World Coffee Weather

Brazil Slightly Cooler, Restricted Rainfall Into Weekend

By Andy Karst

           Kansas City, August 27 (World Weather, Inc.) – Some cooling was noted in Parana and southernmost Sao Paulo, Brazil Tuesday and the cooler air will advance northward during the balance of this week. Very little rain of significance will accompany the cooling trend, but there will be some precipitation mostly near the coast. Espirito Santo, Rio de Janeiro, Zona de Mata and eastern Bahia will be most vulnerable to showers Friday and Saturday with today and Thursday’s precipitation a little further south. Most interior coffee areas will not be impacted by much meaningful rain. Showers will return in southern crop areas next week and they may be more significant in the middle and latter part of the week, but not likely great enough for flowering.  A tropical disturbance located east of the Greater Antilles will move across the Caribbean Sea during the next several days and should not have much of an impact on coffee in the Greater Antilles other than a brief increase in shower and thunderstorm activity.  Another round of rain occurred in the Central Highlands of Vietnam Tuesday and conditions for coffee should continue to improve as additional rain is expected during the next week.  Beneficial rain fell on nearly all of Ivory Coast and Ghana Tuesday.

BRAZIL

            Mostly dry weather occurred in Brazil coffee areas Tuesday. The only rain noted was at the port city of Sao Paulo where 2 millimeters and east-central Bahia resulted. High temperatures Tuesday were in the middle and upper 20s Celsius in Parana and southwestern Sao Paulo and in the upper 20s to lower 30s in most other areas. Extreme highs of 34 to 36 occurred from northern Minas Gerais to central Bahia.  Lows this morning were 10 to 17 most often with readings of 18 to 22 in some northern and eastern areas. 

            Today’s forecast has not changed much from that of Tuesday. Totally dry weather is not likely through the weekend, but the few showers that occur periodically are most likely near the Atlantic coast and will generate 1 to 8 millimeters of rain most often with an infrequent occurrence of amounts to 15 millimeters. Friday and Saturday may be wettest from Espirito Santo to eastern Bahia. Most interior coffee areas will not be impacted by meaningful rain prior to next week.

            A more unstable atmosphere may evolve in southern Brazil coffee areas next week. Showers will begin in Parana and coastal Sao Paulo Monday and increase September 2-6 while spreading northeast to Rio de Janeiro.  A few showers may reach into Zona de Mata and Espirito Santo. Most of the daily rainfall will continue light varying from 3 to 10 millimeters with a rare occurrence of 15-20 millimeters. Most of the advertised rainfall is not expected to be great enough to change crop or soil conditions, but there will be more showers during that period of time than during any day this week.

                        Some additional cooling is expected today into the coming weekend in southern coffee production areas. The cooling trend will lower daily high temperatures to the lower and middle 20s south while staying mostly in the middle and upper 20s to lower 30s in the north. Lowest morning temperatures will be in the range of 8 to 15 in the south and 10 to 18 with a few readings over 20 in the north. In contrast, today will generate many highs in the upper 20s through the middle 30s with extreme highs of 35-37 in northern Minas Gerais and central Bahia.

Arabica-Coffee Futures Climb Above $2/lb

Leslie Josephs

  NEW YORK--Arabica-coffee futures rose above $2 a pound Wednesday as dry weather from Brazil to

Guatemala fed concerns over the world's supply of coffee.

  Arabica for December delivery on the ICE Futures U.S. exchange was up 2.1% at $2.0150 a pound, the

highest since Aug. 1.

  On Tuesday, the government of Guatemala, Central America's second-largest coffee grower after

Honduras, declared a state of emergency because of extreme drought.

  It is the latest threat to coffee production, which was already hit this year by a severe drought

in top grower Brazil. Industry groups and exporters have lowered their estimates for output this

year, which has sent prices to two-year highs, prompting roasters such as Folgers maker J.M. Smucker

Co. and Starbucks Corp. to raise prices. Arabica-coffee futures are up 81% this year.

  Guatemala "could be just like Brazil," said Jack Scoville, a vice president at Chicago brokerage

Price Futures Group. "The potential for lower crops this year and next are decent."

  Brazil's weather continues to fuel worries over coffee supplies. Early rains there followed by

current dry weather could cause coffee trees to abort flowers that opened early, said Rodrigo Costa,

coffee director at brokerage Newedge.

  That process would prevent coffee cherries, which contain the seeds that are roasted and ground to

make coffee beverages, from developing.

  In other markets, raw sugar for October delivery was up 1.1% at 15.88 cents a pound, following an

estimate showing the world's sugar surplus slipping next year.

