Chuvas no Brasil entram no radar dos baixistas e café despenca na ICE

  Os contratos futuros de café arábica negociados na ICE Futures US fecharam esta terça-feira no menor patamar de preços em mais de 49 meses, consolidando, assim, o viés baixista que "persegue" o mercado cafeeiro desde maio de 2011. Em uma sessão relativamente mais movimentada, os negócios estiveram focados, predominantemente, em liquidações especulativas, com o dezembro rompendo, na segunda metade da sessão, dois importantes suportes: o de 115,25 centavos, que era a mínima de 49 meses recentemente tocada, e o referencial psicológico de 115,00 centavos.

As vendas efetivas do dia vieram também na esteira da retomada das chuvas no cinturão cafeeiro brasileiro. O centro-sul do país vinha de uma seca de quase dois meses, com baixíssima umidade relativa do ar e com alguns dias de temperaturas dignas de verão. As chuvas registradas entre segunda e terça-feira deverão ser suficientes para que o processo de floração das lavouras avance e a expectativa é que as plantas passem a ter um desenvolvimento normal, garantindo, assim, a safra de 2014, que será de ciclo bianual de alta. Ou seja, o Brasil irá colocar no mercado um volume ainda maior que o registrado no atual exercício. Se por um lado a chuva dá tranquilidade ao produtor e permite a ele se programar para que a safra tenha um andamento dentro dos parâmetros necessários, por outro abre espaço para que os especuladores atuem ainda mais no lado vendedor e se sintam estimulados a testar novos níveis de baixa. Para alguns operadores, o "alvo" natural, a partir de agora é o de 110,00 centavos, no qual o dezembro poderá passar a flutuar.

No encerramento do dia em Nova Iorque, a posição dezembro teve queda de 430 pontos, com 114,95 centavos de dólar por libra peso, com a máxima em 114,25 centavos e a mínima de 119,20 centavos, com o março registrando baixa de 425 pontos, com 118,00 centavos por libra, com a máxima em 117,35 centavos e a mínima em 122,15 centavos. Na Euronext/Liffe, em Londres, a posição novembro teve retração de 49 dólares, com 1.681 dólares por tonelada, com o janeiro tendo perda de 51 dólares, no nível de 1.674 dólares por tonelada.

De acordo com analistas internacionais, o dia na bolsa nova-iorquina esteve dissociado no cenário externo. Os bears (baixistas) pegaram carona nas chuvas do Brasil e passaram a liquidar mais fortemente, conseguindo, até com certa tranquilidade, romper as mínimas recentes. O dólar teve uma terça-feira de quedas em relação a várias moedas internacionais e uma retração ainda mais incisiva no confronto com o real brasileiro. Já as commodities ficaram relativamente pressionadas, com quedas para a maior parte do complexo soft e também para os grãos, com exceção do trigo.

"As chuvas tiveram uma leitura imediata de que a safra brasileira de 2014 vai se desenvolver sem maiores contratempos. Diante do histórico de clima e produção, principalmente nas últimas cinco ou dez temporadas, se verifica que essa percepção se justifica. Normalmente temos uma saída de inverno muito seca, até com dias de calor excessivo, e a retomada das chuvas, que garante a florada e o posterior pegamento. Muita gente começa, a partir de agora, a especular sobre o tamanho da safra do ano que vem e há muitos operadores falando em números muito robustos. Isso só vai contribuir para aumentar essa pressão em um mercado já muito especulado", disse um trader.

Os estoques de café verde dos Estados Unidos apresentaram um aumento de 129.195 sacas no final de agosto, atingindo a marca de 5.561.576 sacas, de acordo com dados divulgados pela GCA (Associação de Café Verde dos Estados Unidos). Em 31 de julho, os estoques do país chegavam a 5.432.381 sacas.

Em agosto, as exportações de café do Vietnã caíram 18,5% ante o mesmo mês de 2012, para 83,7 mil toneladas, indicou o departamento de alfândega do país indo-asiático. O volume ficou um pouco acima das expectativas do mercado. No período de janeiro a agosto, o país remeteu 968.400 toneladas ao exterior, o que significa uma queda de 23,7% em relação ao mesmo período do ano anterior.

As exportações brasileiras no mês de setembro, até o dia 16, totalizaram 742.436 sacas de café, alta de 31,33% em relação às 565.310 sacas embarcadas no mesmo período do mês anterior, de acordo com informações do Cecafé (Conselho dos Exportadores de Café do Brasil).

Os estoques certificados de café na bolsa de Nova Iorque tiveram queda de 1.722 sacas, indo para 2.781.263 sacas. O volume negociado no dia na ICE Futures US foi estimado em 30.444 lotes, com as opções tendo 4.102 calls e 2.452 puts — floor mais eletrônico. Tecnicamente, o dezembro na ICE Futures US tem resistência em 119,20, 119,50, 119,90-120,00, 120,50, 120,75, 121,00-121,05, 121,10, 121,50, 122,00, 122,50, 122,20, 122,50, 122,75, 123,00, 123,50, 124,00, 124,50-124,60 e 124,90-125,00 centavos de dólar, com o suporte em 114,25, 114,00, 113,50, 113,00, 112,50, 112,00, 111,50, 111,00, 110,50, 110,10-110,00, 109,50, 109,00, 108,50, 108,00 e 107,50 centavos.

