Early Ag Weather Watch - Feb 28

EARLY LOOK WEATHER REPORT

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...84 AT THERMAL CA

LOW  THU...36 BELOW ZERO AT CRANE LAKE MN AND KABETOGAMA MN

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 06:00 PM CT...LOS ANGELES CA  1.07 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

The US and European models are in fair to good agreement during the next 5-7

days, only fair agreement during days 8-10. I am using a compromise between the

models as it concerns the 8-10 day period but with a slight bias towards the US

model.

The short range maps, days 1-5, first deal with the extreme cold event

currently moving over the central US region and then deal with a major snow and

ice storm set up for the eastern and southern Midwest and northern Delta areas.

The longer range maps from today's US model shows some moderation in

temperatures early in the 6-10 day period but with more cold weather possible

late in the period...especially over the Midwest region. Precipitation light to

locally moderate will favor the east and south Midwest and the Delta. The

European model suggests the moderation in temperatures lasts longer into the

6-10 day period and the cooler conditions at the end of the period are not as

cold looking as on the US model. Precipitation mostly light and confined to the

east and south Midwest and Delta. Neither model shows anything of significance

for the central/south plains wheat belt during the 6-10 day period. The US

model has some precipitation during days 1-3 while the European models is even

lighter then that.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

ARGENTINA: Mostly dry weather with a warming trend during the 6 day period.

This will favor developing crops, after recent heavy rains. A possible

exception to this is over eastern Buenos Aires where a few thunderstorms may

develop, associated with an upper level trough.

BRAZIL SOYBEANS/CORN: Periodic scattered showers and seasonal temperatures will

favor filling crops and early developing second crop corn. Local delays

continue for harvesting the early crops and planting the second crop corn due

to showers. The pattern does not look as wet during the coming days which

should allow for some improvement, except of course in areas impacted by local

thundershowers.

BRAZIL COFFEE, CITRUS, SUGARCANE AREAS: A cold front moves into the main crop

areas today and drifts through the north and east areas tomorrow and Sunday.

This should lead to light to moderate showers which will help ease stress to

developing crops. Somewhat drier and hotter weather may redevelop early next

week. The next chance for scattered showers appears to be late in the week.

CENTRAL/SOUTH PLAINS: Scattered light to locally moderate precipitation during

this weekend will favor dormant winter wheat. Only minor concerns for livestock

areas of the western plains.

MIDWEST: Extreme cold continues to greatly increase usage of natural gas for

heating during the next 5-6 days. Somewhat less cold is possible after that. A

major snow and ice event is shaping up for the southern and eastern Midwest and

the northern Delta region for the weekend period. This likely impacts travel

and transport for these locations. Somewhat less snow is expected in Iowa,

especially northern Iowa, with this system. It does not appear cold enough to

harm Soft Red Wheat in areas that do not have a protective snow cover.

SOUTH AFRICA: Warm to hot temperatures today will be followed by scattered

showers and thundershowers during the weekend period and early next week. This

is mostly a favorable weather pattern for filling maize and developing

sugarcane.

CHINA: Moderate to locally heavy snow and rain has occurred through central and

southern winter wheat areas of eastern China and through most winter rapeseed

areas during February. This will help to replenish soil moisture and it will

favor crops when they break dormancy in the spring. Snow to the north was not

as heavy but still fairly significant for this time of the year. Snow and ice

and to a lesser extent rain will have delayed transportation somewhat. The

weather pattern currently favors additional chances for snow or rain through

the Yangtze river valley and the southern part of the North China Plain.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES/FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

WEST: Dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged much, much below

normal yesterday.

EAST: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged below to much

below normal.

Forecast....

WEST: Chance for light snow or snow showers later today or during tonight,

favoring northern areas. Light to locally moderate snow may develop through

central and southern areas during Saturday. Snow and mixed precipitation may

continue during Sunday for Missouri while the balance of the region is drier.

Temperatures averaged much, much below normal. The average of the high and low

this Sunday may be 30 degrees or more below normal.

Mostly dry Monday. Dry or with only a little light snow in northern areas

Tuesday and Wednesday. The extreme cold continues Monday and early Tuesday, not

as cold but still well below normal later Tuesday and during Wednesday.

EAST: Dry or with only a few afternoon snow showers today. Light snow may occur

through northern and western areas during Saturday or Saturday night. Heavier

snow and freezing rain is expected during Sunday, Sunday night and early

Monday. Precipitation totals are expected to reach 0.50-1.50 inches either side

of the Ohio river with heavy snow or a major ice storm possible. Precipitation

of 0.25 inch or more may reach north to just south of Chicago and Detroit.

