou 20 dias para se fazer um levantamento e avaliar, assim, as perdas efetivas nas lavouras do país. Segundo a empresa Somar Meteorologia, a tendência é que algumas novas chuvas atinjam o centro-sul do Brasil ainda nesta semana, por conta de uma nova frente fria no Sul e a retomada da umidade da Amazônia, mas, ainda assim, a tendência é de que a média pluviométrica de fevereiro fique abaixo dos níveis históricos para o mês.

No encerramento do dia em Nova Iorque, a posição março teve ganho de 1.275 pontos, com 152,65 centavos de dólar por libra peso, com a máxima em 154,35 centavos e a mínima de 138,75 centavos, com o maio registrando alta de 1.255 pontos, com 154,85 centavos por libra, com a máxima em 156,65 centavos e a mínima em 141,05 centavos. Na Euronext/Liffe, o março teve alta de15 dólares, com 1.825 dólares por tonelada, com o maio tendo valorização de 12dólares, para o nível de 1.818 dólares por tonelada.

De acordo com analistas internacionais, o dia foi dos mais positivos para o café, com uma abertura ao redor dos 140,00 centavos e, logo na sequência, o início de ações mais efetivas por parte dos compradores. Ainda pela manhã, o nível de 150,00 centavos foi rompido, com vários stops se seguindo, sendo que a máxima atingiu o patamar de 154,35 centavos. Além do fator "clima no Brasil", o mercado também ficou bastante atento ao terremoto registrado na segunda-feira em zonas cafeeiras da Colômbia e da Venezuela. As primeiras informações indicam que as lavouras não sofreram maiores prejuízos. No segmento externo, o dia foi de bolsas de valores calmas e estáveis nos Estados Unidos, com o dólar recuando, ainda que ligeiramente, ante uma cesta de moedas internacionais, ao passo que a maior parte das commodities softs apresenta valorização, com destaque, evidentemente, para o café. O segmento de grãos e oleaginosas também teve um dia de altas generalizadas.

"Os ganhos continuam baseados nos fatores relacionados ao clima. Diversos players estão focados no estresse causado às plantas e quanto isso significará de prejuízo à safra de 2014 e até mesmo de 2015 no Brasil. O que verificamos é que o propalado fim do quadro de calor excessivo e poucas chuvas não se apresentou da maneira esperada e, portanto, ainda continua a existir uma pressão para que novas contas sejam efetuadas para se avaliar a disponibilidade do grão. Provavelmente, a indefinição sobre os prejuízos da safra brasileira continuará sendo um item determinante para o humor do mercado, ao menos no curto prazo", disse um trader, que lembrou que, paralelamente às fortes compras do dia, o mercado na ICE também teve um volume significativo de rolagens de posições, já que na próxima quinta-feira tem início as notificações da posição março.

A Associação Brasileira da Indústria de Café informou que o consumo de café no Brasil, segundo consumidor global após os Estados Unidos, registrou ligeiro recuo de 1,2% em 2013, na comparação com 2012, com a bebida sofrendo com a concorrência de produtos prontos, como sucos e achocolatados. Foi a primeira queda no consumo no país desde 2003 e o segundo recuo da série histórica desenvolvida pela entidade desde 1990. De acordo com a Associação, as inúmeras novas opções prontas para o consumo no café da manhã, que incluem bebidas a base de soja, cuja penetração no mercado ainda é pequena comparada ao tradicional cafezinho, têm apresentado um crescimento bastante elevado. Em2014, a instituição estima a retomada do crescimento do consumo interno de café, ao nível de 3% a 4%, com maior procura por cafés de melhor qualidade, desde os tradicionais até os gourmets.

As exportações brasileiras no mês de fevereiro, até o dia17, totalizaram 945.429 sacas de café, queda de 0,33% em relação às 948.564sacas embarcadas no mesmo período do mês anterior, de acordo com informações do Cecafé (Conselho dos Exportadores de Café do Brasil).

Os estoques certificados de café na bolsa de Nova Iorque tiveram queda de 1.400 sacas, indo para 2.631.240 sacas.