Pressão contínua: Londres tem dia de perdas substanciais

  Os contratos futuros de café robusta despencaram nesta terça-feira na Euronext/Liffe, em uma sessão caracterizada por fortes liquidações especulativas e por um volume mais consistente que aquele que vinha sendo trabalhado ao longo dos últimos dias nessa casa de comercialização britânica.

De acordo com analistas internacionais, mais uma vez os robustas sofreram a influência das arbitragens e seguiram a tendência de Nova Iorque. Os arábicas na bolsa norte-americana tiveram um dia de fortes baixas, com os preços flutuando próximos dos menores patamares em mais de quatro anos. A manutenção de um viés técnico baixista e o fim de uma estiagem que já durava quase dois meses e que se somava a temperaturas elevadas e pouca umidade relativa do ar no cinturão cafeeiro do Brasil deram o tom para que os players saíssem liquidando, abrindo espaço para que os preços tocassem em novas mínimas.

"Estamos, efetivamente, cumprindo uma nova etapa de baixa para os robustas. Hoje chegamos a tocar a mínima de 1.660 dólares por tonelada. Os preços conseguiram, por algum tempo, se sustentar, mas diante de um quadro técnico tão deprimido, o que se observa é que as cartas estão nas mãos dos baixistas e eles se mostram ativos", disse um trader.

O novembro teve uma movimentação ao longo do dia de 12,3 mil contratos, contra 3,76 mil do janeiro. O spread entre as posições novembro e janeiro ficou em 7 dólares. No encerramento do dia, o novembro teve retração de 49 dólares, com 1.681 dólares por tonelada, com o janeiro tendo perda de 51 dólares, no nível de 1.674 dólares por tonelada.

Arabica-Coffee Futures Drop to Lowest Level Since July 2009

Alexandra Wexler

  NEW YORK--Arabica-coffee futures tumbled to their lowest settlement in more

than four years Tuesday as traders worried about massive supplies.

  Earlier this week, the Green Coffee Association, an industry group, said U.S.

stocks of unroasted coffee rose 2.4% to 5.56 million 60-kilogram (132-pound)

bags during the month ended Aug. 31. That's the most coffee in domestic

warehouses since July 2009, the last time prices traded at current levels.

  In addition, forecasts for rains this week in growing areas of Brazil, the

source of one-third of the world's coffee, are expected to nourish the arabica

crop that farmers will start picking in mid-2014.

  Arabica coffee for December delivery on the ICE Futures U.S. exchange ended

3.6% lower at $1.1495 a pound, the lowest settlement since July 13, 2009.

  Rains in Brazil are negative for prices because they "will create good

flowering for the next crop," said Jack Scoville, vice president at Price

Futures Group in Chicago.

  Coffee trees flower before the fruit containing the coffee beans emerges, and

a strong flowering is usually indicative of the size and quality of the

harvest.

  Expectations for a record 'off-year' coffee harvest during the current season

in Brazil's two-year crop cycle have also weighed on the market for months.

  "The current crop harvest has proceeded well (and) most traders are still

bearish longer-term on big world supplies," Mr. Scoville said.

  Traders and analysts said that the market's failure to rise much above the

key-technical and psychological level of $1.20 a pound, despite testing it

during the last four sessions, also prompted speculative investors to add bets

that prices would fall further.

  "When we were unable to break above that level, the market just kind of

folded due to the abundant supplies in the short term," said Boyd Cruel, senior

analyst at Vision Financial Markets in Chicago.

  Last week, Societe Generale reduced its forecast for arabica coffee during

the fourth quarter of 2013, "due to the fourth consecutive season of arabica

production exceeding demand and a continuing global surplus," the bank said in

a note. For the last three months of the year, Societe Generale projects that

arabica prices will average about $1.15 a pound.

  "We're still trying to find a harvest low in here," said Fain Shaffer,

president of Infinity Trading Corp., an Indianapolis-based brokerage. He

expects that prices could trade as low as $1 a pound, a level last seen in

September 2006, before that happens.

  Orange-juice futures plunged Tuesday as investors liquidated bets that prices

would rise after a flurry of storm systems in the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean

Sea weakened or were forecast to miss top U.S. citrus-grower Florida.

  "It's the hurricane buyers from last week bailing out of their positions,"

said James Cordier, president of Tampa, Fla.-based brokerage Liberty Trading

Group. "We've got a bit of a vacuum beneath the market."

  Orange juice for delivery in November on the ICE Futures U.S. exchange closed

6% lower at $1.2755 a pound, the lowest settlement since March 7 and the

biggest one-day price movement since March 8.