  Global sugar production is likely to outpace demand by 1.3 million metric tons by Sept. 30, 2015,

the London-based said Tuesday. While that would be the fifth consecutive surplus, it is about a

quarter of the surplus the ISO has forecast for the current year.

  November orange-juice concentrate was up 0.2% at $1.5195 a pound, while December cocoa was 0.5%

lower at $3,199 a ton. December cotton was 0.1% lower at 66.83 cents a pound.

Produção de café do Brasil terá maior queda desde 1965

A produção do Brasil, maior produtor do mundo, pode cair 18 por cento quando a colheita terminar no mês que vem

Bloomberg  

A seca prolongada no Brasil já custou metade da colheita do café de José Francisco Pereira. No ano que vem pode ser ainda pior e o país está a caminho da primeira queda de três anos na produção desde 1965.

"Todos estão rezando pela chuva", disse Pereira, diretor-geral da Monte Alegre Coffees, uma produtora dona de 2.500 hectares com sede em Alfenas, Minas Gerais, que previu uma colheita de 45.000 sacas nesta safra, abaixo das 82.000 da temporada passada.

A produção do Brasil, maior produtor do mundo, pode cair 18 por cento quando a colheita terminar no mês que vem, para 40,1 milhões de sacas, estima o Conselho Nacional do Café, após um declínio de 3,1 por cento no ano passado. Com a piora dos danos antes do início da primavera no Hemisfério Sul, o conselho disse que os agricultores poderão colher menos de 40 milhões de sacas em 2015, criando a queda mais longa em três décadas.

O Citigroup Inc. previu em 21 de agosto que o déficit global na produção pode durar até 2016 por causa da escassez no Brasil, que no ano passado respondeu por 36 por cento da oferta mundial.

Os contratos futuros, que se valorizaram mais que os de qualquer outra commodity neste ano, podem subir mais 19 por cento até o fim de dezembro, para US$ 2,25 a libra-peso (454 gramas), mostrou uma consulta da Bloomberg a 18 analistas. O incremento está forçando compradores como a J.M. Smucker Co., produtora da Folgers, a marca mais vendida dos EUA, a elevar os preços no varejo.

"O mercado está vulnerável ao incremento devido a todos os problemas no Brasil", disse ontem Donald Selkin, que ajuda a gerenciar US$ 3 bilhões como estrategista-chefe de mercado da National Securities Corp. em Nova York. "As pessoas estão prevendo ofertas mais apertadas e esperando evoluções climáticas mais drásticas".

Commodity sobe
O café arábica subiu 71 por cento neste ano, para US$ 1,892, na ICE Futures U.S., o maior ganho entre 22 matérias-primas no índice Bloomberg Commodity, que caiu 0,1 por cento. O índice de ações MSCI All-Country World subiu 5,4 por cento no mesmo período. O índice Bloomberg Treasury Bond teve um incremento de 4,1 por cento.

O Brasil está enfrentando sua pior seca em décadas. Os reservatórios das regiões Sudeste e Centro-Oeste, onde está a maioria das plantações de café do país, estavam em menos de 32 por cento de sua capacidade em 24 de agosto, contra a média de 59,3 por cento em agosto nos 13 anos anteriores, segundo a Operadora Nacional do Sistema Elétrico, a ONS. O Brasil gera cerca de 70 por cento de sua energia com usinas hidrelétricas.

Agravando os danos à colheita deste ano, em julho chuvas torrenciais inesperadas levaram ao florescimento prematuro de árvores cujos frutos já haviam sido colhidos. Quando o clima seco retornou neste mês, as flores murcharam e caíram, prejudicando ainda mais o rendimento potencial para 2015.

Demanda crescente
A colheita menor do Brasil e o consumo crescente redundarão em um déficit da produção global de até 10 milhões de sacas no ano que começa em 1º de outubro, disse a Organização Internacional do Café, em Londres, em 1º de agosto. A Volcafé Ltd., operadora de commodities da ED&F Man Holdings Ltd., estimou o déficit em 11,3 milhões de sacas. Cerca de 58 por cento da produção mundial é de café arábica, o grão preferido pela Starbucks, enquanto o restante é da variedade robusta, usada em café instantâneos e nos blends.

Muito do dano para a colheita da próxima safra pode já ter sido feito no Brasil.

"O crescimento foi muito lento", disse Alemar Braga Rena, pesquisador independente e professor de Agronomia aposentado da Universidade Federal de Viçosa, em Minas Gerais. "As raízes são o cérebro da planta e elas foram prejudicadas pelo calor e pela falta de água, o que as tornou incapazes de absorver nutrientes".