Stockler Report on Crop Estimate 2014
We travelled extensively through Cerrado, Mogiana, Sul de Minas, Zona da Mata and Espírito Santo, totaling over 4.000 km. The trip was extended by a couple of days to cover the vast core regions better. Minor changes on counting methods lead to a vastly increased number of observations from 216 for last year against 410 this year.
The different estimates in the market range from 46M to 57M at the moment and even in the face of the drought. Total coffee area per region, percentage of area producing and the “other regions” production amounting to several million bags are factors that heavily influence the result of any estimate. This is why we refrain from publishing an own number based on our observations. Despite the fact and within the currently depicted range, our tendency points towards a number below 50M with Arabica still above 30M.
The effect of drought and heat
Based on our observations, we note that
• drought has the worst effect on new plantations and young plantations (up to five years) due to their less engrained roots. Older plantations are affected far less.
• the most apparent effect of the drought are increased shares of mal-developed beans and floaters plus the share of beans that show signs to end up as floaters if rainfall persists to be deficient, but can stil recover as long as the bean did not detach from the pergamino.
• the lower the elevation, the worse the effect of heat on the coffee trees. Especially
below 900m, the plants show stress signs on leaves and cherries with maturation well ahead of time.
• the higher the elevation, the most apparent the effect of a decreased vegetal
growth, i.e. a smaller distance of the youngest internodes showing decelerated growth.
• the rumor of a dramatically decreased growth of the branches, leading to three
internodes missing, cannot be confirmed. Instead, our findings after talks to farmers is that a larger number of farmers pruned their trees after little promising flowerings and amid a low coffee price in 2nd half of 2013, thus to lower costs. As one internode takes 25-40 days to grow, this fits well to the pattern of three internodes missing.
• we found the so-called “coração negro” very rarely. However, the risk for the “black
heart”, drying beans within the cherry turning black, remains if we enter the dry
season without sufficient rains, especially in parts of Sul de Minas.
Notes on regions visited
Sul de Minas
• Três Pontas and Nepomuceno as well as Machado to Campestre are the regions with lowest productivity as well as the most visible effects of drought and heat with lack of leaves, yellowish leaves, decreased vegetal growth and low yields. Together, they represent roughly 25% of Sul de Minas.
• Campos Gerais and Boa Esperança are considerably in better shape than the
aforementioned as well as, to a less obvious extent, the sector between Varginha and Alfenas. Both regions despite the fact face a strong off-cycle after a bumper crop in 2013.
• In São Sebastião do Paraiso, despite more sandy soil, we found the best yields for
Sul de Minas. The region is close to Alta Mogiana which also looked promising, see below. Itamogi, south of São Sebastião is also in a good shape, not only in productivity terms, but also by general appearance.
• Guaxupé, Muzambinho, Nova Resende and Cabo Verde are less affected by the
adverse weather situation, but still show a clear off-cycle with an average of less than 20 bags/ha. on bearing trees.
• Pruning activities are most expressive in the area between Alfenas and Varginha
(approx. 28% of the observations) as well as in Três Pontas/ Nepomuceno (approx.
22%). Overall, more than usual pruning observed, especially recepa, the cutting to the trunk, although esqueletamento remains the most practiced.
• Bearing as well as non-bearing trees showed signs of stress, but were well foliated.
Growth was affected as mentioned in the paragraph above and symptons were most expressive from Campestre to Machado, around Três Pontas and to a smaller extent between Alfenas and Varginha.
• Mal-developed beans appeared frequently, especially in the aforementioned
regions. The risk for floaters is persistent for young plantations and can only be adverted by further rains. We have seen no signs for widespread appearance of the “coração negro” during our trip.
• The most apparent abnormality observed were minor, scattered, but still
mitaca-like flowerings, especially on young branches in pruned plantations. This, combined with expected losses of internodes due to the drought will depress the
2015/16 crop.
• Farmers applied fertilizers after the return of rain in mid-February, although lack of further rainfall prevents the entry to the soil, thus risking that their efficiency once brought into the soil will be small.
• The worst case scenario: we fear a possible further decrease in yields, above all for
the young trees. For the 17% young trees, we considered a 40% yield cutback for this year against the normal estimate and for the other cherry-bearing trees an output decrease of a further 10%.
Outlook: Drought and heat and their consequences came on top of an expressive off-cycle for Sul de Minas and will definitely lower an otherwise promising 2015/16 crop. The vegetal growth is affected by the adverse weather situation which is particularly bad for young trees and new plantations, but in a similar way for the pruned trees, too. This is worth mentioning as pruning activities were higher than usual amid the low prices in
2013 and after weak picking of the flowering by “tired trees”.
Cerrado
• Our observations do not confirm an expressive on-cycle increase in production in Cerrado as it was stated by other sources in January. Differing to talks about a production increase by 20%, we observed a decrease against our last year’s result.
