Early Ag Weather Watch - Feb 27

EARLY LOOK WEATHER REPORT

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...88 AT FORT LAUDERDALE FL AND POMPANO BEACH FL

LOW  WED...25 BELOW ZERO AT CLARK WY AND SHIRLEY BASIN WY

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 06:00 PM CT...NEW ORLEANS LA 1.85 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

The US and European models are in fair to good agreement during the next 10

days. I am using a compromise between the models today. The strong secondary

arctic surge that the US model has been forecasting for the plains and Midwest

regions behind the snow storm this weekend is now somewhat weaker and further

to the east.

The short range maps, days 1-5, first show the extreme cold event continuing

for the next few days and then show the moderate to heavy precipitation event

developing over the southeast plains and the southwest Midwest before moving

through the Delta, the south and east Midwest regions.

The longer range maps, days 6-10, continue to show the high latitude

blocking ridge located northwest of Alaska. We see the strong polar vortex over

northern Canada during this period. A weak ridge is expected to develop over

the western US, mostly later in the period. A broad trough is located either

side of the Miss river. This is a cold pattern for Canada and the northern tier

of U.S. states. This is a somewhat warmer pattern for the southern U.S. region

and variable elsewhere in the U.S. Precipitation chances look to be highest

from the lower Miss and Ohio river valleys to the east coast.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

ARGENTINA: Mostly dry weather with a warming trend during the 6 day period.

This will favor developing crops, after recent heavy rains.

BRAZIL SOYBEANS/CORN: Periodic scattered showers and seasonal temperatures will

favor filling crops and early developing second crop corn. Local delays

continue for harvesting the early crops and planting the second crop corn due

to showers. The pattern does not look as wet during the coming days which

should allow for some improvement, except of course in areas impacted by local

thundershowers.

BRAZIL COFFEE, CITRUS, SUGARCANE AREAS: A weakening cold front will drift into

the very dry areas of eastern Sao Paulo and western Minas Gerais during this

weekend. This may allow for scattered light showers with isolated heavier. This

should help ease stress to crops, somewhat. However, more rain will be needed

to end concerns and to prevent further declines in crop prospects. The next

chance for scattered showers to occur appears to be later next week.

CENTRAL/SOUTH PLAINS: Scattered light to locally moderate precipitation during

this weekend will favor dormant winter wheat. Only minor concerns for livestock

areas of the western plains.

MIDWEST: Extreme cold continues to greatly increase usage of natural gas for

heating during the next 5-6 days. Somewhat less cold is possible after that. A

major snow and ice event is shaping up for the southern and eastern Midwest and

the northern Delta region for the weekend period. This likely impacts travel

and transport for these locations. Somewhat less snow is expected in Iowa,

especially northern Iowa, with this system. It does not appear cold enough to

harm Soft Red Wheat in areas that do not have a protective snow cover.

SOUTH AFRICA: Warm to hot temperatures today and Friday will be followed by

scattered showers and thundershowers during the weekend period. This is mostly

a favorable weather pattern for filling maize and developing sugarcane.

CHINA: Moderate to locally heavy snow and rain has occurred through central and

southern winter wheat areas of eastern China and through most winter rapeseed

areas during February. This will help to replenish soil moisture and it will

favor crops when they break dormancy in the spring. Snow to the north was not

as heavy but still fairly significant for this time of the year. Snow and ice

and to a lesser extent rain will have delayed transportation somewhat. The

weather pattern currently favors additional chances for snow or rain through

the Yangtze river valley and the southern part of the North China Plain.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES/FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

WEST: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged at least 15 to

25 degrees below normal yesterday.

EAST: Snow showers and a few squalls occurred in northern areas during the past

24 hours. Dry elsewhere in the region. Temperatures averaged 20-25 degrees

below normal.

Forecast....

WEST: Dry today. Chance for light snow or snow showers during Friday. Mainly

dry north, chance for snow south, during Saturday. Temperatures average well

below normal.

Snow may linger through in Missouri and southeast Iowa during Sunday. Dry

Monday. Dry or with only a little light precipitation in the north during

Tuesday. Temperatures average well below normal during this period.

EAST: Mostly dry today. Dry or with only a little light snow or snow showers

during Friday and Saturday. Temperatures average well below normal.

Snow or freezing rain is expected during Sunday and Sunday night. Heavy

precipitation may occur, favoring southern and eastern areas. Snow may linger

in the east, drier west, during Monday. Dry or with only a little light

precipitation Tuesday. Temperatures average well below normal during this

period.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average below to near normal

during this period. Precipitation should average near to above normal through

the south and east areas, near to below normal northwest.

