CAFÉ: Clima seco intensifica danos à produtividade no Brasil
As lavouras de café da zona da
mata de Minas Gerais e do Espírito Santo que tiveram menos de 5% do índice
normal de chuvas no último mês terão de 25% a 50% da média nos próximos
dias, disseram meteorologistas da MDA Weather Services.

    O clima adverso permanece como uma grande preocupação para os produtores
de café da região e, segundo a MDA, haverá mais danos às expectativas de
produtividade uma vez que a pouca umidade afeta o desenvolvimento das cerejas em
 partes do Brasil, maior produtor e exportador mundial de café.

    O norte e o oeste de Minas Gerais, maior estado produtor, permanecem
"muito secos", enquanto que outras regiões devem receber chuvas benéficas. 

Coffee Bounces From Major Support Floor -- Technical AnalysisKira Brecht

 

  ICE March coffee futures are firmer in early Wednesday action. The coffee market is bouncing from
a major support floor seen on the daily, but, more importantly, the weekly continuation chart for
ICE coffee. The trend outlook is bearish, but daily momentum studies had reached oversold levels in
recent days and the coffee market is vulnerable to a counter-trend rally phase.
ICE March coffee recently traded up 105 points at $1.6925 a pound.
  On the daily chart, ICE March coffee futures have been under pressure since the October peak at
$2.2910. From there the market tumbled to a low at $1.6010 on Jan. 5, and a minor counter-trend
rally followed. Last week, March coffee fell to test the $1.6010 support floor and hit a new low at
$1.5940 on Jan. 23, but again bounced from that area and continues to strengthen on Wednesday.
  Shifting out to the weekly continuation chart for ICE coffee, the market is bouncing from a major
long-term support zone. The weekly continuation chart reveals major support at the $1.5780 low from
July 2014 and then $1.6010 in early January 2015. Coffee prices are rallying from that zone this
week. That support floor in the $1.5780-$1.6010 zone represents the bottom of a large 11-month
trading range. The coffee market's willingness to hold above that support zone is a positive signal.
Conversely, if a sustained downside breakout were achieved under the $1.5780-$1.6010 zone it would
trigger a strong bearish chart signal for the coffee market.
  Daily momentum studies, including slow stochastics and the nine-day relative strength index hit
oversold levels around Jan. 22 and have now turned higher. Potential "double bottom" type of support
may be forming on the daily chart off the Jan. 5 low at $1.6010 and the Jan. 23 low at $1.5940.
  On the upside, March coffee is testing 20-day moving average resistance at $1.6981 on Wednesday.
Gains through that area would be a short-term bullish signal and would open the door for a test of
major nearby resistance at the Jan. 12 high at $1.8490.
  The trend is bearish for coffee. But, the market has fallen to a major long-term chart support and
is rebounding from that area. Daily momentum studies are turning up and will support a counter-trend
rally move. If gains are seen through the 20-day moving average, the bulls would begin to target a
retest of the January high.