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sexta-feira, 28 de fevereiro de 2014

Early Ag Weather Watch - Feb 28


EARLY LOOK WEATHER REPORT

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:
HIGH THU...84 AT THERMAL CA
LOW  THU...36 BELOW ZERO AT CRANE LAKE MN AND KABETOGAMA MN
24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 06:00 PM CT...LOS ANGELES CA  1.07 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

The US and European models are in fair to good agreement during the next 5-7
days, only fair agreement during days 8-10. I am using a compromise between the
models as it concerns the 8-10 day period but with a slight bias towards the US
model.
The short range maps, days 1-5, first deal with the extreme cold event
currently moving over the central US region and then deal with a major snow and
ice storm set up for the eastern and southern Midwest and northern Delta areas.

The longer range maps from today's US model shows some moderation in
temperatures early in the 6-10 day period but with more cold weather possible
late in the period...especially over the Midwest region. Precipitation light to
locally moderate will favor the east and south Midwest and the Delta. The
European model suggests the moderation in temperatures lasts longer into the
6-10 day period and the cooler conditions at the end of the period are not as
cold looking as on the US model. Precipitation mostly light and confined to the
east and south Midwest and Delta. Neither model shows anything of significance
for the central/south plains wheat belt during the 6-10 day period. The US
model has some precipitation during days 1-3 while the European models is even
lighter then that.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

ARGENTINA: Mostly dry weather with a warming trend during the 6 day period.
This will favor developing crops, after recent heavy rains. A possible
exception to this is over eastern Buenos Aires where a few thunderstorms may
develop, associated with an upper level trough.

BRAZIL SOYBEANS/CORN: Periodic scattered showers and seasonal temperatures will
favor filling crops and early developing second crop corn. Local delays
continue for harvesting the early crops and planting the second crop corn due
to showers. The pattern does not look as wet during the coming days which
should allow for some improvement, except of course in areas impacted by local
thundershowers.

BRAZIL COFFEE, CITRUS, SUGARCANE AREAS: A cold front moves into the main crop
areas today and drifts through the north and east areas tomorrow and Sunday.
This should lead to light to moderate showers which will help ease stress to
developing crops. Somewhat drier and hotter weather may redevelop early next
week. The next chance for scattered showers appears to be late in the week.

CENTRAL/SOUTH PLAINS: Scattered light to locally moderate precipitation during
this weekend will favor dormant winter wheat. Only minor concerns for livestock
areas of the western plains.

MIDWEST: Extreme cold continues to greatly increase usage of natural gas for
heating during the next 5-6 days. Somewhat less cold is possible after that. A
major snow and ice event is shaping up for the southern and eastern Midwest and
the northern Delta region for the weekend period. This likely impacts travel
and transport for these locations. Somewhat less snow is expected in Iowa,
especially northern Iowa, with this system. It does not appear cold enough to
harm Soft Red Wheat in areas that do not have a protective snow cover.

SOUTH AFRICA: Warm to hot temperatures today will be followed by scattered
showers and thundershowers during the weekend period and early next week. This
is mostly a favorable weather pattern for filling maize and developing
sugarcane.

CHINA: Moderate to locally heavy snow and rain has occurred through central and
southern winter wheat areas of eastern China and through most winter rapeseed
areas during February. This will help to replenish soil moisture and it will
favor crops when they break dormancy in the spring. Snow to the north was not
as heavy but still fairly significant for this time of the year. Snow and ice
and to a lesser extent rain will have delayed transportation somewhat. The
weather pattern currently favors additional chances for snow or rain through
the Yangtze river valley and the southern part of the North China Plain.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES/FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

WEST: Dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged much, much below
normal yesterday.

EAST: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged below to much
below normal.

Forecast....

WEST: Chance for light snow or snow showers later today or during tonight,
favoring northern areas. Light to locally moderate snow may develop through
central and southern areas during Saturday. Snow and mixed precipitation may
continue during Sunday for Missouri while the balance of the region is drier.
Temperatures averaged much, much below normal. The average of the high and low
this Sunday may be 30 degrees or more below normal.
Mostly dry Monday. Dry or with only a little light snow in northern areas
Tuesday and Wednesday. The extreme cold continues Monday and early Tuesday, not
as cold but still well below normal later Tuesday and during Wednesday.