Central/Southern Plains (Winter Wheat)

Summary: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged well below

normal. Lows yesterday morning ranged from -7 in southwest Nebraska to +34 in

northeast Texas, normals would be 17-41F.

Forecast: Mostly dry today. Dry or with only a little light precipitation

through northwest areas during Friday. Scattered light to locally moderate

precipitation is expected during Saturday into Sunday. The heaviest of this

activity should favor the eastern areas. Dry or with only a little light

precipitation during Monday through Wednesday. Temperatures average below

normal today, below normal north and above normal south tomorrow and Saturday,

below or well below normal Sunday and Monday, below normal Tuesday, near normal

west and below normal east Wednesday.

6-10 Day Outlook...Temperatures are expected to average below to near normal

north, near to above normal south. Precipitation averages near to above normal

through southeast locations, near to below normal through north and southwest

areas.

Brazil (Corn, Soybeans, Citrus, Coffee, Sugarcane)

Summary...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, 0.30-1.50

inches (8-38 mm) and locally heavier, occurred in RGDS and Santa Catarina

during the past 24 hours. Only a few light showers in Parana during this time.

Temperatures averaged near to below normal yesterday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and Goias: A few light showers with isolated heavier in Mato

Grosso and southeast MGDS during the past 24 hours. Little elsewhere in the

region. Temperatures averaged near to slightly above normal.

Sao Paulo/Minas Gerais: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures

averaged above normal yesterday.

Forecast...

Rio Grande do Sul, Parana, MGDS: Scattered light showers with locally heavier

will favor eastern and northern areas today while the southwest turns drier.

Mostly dry tomorrow and Saturday. Temperatures average near to below normal

south and near to above normal north during this period.

A few showers and thundershowers may occur in MGDS during Sunday, dry

elsewhere in the region Sunday. Scattered to widely scattered light showers

with locally heavier during Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures average mostly

near normal south, near to above normal north.

Sao Paulo/Minas Gerais: Mostly dry or with only a few light showers through

extreme west and south areas today. Chance for a few showers and thundershowers

during Friday, mostly in western areas but a few may occur in the east as well.

Scattered to widely scattered light showers during Saturday. Temperatures

average above normal today and Friday, near to above normal Saturday.

Scattered to widely scattered and mostly light showers linger in the region

Sunday and possibly early Monday. Drier later Monday. Chance for showers west,

fair east, during Tuesday. Temperatures average near to above normal Sunday,

above normal Monday and Tuesday.

Argentina (Corn, Soybean, Wheat)

Summary...Cordoba, Sante Fe, Buenos Aires, La Pampa.

Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged below normal

yesterday.

Forecast...

Dry today. Dry or with only a few very light showers during Friday or

Saturday. Temperatures trend a little warmer today and Friday. Cooler in the

south, continued warmer north, during Saturday.

Mostly dry or with only a few light showers Sunday through Tuesday.

Temperatures average near to below normal Sunday, warmer Monday and Tuesday.

Joel Burgio

Brazil Coffee Weather - Feb 27

SAO PAULO AND MINAS GERAIS

SUMMARY- Mostly dry or a few light showers during the past 24 hours.

Temperatures 82-90F (29-32C).

FORECAST-

TODAY...Mostly dry conditions or a few light showers. Temperatures 82-90F

(28-32C).

TONIGHT...Mostly dry conditions. Temperatures 61-70F (16-21C).

TOMORROW...Mostly dry conditions or a few light showers. Temperatures 81-90F

(27-32C).

OUTLOOK...Scattered light showers, locally heavier Saturday and Sunday,

scattered showers and thundershowers Monday. Temperatures near to above normal

during this period.

BRAZIL COFFEE PROSPECTS...

Mostly above normal temperatures and limited rainfall during the next 5 days

will deplete soil moisture and increase stress. Some production losses are

possible. Some increase in showers is possible next week.

ICE Coffee Testing Weekly Trendline -- Technical Analysis

Dow Jones - Kira Brecht

  ICE May coffee futures pushed higher Wednesday, as the bulls continue to propel the market to

stronger price levels. Since late January, ICE May coffee has rocketed over 56% higher. The action

has turned the near and medium term trends firmly bullish in recent weeks. But, the market is now

bumping up against a long-term trendline drawn on the weekly continuation chart that could act as

resistance.