Temperatures average much, much below normal during this period.

Snow may linger through southeast areas early Monday, dry later Monday. Dry

or with only a little light snow or snow showers Tuesday and Wednesday.

Temperatures average well below normal during this period.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average below normal during this

period. Precipitation should average near to above normal through the south and

east areas, near to below normal northwest.

Forecast: Mostly dry or with only a few scattered snow showers today. Chance

for light to locally moderate snow, ice and rain showers during Saturday and

early Sunday. Precipitation totals likely average 0.10-0.50 inch through

eastern areas, mostly 0.10 inch or less through the west. Temperatures average

below normal north and above normal south today, below normal north and central

areas and above normal south Saturday, below or well below normal Sunday.

Mostly dry Monday and Tuesday. Dry or with only a few light showers during

Wednesday. Temperatures average well below normal Monday, below or well below

normal Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday.

6-10 Day Outlook...Temperatures are expected to vary somewhat during this

period. Precipitation averages near to below normal.

Brazil (Corn, Soybeans, Citrus, Coffee, Sugarcane)

Summary...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana: Scattered light to moderate showers were reported

in eastern Parana yesterday. Mostly dry elsewhere in the region during the past

24 hours. Temperatures averaged near normal in northern Parana, below normal

elsewhere in the region.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and Goias: A few thundershowers occurred yesterday or

overnight last night in Mato Grosso and western Goias. Mostly dry elsewhere in

the region. Temperatures averaged near to below normal in MGDS, near to above

normal elsewhere in the region.

Sao Paulo/Minas Gerais: Mostly dry yesterday. Scattered showers and

thundershowers have moved into Sao Paulo overnight. Temperatures averaged above

normal yesterday. Highs averaging 90-95F (32-35C) in most areas.

Forecast...

Rio Grande do Sul, Parana, MGDS: Mostly dry today and Saturday. Chance for a

few light to locally moderate showers Sunday or Sunday night. Temperatures

average below normal today, near to below normal Saturday, near to above normal

Sunday.

Scattered light to moderate showers and thundershowers are possible Monday

and Tuesday. Drier in the south, lingering showers and thundershowers north,

during Wednesday. Temperatures average near to below normal south, near to

above normal north.

Sao Paulo/Minas Gerais: Scattered light to moderate showers and thundershowers,

0.25-0.75 inch (6-20 mm) and locally heavier, develop in Sao Paulo today and

move into Minas Gerais tonight or during Saturday. A few light showers with

locally heavier may linger in the region Sunday. Temperatures average near to

above normal today, near to below normal tomorrow, near to above normal Sunday.

Mostly dry or with only a few light showers during Monday. Scattered showers

during Tuesday and Wednesday will mainly occur in west and south Sao Paulo.

Temperatures average near to above normal Monday through Wednesday.

Argentina (Corn, Soybean, Wheat)

Summary...Cordoba, Sante Fe, Buenos Aires, La Pampa.

Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged below normal

yesterday.

Forecast...

Mostly dry or with only a few light showers through eastern Buenos Aires

during today through Sunday. Temperatures may turn warmer today and Saturday,

cooler again Sunday.

A few showers and thundershowers may develop in eastern Buenos Aires Monday

and early Tuesday. Drier again later Tuesday and during Wednesday. The balance

of the region continues mostly dry or with only a few very light showers Monday

through Wednesday. Temperatures average near to above normal in the west, near

to below normal east.

Joel Burgio

http://www.noticiasagricolas.com.br/videos/entrevistas/135708-entrevista-confira-a-entrevista-com-jose-braz-matiello---eng-agronomo-fund-procafe.html#.UxBMB3l8OUk

Entrevista com José Braz Matiello - Eng. Agrônomo Fund. Procafé

Minas Gerais completa 60 dias sem chuvas e grãos de café que não foram formados, por conta da seca, não podem ser recuperados. Chuvas satisfatórias são previstas para daqui a 10 dias e prejuízos devem continuar avançando, principalmente em lavouras mais novas.

Commodities Market Impact Weather: Snow and Ice in Midwest

  OMAHA - A snow and ice storm for the Midwest and mostly favorable trends in South America are the

primary weather items for the commodity trade's attention Friday.