EAST: Dry or with only a few afternoon snow showers today. Light snow may occur
through northern and western areas during Saturday or Saturday night. Heavier
snow and freezing rain is expected during Sunday, Sunday night and early
Monday. Precipitation totals are expected to reach 0.50-1.50 inches either side
of the Ohio river with heavy snow or a major ice storm possible. Precipitation
of 0.25 inch or more may reach north to just south of Chicago and Detroit.
Temperatures average much, much below normal during this period.
Snow may linger through southeast areas early Monday, dry later Monday. Dry
or with only a little light snow or snow showers Tuesday and Wednesday.
Temperatures average well below normal during this period.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average below normal during this
period. Precipitation should average near to above normal through the south and
east areas, near to below normal northwest.

Forecast: Mostly dry or with only a few scattered snow showers today. Chance
for light to locally moderate snow, ice and rain showers during Saturday and
early Sunday. Precipitation totals likely average 0.10-0.50 inch through
eastern areas, mostly 0.10 inch or less through the west. Temperatures average
below normal north and above normal south today, below normal north and central
areas and above normal south Saturday, below or well below normal Sunday.
Mostly dry Monday and Tuesday. Dry or with only a few light showers during
Wednesday. Temperatures average well below normal Monday, below or well below
normal Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday.

6-10 Day Outlook...Temperatures are expected to vary somewhat during this
period. Precipitation averages near to below normal.

Brazil (Corn, Soybeans, Citrus, Coffee, Sugarcane)

Summary...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana: Scattered light to moderate showers were reported
in eastern Parana yesterday. Mostly dry elsewhere in the region during the past
24 hours. Temperatures averaged near normal in northern Parana, below normal
elsewhere in the region.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and Goias: A few thundershowers occurred yesterday or
overnight last night in Mato Grosso and western Goias. Mostly dry elsewhere in
the region. Temperatures averaged near to below normal in MGDS, near to above
normal elsewhere in the region.

Sao Paulo/Minas Gerais: Mostly dry yesterday. Scattered showers and
thundershowers have moved into Sao Paulo overnight. Temperatures averaged above
normal yesterday. Highs averaging 90-95F (32-35C) in most areas.

Forecast...

Rio Grande do Sul, Parana, MGDS: Mostly dry today and Saturday. Chance for a
few light to locally moderate showers Sunday or Sunday night. Temperatures
average below normal today, near to below normal Saturday, near to above normal
Sunday.
Scattered light to moderate showers and thundershowers are possible Monday
and Tuesday. Drier in the south, lingering showers and thundershowers north,
during Wednesday. Temperatures average near to below normal south, near to
above normal north.

Sao Paulo/Minas Gerais: Scattered light to moderate showers and thundershowers,
0.25-0.75 inch (6-20 mm) and locally heavier, develop in Sao Paulo today and
move into Minas Gerais tonight or during Saturday. A few light showers with
locally heavier may linger in the region Sunday. Temperatures average near to
above normal today, near to below normal tomorrow, near to above normal Sunday.

Mostly dry or with only a few light showers during Monday. Scattered showers
during Tuesday and Wednesday will mainly occur in west and south Sao Paulo.
Temperatures average near to above normal Monday through Wednesday.

Argentina (Corn, Soybean, Wheat)

Summary...Cordoba, Sante Fe, Buenos Aires, La Pampa.

Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged below normal
yesterday.

Forecast...

Mostly dry or with only a few light showers through eastern Buenos Aires
during today through Sunday. Temperatures may turn warmer today and Saturday,
cooler again Sunday.
A few showers and thundershowers may develop in eastern Buenos Aires Monday
and early Tuesday. Drier again later Tuesday and during Wednesday. The balance
of the region continues mostly dry or with only a few very light showers Monday
through Wednesday. Temperatures average near to above normal in the west, near
to below normal east.

Joel Burgio



Entrevista com José Braz Matiello - Eng. Agrônomo Fund. Procafé

Minas Gerais completa 60 dias sem chuvas e grãos de café que não foram formados, por conta da seca, não podem ser recuperados. Chuvas satisfatórias são previstas para daqui a 10 dias e prejuízos devem continuar avançando, principalmente em lavouras mais novas.