  ICE May coffee recently traded up 150 points at $1.7775, down from Tuesday's intraday peak at

$1.8125 a pound.

  Technically, the market has swept higher in recent weeks smashing through all significant moving

average resistance points on the daily chart. The ICE May coffee contract is now trading above all

important moving averages from the 20-day to the 200-day, which is a bullish signal generally for

the trend following crowd.

  The market, however, is overbought on both daily and weekly momentum indicators, but that is not a

surprise given the massive rally move seen since late January. Strongly trending markets can remain

overbought for days or even weeks. But, it is a sign that coffee prices are vulnerable to a

correction.

  Shifting out to the weekly ICE continuation chart, the coffee market has bumped into long-term

declining trendline resistance, drawn off the May 2011 and September 2011 weekly highs. That

trendline offers resistance this week around the 180.40 zone.

  Additionally, bullish targets and resistance points are also seen on the weekly continuation chart

at $1.8545, the Oct. 5, 2012 weekly high and the 190.85 zone, the July 20, 2012 swing high. Those

areas are both important swing highs and technical chart points.

  The ICE coffee contract has posted gains for the past four weeks, seen on the weekly continuation

chart. This Friday's settlement will be important to monitor. If the market can pierce the weekly

trendline resistance on a closing basis, it would register yet another strong bullish technical

signal. If the trendline holds firm, it could suggest a period of consolidation or even downside

correction was beginning.

On the daily ICE May chart, nearby support lies at the $1.6830-$1.6205 zone.

  Bottom line? The market has rallied to a critical long-term trendline test. If the market stalls

at the trendline, overbought conditions could usher in a consolidation phase.

Terra Forte cut its forecast by 12%

  SAO PAULO--Terra Forte, one of Brazil's biggest coffee exporters, cut its forecast for the 2014

harvest, saying an unprecedented drought has hurt the development of the coffee plants.

  The company cut its forecast to 47.4 million 60-kilogram (132-pound) bags of coffee, from its

previous forecast of 53.7 million bags. The harvest of arabica beans, the type most often used in

gourmet coffee, accounted for the entire reduction, with Terra Forte cutting its forecast to 30

million bags from 36.3 million bags.

Terra Forte's forecast for robusta beans was unchanged at 17.4 million bags.

  Brazil's main coffee-growing regions have been hit by the driest weather in at least 30 years,

according to meteorologists. The drought comes as the coffee cherries, the fruit from which the

beans are harvested, are developing.

  "I've never seen a January and February with no rain before, and I'm older than 50," said Joaquim

Leite, export director for Terra Forte.

  Arabica coffee prices are up 60% this year on concerns that less production or lower-quality

coffee from Brazil would crimp global supplies.

A seca e a cafeicultura: o que a fisiologia vegetal tem a explicar

Prof. José Donizeti Alves

Em vista dessa catástrofe que a cafeicultura brasileira está vivendo, gostaria de acrescentar alguns pontos que ainda não foram discutidos ou se foram, foi feito de maneira hipotética.

Muita coisa já se falou sobre os efeitos da seca na produção do café. E eu, me desculpe o trocadilho, não quero “chover no molhado”. O fato que ninguém contesta é que essa anormalidade meteorológica havia décadas não se manifestava. Pelo menos em termos de intensidade e durabilidade. Infelizmente dessa vez ela veio acompanhada de temperatura e luminosidade extremamente altas e ocorreu/ocorre em fases fenológicas das mais exigentes em termos de água, temperatura e luminosidade adequada.

As consequências práticas disso tudo também já foram mostradas e debatidas nesse espaço. Em termos de produção o que se vê é escaldadura das folhas; frutos pequenos, desidratados com descolamento do pergaminho (endurecido) da semente, mumificados, grãos mal formados, altíssima percentagem de grãos chochos. Todas essas anormalidades fisiológicas devem ser vista como BASTANTE ELEVADAS. Esta é a diferença fundamental dessa seca com as outras em anos passados. Ou seja: sem qualquer intenção de ser alarmista ou partidário do “quanto pior melhor”, a situação da cafeicultura brasileira desta vez é extremamente grave.  Conclusão óbvia: a safra de 2014 está fortemente comprometida tanto em termos de quantidade quando de qualidade.  Em minha opinião, depois de visitar várias regiões cafeeiras, deduzo que a perda vai variar entre 20 a 45% dependendo da região.