• Yields were astonishingly low. We conclude that trees are tired after bumper crops
and due to possibly decreased fertilization efforts by farmers.
• Again, we observed that farmers pruned after flowering when it did not fix well.
The poor fixing of flowers where they did not prune and the low yields confirm that this kind of “tiredness of trees” seems to be the major reason for a disappointing output. We observed at several points that trees were not carrying cherries as per their potential should be for this year.
• Serra do Salitre, especially the micro-region “Abacaxi” was the only area that
showed “Cerrado standard” yields beyond 40 bags/ha. on average. Araguari and Monte Carmelo already fell well behind these yields while Patrocinio, Patos de Minas and Alto Paranaiba were disappointing, depressing the overall weighted yield for Cerrado as low as 24 bags/ha.
• Due to high degree of irrigation and a less severe drought, our worst case scenario
only discounts a further 5%, especially for the regions north of Patrocínio, towards Coromandel where soils are sandier and soil moisture (as far as we can judge on it) appeared lower than in other areas.
Outlook: the potential for 2014/15 is overall promising. We did not observe substantial vegetal growth problems, although heat and lack of rain has stressed the trees leading to minor and scattered flowerings in some areas as well as sun-burned leaves. Therefore, a bumper crop for 2015 is still possible.
Mogiana
• Mogiana as a whole looks promising and Alta Mogiana exceptionally good, clearly in an on-cycle with an average productivity of 27 bags/ha. with highest yields north of Franca (Pedregulho, etc.).
• Drought impact is foreseen as minor compared to Sul de Minas due to increased
drip irrigation in Alta Mogiana and the fact that the higher elevation lessens the effect of the weather pattern according to our observations.
• We did not observe detaching of beans from the pergaminos during our
observations at the end of January which would mean the beans cannot recover even with rains and will turn black or at least floaters.
• Baixa Mogiana is most promising around Caconde and close to Poços de Caldas
while São Sebastião da Grama suffered from drought and lower yields. For the southern part of Baxia Mogiana, the picture was mixed.
Zona da Mata and ES Arabica
• The drop in output is sharpest in Zona da Mata after a bumper harvest in 2013.
While pruning activities, different to Sul de Minas, were not significantly higher than in other years as per our observations, the trees bear very few cherries.
• Arabica production on the other side of Serra do Caparaó, in Espirito Santo, looks
different. Yields are low by Brazilian benchmarks, but rains returned earlier and drought will have a limited impact.
• In the southern parts of Zona da Mata (Divino, Pedra Bonita), vegetal growth is
weak and drought effects apparent. Central and northern parts (Manhuaçu and
Caratinga) we found in a strong and expressive off-cycle.
• Overall, as small farmers dominate, we conclude that the sharp slump has two reasons: a strong off-cycle combined with decreased fertilizing and care taken by farmers amid lower prices. Drought appeared more obvious in the southern part of the region while we could not distinguish if heat was more severe than in other years around Caratinga, i.e. in the northern parts.
Outlook: due to less well treatment, the on-cycle crop 2015 will not reach 2013s output, but yields shall definitely rise again, different to ES whose output will decrease.
Conilon, Espírito Santo
• Our productivity estimate is only 11% up against last year’s number. This is based on our expanded observations at the outskirt areas that lead us to lower the overall estimated productivity (comparing only to the region we observed last year, the
productivity increase would have been larger).
• Our observation is that yields decrease in areas where production is not as intense as in Linhares, Sooretama or in the hilly landscape around Rio Bananal and Vila Valerio. In the north, yields came down to 31 bags/ha. from some 43 bags/ha. for Linhares and Rio Bananal regions. In the south, productivity is expected to be even below 30 bags/ha.
• We expect a bumper crop in the main areas. Especially in the dense producing
region north of Colatina up to Nova Venecia, professionalism, care and widespread irrigation lead to yields that can reach 100 bags/ha. and more.
• Extreme yields were observed less often this year, but overall productivity is high
and treatment by farmers well. Trees are in good shape, debranching of new sprouts is done in a way that guarantees continuing high yields (maintaining 3-4 older branches while letting the same amount of younger ones grow).
• We estimate similar good yields in Bahia as in ES and think that there is more
Conilon planted in Bahia than published by CONAB while Rondônia according to many comments remains low in productivity with an decreasing planted area.
Estimate based on observations done between 27/1 and 28/2/2014. For carry-over and estimate, we will trust and rely on NKG(Neumann Kaffee Gruppe) Statistical Unit’s results and calculations due to be published this month.