Commodities Market Impact Weather: Snow and Ice in Midwest

  OMAHA - A snow and ice storm for the Midwest and mostly favorable trends in South America are the
primary weather items for the commodity trade's attention Friday.
MIDWEST SNOW AND ICE STORM
  The DTN ag weather forecast calls for extreme cold in the Midwest to greatly increase usage of
natural gas for heating during the next five to six days. Somewhat less cold weather is possible
after that. A major snow and ice event is shaping up for the southern and eastern Midwest and the
northern Delta region for the weekend. This likely will disrupt travel and transportation for these
locations. Somewhat less snow is expected in Iowa, especially northern Iowa, with this system. It
does not appear cold enough to harm soft red winter wheat in areas that do not have a protective
snow cover.
LIGHT SOUTHERN PLAINS WEEKEND MOISTURE
  Southern Plains wheat areas will see scattered light to locally moderate precipitation during this
weekend, which will favor dormant winter wheat. The upcoming storm system is expected to generate
only minor concerns for livestock areas of the western Plains.
SCATTERED BRAZIL ROW-CROP AREA SHOWERS
  Across Brazil's row-crop areas, periodic scattered showers and seasonal temperatures will favor
filling crops and early-developing second crop corn. Local delays continue for harvesting the early
crops and planting the second crop corn due to showers. The pattern does not look as wet during the
coming days, which should allow for some improvement, except in areas affected by local
thundershowers.
WEEKEND SHOWERS IN BRAZIL COFFEE AREAS
  A cold front moves into the main Brazil coffee and sugar cane areas Friday and drifts through the
north and east areas during the weekend. This should lead to light to moderate showers which will
help ease stress to developing crops. Somewhat drier and hotter weather may redevelop early next
week. The next chance for scattered showers appears to be late in the week.
DRY AND WARM IN ARGENTINA
  Central Argentina will have mostly dry weather with a warming trend during the six-day period.
This will favor developing crops, after recent heavy rains. A possible exception to this is over
eastern Buenos Aires where a few thunderstorms may develop.
FAVORABLE CHINA SOIL MOISTURE
  Moderate to locally heavy snow and rain has occurred through central and southern winter wheat
areas of eastern China and through most winter rapeseed areas during February. This will help to
replenish soil moisture and it will favor crops when they break dormancy in the spring. Snow to the
north was not as heavy, but still fairly significant for this time of the year. Snow and ice, and to
a lesser extent rain, will delay transportation somewhat. The weather pattern currently favors
additional chances for snow or rain through the Yangtze River valley and the southern part of the
North China Plain.
WEEKEND RAINFALL FOR SOUTH AFRICA
  Across South Africa, warm to hot weather Friday will be followed by scattered showers and
thundershowers during the weekend and early next week. This is mostly a favorable weather pattern
for filling maize and developing sugarcane.

Robusta Coffee Gains; Vietnamese Supply Tight -- Market Talk

Robusta coffee futures are higher, with Liffe's March contract up 0.3% on the
day at $2,105/tonne. "Movement [of coffee] from Vietnam continues to be slow as domestic prices,
while improved, are not high enough to generate much in the way of product flows," says Sterling
Smith, a futures specialist at Citigroup. "Vietnamese producers are willing to hold beans, as when
Arabica supplies begin to tighten roasters may be inclined to blend more Robusta." Arabica is a more
expensive coffee bean, used in gourmet blends. The majority of robusta production is used for
intstant coffee powders.

With arabica, sugar volatile, ICE tweaks trading limit rules
Reuters - Feb 27, 2014 

ICE Futures U.S. on Thursday broadened its rules designed to limit volatility for the second time in a week, as its coffee and raw sugar markets face unusual volatility, with arabica marking its biggest monthly surge in 20 years.

The exchange said it will reject limit orders placed outside of the maximum trading range designed to prevent "fat finger errors" by errant traders starting March 10. The amendment to the rule, called a reasonability limit, means that any limit order to sell below the limit or to buy above it, at the time the order is entered, will be rejected.

Currently, certain conditions allow some of these orders to be accepted.

This latest revision comes just a week after the exchange raised the reasonability limit levels for its arabica coffee futures contracts as the market became increasingly volatile, with speculative buying pouring into the market on concern about drought damage in top grower Brazil.