Tecnicamente, o março na ICE Futures US tem resistência154,35, 154,50, 155,00, 155,50, 156,00, 156,30, 156,50, 157,00, 157,50, 158,00,158,50, 159,00, 159,50 e 159,90-160,00 centavos de dólar, com o suporte em138,75, 138,50, 138,00, 137,50, 137,20, 137,00, 136,50, 136,35, 136,00, 135,50,135,00, 134,50, 134,00, 133,50, 133,00, 132,90, 132,50 e 132,05-132,00 centavos.

Londres segue Nova Iorque e fecha terça com bons ganhos

Os contratos futuros de café robusta negociados na Euronext/Liffe encerraram esta terça-feira com bons ganhos, em uma sessão marcada pelas compras especulativas e pelo reflexo do forte desempenho dos arábicas em Nova Iorque. Apesar dos bons avanços, a posição maio não rompeu o nível psicológico de 1.900 dólares, mas conseguiu conter, até com certa tranquilidade, a pressão inicial, que havia feito com que o patamar de 1.812dólares fosse testado.

De acordo com analistas internacionais, o dia foi caracterizado por uma boa movimentação técnica e por quedas na primeira metade do pregão e pela retomada dos ganhos logo na sequência, com muitos players operando nas arbitragens. Os arábicas em Nova Iorque subiram fortemente, refletindo a questão climática no Brasil e abriram espaço para que em Londres, com os robustas, as aquisições também fossem identificadas.

"Tivemos uma sessão bastante procurada e os ganhos vieram na esteira do comportamento positivo de Nova Iorque. Temos, evidentemente, uma correlação. Afinal, muitos players avaliam que o mercado de arábica terá uma disponibilidade menor, por conta da quebra de safra do Brasil, algo que ainda não foi devidamente medido. Mas se isso realmente ocorrer, a tendência é que, assim como verificado pouco tempo atrás, os robustas sejam muito mais demandados, o que daria um bom suporte aos terminais", disse um trader.

O março teve uma movimentação ao longo do dia de 1,76 mil contratos, contra 2,92 mil do maio. O spread entre as posições março e maio ficou em 7 dólares.

No encerramento do dia, o março teve alta de 15 dólares, com1.825 dólares por tonelada, com o maio tendo valorização de 12 dólares, para o nível de 1.818 dólares por tonelada.

Dry Brazil outlook sends coffee prices soaring

Coffee futures soared 10% to their highest in a year after the return of rains to parts of central Brazil, after a near-two-month drought, missed many major growing areas, turning the drought into a "credible threat" to production.

Arabica coffee futures for May, New York best-traded contract, touched 156.65 cents a pound, the highest for a nearest-but-one contract since January last year, amid fresh concerns over dry weather in Brazil, the top grower and exporter of the bean.

At that price, the contract was up 39% so far in 2014.

While weekend rains reached Minas Gerais, Brazil's top coffee producing state, amounts represented only a small proportion of the rainfall deficit suffered since late December, especially in north easterly areas, where temperatures reached 94-100 degrees Fahrenheit (34-38 Celsius).

'Dryness likely to linger'

And the state is expected to remain relatively dry.

This week, "some dryness is likely to linger across central Minas Gerais," meteorologists at MDA said.

At WxRisk.com, Dave Tolleris said that, in the one-to-five-day outlook, "most of east central Brazil including Bahia Minas Gerias into Sao Paulo stays pretty dry".

And heading to the end of February too, Minas Gerais looks like proving dry, missing out on Mr Tolleris termed a "wide plume of rain and thunderstorms coming in from the southwest portions of the central Atlantic" to more southerly states, such as Parana, and to more westerly areas, such as Mato Grosso.

'Credible threat'

Brazilian consultancy Somar said that the Cerrado region in northern Minas Gerais would receive at most 14mm of rain over the next five days, with many other areas receiving less.

This following a December-January period in which southern Minas Gerais received half of normal rainfall, or less.

Judith Ganes-Chase, the veteran soft commodities analyst, said: "The dry weather now becomes a credible threat to the 2014-15 production outlook.

"The 2014-15 Brazilian crop had potential to be a record breaker due to the possible enormous size. But now it may be remembered for breaking a different type of record - the first Brazilian crop to be seriously jeopardised by dry weather after it has successfully flowered."

Typically, central Brazil sees wet weather from December, when its sugar cane mills take a seasonal break to avoid the rains.

Damage estimate

Ms Ganes-Chase added that "it is perhaps more the high temperatures than the lack of rain that could hurt the crop more.

"The area of dryness covers much of the coffee region and reservoirs that provide moisture to the region are already running low."

