Coffee, Sugar Rally on Dry Weather in Brazil

Alexandra Wexler

     Sugar and coffee prices rallied Friday on worries that unusually dry weather in Brazil could

crimp output in the world's biggest producer of both crops.

     The lack of moisture could hurt yields of sugar cane and coffee trees in Brazil, raising

questions about whether global sugar and coffee supplies will be tighter than expected. Current

forecasts show global production outstripping demand in both markets this year.

     "We've had some dry weather, and that's getting people more and more worried about the

production estimates," said Chris Narayanan, head of agricultural commodities research at Société

Générale in New York.

     Coffee futures were recently up 3.8% at $1.2450 a pound, the highest level since Aug. 16 on the

ICE Futures U.S. exchange. Raw-sugar futures were recently 3.7% higher at 15.56 cents a pound, a

two-week high for the most actively traded contract and up from Wednesday's 3 1/2-year settlement

low of 14.74 cents.

     "The drier-than-normal trend which began in December and worsened in January looks set to

continue as we move into February," said Michael McDougall, senior vice president at brokerage

Newedge in New York.

     Parts of Brazil are experiencing high temperatures. The unusually hot weather and the lack of

rains in some areas of the states of São Paulo and Minas Gerais has coffee farmers concerned, the

University of São Paulo's Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics said this week.

     The dry weather comes at a critical time for both crops. The sugar cane has been planted and

the arabica trees have started to produce cherries, the fruit that contains the beans used to make

coffee. Cane produces less sugar and coffee trees get stressed and can drop cherries if they don't

receive enough moisture.

     In addition, some trading houses have warned that Brazil's coffee crop could be smaller than

expected because the steady slide in prices for more than two years has encouraged growers to

heavily prune their trees and scale back on fertilizer.

     Still, world sugar production is expected to outpace demand by 4.7 million metric tons in the

year ending Sept. 30, according to the International Sugar Organization, and some traders expect

Brazil to reap a record coffee crop this year, even if some growers cut back.

For now, traders are focusing on the short-term outlook.

     Sterling Smith, a futures specialist at Citigroup in Chicago, said concerns about the weather

in Brazil over the next month could help arabica-coffee prices climb higher. "If February proves to

be unusually dry, we will see production losses and this should be supportive to prices," Mr. Smith

said.

Compras especulativas dão sustentação a bons ganhos na ICE

Os contratos futuros de café arábica negociados na ICE Futures US encerraram esta quinta-feira com bons ganhos, que permitiram fazer com que a posição março conseguisse sair da órbita do nível de 115,00 centavos e passasse a flutuar proximamente do patamar dos 120,00 centavos. Os ganhos vieram na esteira de ações de características técnicas, com especuladores e fundos se revezando no lado comprador desde o início do pregão e com as cotações chegando a tocar em máximas que não eram atingidas desde 14 de janeiro passado. Os operadores destacaram que o mercado também tem suas atenções voltadas para outros fatores importantes e que podem dar uma sustentação fundamental aos terminais.

Após a constatação de que o Brasil não terá uma super safra neste ano, os cálculos sobre a disponibilidade do grão tiveram uma mudança significativa, que ainda é mais aguda ao se levar em conta a retração constante dos estoques certificados, tanto na bolsa nova-iorquina como na londrina. Por outro lado, parte dos ganhos recentes pode também estar relacionado com a questão climática no Brasil, já que a onda de calor intenso e poucas chuvas poderá refletir no tamanho da safra e, principalmente, na qualidade dos grãos que começarão a ser colhidos em maio. Diante desse cenário intrincado, os vendedores se mostram muito mais cautelosos se comparado com o comportamento assistido no final do ano passado, por exemplo. Se naquele momento muitos players falavam na possibilidade de cotações em dois dígitos, neste momento já se avalia o março num novo patamar, provavelmente ao redor dos120,00 centavos.

No encerramento do dia em Nova Iorque, a posição março teve ganho de 290 pontos, com 120,00 centavos de dólar por libra peso, com a máxima em 120,55 centavos e a mínima de 117,15 centavos, com o maio registrando avanço de 290 pontos, com 122,05 centavos por libra, com a máxima em 122,50 centavos e a mínima em 119,15 centavos. Na Euronext/Liffe, o março teve alta de 30 dólares, com 1.774 dólares por tonelada, com o maio tendo valorização de 28 dólares, para o nível de 1.745 dólares por tonelada.