Café tem nova alta e posição maio fica próxima dos 180 cents na ICE

Os contratos futuros de café arábica negociados na ICE Futures US encerraram esta quinta-feira com altas, com a posição maio, mais uma vez, voltando a flutuar num patamar próximo ao nível psicológico de 180,00centavos. Diante das fortes volatilidades recentes, o que se verificou na casa de comercialização norte-americana ao longo do dia foi digno de se classificar como calma. Os preços não variaram de forma tão intensa e, ao longo de boa parte do pregão, o maio tendeu a gravitar perto do referencial psicológico. Mais uma vez, o clima esteve na ordem do dia dos operadores. Algumas chuvas são esperadas para o cinturão cafeeiro do Brasil no final de semana e também nos feriados de Carnaval, mas poucos se arriscam em avaliar se essas precipitações serão suficientes para interromper o atual déficit hídrico, que afeta sobremaneira o enchimento dos grãos. Independentemente disso, os participantes também já trabalham com cenários de cálculo de perdas. Quase que a maioria dos agrônomos e especialistas afirma que a quebra é irreversível, mas ainda não se tem um percentual de quanto será a diminuição da safra. Por sua vez, também existe o problema da qualidade. Várias regiões do Brasil observam que os grão sem formação estão com tamanhos menores que os tradicionais e não são poucas as áreas cafeeiras que aferem um número grande de grãos chochos, cujo valor de mercado é muito menor.


No encerramento do dia em Nova Iorque, a posição maio teve alta de 160 pontos, com 179,30 centavos de dólar por libra peso, com a máxima em 180,70 centavos e a mínima de 176,40 centavos, com o julho registrando ganho de 155 pontos, com 181,20 centavos por libra, com a máxima em 182,45 centavos e a mínima em 178,40 centavos. Na Euronext/Liffe, o março teve alta de 78 dólares, com 2.099 dólares por tonelada, com o maio tendo valorização de 38 dólares, para o nível de 2.034 dólares por tonelada.

De acordo com analistas internacionais, o dia apresentou um caráter menos intenso, até com algum viés consolidativo. Diante da manutenção das incertezas, alguns desses especialistas avaliaram que o nível de 180,00centavos pode ser um "porto seguro" para alguns players, que não se sentem muito afeitos a liquidar, já que poderiam ser surpreendidos com números de disponibilidade ainda mais severos que os ventilados, mas que também crêem que não conveniente ficar comprando de maneira exacerbada. No segmento externo, o dia foi de alta para as bolsas de valores nos Estados Unidos e queda do dólar ante uma cesta de moedas internacionais. Nas commodities softs, alta para praticamente todas as matérias-primas.

"As dúvidas se mantêm recorrentes sobre a extensão dos prejuízos nas lavouras brasileiras de café. Vamos ter um efeito na disponibilidade global do grão e, com a provável ocorrência de um déficit da oferta, os estoques deverão recuar ainda mais. Lembrando que os volumes armazenados já se encontram num viés de baixa, notadamente os certificados nas bolsas de Nova Iorque e Londres. E a tendência, em geral, é de terminais em alta quando os estoques se mostram baixos", disse um trader.

As remessas internacionais para diversos destinos de café do Vietnã deverão apresentar alta de 60% em volume e de 36% em receita neste mês de fevereiro, na comparação com o mesmo período de 2013, de acordo com cálculos do Escritório de Estatísticas Gerais do Vietnã. Em volume, as vendas para o exterior deverão somar 160 mil toneladas no mês, e em receita, 298 milhões de dólares. Em janeiro, o Vietnã embarcou 143 mil toneladas, ao passo que a receita cambial somou 265 milhões de dólares. No acumulado da safra atual (01de outubro de 2013 a 31 de janeiro), o Vietnã embarcou 580 mil toneladas de café, contra 706 mil toneladas vendidas para o exterior no período anterior. A receita acumulada soma 1,084 bilhão de dólares, 38,7% a menos que os 1,494 bilhão do mesmo período de 2012/2013.

As exportações brasileiras de café no mês de fevereiro, até o dia 26, totalizaram  1.680.031 sacas, alta de 6,39% em relação às1.579.490 sacas embarcadas no mesmo período do mês anterior, de acordo com informações do Cecafé (Conselho dos Exportadores de Café do Brasil).

Os estoques certificados de café na bolsa de Nova Iorque tiveram queda de 2.475 sacas, indo para 2.624.503 sacas.