Now, "the question is by how much can the crop be reduced," she said, flagging that Brazil typically requires some 52m bags to cover typical exports and domestic use – it is the second-biggest consuming country after the US.

Coffee trader Olam International on Friday estimated the crop at 50m-51m bags, compared with an initial forecast of 57m-60m bags while Cooxupé, the world's biggest coffee co-operative – which has likened affected, hollow cherries to "bubblewrap"- has estimated losses of up to 30% within its footprint.

The Fundação Pró-Café producers' group has estimated losses in southern Minas Gerais at 20%.

Drop-off point

One key factor in determining losses will be the degrees to which the drought causes to cherries fall from trees, so escaping harvesting.

The Conselho Nacional do Café producers' group warned that the "drought, combined with high temperatures, may cause premature dropping".

Ms Ganes-Chase said: "If the cherries start to fly from the trees, dropping prematurely then there is no return for that lost coffee."

Arabica Coffee Leaps Higher on Persistent Dryness in Brazil

Alexandra Wexler

  NEW YORK--Coffee prices posted the biggest one-day gain in almost a decade Tuesday after weekend

rains in Brazil did little to ease dry conditions in growing areas, fueling concerns about supplies

from the world's largest producer.

  Arabica coffee for delivery in March rose 9.1% to $1.5265 a pound on the ICE Futures U.S.

exchange, while the more actively traded contract for May delivery closed up 8.8% at $1.5485 a

pound. Both contracts had the largest percentage gain since November 2004 and the highest settlement

since Jan. 18, 2013.

  Hot, dry weather in Brazil has been interfering with the development of coffee cherries, the fruit

that surrounds the seeds that are harvested and roasted as coffee beans. Growers and traders had

hoped rainfall over the weekend would increase moisture levels for the coffee trees, but it was

minimal.

  "Ten percent of the crop is certainly beyond repair" at this point, said Shawn Hackett, president

of brokerage and consulting firm Hackett Financial Advisors in Boynton Beach, Fla.

  Arabica futures will likely rise to $2 a pound in the next few weeks, said Mr. Hackett, who placed

futures and options bets on rising coffee prices throughout January. Coffee prices last traded above

$2 in March 2012 and are up 40% this year.

  The dry spell has many traders and investors reducing their coffee forecasts as they worry about

production losses in Brazil, the source of one-third of the world's coffee. In November, many

analysts had forecast the Brazilian crop would be a record for the third consecutive year. But now

some analysts and investors are saying global production could fall short of demand this season.

  "We're definitely going to be in a deficit" because of the reduced production in Brazil, Mr.

Hackett said.

  January and February have been the driest months in Brazil in 30 years, according to Somar

Meteorologia, a Sao Paulo-based private weather service. Coffee trees need at least 20 inches of

rain over the first three months of the year to develop normally, but the regions have received

between four and six inches so far, Somar said.

  "We may well be on our way to potentially catastrophic losses," said Sterling Smith, a futures

specialist at Citigroup in Chicago.

  About 1 1/4 inches of rain or less have fallen on the coffee-growing areas over the last four

days, according to weather forecaster DTN, and the outlook for the next five days is for continued

above-normal temperatures and limited rainfall.

  "We have to expect to see a lot of volatility (in coffee prices) in the next week or so" until

more is known about the crop damage, said Hernando de la Roche, senior vice president at INTL

FCStone in Miami.

  This is the seventh session this year that arabica futures have had a 4% or larger move, with six

of them as gains. At this point in 2013, there had been one such move.

  However, with the rapid rise in prices, a pullback in the market could be imminent, some traders

said.

  "I still feel like everyone's just running in, and when it finally falls, it will fall hard," said

Hector Galvan, senior market strategist at RJO Futures in Chicago. "It would be hard for me to think

we're taking coffee to $2 over the next month without having concrete news" on what the damage has

been in Brazil.

  Growers are likely to begin evaluating how much damage has been done at the end of this month,

when the coffee cherries are more developed. The cherries could be smaller than usual, or they could

fall from the trees prematurely, due to the lack of moisture, analysts said.

  Raw-sugar prices also rallied Tuesday on the persistent hot, dry weather in the No. 1 grower and

exporter of the sweetener.

