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terça-feira, 16 de setembro de 2014

“Enough rain may fall in northern Parana and a few southwestern Sao Paulo locations during the coming week to ten days to induce some flowering. However, rainfall in southern Sul de Minas and northeastern Sao Paulo will likely prove to be a little light for flowering. A few pockets of greater rain “may” induce some flowering, but the events, if they occur at all, will be rare. Dry or mostly dry conditions will prevail elsewhere.”

World Coffee Weather
Some Teasing Rain Possible In Southern Brazil Later This Week

By Andy Karst

           Kansas City, September 16 (World Weather, Inc.) – Dry weather occurred in Brazil again Monday and more of the same was expected in to Wednesday. Rain late this week may tease some producers and coffee trees with moisture, but very little, if any, significant flowering is anticipated. In the meantime, Typhoon Kalmaegi will move through northern Vietnam today producing rain and windy conditions in some minor coffee production areas.  Another round of abundant rain occurred in southern Mexico Monday with many areas in Central America receiving rain as well. 


BRAZIL
            No rain fell in Brazil coffee areas Monday.  Some light rain was noted in east-central and northeastern Bahia where amounts were 4 to 8 millimeters.  Afternoon high temperatures were mostly in the upper 20s and lower 30s Celsius with an extreme of 35 in central Bahia and one report of 25 in central Minas Gerais.  Lows this morning were 14 to 18 with readings of 20 to 22 in some northern and coastal areas. 
            Mostly dry weather will occur through Wednesday and temperatures will remain mostly unchanged from those of Monday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will evolve in Parana and Sao Paulo Thursday and continuing Friday and Saturday. Some of the rain will shift into southern portions of Sul de Minas and a part of Rio de Janeiro. Rain totals by Sunday will range from 10 to 25 millimeters in Parana and far southern Sao Paulo while varying from 8 to 20 millimeters in far southern Sul de Minas and northeastern Sao Paulo. Any precipitation that falls further north will not be very significant varying from a trace to 6 millimeters.
            Sunday through Tuesday, Sep. 23, rainfall is not likely to be very great. Most coffee areas will be dry during the period and any showers that evolve will be mostly confined to areas near the coast in Espirito Santo, Rio de Janeiro and Bahia. Rain totals will vary from a trace to 6 millimeters most days with a few locally greater amounts. Most other coffee areas will be dry.
            Another weather disturbance from southern Brazil will bring some rain into Parana and southern Sao Paulo Wednesday into Friday of next week, Sep. 24-26. Rain totals will vary from 10 to 25 millimeters again in northern Parana and southern Sao Paulo while 3 to 20 millimeters occurs in southern Sul de Minas, Rio de Janeiro and northeastern Sao Paulo. Coastal areas will be wettest. Dry or mostly dry conditions will prevail further north.
            Enough rain may fall in northern Parana and a few southwestern Sao Paulo locations during the coming week to ten days to induce some flowering. However, rainfall in southern Sul de Minas and northeastern Sao Paulo will likely prove to be a little light for flowering. A few pockets of greater rain “may” induce some flowering, but the events, if they occur at all, will be rare. Dry or mostly dry conditions will prevail elsewhere.
            Temperatures will stay warm through much of this workweek. Highs will vary from the middle 20s to the middle 30s most often followed by lows in the range of 12 to 19 in the south and 14 to 21 in the north. A few extreme highs to 37 may occur in the far north. Some slight cooling is expected in the south during the coming weekend and early part of next week at which time highs in the south will be in the 20s and northern areas will continue in the middle 20s to middle 30s.  Lowest temperatures at night will change little during the weekend or early part of next week.  
     
 COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA
            Satellite imagery suggested that isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms continued Monday in Colombia and western Venezuela.  Most of the resulting rain was light with some locally moderate amounts suspected in western Venezuela.
            Daily showers and thunderstorms will continue through the next week. Portions of Colombia and western Venezuela will receive rain each day and by this time next week most areas will have been impacted at one time or another. Most of the daily rainfall will be light to locally moderate in intensity.

PERU
                        Rain in northern and central parts of Peru was isolated and light Monday while a larger part of southern Peru received light rain as rain was scattered there.
                        Isolated to scattered showers will occur daily in portions of coffee country, but much of the rain will continue erratically distributed and often quite light. Some locally heavy rain will impact southern areas occasionally. 
             