Tecnicamente, o maio na ICE Futures US tem resistência180,70, 181,00, 181,25, 181,50, 182,00, 182,50, 183,00, 183,50-183,60, 184,00,184,50, 184,90-185,00, 185,50, 186,00 e 186,50 centavos de dólar, com o suporte em 176,40, 176,00, 175,50, 175,00, 174,50, 174,00, 173,50, 173,00, 172,50,172,00, 171,50, 171,05-171,00, 170,50, 170,10-170,00, 169,70, 169,50, 169,00 e168,50 centavos.




Londres mantém ritmo positivo e fica acima dos US$ 2 mil

Os contratos futuros de café robusta negociados na Euronext/Liffe encerraram esta quinta-feira com altas, mais uma vez com aposição maio gravitando proximamente do nível especulativo de 2.000 dólares. O volume comercializado se manteve perto da média recente da bolsa londrina, que continua a dar a demonstração de ter um mercado sustentado e com possibilidade de até mesmo buscar níveis mais consistentes.


De acordo com analistas internacionais, o dia foi caracterizado por uma tentativa inicial de pressão aos preços, no entanto, o máximo conseguido pelos vendedores foi levar o maio até a mínima de 1.998dólares. A partir daí, várias compras especulativas passaram a ser identificadas, com a máxima atingindo 2.042 dólares. Algumas vendas ligeiras foram identificadas nesse nível, mas não o suficiente para inverter o quadro.

"Continuamos a acompanhar, ainda que a uma certa distância, o que ocorre com os arábicas em Nova Iorque. Aqueles cafés subiram bem mais que os robustas, mas, esse movimento permitiu que a volta dos vietnamitas às mesas de comercialização não produzissem pressão. Pelo contrário, as cotações voltaram a ganhar corpo e o nível de 2 mil dólares foi buscado. Efetivamente, o temor com a quebra de safra do Brasil reflete positivamente também nos preços em Londres", disse um trader.

O março teve uma movimentação ao longo do dia de 2,07 mil contratos, contra 10,9 mil do maio. O spread entre as posições março e maio ficou em 65 dólares.

No encerramento do dia, o março teve alta de 78 dólares, com2.099 dólares por tonelada, com o maio tendo valorização de 38 dólares, para o nível de 2.034 dólares por tonelada.

quinta-feira, 27 de fevereiro de 2014

Early Ag Weather Watch - Feb 27


EARLY LOOK WEATHER REPORT

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:
HIGH WED...88 AT FORT LAUDERDALE FL AND POMPANO BEACH FL
LOW  WED...25 BELOW ZERO AT CLARK WY AND SHIRLEY BASIN WY
24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 06:00 PM CT...NEW ORLEANS LA 1.85 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

The US and European models are in fair to good agreement during the next 10
days. I am using a compromise between the models today. The strong secondary
arctic surge that the US model has been forecasting for the plains and Midwest
regions behind the snow storm this weekend is now somewhat weaker and further
to the east.
The short range maps, days 1-5, first show the extreme cold event continuing
for the next few days and then show the moderate to heavy precipitation event
developing over the southeast plains and the southwest Midwest before moving
through the Delta, the south and east Midwest regions.
The longer range maps, days 6-10, continue to show the high latitude
blocking ridge located northwest of Alaska. We see the strong polar vortex over
northern Canada during this period. A weak ridge is expected to develop over
the western US, mostly later in the period. A broad trough is located either
side of the Miss river. This is a cold pattern for Canada and the northern tier
of U.S. states. This is a somewhat warmer pattern for the southern U.S. region
and variable elsewhere in the U.S. Precipitation chances look to be highest
from the lower Miss and Ohio river valleys to the east coast.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

ARGENTINA: Mostly dry weather with a warming trend during the 6 day period.
This will favor developing crops, after recent heavy rains.

BRAZIL SOYBEANS/CORN: Periodic scattered showers and seasonal temperatures will
favor filling crops and early developing second crop corn. Local delays
continue for harvesting the early crops and planting the second crop corn due
to showers. The pattern does not look as wet during the coming days which
should allow for some improvement, except of course in areas impacted by local
thundershowers.