De acordo com analistas internacionais, o dia foi caracterizado por boas compras e recompras especulativas. As coberturas de posições short deram sustentação às altas desde a manhã, com a abertura do pregão sendo no patamar de 117,30 centavos, ao passo que ainda pela manhã o nível de 120,55 centavos foi testado. Os ganhos se mantiveram intactos ao longo da tarde, complementando uma sessão positiva para o café. No segmento externo, o dólar apresentou avanço em relação a várias moedas internacionais. Entretanto, caiu fortemente no confronto com o real brasileiro, o que limitou as vendas mais efetivas dessa origem. As bolsas de valores ganharam corpo nesta quinta-feira nos Estados Unidos, com destaque para a Nasdaq, que subiu cerca de 2%. Nas commodities, o complexo soft teve um dia de altas, com exceção do cacau, que recuou 0,2% ao final do dia.

"Tivemos uma sessão interessante, com boas alternativas no lado comprador. O mercado se mantém focado em aspectos referentes à disponibilidade, mas a questão climática no Brasil também ganha força. Se a safra esperada já não era tão efetiva quanto aquela anteriormente esperada, agora, com calor e poucas chuvas, já cresce o número de especialistas avaliando que a qualidade poderá ser comprometida", disse um trader.

O consumo de café deverá se manter em alta em 2014, de acordo com avaliação do USDA (Departamento de Agricultura dos Estados Unidos), que também crê em retração no volume de produção global. Após o arábica chegar a níveis máximos históricos em maio de 2011 - quando alcançou 343,00 centavos de dólar por libra -, os produtores passaram a buscar um aumento na produção do grão, algo que terminou em uma situação de superprodução durante os dois anos seguintes. De acordo com a agência de notícias Bloomberg, um levantamento efetuado junto a especialistas do setor indica uma previsão de que, até o final de 2014, a libra de arábica fique acima dos 126,00 centavos, enquanto em 2015 poderá ir para os 132,00 centavos, aproximadamente.

As exportações brasileiras no mês de janeiro, até o dia 28, totalizaram 1.823.965 sacas de café, queda de 3,54% em relação às 1.891.022 sacas embarcadas no mesmo período do mês anterior, de acordo com informações do Cecafé (Conselho dos Exportadores de Café do Brasil).

Os estoques certificados de café na bolsa de Nova Iorque tiveram queda de 3.389sacas, indo para 2.668.999 sacas.

Tecnicamente, o março na ICE Futures US tem resistência 120,55, 120,65, 120,90-121,00, 121,50,122,00, 122,50, 123,00, 123,50, 124,00, 124,50, 124,90-125,00 e 125,50 centavos de dólar, com o suporte 117,15, 117,00, 116,50, 116,35, 116,00, 115,50,115,10-115,00, 114,50, 114,00, 113,70, 113,50, 113,30, 113,15, 113,00 e 112,50 centavos.

Londres ganha corpo e bate na máxima de 44 dias

Os contratos futuros de café robusta negociados na Euronext/Liffe tiveram um diapositivo, com ganhos sendo observados e com a posição março se consolidando acima do nível referencial de 1.750 dólares. A evolução dos preços veio na esteira do bom comportamento dos arábicas em Nova Iorque e também da oferta limitada das origens, já que a grande maioria dos players do Vietnã está de lado, aproveitando as comemorações do ano novo lunar, Tet, que tem início oficialmente nesta sexta-feira.

De acordo com analistas internacionais, o dia foi bastante procurado. Mesmo com os vietnamitas de lado, o volume negociado aumentou substancialmente, principalmente com as ações de specs e fundos. A máxima do dia atingiu a marca de 1.782 dólares, melhor nível desde 17 de dezembro passado.

"Com pouca ação no lado vendedor e um fôlego interessante dos compradores, o mercado conseguiu evoluir e batemos em uma máxima de mais de um mês. As rolagens continuam a ser observadas e devem se tornar muito mais intensas a partir da próxima semana. Com poucas vendas de origens e com os arábicas também em ritmo animado, a tendência é buscarmos uma resistência efetiva, como é o caso dos1.800 dólares", disse um trader.