  Brazil's 2014 sugar-cane harvest will be reduced by at least 36 million tons because of the

unusually dry weather at the start of the year, industry group Unica said Monday. That would leave

production on par with the previous season.

  Raw sugar for delivery in March on the ICE Futures U.S. exchange ended 3.4% higher at 16.16 cents

a pound Tuesday, the highest settlement since Jan. 2. The contract for delivery in May closed 3.2%

higher at 16.50 cents a pound.

  In other markets, cotton for delivery in March closed up 0.4% at 87.91 cents a pound, and the May

contract ended 0.5% higher at 89.48 cents. March-delivery cocoa settled at $2,928 a ton, down 0.2%

on the day, while the May contract settled 0.3% lower at $2,959 a ton. Orange juice for delivery in

March ended down 0.5% at $1.4365 a pound, and May closed at $1.4445 a pound, down 0.4%.

World Coffee Weather

Restricted Rainfall Pattern To Resume in Sul de Minas, Brazil

            Kansas City, February 18 (World Weather, Inc.) – Some important rain fell in Sul de Minas, portions of Sao Paulo and northern Parana Friday through Monday easing long term dryness. However, rainfall was still below average in quite a few areas and the outlook does not paint an abundance of rain for the region. Showers and thunderstorms will occur periodically during the coming week to ten days. Parana and Sao Paulo will be wettest and there will be times when southern Sul de Minas will receive some needed rain, as well. However, areas from northern Sul de Minas northward into unirrigated areas of Bahia will continue stressed in a limited rainfall and warm temperature bias.  Moderate to heavy rain fell on portions of Ivory Coast’s coffee producing area during the holiday weekend and some coffee likely flowered.  Rain was heaviest near Gagnoa and follow up rain there will be important for pollination and early cherry setting in areas that have flowered.  Some rain is expected today with a drier pattern beginning Wednesday.

           

           

BRAZIL 

            Showers and thunderstorms occurred Friday through Monday from Parana through Sao Paulo western and southern Minas Gerais and into southern portions of Zona de Mata and Rio de Janeiro where moisture amounts varied from 14 to 59 mm most often. Some locally heavier rainfall was noted in northern Sao Paulo and western portions of Sul de Minas where upwards to 111 millimeters resulted. However, some of the rain fell on minor coffee production areas.  Northern portions of Zona de Mata into Espirito Santo and interior Bahia remained dry.   Some coastal rain in Bahia produced up to 54 millimeters. The rain was welcome to all coffee areas impacted and a break from crop stress likely resulted, but some of Sul de Minas and Zona de Mata will not have much follow up precipitation limiting the amount of additional relief that will occur.

            Highest temperatures Friday through Monday were in the lower 30s Celsius most often with extreme highs of 34 to 38 in Rio de Janeiro, Espirito Santo and from northeastern Minas Gerais to interior northern Minas Gerais. The coolest temperatures were in west-central Minas Gerais where highs were limited to the upper 20s. Lowest morning temperatures were in the upper teens and lower 20s with a few middle teens from southern Zona de Mata to eastern Bahia.

            Weather conditions through Thursday will produce isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms from Parana to Bahia and Espirito Santo. However, most daily rainfall will vary from 1 to 8 millimeters with a few totals to 20 millimeters.

            Rainfall will increase across Parana and Sao Paulo Friday into Saturday before slowly lifting northeast into Sul de Minas and Rio de Janeiro early to mid-week next week. Amounts will range from 10 to 30 millimeters each day with local totals to 55 in Sao Paulo and Parana while 5 to 20 millimeters and local totals to 30 occur in far southern Sul de Minas. Rainfall further north in Sul de Minas, Zona de Mata, Bahia, Espirito Santo and northern Minas Gerais will not be any different than that of today through Friday with net drying most likely, despite isolated to scattered showers of light intensity.

            Despite additional shower activity in Sul de Minas, Rio de Janeiro and a few other Brazil coffee areas of importance, a general lack of consistent rainfall of significance will leave most of these areas still in need of greater moisture. Crop stress will continue with a further reduction in coffee production possible without any further improvements in rainfall. The areas of greatest concern because of dryness will continue from portions of Sul de Minas and Zona de Mata to Espirito Santo and unirrigated areas of Bahia.

            Weather conditions advertised for the second half of next week and into the first days of March suggest bringing greater rainfall into Sul de Minas and areas further north will be a difficult task to achieve and crop stress may be ongoing or a while longer.