BRAZIL COFFEE, CITRUS, SUGARCANE AREAS: A weakening cold front will drift into
the very dry areas of eastern Sao Paulo and western Minas Gerais during this
weekend. This may allow for scattered light showers with isolated heavier. This
should help ease stress to crops, somewhat. However, more rain will be needed
to end concerns and to prevent further declines in crop prospects. The next
chance for scattered showers to occur appears to be later next week.

CENTRAL/SOUTH PLAINS: Scattered light to locally moderate precipitation during
this weekend will favor dormant winter wheat. Only minor concerns for livestock
areas of the western plains.

MIDWEST: Extreme cold continues to greatly increase usage of natural gas for
heating during the next 5-6 days. Somewhat less cold is possible after that. A
major snow and ice event is shaping up for the southern and eastern Midwest and
the northern Delta region for the weekend period. This likely impacts travel
and transport for these locations. Somewhat less snow is expected in Iowa,
especially northern Iowa, with this system. It does not appear cold enough to
harm Soft Red Wheat in areas that do not have a protective snow cover.

SOUTH AFRICA: Warm to hot temperatures today and Friday will be followed by
scattered showers and thundershowers during the weekend period. This is mostly
a favorable weather pattern for filling maize and developing sugarcane.

CHINA: Moderate to locally heavy snow and rain has occurred through central and
southern winter wheat areas of eastern China and through most winter rapeseed
areas during February. This will help to replenish soil moisture and it will
favor crops when they break dormancy in the spring. Snow to the north was not
as heavy but still fairly significant for this time of the year. Snow and ice
and to a lesser extent rain will have delayed transportation somewhat. The
weather pattern currently favors additional chances for snow or rain through
the Yangtze river valley and the southern part of the North China Plain.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES/FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

WEST: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged at least 15 to
25 degrees below normal yesterday.

EAST: Snow showers and a few squalls occurred in northern areas during the past
24 hours. Dry elsewhere in the region. Temperatures averaged 20-25 degrees
below normal.

Forecast....

WEST: Dry today. Chance for light snow or snow showers during Friday. Mainly
dry north, chance for snow south, during Saturday. Temperatures average well
below normal.
Snow may linger through in Missouri and southeast Iowa during Sunday. Dry
Monday. Dry or with only a little light precipitation in the north during
Tuesday. Temperatures average well below normal during this period.

EAST: Mostly dry today. Dry or with only a little light snow or snow showers
during Friday and Saturday. Temperatures average well below normal.
Snow or freezing rain is expected during Sunday and Sunday night. Heavy
precipitation may occur, favoring southern and eastern areas. Snow may linger
in the east, drier west, during Monday. Dry or with only a little light
precipitation Tuesday. Temperatures average well below normal during this
period.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average below to near normal
during this period. Precipitation should average near to above normal through
the south and east areas, near to below normal northwest.

Central/Southern Plains (Winter Wheat)

Summary: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged well below
normal. Lows yesterday morning ranged from -7 in southwest Nebraska to +34 in
northeast Texas, normals would be 17-41F.

Forecast: Mostly dry today. Dry or with only a little light precipitation
through northwest areas during Friday. Scattered light to locally moderate
precipitation is expected during Saturday into Sunday. The heaviest of this
activity should favor the eastern areas. Dry or with only a little light
precipitation during Monday through Wednesday. Temperatures average below
normal today, below normal north and above normal south tomorrow and Saturday,
below or well below normal Sunday and Monday, below normal Tuesday, near normal
west and below normal east Wednesday.

6-10 Day Outlook...Temperatures are expected to average below to near normal
north, near to above normal south. Precipitation averages near to above normal
through southeast locations, near to below normal through north and southwest
areas.

Brazil (Corn, Soybeans, Citrus, Coffee, Sugarcane)

Summary...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, 0.30-1.50
inches (8-38 mm) and locally heavier, occurred in RGDS and Santa Catarina
during the past 24 hours. Only a few light showers in Parana during this time.
Temperatures averaged near to below normal yesterday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and Goias: A few light showers with isolated heavier in Mato
Grosso and southeast MGDS during the past 24 hours. Little elsewhere in the
region. Temperatures averaged near to slightly above normal.

Sao Paulo/Minas Gerais: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures
averaged above normal yesterday.

Forecast...