Santos, March, 7 2014
STOCKLER COMERCIAL E EXPORTADORA LTDA (http://www.stocklerltda.com.br/aboutus)
NEUMANN KAFFEE GRUPPE - NKG (http://www.nkg.net/aboutus)
We travelled extensively through Cerrado, Mogiana, Sul de Minas, Zona da Mata and Espírito Santo, totaling over 4.000 km. The trip was extended by a couple of days to cover the vast core regions better. Minor changes on counting methods lead to a vastly increased number of observations from 216 for last year against 410 this year.
The different estimates in the market range from 46M to 57M at the moment and even in the face of the drought. Total coffee area per region, percentage of area producing and the “other regions” production amounting to several million bags are factors that heavily influence the result of any estimate. This is why we refrain from publishing an own number based on our observations. Despite the fact and within the currently depicted range, our tendency points towards a number below 50M with Arabica still above 30M.
The effect of drought and heat
Based on our observations, we note that
• drought has the worst effect on new plantations and young plantations (up to five years) due to their less engrained roots. Older plantations are affected far less.
• the most apparent effect of the drought are increased shares of mal-developed beans and floaters plus the share of beans that show signs to end up as floaters if rainfall persists to be deficient, but can stil recover as long as the bean did not detach from the pergamino.
• the lower the elevation, the worse the effect of heat on the coffee trees. Especially
below 900m, the plants show stress signs on leaves and cherries with maturation well ahead of time.
• the higher the elevation, the most apparent the effect of a decreased vegetal
growth, i.e. a smaller distance of the youngest internodes showing decelerated growth.
• the rumor of a dramatically decreased growth of the branches, leading to three
internodes missing, cannot be confirmed. Instead, our findings after talks to farmers is that a larger number of farmers pruned their trees after little promising flowerings and amid a low coffee price in 2nd half of 2013, thus to lower costs. As one internode takes 25-40 days to grow, this fits well to the pattern of three internodes missing.
• we found the so-called “coração negro” very rarely. However, the risk for the “black
heart”, drying beans within the cherry turning black, remains if we enter the dry
season without sufficient rains, especially in parts of Sul de Minas.
Notes on regions visited
Sul de Minas
• Três Pontas and Nepomuceno as well as Machado to Campestre are the regions with lowest productivity as well as the most visible effects of drought and heat with lack of leaves, yellowish leaves, decreased vegetal growth and low yields. Together, they represent roughly 25% of Sul de Minas.
• Campos Gerais and Boa Esperança are considerably in better shape than the
aforementioned as well as, to a less obvious extent, the sector between Varginha and Alfenas. Both regions despite the fact face a strong off-cycle after a bumper crop in 2013.
• In São Sebastião do Paraiso, despite more sandy soil, we found the best yields for
Sul de Minas. The region is close to Alta Mogiana which also looked promising, see below. Itamogi, south of São Sebastião is also in a good shape, not only in productivity terms, but also by general appearance.
• Guaxupé, Muzambinho, Nova Resende and Cabo Verde are less affected by the
adverse weather situation, but still show a clear off-cycle with an average of less than 20 bags/ha. on bearing trees.
• Pruning activities are most expressive in the area between Alfenas and Varginha
(approx. 28% of the observations) as well as in Três Pontas/ Nepomuceno (approx.
22%). Overall, more than usual pruning observed, especially recepa, the cutting to the trunk, although esqueletamento remains the most practiced.
• Bearing as well as non-bearing trees showed signs of stress, but were well foliated.
Growth was affected as mentioned in the paragraph above and symptons were most expressive from Campestre to Machado, around Três Pontas and to a smaller extent between Alfenas and Varginha.
• Mal-developed beans appeared frequently, especially in the aforementioned
regions. The risk for floaters is persistent for young plantations and can only be adverted by further rains. We have seen no signs for widespread appearance of the “coração negro” during our trip.
• The most apparent abnormality observed were minor, scattered, but still
mitaca-like flowerings, especially on young branches in pruned plantations. This, combined with expected losses of internodes due to the drought will depress the
2015/16 crop.
• Farmers applied fertilizers after the return of rain in mid-February, although lack of further rainfall prevents the entry to the soil, thus risking that their efficiency once brought into the soil will be small.
• The worst case scenario: we fear a possible further decrease in yields, above all for
the young trees. For the 17% young trees, we considered a 40% yield cutback for this year against the normal estimate and for the other cherry-bearing trees an output decrease of a further 10%.
Outlook: Drought and heat and their consequences came on top of an expressive off-cycle for Sul de Minas and will definitely lower an otherwise promising 2015/16 crop. The vegetal growth is affected by the adverse weather situation which is particularly bad for young trees and new plantations, but in a similar way for the pruned trees, too. This is worth mentioning as pruning activities were higher than usual amid the low prices in
2013 and after weak picking of the flowering by “tired trees”.
Cerrado
• Our observations do not confirm an expressive on-cycle increase in production in Cerrado as it was stated by other sources in January. Differing to talks about a production increase by 20%, we observed a decrease against our last year’s result.