            Temperatures will not change greatly over the coming week to ten days with highs in the upper 20s and lower 30s occurring most often, especially in the wetter areas. Highs further north will be in the lower to middle 30s with extremes in the upper 30s. Lows each night will be in the upper teens and lower 20s.  

MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA

            Dry weather was observed in Mexico Friday through Monday. Mostly dry weather continued southward into Central America with some light shower activity noted from Guatemala into Honduras especially along the eastern coast. Mostly dry weather was noted elsewhere.

            Not much change will occur in coffee weather through the next week. Rain is most likely from random locations in southern Mexico through the Central American countries. Rainfall will be greatest near the Caribbean Coast which is east of most coffee production areas. However, a few showers and thunderstorms will reach into production areas with little impact anticipated.

COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA

            Mostly dry weather occurred Friday through Monday in Venezuela. Showers and thunderstorms occurred in southwestern Colombia while some scattered showers brought light rain to portions of central and northern portions of the nation.

            Northern Colombia and western Venezuela will continue to see little significant rainfall for at least the next week. More frequent precipitation will occur across southern coffee areas of the Colombia with some light shower activity expected in central areas.  Most of the moisture will not be great enough to cause serious delays to harvesting.

PERU

            Scattered and light showers occurred in central and southern Peru during the holiday weekend while a few light showers occurred in northern Peru.

            A similar weather pattern will continue through the next week in Peru. Scattered showers will continue to impact southern and central regions while northern locations receive little significant precipitation. Rainfall in southern and central locations will be light most often which will limit the impact on soil moisture and crop conditions. 

PUERTO RICO/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/CUBA

            Light shower activity occurred across much of the region during the holiday weekend. However, rainfall was light and likely countered by evaporation in most locations. Some local showers may have produced an increase in moisture in some locations.

            A near daily chance of showers and thunderstorms will occur through the next week.  Most of the resulting rain will continue to be light and resulting rainfall is not expected to counter evaporating leaving many areas seasonably dry.

VIETNAM

            Dry weather continued in the Central Highlands Friday through Monday.  Seasonably dry weather will prevail through this week. Some erratic shower activity may develop across portions of the region, but the showers will be brief and light and should not have a significant influence on the region’s soil or crops.

IVORY COAST/GHANA/NIGERIA/CAMEROON

            Satellite imagery and official rainfall reports indicated light to moderate and locally heavy rain fell on Ivory Coast during the holiday weekend with Ghana seeing light rainfall.  Precipitation was heaviest in southern portions of the Ivory Coast where the city of Gagnoa reported 90 millimeters of rain which was likely enough to induce some flowering of coffee in the region.

            Showers and thunderstorms will continue today in Ivory Coast and into portions of Ghana. A drier weather pattern is then expected to develop across much of West-Central Africa. Some isolated to scattered showers may occur on a near daily basis, but precipitation will be limited to mostly coastal locations, outside of coffee country.            

            A close watch on the rainfall distribution is warranted.  Additional rain near and north of Gagnoa, Ivory Coast may increase coffee flowering and follow up rain will be needed to support pollination and early cherry setting. The area impacted by significant rain is still small, but in that region some flowering is suspected.

EAST-CENTRAL AFRICA (Ethiopia, Uganda, Kenya, and Tanzania)

            Light to moderate rain fell on much of Tanzania during the holiday weekend while a large part of southwestern Kenya received light rain.  Isolated and light showers occurred in most other areas with western Ethiopia mostly dry.

            Very little change in the weather will occur over the next week. Much of east-central Africa will be at risk of random to scattered showers and thunderstorms, but most of the resulting rainfall will be light. The exception will be the Pare region of Tanzania which will likely receive some locally moderate rainfall.  Northern Uganda and western Ethiopia will be driest and will see little significant rainfall.

INDONESIA 

                        Rain continued to be restricted in central and northern Sumatra during the holiday weekend.  Meanwhile significant rain fell from southern Sumatra into Java, Timor, and central Sulawesi. 

            A beneficial increase in rain will occur in central and northern Sumatra during the next few days with drier weather returning this weekend into early next week.  Other areas will see daily rounds of scattered showers and thunderstorms through the next week.

INDIA

            Friday through Monday was mostly dry. The dry weather pattern will not change through much of the next week. Most days will be completely dry through the next week but some occasional showers may produce light and insignificant moisture.