Rio Grande do Sul, Parana, MGDS: Scattered light showers with locally heavier
will favor eastern and northern areas today while the southwest turns drier.
Mostly dry tomorrow and Saturday. Temperatures average near to below normal
south and near to above normal north during this period.
A few showers and thundershowers may occur in MGDS during Sunday, dry
elsewhere in the region Sunday. Scattered to widely scattered light showers
with locally heavier during Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures average mostly
near normal south, near to above normal north.

Sao Paulo/Minas Gerais: Mostly dry or with only a few light showers through
extreme west and south areas today. Chance for a few showers and thundershowers
during Friday, mostly in western areas but a few may occur in the east as well.
Scattered to widely scattered light showers during Saturday. Temperatures
average above normal today and Friday, near to above normal Saturday.
Scattered to widely scattered and mostly light showers linger in the region
Sunday and possibly early Monday. Drier later Monday. Chance for showers west,
fair east, during Tuesday. Temperatures average near to above normal Sunday,
above normal Monday and Tuesday.

Argentina (Corn, Soybean, Wheat)

Summary...Cordoba, Sante Fe, Buenos Aires, La Pampa.

Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged below normal
yesterday.

Forecast...

Dry today. Dry or with only a few very light showers during Friday or
Saturday. Temperatures trend a little warmer today and Friday. Cooler in the
south, continued warmer north, during Saturday.
Mostly dry or with only a few light showers Sunday through Tuesday.
Temperatures average near to below normal Sunday, warmer Monday and Tuesday.

Joel Burgio

Brazil Coffee Weather - Feb 27

SAO PAULO AND MINAS GERAIS

SUMMARY- Mostly dry or a few light showers during the past 24 hours.
Temperatures 82-90F (29-32C).

FORECAST-
TODAY...Mostly dry conditions or a few light showers. Temperatures 82-90F
(28-32C).
TONIGHT...Mostly dry conditions. Temperatures 61-70F (16-21C).
TOMORROW...Mostly dry conditions or a few light showers. Temperatures 81-90F
(27-32C).
OUTLOOK...Scattered light showers, locally heavier Saturday and Sunday,
scattered showers and thundershowers Monday. Temperatures near to above normal
during this period.

BRAZIL COFFEE PROSPECTS...

Mostly above normal temperatures and limited rainfall during the next 5 days
will deplete soil moisture and increase stress. Some production losses are
possible. Some increase in showers is possible next week.

ICE Coffee Testing Weekly Trendline -- Technical Analysis
Dow Jones - Kira Brecht

  ICE May coffee futures pushed higher Wednesday, as the bulls continue to propel the market to
stronger price levels. Since late January, ICE May coffee has rocketed over 56% higher. The action
has turned the near and medium term trends firmly bullish in recent weeks. But, the market is now
bumping up against a long-term trendline drawn on the weekly continuation chart that could act as
resistance.
  ICE May coffee recently traded up 150 points at $1.7775, down from Tuesday's intraday peak at
$1.8125 a pound.
  Technically, the market has swept higher in recent weeks smashing through all significant moving
average resistance points on the daily chart. The ICE May coffee contract is now trading above all
important moving averages from the 20-day to the 200-day, which is a bullish signal generally for
the trend following crowd.
  The market, however, is overbought on both daily and weekly momentum indicators, but that is not a
surprise given the massive rally move seen since late January. Strongly trending markets can remain
overbought for days or even weeks. But, it is a sign that coffee prices are vulnerable to a
correction.
  Shifting out to the weekly ICE continuation chart, the coffee market has bumped into long-term
declining trendline resistance, drawn off the May 2011 and September 2011 weekly highs. That
trendline offers resistance this week around the 180.40 zone.
  Additionally, bullish targets and resistance points are also seen on the weekly continuation chart
at $1.8545, the Oct. 5, 2012 weekly high and the 190.85 zone, the July 20, 2012 swing high. Those
areas are both important swing highs and technical chart points.
  The ICE coffee contract has posted gains for the past four weeks, seen on the weekly continuation
chart. This Friday's settlement will be important to monitor. If the market can pierce the weekly
trendline resistance on a closing basis, it would register yet another strong bullish technical
signal. If the trendline holds firm, it could suggest a period of consolidation or even downside
correction was beginning.
On the daily ICE May chart, nearby support lies at the $1.6830-$1.6205 zone.
  Bottom line? The market has rallied to a critical long-term trendline test. If the market stalls
at the trendline, overbought conditions could usher in a consolidation phase.