  Traders had been placing bets that a hurricane might damage the groves and

lower output in Florida, the source of more than two-thirds of U.S. orange

output. But with the peak of hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov.

30, behind the market, traders are pulling out.

  "This is what happens when we have specs who buy the market based on weather

that doesn't develop," Mr. Cordier said.

  Raw-sugar on ICE also eased, settling 0.9% lower at 16.79 cents a pound.

Cocoa pulled back from a fresh  one-year high of $2,648 a ton in intraday

trade, to end down 0.8% at $2,614 a ton.

  Cotton futures bucked the general trend in soft commodities to close up 0.5%

at 84.44 cents a pound, as the development of the domestic crop continued to

lag during the week ended Sept. 15, and the its condition worsened slightly,

according to a report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Arabica-Coffee Futures Tumble to 4 1/2-Year Low

Alexandra Wexler

  NEW YORK  -  Arabica-coffee futures prices tumbled to their lowest level since

March 2009 on Tuesday as forecasts for rain in No. 1 grower Brazil boosted the

outlook for next year's crop.

  Arabica coffee for delivery in December on the ICE Futures U.S. exchange was

recently down 4% at $1.1445 a pound.

  Brazil, the source of around one-third of the world's coffee, is wrapping up

its current harvest. Rains are now needed to nourish the next arabica crop,

which farmers will start picking in mid-2014.

  In addition, traders and analysts said the market's failure to rise much

above the key technical and psychological level of $1.20 a pound during the

last four sessions has prompted speculative investors to add bets that prices

will fall further.

  "When we were unable to break above that level, the market just kind of

folded due to the abundant supplies in the short term," said Boyd Cruel, senior

analyst at Vision Financial Markets in Chicago.

  Expectations for a record "off-year" coffee harvest in Brazil's two-year crop

cycle have weighed on the market this season. Mr. Cruel said futures could

trade as low as $1.10 a pound before finding support.

  "We're still trying to find a harvest low in here," said Fain Shaffer,

president of Infinity Trading Corp., an Indianapolis-based brokerage.

SocGen wary on cotton, slashes coffee price hopes

Societe Generale began coverage of cotton futures with a caution of modest price falls as it revealed dim hopes for soft commodity prices, slashing forecasts for arabica coffee and foreseeing little chance of a sugar revival.

The bank, as it cut forecasts for soybean prices but lifted hopes for grains, initiated coverage on cotton "with a downside bias", cautioning over the potential for output to beat investors' expectations.

In India, the best start to the monsoon season in nearly 12 years had raised production hopes for the second-ranked producing country, while there was still hope for a recovery in the US, the top exporter, too.

Although poor summer conditions which brought parts of Texas, the top producing state, too little rain, while areas further east have suffered inundations, the late planting of the US crop, thanks to a wet spring, supported hopes for a revival.

'Still potential'

"There is still potential for an abundant US cotton crop," provided autumn weather proved benign, Societe Generale analyst Christopher Narayanan said.

"The likelihood remains for a better-than-forecasted US cotton production year and prices to fall below the current forward curve at the time of this writing."

The comments follow a mixed reception by investors to revisions by the US Department of Agriculture on Thursday to its cotton estimate, lowering its estimate for domestic production in 2013-14, but cutting its forecast for exports by further.

On the world balance sheet, the USDA nudged higher its production outlook, and raised its forecast for year-end stocks by nearly 1.0m bales.

"In contrast to the relatively tight US cotton balance sheet, global supplies remain uncomfortably large," Luke Mathews at Commonwealth Bank of Australia said.

Output rises

SocGen also cut its forecast for arabica coffee prices, reflecting strong harvests in Brazil and Colombia, which have more than offset the dent to production from the outbreak of rust in central America.

"Looking ahead, we do expect to see an eventual tightening of the global surplus," Mr Narayanan said.

"However, with the next crop year being an 'on year' for Brazilian coffee production, this tightening will not be seen until the 2015-16 marketing year, barring any significant drop in Central American coffee production due to leaf rust disease."

The comments follow downbeat forecasts from Goldman Sachs last week over the prospect of a revival in arabica prices.

Demand question

SocGen lowered its forecast for sugar prices too, although to levels a little above the futures curve.

"Strong" Brazilian production - encouraged by a weak real which is boosting the appeal of making sugar, a major export, rather than ethanol from cane – has "continued to plague sugar prices", the bank said.

And the prospect of "the fourth global surplus in as many years continues to weigh on the market".

However, the bank acknowledged that "falling prices in large consuming countries and regions such as the EU and India may spur additional demand".

In China, "demand has remained reasonably robust, except in June.

"While stocks there appear to be ample, disappointing 2012-13 production, following unfavourable weather, has helped to keep demand there strong."

The comments come amid a debate on sugar demand, sparked by comments from Czarnikow that consumption is greater than has been realised, which fuelled a record bullish shift by hedge funds in their positioning on raw sugar futures and options.