Commodities Market Impact Weather: Precipitation for Midwest, Possible Severe Storms Thursday

  OMAHA--Precipitation this week in the Midwest, a chance for severe weather Thursday for some

states, and favorable crop conditions for Brazil are the primary weather items for the commodity

trade's attention Tuesday.

PRECIPITATION FOR MIDWEST

  The DTN ag weather forecast calls for precipitation during the next few days that may mean

transportation delays, mostly from eastern Iowa and Missouri eastward. Thursday could end up being a

stormy day for several states. There are already blizzard and winter weather watches for Iowa,

Minnesota and Wisconsin, but farther south there is the potential for severe weather. The area to

watch includes eastern and southern Illinois, Indiana, Ohio and the Delta region: this could include

hail, high winds and even isolated tornadoes are possible. No significant cold weather through the

end of this week for the Midwest. However, next week's weather will bear watching as a return to

high-latitude blocking pattern is expected. This means some risk of cold air moving towards the

Midwest.

MUCH WARMER IN SOUTHERN PLAINS

  In the Southern Plains, a return to colder weather is expected in the north and east U.S. region

during the six-to-10-day period. This appears to be mostly outside of the Plains' wheat belt but it

will bear watching.

MORE RAIN NEEDED IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL

  Recent showers and thundershowers favored filling crops in the south, but more is still needed,

especially in RGDS. Weekend rains in Mato Grosso will affect the harvest.

MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS FOR BRAZIL COFFEE AREAS

  Moderate to heavy showers and thundershowers have occurred through much of this area during the

long weekend. This will help to ease stress to coffee trees and developing cane following hot and

mostly dry weather for the first half of February. More rain will be needed to replenish soil

moisture and irrigation supplies. Showers will be in the area during this week.

SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR ARGENTINA

  Soybeans and corn will benefit from adequate to surplus soil moisture, except in areas where

recent heavy storms has caused serious flooding. Scattered showers and thundershowers today and

Wednesday will maintain soil moisture and mostly favor crops.

MOSTLY FAVORABLE PATTERN IN CHINA

  Moderate to locally heavy snow and rain has occurred through central and southern winter wheat

areas of eastern China and through most winter rapeseed areas during the past week. This will help

replenish soil moisture and favor crops when they break dormancy in the spring. Snow to the north

was not as heavy but still fairly significant for this time of the year. Snow and ice and to a

lesser extent rain will delay transportation somewhat.

HOTTER TREND FOR SOUTH AFRICA

  A recent turn to higher temperatures and less rain may continue during this week. This will

deplete some soil moisture and increase stress to developing maize.

Coffee Prices Soar as Dry Weather in Brazil Persists

Alexandra Wexler

     NEW YORK--Coffee prices surged to 13-month highs Tuesday morning after weekend rains in the

growing areas of Brazil did little to ease the dryness.

     "We expected to see larger beneficial rains," said Sterling Smith, a futures specialist at

Citigroup in Chicago. "The vast majority of the coffee areas are going to be left fairly hot and

fairly dry."

     A dry spell in No. 1 coffee grower and exporter Brazil is affecting plant development and has

pushed arabica-coffee prices more than 30% higher this year. Traders worry about production losses,

although there isn't a shortage of coffee globally.

     Arabica coffee for delivery in March on the ICE Futures U.S. exchange was recently 6.1% higher

at $1.4840 a pound, while the more-active contract for May delivery was up 5.9% at $1.5075 a pound.

The May contract reached $1.5665 a pound in early trade, the highest level since Jan. 18, 2013.

     "I don't think there's really anything here to stop the coffee (moving higher) until we see how

big the damage will be" to output, Mr. Smith said. "If (the dry weather) gets worse, we're on our

way to $2."

Corn, coffee lead hedge funds' bullish turn on ags

Hedge funds extended their bullish positioning on agricultural commodities to one of the highest levels in the last year, driven by a retreat in bearish sentiment on corn and coffee, and upbeat hopes for soybeans.

Managed money, a proxy for speculators, raised by more than 116,000 contracts its net long in futures and options in the main 13 US-traded agricultural commodities, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission regulator.

The rise took the aggregate net long above 500,000 contracts for only the second time in the last 14 months.