O março teve uma movimentação ao longo do dia de 9,45 mil contratos, contra 6,88mil do maio. O spread entre as posições março e maio ficou em 29 dólares.

No encerramento do dia, o março teve alta de 30 dólares, com 1.774 dólares por tonelada, com o maio tendo valorização de 28 dólares, para o nível de 1.745dólares por tonelada.

ICE Coffee Bulls Fight Back Uptrend Intact -- Technical Analysis Kira Brecht

Kira Brecht

   ICE March coffee bulls have pushed the market higher for the second day in a row as coffee shrugs

off its latest minor corrective pullback phase. The near- and intermediate-term bull trends remain

intact on the daily chart.

ICE March coffee recently traded up 265 points at $1.1975 a pound.

   The ICE coffee market remains in the midst of a substantial multi-month bull trend pattern, after

major bear market action since the spring of 2011. The longer-term bear trend still remains

dominant, but the bulls have made significant progress since November 2013.

   The moving average picture has improved greatly in recent weeks and the ICE March contract is now

trading above its 20-day, 40-day, and 100-day moving averages, which is considered bullish by

trend-following traders.

   A clear pattern of higher highs and higher daily lows is seen off the November 2013 low. The most

recent swing low comes in at $1.1315, hit on Jan. 27, and that is important nearby support.

   On the upside, the bulls are targeting a retest of the Jan. 7 swing high at $1.2260. Beyond there

lies the all-important 200-day moving average at $1.2384, which will be a significant ceiling. ICE

March coffee has been trading below its 200-day moving average since early 2012.

   Daily momentum is pointing higher. The nine-day relative-strength index stood at 63% on Thursday

and is rising. The bulls are in position to test the $1.2260-to-$1.2384 zone near term.

   The 200-day moving average may be a tough ceiling to crack, at least on the first attempt. But

the bulls retain control of the near- and medium-term trends and are gearing up for a test of that

zone.

Brazil Coffee Weather - Jan 31

SAO PAULO AND MINAS GERAIS

SUMMARY- Mostly dry or a few light showers during the past 24 hours.

Temperatures 82-91F (28-33C).

FORECAST-

TODAY...Mostly dry or a few light showers. Temperatures 82-91F (28-33C).

TONIGHT...Mostly dry conditions or a few light showers. Temperatures 61-69F

(16-21C).

TOMORROW...Mostly dry or a few light showers. Temperatures 82-91F (28-33C).

OUTLOOK...Mostly dry or a few light showers Sunday through Tuesday.

Temperatures near to above normal.

BRAZIL COFFEE PROSPECTS...

Mostly above normal temperatures and limited rainfall during the next 5 days

will deplete soil moisture and increase stress.

Southeast Asia Coffee Weather - Jan 31

INDONESIA

SUMMARY- Scattered tropical showers and thundershowers yesterday. Rainfall

amounts 0.10-1.50+ inches (3-38+ mm). Temperatures 75 to 95F (24 to 35C).

FORECAST-

TODAY...Scattered shower and thundershower activity, 0.10-1.50+ inches (3-38+

mm). Temperatures 75 to 94F (24 to 34C).

TONIGHT...Showers diminish overnight.

TOMORROW...Patchy rain, showers and thundershowers, 0.10-1.25+ inches (3-32+

mm). Temperatures 76 to 94F (24 to 34C).

OUTLOOK...Periodic showers and a patchy t-showers Sunday through Tuesday.

Temperatures variable.

VIETNAM

SUMMARY- Dry most areas yesterday. Temperatures 72 to 88F (22 to 31C).

FORECAST-

TODAY...Mostly dry. Temperatures 73 to 89F (24 to 32C).

TONIGHT...Continuing dry overnight.

TOMORROW...Mainly dry. Temperatures 75 to 90F (24 to 32C).

OUTLOOK...A few showers developing in central areas, dry elsewhere Sunday

through Tuesday. Temperatures trending warmer.

THAILAND

SUMMARY- Generally dry yesterday. Temperatures 84 to 94F (29 to 34C).

FORECAST-

TODAY...Mainly dry weather continues. Temperatures 84 to 95F (29 to 35C).

TONIGHT...Mostly dry overnight.

TOMORROW...Dry in the region. Temperatures 85 to 96F (29 to 36C).

OUTLOOK...The dry pattern persists Sunday through Tuesday. Temperatures

mostly above normal.