PUERTO RICO/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/CUBA
            Rain was suspected of falling on much of the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico Monday.  Amounts were light to locally moderate.  Scattered and mostly light showers occurred in eastern Cuba.  
            Isolated to scattered showers will continue on a near daily basis through the next week.  Resulting rainfall will remain mostly light, but there will be some occasionally moderate rainfall resulting from a few stronger thunderstorms.

MEXICO/CENTRAL AMERICA
            Rain was widespread from southern Mexico into Guatemala and western Honduras Monday.  Many areas in southern Mexico received moderate to heavy rain with light to moderate amounts occurring in Guatemala and western Honduras.  Light rain impacted a few areas in central and northern Mexico while scattered showers and thunderstorms occurred elsewhere in Central America. 
            Mexico and Central America will see a continuation of scattered shower and thunderstorm activity through the next week. Most of the resulting rain will vary from light to moderate with a few pockets of heavy rainfall. Enough precipitation will occur through the next week to favorably support crop development.

VIETNAM
            At 1500 GMT today, Typhoon Kalmaegi was approaching northern Vietnam approximately 118 miles east of Hanoi, Vietnam at 21.3 north, 107.3 east. Movement was to the west northwest at 24 mph and maximum sustained wind speeds were reaching 81 mph. aHaHan
            Kalmaegi was moving at a moderate forward speed and because of that it will not linger long in any crop region, including coffee areas of northern Vietnam. The storm will move inland across far northern portions of Vietnam a little later today and will be quick in reaching Yunnan, China Wednesday evening.
            The storm will weaken greatly as it moves across northern Vietnam and will be quickly downgraded to tropical storm status as it moves over the coast. Additional weakening will occur during the day and by the time the storm center is near northern coffee areas in Vietnam wind speeds will be too light to have a damaging impact on coffee. However, winds of 30 to 45 mph with higher gusts will be possible in a few areas for a brief period of time. Rain totals in coffee areas may range from 65 to 100 millimeters.
            The wind and heavy rain associated with the storm may knock a few developing cherries to the ground, but the impact on production is not likely to be significant.  The storm will have no impact on Quang Tri or the Central Highlands, although it may reduce rainfall in these areas briefly as it passes by to the north.
            Rain was widespread across the Central Highlands Monday with some heavy rain suspected in northern areas and mostly light rain elsewhere. 

IVORY COAST/GHANA/NIGERIA/CAMEROON
            Rain fell on most areas from central and eastern Ghana into southern Benin, southeastern Nigeria, and northwestern Cameroon Monday with parts of southeastern Nigeria and northwestern Cameroon dry.  Most of the rain was light to locally moderate in intensity.  
            Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue across west-central Africa during the coming week to ten days.  All areas will get rain at one time or another and sufficient amounts will occur to support coffee, cocoa, and other crop development.











EAST-CENTRAL AFRICA (Ethiopia, Uganda, Kenya and Tanzania)
            Rain fell on a large part of western Ethiopia’s coffee producing region Monday with amounts suspected of being mostly light.  Isolated and light showers occurred in Uganda with mostly dry conditions occurring in Kenya and Tanzania.
            Daily showers and thunderstorms will occur from Uganda and western Kenya into Ethiopia coffee production regions through the next week. Rain will be light most often with some moderate and locally heavy rain expected periodically in western Ethiopia.  Northeastern Tanzania and south-central Kenya will see a few light showers from time-to-time while the Pare Region of Tanzania sees little significant rain. 

INDIA
            Scattered and light showers were suspected of occurring in coffee areas of southern India Monday.  Weather conditions are unlikely to change much for a while. The nation’s southern coffee areas will see periodic rainfall, but resulting rainfall will not be great enough to eliminate the need for irrigation.

INDONESIA
            Rain was restricted to a few light showers Monday as much of the archipelago was  dry.  As much as 2 millimeters of rain was reported in a few locations along the western coast of Sumatra and in central Java. 
            Scattered showers will occur regularly during the next week in Sumatra and central Sulawesi while western Java sees periodic rounds of showers.  Rain will continue to be restricted from eastern Java into Timor.







Seca provoca queda na produção de café em propriedades de MG 



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Houve queda nos estoques de grãos nas cooperativas do sul do estado.
Três cooperativas da região têm 20% menos grãos nos depósitos.