And it followed talk of funds taking a more positive view on agricultural commodities, in the face of weakness equities, besides a renewed risk premium in some crops warranted by weather concerns - dryness in Brazil and cold, and some dryness, in the US.

Surprise US crop estimates have also bolstered sentiment in grains and oilseeds.

Coffee revival

In arabica coffee - for which Brazilian production estimates have been sharply curtailed because of the lack of rainfall - hedge funds extended to 14,728 contracts their net long position - the extent which long bets, which profit when prices rise, exceed short holdings, which benefit when values fall.

Speculators' net longs in New York softs, Feb 11 (change on week)

Cocoa:          79,944, (-3,094)

Cotton:         52,212, (+6,970)

Arabica coffee: 14,728, (+6,747)

Raw sugar:     -38,576,   (-349)

Sources: Agrimoney.com, CFTC

That represented the most bullish positioning in arabica coffee futures and options, traded in New York, since September 2011.

And raising long exposure has proved a broadly profitable bet, with futures up 0.7% for the week to last Tuesday and rising a further 2.0% since - although more major gains have already been had, with futures up 22% so far in 2014.

As an indication of the damage expected from the dryness, agricultural trader Olam International that the "exceptionally dry" weather in Brazil would cut coffee production in the top producing country to 50m-51m bags, below initial hopes for 57m-60m bags.

Grain gains

Meanwhile, in Chicago corn futures and options, hedge funds turned net long in the week to Tuesday for the first time in seven months, encouraged in part by cold weather in the US, which has hampered crop supplies, but also by a surprisingly large downgrade to estimates for US supplies.

Speculators' net longs in grains and oilseeds, Feb 11, (change on week)

Chicago soybeans:   176,126, (+29,593)

Chicago soymeal:     70,577,  (+4,303)

Chicago corn:        34,340, (+39,654)

Kansas wheat:        13,034,  (+4,733)

Chicago wheat:      -43,225   (+9,738)

Chicago soyoil:     -48,433, (+10,708)

Sources: Agrimoney.com, CFTC

The US Department of Agriculture last Monday cut its estimate for US corn stocks at the close of 2013-14 by 150m bushels to 1.48bn bushel, a far bigger downgrade than investors had forecast, and strengthening price prospects.

Chicago corn for March on Friday put in the highest close for a spot contract in four months.

The Wasde lowered the estimate for wheat stocks by more than expected too, encouraging some covering by speculators of their substantial short positions, which no longer look as profitable bets as they did at the end of January.

Chicago wheat futures have risen 7.7% so far this month.

Firm soy prices

Hedge funds also hiked their net long position in soybeans to more than 176,000 lots, the highest in 16 months, amid fears for the impact of Brazil's dryness on late-planted soybeans.

Speculators' net longs in Chicago livestock, Feb 11, (change on week)

Live cattle:      132,866, (+2,550)

Lean hogs:         48,528, (+4,025)

Feeder cattle:     10,000  (+1,011)

Sources: Agrimoney.com, CFTC

Sentiment on soybeans, which on Friday touched their highest since September, has also been underpinned by a dearth of cancellations by Chinese buyers of US orders, which had been expected now that Brazil's harvest is ramping up.

A dearth of selling by Argentina growers of soybeans, which they see as a hedge against a falling peso, has also fuelled a squeeze in supplies of soymeal, of which the South American country is the top exporter.

Estiagem atípica vai afetar o agronegócio do Brasil neste ano

A estiagem prolongada e atípica, registrada no início deste ano, vai afetar algumas culturas agrícolas que terão quebra de safra e de produção, avaliaram nesta segunda-feira (17), em entrevista, especialistas do setor, durante as comemorações dos 117 anos da Sociedade Nacional de Agricultura (SNA), no Rio de Janeiro.

O presidente do Conselho Superior do Agronegócio, da Federação das Indústrias de São Paulo (Cosag-Fiesp), João Sampaio, disse que esse é o caso da cana-de-açúcar, café, laranja, que deverão apresentar quebra.

“Mesmo a soja, que está indo muito bem, ainda, no Mato Grosso, nos estados onde a estiagem foi mais forte, como Paraná, São Paulo, Mato Grosso do Sul e Minas Gerais, vai quebrar um pouco da safra”. A expectativa, segundo explicou Sampaio, é que a chuva se torne regular a partir de agora e minimize os estragos. “Se a chuva não vier, pode ter um impacto grande na segunda safra de milho, porque com dificuldade de chuva, não se planta. Certamente, vai ter impacto”.