SOUTHEAST ASIA COFFEE

CROP IMPACT- Rain and showers in portions of the coffee areas of Indonesia,

although somewhat lighter the past several days. The rainfall is mostly

beneficial. No major concerns at this time.

Colombia/Ecuador Coffee Weather - Jan 31

COLOMBIA AND ECUADOR

SUMMARY- Partly cloudy with widely scattered showers and a few thundershowers

during the past 24 hours. Temperatures 77-97F (25-36C).

FORECAST-

TODAY...Partly cloudy with scattered to widely scattered afternoon and

evening showers and thundershowers. Temperatures 76-96F (24-36C).

TONIGHT...Mostly dry or a few light showers. Temperatures 66-76F (19-24C).

TOMORROW...Partly cloudy with scattered to widely scattered afternoon and

evening showers and thundershowers. Temperatures 77-96F (25-36C).

OUTLOOK...Partly cloudy with scattered to widely scattered afternoon showers

and thundershowers Sunday through Tuesday. Temperatures near to a little above

normal.

COLOMBIA COFFEE PROSPECTS...

The main crop harvest is winding down. The mid crop is developing.

Mexico/Central America Coffee Weather - Jan 31

MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA

SUMMARY- A few light showers through southeast Mexico and through northern

Central America otherwise mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures

54-87F (12-31C).

FORECAST-

TODAY...Mostly dry except for a few light showers through southeast Mexico

and northern Central America. Temperatures 65-87F (18-31C).

TONIGHT...Mostly dry weather. Temperatures 29-73F (-2 to 23C).

TOMORROW...Mostly dry except for a few light showers through northern Central

America. Temperatures 68-87F (20-31C).

OUTLOOK...Mostly dry weather Sunday through Tuesday but a few light showers

may fall across eastern Mexico Monday. Temperatures near to above normal.

MEXICO COFFEE PROSPECTS...

Mostly favorable conditions for the ongoing harvest.

East Africa Coffee Weather - Jan 31

EAST AFRICA

SUMMARY- Spotty showers and a few t-showers in Tanzania and Uganda yesterday,

0.10-0.60 inch (3-15 mm). Mostly dry elsewhere. Temperatures 73 to 100F (23 to

38C).

FORECAST-

TODAY...Periodic showers and t-showers mainly in southwest locales,

0.10-0.60+ inch (3-15+ mm). Generally dry elsewhere. Temperatures 74 to 101F

(23 to 38C).

TONIGHT...Becoming mostly dry overnight.

TOMORROW...Patchy showers/t-showers likely in southwest areas, 0.10-0.60+

inch (3-15+ mm). Mostly dry elsewhere. Temperatures 73 to 101F (23 to 38C).

OUTLOOK...On and off showers/t-showers in southwest and a few west-central

locales Sunday through Tuesday, mostly dry elsewhere. Temperatures near to a

bit above normal this period.

EAST AFRICA COFFEE

CROP IMPACT- Recent tropical activity producing locally heavy rain/showers and

some flooding in portions of the Madagascar coffee regions. Elsewhere,

scattered showers mainly in the southern coffee areas of east Africa at this

time. The north region is increasing need of rainfall.

West Africa Coffee Weather - Jan 31

WEST AFRICA

SUMMARY- Pop-up showers/t-showers across portions of the south and east

yesterday, 0.10-0.60 inch (3-15 mm). Dry most elsewhere. Temperatures 87 to

101F (31 to 38C).

FORECAST-

TODAY...Showers/t-showers in south-central and southern and eastern areas,

0.10-60+ inch (3-15+ mm). No significant precipitation elsewhere. Temperatures

84 to 101F (29 to 38C).

TONIGHT...Becoming mostly dry overnight.

TOMORROW...Patchy showers and t-showers in south-central and southeast

locales, 0.10-60 inch (3-15 mm). Generally dry elsewhere. Temperatures 82 to

102F (28 to 39C).

OUTLOOK...A few isolated showers in the southeast. Becoming mostly dry

elsewhere Sunday through Tuesday. Temperatures warmer most areas.

WEST AFRICA COFFEE

CROP IMPACT- Spotty showers and brief thundershowers recently. However, more

significant rainfall would be beneficial for trees in the coffee regions of

west Africa. Yet, it is normally dry at this time of year, with no serious

concerns at this time.