Commodities Market Impact Weather: Extensive Drier Trend

  OMAHA--A week-long dry pattern for the central U.S., and an uncertain rainfall outlook in central

Brazil, are the primary weather items for the commodity trade's attention Friday.

DRY CENTRAL U.S. PATTERN

  The DTN ag weather forecast calls for drier conditions in the entire central U.S. during the next

week to 10 days. This pattern will favor field and crop drying along with harvest progress and

winter wheat planting in the Midwest and Delta, while maintaining favorable conditions for crop

activity in the Plains as well.

MORE EXTREME HEAT IN CENTRAL BRAZIL

  Extreme heat and mostly dry conditions remain in central Brazil for another week. This is highly

unfavorable for any early-planted soybeans and it likely discourages farmers from further planting

at this time. The longer-range outlook for the end of the 10-day period suggests some chance for

increasing showers in the region. If real, this would likely help bring temperatures closer to

normal. However, this is a fairly long-range outlook so its veracity is uncertain.

HOT WEEKEND FOR BRAZIL COFFEE BELT

  Brazil coffee and sugarcane areas continue with very hot and dry through Monday. This puts extreme

stress on any flowering coffee trees and development of recently-planted sugarcane. The longer-range

outlook calls for scattered light showers with isolated heavier next Tuesday. Wednesday and Thursday

look drier again, but probably not as hot. The extended 10-day weather outlook shows some increase

in shower and thundershowers are possible. This is a fairly long-range outlook so its veracity is

uncertain.

BENEFICIAL RAINS IN BLACK SEA REGION

  Light to moderate showers with locally heavier intensity developed through southwest, central and

northeast Ukraine during the past 48 hours. A few showers have also moved into the Black Soils

region of Russia during the past 24 hours. A second area of light to moderate rain is expected to

develop over Crimea and head into North Caucasus Russia Friday. This area may see additional showers

during the weekend. Showers maintain more favorable growing conditions for winter grains while

causing some delays to the harvest of summer crops.

VARIABLE RAINFALL IN SOUTH AFRICA

  South Africa sugarcane areas along with eastern and northern maize areas had moderate to heavy

rainfall in the past two days. The rain will favor early development of the new sugarcane crop, but

there may be some field work delays. Showers in the eastern maize areas may encourage more planting.

However, western maize areas are still too dry for widespread planting to begin.

Café -  17-10-2014

Sumário do Tempo

Calor volta forte à Região Sudeste neste fim de semana, quando também devem retornar as chuvas típicas de verão. Com as altas temperaturas e o gradual retorno da umidade, não estão descartadas pancadas de chuva, que mesmo muito isoladas, podem ser fortes e acompanhadas de temporais. No início da próxima semana chega uma frente fria que traz chuva mais espalhada sobre o Sudeste, mas ainda assim com baixo volume acumulado.

Análise agrícola

Tempo seco e quente compromete cafezais

A primeira quinzena de outubro termina terrível para a produção de café do Brasil. As chuvas do final de setembro induziram a abertura dos botões florais em vários municípios produtores de São Paulo e Minas Gerais, porém o tempo voltou a ficar firme e comprometeu o pegamento da florada.

Vale salientar que a florada do final de setembro e início de outubro foi muito irregular, ou seja, não foram todas as regiões que a registraram, nem toda planta. Ainda há botões florais para abrir, que esperam somente a próxima chuva.

Com a demora na ocorrência dessas chuvas a planta está sobre forte estresse hídrico e térmico, por isso, muitos botões florais poderão morrer. Com isso, a produtividade para a safra 2015 ficará comprometida. Ainda é cedo para mensurar as reais perdas da produção cafeeira, mas é fato que será menor do que a média para um ano de bienalidade baixa, como será a de 2015.

As plantas estão com baixos índices foliares e isso poderá colaborar para um percentual mais baixo de pegamento dos botões florais e até mesmo o abortamento dos chumbinhos.

Quando as chuvas retornarem de forma definitiva nas regiões cafeeiras – no mês de novembro – as plantas serão estimuladas a terem novas floradas e isso poderá minimizar as perdas ocorridas até o momento. Mas como mencionado acima, a produção de café em 2015 deverá sofrer reduções significativas.

Previsão para os próximos 10 dias

Para essa semana não há previsão de chuvas sobre as regiões cafeeiras e as temperaturas ainda ficarão muito acima da média para essa época do ano, o que agrava ainda mais a situação dos cafezais, porque paralisa o seu metabolismo.

As chuvas só voltarão para as regiões cafeeiras em meados da semana que vem, mas os volumes acumulados serão insuficientes para elevar os níveis de umidade do solo a patamares confortáveis ao desenvolvimento das plantas. Chuvas em bons volumes e com boa regularidade só deverão ser registradas no finalzinho do mês de outubro e ao longo de novembro.

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Coffee report - 10/17/2014  - (google translator)

Summary of Time

Strong heat back to the Southeast this weekend, when they must also return the typical summer rains. With the high temperatures and the gradual return of moisture, are not discarded rain showers, even very isolated, and may be accompanied by strong thunderstorms. Early next week comes a cold front brings more rain spread over the Southeast, but still with low cumulative volume.

agricultural analysis

Dry and hot weather undertakes plantations

The first half of October ends terrible for coffee production in Brazil. The rains of late September led the opening of the buds in various producing municipalities of São Paulo and Minas Gerais, but the time came to stand firm and committed the fixation of flowering.

It is noteworthy that the bloom from late September and early October was very irregular, ie, were not all regions that recorded, not every plant. There is still floral to open, waiting only the buttons next rain.

With the delay in any rainfall the plant is under severe drought and heat stress, so many flower buds may die. Thus, productivity for the 2015 season will be compromised. It is still early to measure the actual losses from coffee production, but it is a fact that will be less than the average for one-year low biannuality, as will 2015.

The plants are low foliar indices and this may contribute to a lower percentage of fixation of the buds and even abortion of pellets.

When the rains return permanently in the coffee regions - in November - the plants will be encouraged to have new blooms and this can minimize the losses incurred so far. But as mentioned above, coffee production in 2015 is likely to suffer significant reductions.

Forecast for the next 10 days

For this week there is no forecast of rain on coffee regions and temperatures will still be well above average for this time of year, which further aggravates the situation of the coffee plantations, because paralyzes your metabolism.

The rains only come back to the coffee regions in the middle of next week, but the accumulated volumes are insufficient to raise levels of soil moisture to comfortable levels for plant growth. Good rains in volumes and with good regularity should be recorded at the very end of October and throughout November.