O presidente do Cosag-Fiesp não acredita, entretanto, que o Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) do agronegócio venha a ser afetado. O que normalmente ocorre, quando há quebra de safra, disse ele, é que os preços sobem e a receita bruta do agronegócio pode não ser impactada. Ele explicou que “embora com produção menor, se os preços forem maiores, o PIB fica do mesmo tamanho. Mas, com certeza, afeta a renda do setor, porque, produzindo menos, mesmo que o preço seja maior, você tem um impacto nos seus custos e a rentabilidade fica prejudicada”.

O presidente da Sociedade Nacional da Agricultura (SNA), Antônio Alvarenga, se mostrou mais otimista. Ele acha que a estiagem comprometeu pouco a safra de grãos. “Poderia ser um pouco melhor, mas não chegou a comprometer”. No caso de culturas como café, ele acha que essa perda é muito limitada ainda.

Alvarenga acrescentou que o PIB do agronegócio não vai sofrer grande problema, devido à estiagem. A entidade trabalha com a perspectiva de crescimento de 3,5% a 4% no PIB da agricultura brasileira este ano, superando o PIB do país, que ele estima ficar em torno de 2%. “A gente tem uma vantagem no agronegócio, porque, possivelmente, neste ano o dólar vai ficar bastante mais alto que o dólar médio do ano passado. Você vai ter um crescimento na renda dos produtores também em função do dólar. O PIB vai crescer também por isso”.

Ele destacou que com o dólar apresentando variação, para cima e para baixo, em função das pesquisas eleitorais, o agricultor tem que estar preparado para aproveitar e saber vender bem o seu produto. Lembrou que a atividade agrícola está sujeita a pragas, ao câmbio e a fatores climáticos, além da flutuação natural das commodities (produtos agrícolas e minerais com cotação internacional).

O diretor técnico da SNA, Hélio Sirimarco, destacou que a possibilidade de redução, em torno de 2 milhões de toneladas na safra de soja, ocorrerá mais em função da queda de produtividade. Mas admite que a estiagem também afetou a produção de milho da primeira safra, e que a segunda safra também deve ser menor. “Mas, por enquanto, nada sério”. Disse, porém, que se a estiagem continuar, vai afetar um pouco mais. “O Rio Grande do Sul, por exemplo, que planta por último, pode vir a ser afetado”. Segundo ele, a estiagem afetou a agricultura nacional, “mas nada dramático, por enquanto”. As culturas que estão sofrendo mais são café e laranja. “Aí, o impacto está mais forte”.

Londres tem dia de poucos negócios e ganhos modestos

Os contratos futuros de café robusta negociados na Euronext/Liffe tiveram uma segunda-feira sonolenta, com poucas variações de preço e com um volume bastante limitado de papéis comercializados. Com a ICE Futures US, que atua no segmento de cafés arábicas nos Estados Unidos, fechada, devido a um feriado, o que se observou foram muitos players de lado, limitando sobremaneira os negócios do dia na casa londrina.

De acordo com analistas internacionais, o dia foi marcado pela pouca volatilidade, com a posição maio flutuando em um range de apenas 19dólares e com a preservação do nível psicológico de 1.800 dólares. Com os baixistas não conseguindo romper tal patamar, algumas recompras foram produzidas na segunda metade do pregão, culminando com as altas modestas. O dia também foi caracterizado pelas rolagens, principalmente entre março e maio.

"Mais uma vez, observamos que as origens estão se mostrando bastante limitadas em suas ações. O dia foi praticamente técnico e vietnamitas e indonésios continuam retraídos, talvez acreditando em preços ainda mais consistentes que os atuais 1.800 dólares. E, diante do fato de vários operadores estarem de lado, devido ao feriado do outro lado do Atlântico, ao final a sessão foi marcada pelo marasmo e por oscilações apenas ligeiras", disse um trader.

O março teve uma movimentação ao longo do dia de 1,76 mil contratos, contra 2,92 mil do maio. O spread entre as posições março e maio ficou em 7 dólares.

No encerramento do dia, o março teve alta de 15 dólares, com1.825 dólares por tonelada, com o maio tendo valorização de 12 dólares, para o nível de 1.818 dólares por tonelada.