• Yields were astonishingly low. We conclude that trees are tired after bumper crops
and due to possibly decreased fertilization efforts by farmers.
• Again, we observed that farmers pruned after flowering when it did not fix well.
The poor fixing of flowers where they did not prune and the low yields confirm that this kind of “tiredness of trees” seems to be the major reason for a disappointing output. We observed at several points that trees were not carrying cherries as per their potential should be for this year.
• Serra do Salitre, especially the micro-region “Abacaxi” was the only area that
showed “Cerrado standard” yields beyond 40 bags/ha. on average. Araguari and Monte Carmelo already fell well behind these yields while Patrocinio, Patos de Minas and Alto Paranaiba were disappointing, depressing the overall weighted yield for Cerrado as low as 24 bags/ha.
• Due to high degree of irrigation and a less severe drought, our worst case scenario
only discounts a further 5%, especially for the regions north of Patrocínio, towards Coromandel where soils are sandier and soil moisture (as far as we can judge on it) appeared lower than in other areas.
Outlook: the potential for 2014/15 is overall promising. We did not observe substantial vegetal growth problems, although heat and lack of rain has stressed the trees leading to minor and scattered flowerings in some areas as well as sun-burned leaves. Therefore, a bumper crop for 2015 is still possible.
Mogiana
• Mogiana as a whole looks promising and Alta Mogiana exceptionally good, clearly in an on-cycle with an average productivity of 27 bags/ha. with highest yields north of Franca (Pedregulho, etc.).
• Drought impact is foreseen as minor compared to Sul de Minas due to increased
drip irrigation in Alta Mogiana and the fact that the higher elevation lessens the effect of the weather pattern according to our observations.
• We did not observe detaching of beans from the pergaminos during our
observations at the end of January which would mean the beans cannot recover even with rains and will turn black or at least floaters.
• Baixa Mogiana is most promising around Caconde and close to Poços de Caldas
while São Sebastião da Grama suffered from drought and lower yields. For the southern part of Baxia Mogiana, the picture was mixed.
Zona da Mata and ES Arabica
• The drop in output is sharpest in Zona da Mata after a bumper harvest in 2013.
While pruning activities, different to Sul de Minas, were not significantly higher than in other years as per our observations, the trees bear very few cherries.
• Arabica production on the other side of Serra do Caparaó, in Espirito Santo, looks
different. Yields are low by Brazilian benchmarks, but rains returned earlier and drought will have a limited impact.
• In the southern parts of Zona da Mata (Divino, Pedra Bonita), vegetal growth is
weak and drought effects apparent. Central and northern parts (Manhuaçu and
Caratinga) we found in a strong and expressive off-cycle.
• Overall, as small farmers dominate, we conclude that the sharp slump has two reasons: a strong off-cycle combined with decreased fertilizing and care taken by farmers amid lower prices. Drought appeared more obvious in the southern part of the region while we could not distinguish if heat was more severe than in other years around Caratinga, i.e. in the northern parts.
Outlook: due to less well treatment, the on-cycle crop 2015 will not reach 2013s output, but yields shall definitely rise again, different to ES whose output will decrease.
Conilon, Espírito Santo
• Our productivity estimate is only 11% up against last year’s number. This is based on our expanded observations at the outskirt areas that lead us to lower the overall estimated productivity (comparing only to the region we observed last year, the
productivity increase would have been larger).
• Our observation is that yields decrease in areas where production is not as intense as in Linhares, Sooretama or in the hilly landscape around Rio Bananal and Vila Valerio. In the north, yields came down to 31 bags/ha. from some 43 bags/ha. for Linhares and Rio Bananal regions. In the south, productivity is expected to be even below 30 bags/ha.
• We expect a bumper crop in the main areas. Especially in the dense producing
region north of Colatina up to Nova Venecia, professionalism, care and widespread irrigation lead to yields that can reach 100 bags/ha. and more.
• Extreme yields were observed less often this year, but overall productivity is high
and treatment by farmers well. Trees are in good shape, debranching of new sprouts is done in a way that guarantees continuing high yields (maintaining 3-4 older branches while letting the same amount of younger ones grow).
• We estimate similar good yields in Bahia as in ES and think that there is more
Conilon planted in Bahia than published by CONAB while Rondônia according to many comments remains low in productivity with an decreasing planted area.
Estimate based on observations done between 27/1 and 28/2/2014. For carry-over and estimate, we will trust and rely on NKG(Neumann Kaffee Gruppe) Statistical Unit’s results and calculations due to be published this month.
Santos, March, 7 2014
STOCKLER COMERCIAL E EXPORTADORA LTDA (http://www.stocklerltda.com.br/aboutus)
NEUMANN KAFFEE GRUPPE - NKG (http://www.nkg.net/aboutus)