Em termos de crescimento vegetativo, a seca e o calor vieram em uma época de pleno crescimento de folhas e ramos. Portanto, ele também foi prejudicado. Isso equivale a dizer que a safra de 2016 também sofrerá reflexos negativos dessa estiagem. Como a fase de floração (não de florescimento) vai se iniciar nas próximas semanas, provavelmente, teremos problemas de indução de gemas reprodutivas o que vai refletir negativamente também na safra de 2015. Mas isso são assuntos para outra análise.

Preocupado com o momento atual, minha equipe foi ao campo (antes dos chuviscos da semana passada) para fazer um mapeamento da copa do cafeeiro mensurando vários parâmetros fisiológicos em um gradiente horizontal (da ponta dos ramos até o interior da copa, próximo ao tronco) e vertical (do ápice das plantas até a base da saia). Os dados estão sendo copilados, pois são objetos de uma dissertação de mestrado, mas preliminarmente revelaram aspectos interessantes e ainda não publicados na literatura cafeeira.

As folhas que às 5 horas da manhã tinham uma temperatura média de 21 °C (vejam que a noite estava quente) às 15 horas da tarde este valor subiu para 38°C. A temperatura da saia próxima ao tronco nesta mesma hora era de 33°C. Essas altas temperaturas, irá comprometer seriamente a fotossíntese, como se vera mais adiante.

O potencial hídrico que revela o grau de hidratação da planta, ou seja, a água que pode realizar trabalho, medido às cinco horas da manhã estava em -1,1 Mpa. Isto equivale a dizer o cafeeiro não recuperou à noite, a água perdida durante o dia. Isso porque a quantidade de água armazenada no solo não foi suficiente para tal. E para piorar, detectamos intensa morte de radicelas. De meio-dia até às 15 horas da tarde, o potencial hídrico tornou-se extremamente baixo atingindo, valores de -2,3 MPa. Este valor, para certas culturas significa “murcha permanente” ou morte da planta. Para o cafeeiro, segundo inúmeras pesquisas, é um valor que causa sérios danos, como queda na fotossíntese e translocação de carboidratos, murcha e queda de folhas, seca dos ponteiros, morte de raízes, queda no número e no rendimento de colheita, entre outros. O mais importante, o cafeeiro não morre e com a volta das chuvas ele recupera sua turgescência. Mas os danos causados pela perda de matéria seca (queda de folha, frutos e seca dos ponteiros) são irreversíveis.

Às nove horas da manhã, a fotossíntese, como é de se esperar, era a mais alta, mas o seu valor nas folhas da saia, foi em média, 64% menor quando comparado com aquelas do ápice. Da mesma maneira, as folhas mais internas da copa fotossintetizaram 54% menos que aquelas expostas ao sol. A partir dessa hora, a fotossíntese caiu substancialmente e às 15 horas, a região da copa com fotossíntese máxima apresentou uma taxa 75% menor quando comparada com a fotossíntese dessa mesma região as 9 horas. As folhas mais internas da copa, bem como as mais baixeiras, apresentaram taxas fotossintéticas próximas a zero.

Resumindo, considerando toda a copa do cafeeiro, a fotossíntese na maior parte do tempo operou em taxas extremamente insatisfatórias e em certos momentos negativa. Isso que dizer que o aporte de carbonos para o crescimento da planta, que equivale aos tijolos de uma parede em construção foi mínimo e em alguns casos, foram quebrados. E para quem entende pelo menos um pouco de bioquímica de plantas vera que esse ganho de carbono é suficiente apenas para a manutenção da planta viva. Muito pouco ou quase nada vai sobrar para o crescimento da planta, ou seja, se fosse uma construção não teria novas paredes e em alguns caso, haveria parede demolidas.

Com base nesses dados, agora, respondendo a inúmeras consultas que me fizeram, penso que, mesmo que as chuvas voltem, não haverá tempo suficiente (até que a estação seca e fria chegue) para o “enchimento dos frutos” e isso equivale a dizer que aquele espaço vazio, que muitos estão observando quando cortam os frutos transversalmente, não serão mais preenchidos, ou se forem, será muito pouco. Concluindo, a perda de rendimento na colheita, como muitos estão, empiricamente supondo, vai acontecer, com toda a certeza.

Essas minhas colocações vem no sentido de dar uma satisfação às pessoas que me perguntam por que até agora não me manifestei. Não o fiz, pois estava coletando dados de campo para poder fazer a afirmação que fiz no paragrafo anterior. Para não me prolongar mais, nos próximos dias darei continuidade ao assunto.

Prof. José Donizeti Alves

Universidade Federal de Lavras

Departamento de Biologia

Setor de Fisiologia Vegetal