Do Globo Rural

 A colheita do café arábica está terminando em Minas Gerais. Houve grande quebra principalmente por causa da estiagem. Nas cooperativas do sul do estado, os estoques estão menores que os mantidos no mesmo período do ano passado.
O café é a principal fonte de renda na propriedade do agricultor Guilherme Miranda, em Três Pontas, no sul de Minas Gerais. No ano passado, a lavoura de 250 hectares rendeu sete mil sacas. Um cenário diferente em relação a este ano. O produtor colheu apenas quatro mil sacas e teve de vender 70% dos grãos para cobrir os custos de produção.
A queda na produção e a necessidade dos produtores em vender provocaram diminuição dos estoques das cooperativas em relação ao ano passado. O preço da saca, em torno de R$ 450, também tem incentivado as vendas do café. Em três das principais cooperativas da região, os depósitos têm dois milhões de sacas. São 20% a menos do que em 2013.
Em uma cooperativa de Três Pontas, todo o estoque de 2013 chegou a 1,2 milhão de sacas. Praticamente não havia mais espaço em seis armazéns. Já agora, com a colheita quase finalizada, o que foi entregue, somado à safra remanescente, só chega a 850 mil sacas.
“A moeda do sul de Minas é café. Quando essa safra diminui, diminuem os recursos que giram em torno do comércio, da indústria, da prestação de serviço e na economia de um modo geral”, avalia Nivaldo Melo Tavares, diretor da Cooperativa de Três Pontas.
Segundo o presidente do Centro do Comércio de Café de Minas Gerais, Archimedes Coli, com a safra menor e os estoques remanescentes praticamente esgotados, poderá faltar café para atender a demanda.
“Se nós levarmos em consideração que o Brasil tem uma demanda de 54 milhões de sacas durante o período de um ano, entre consumo interno e exportação, nós vamos ver que a safra que nós estamos colhendo agora de 45 ou 46 ou 47 milhões, porque os números também são divergentes, nós teremos um estoque exatamente para uma demanda de dez meses a 12 meses. Então, nos leva a conclusão que nós vamos chegar a safra de 2015 com os estoques praticamente zerados”, alerta Arquimedes Coli Neto, presidente do Centro de Comércio do Café.
Café: NY encerra em baixa com alta do dólar e previsões climáticas 



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Café: NY encerra em baixa com alta do dólar e previsões climáticas
Nesta segunda-feira (15), a Bolsa de Nova York (ICE Futures US) para o café arábica encerrou suas operações em baixa, influenciada pelavalorização do dólar ante o real. O vencimento dezembro/14 registrou 181,75 cents de dólar por libra peso, o março/15 fechou com 185,80 cents/lb, ambos com queda de 280 pontos. O vencimento maio/15 anotou 188,75 cents/lb e 225 pontos negativos e o julho/15 fechou 190,50 cents/lb e baixa de 220 pontos.
De acordo com o analista da Safras & Mercado, Gil Carlos Barabach, o  mercado permanece em queda influenciado pela questão cambial em meio à questões políticas e no longo prazo deve manter os números negativos com previsão de melhora nas condições climáticas. “O dólar mais alto estimula as exportações e o fator climático também deve ser dominante na segunda quinzena do mês, com chuvas previstas para esse período e as floradas chegando”, afirma.
Nas últimas semanas o arábica na Bolsa de Nova York teve quedas expressivas e agora busca acomodação. Segundo o analista, a força baixista vem perdendo o embalo sem novidades.
Segundo o analista, a divulgação da Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento (Conab) na última quinta-feira (18), que elevou a safra de 2015, atingindo 48,83 milhões de sacas de 60 kg, com aumento da produção de 9,6 por cento, também teve influência na Bolsa. “O mercado leu que a safra 2015 será maior que a safra atual e não que as estimativas tiveram aumento até porque esse número é bem menor que safras anteriores”, ressalta.
A Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento (Conab) divulga nesta terça-feira (16), o terceiro levantamento oficial da safra 2014, que já foi colhida. O levantamento é realizado com base em visitas de campo aos produtores rurais, diferente da perspectiva realizada pela Companhia na quinta.
Fonte: Notícias Agrícolas // Jhonatas Simião