MIDWEST SNOW AND ICE STORM

  The DTN ag weather forecast calls for extreme cold in the Midwest to greatly increase usage of

natural gas for heating during the next five to six days. Somewhat less cold weather is possible

after that. A major snow and ice event is shaping up for the southern and eastern Midwest and the

northern Delta region for the weekend. This likely will disrupt travel and transportation for these

locations. Somewhat less snow is expected in Iowa, especially northern Iowa, with this system. It

does not appear cold enough to harm soft red winter wheat in areas that do not have a protective

snow cover.

LIGHT SOUTHERN PLAINS WEEKEND MOISTURE

  Southern Plains wheat areas will see scattered light to locally moderate precipitation during this

weekend, which will favor dormant winter wheat. The upcoming storm system is expected to generate

only minor concerns for livestock areas of the western Plains.

SCATTERED BRAZIL ROW-CROP AREA SHOWERS

  Across Brazil's row-crop areas, periodic scattered showers and seasonal temperatures will favor

filling crops and early-developing second crop corn. Local delays continue for harvesting the early

crops and planting the second crop corn due to showers. The pattern does not look as wet during the

coming days, which should allow for some improvement, except in areas affected by local

thundershowers.

WEEKEND SHOWERS IN BRAZIL COFFEE AREAS

  A cold front moves into the main Brazil coffee and sugar cane areas Friday and drifts through the

north and east areas during the weekend. This should lead to light to moderate showers which will

help ease stress to developing crops. Somewhat drier and hotter weather may redevelop early next

week. The next chance for scattered showers appears to be late in the week.

DRY AND WARM IN ARGENTINA

  Central Argentina will have mostly dry weather with a warming trend during the six-day period.

This will favor developing crops, after recent heavy rains. A possible exception to this is over

eastern Buenos Aires where a few thunderstorms may develop.

FAVORABLE CHINA SOIL MOISTURE

  Moderate to locally heavy snow and rain has occurred through central and southern winter wheat

areas of eastern China and through most winter rapeseed areas during February. This will help to

replenish soil moisture and it will favor crops when they break dormancy in the spring. Snow to the

north was not as heavy, but still fairly significant for this time of the year. Snow and ice, and to

a lesser extent rain, will delay transportation somewhat. The weather pattern currently favors

additional chances for snow or rain through the Yangtze River valley and the southern part of the

North China Plain.

WEEKEND RAINFALL FOR SOUTH AFRICA

  Across South Africa, warm to hot weather Friday will be followed by scattered showers and

thundershowers during the weekend and early next week. This is mostly a favorable weather pattern

for filling maize and developing sugarcane.

Robusta Coffee Gains; Vietnamese Supply Tight -- Market Talk

Robusta coffee futures are higher, with Liffe's March contract up 0.3% on the

day at $2,105/tonne. "Movement [of coffee] from Vietnam continues to be slow as domestic prices,

while improved, are not high enough to generate much in the way of product flows," says Sterling

Smith, a futures specialist at Citigroup. "Vietnamese producers are willing to hold beans, as when

Arabica supplies begin to tighten roasters may be inclined to blend more Robusta." Arabica is a more

expensive coffee bean, used in gourmet blends. The majority of robusta production is used for

intstant coffee powders.

With arabica, sugar volatile, ICE tweaks trading limit rules

Reuters - Feb 27, 2014 

ICE Futures U.S. on Thursday broadened its rules designed to limit volatility for the second time in a week, as its coffee and raw sugar markets face unusual volatility, with arabica marking its biggest monthly surge in 20 years.

The exchange said it will reject limit orders placed outside of the maximum trading range designed to prevent "fat finger errors" by errant traders starting March 10. The amendment to the rule, called a reasonability limit, means that any limit order to sell below the limit or to buy above it, at the time the order is entered, will be rejected.

Currently, certain conditions allow some of these orders to be accepted.

This latest revision comes just a week after the exchange raised the reasonability limit levels for its arabica coffee futures contracts as the market became increasingly volatile, with speculative buying pouring into the market on concern about drought damage in top grower Brazil.

Café tem nova alta e posição maio fica próxima dos 180 cents na ICE

Os contratos futuros de café arábica negociados na ICE Futures US encerraram esta quinta-feira com altas, com a posição maio, mais uma vez, voltando a flutuar num patamar próximo ao nível psicológico de 180,00centavos. Diante das fortes volatilidades recentes, o que se verificou na casa de comercialização norte-americana ao longo do dia foi digno de se classificar como calma. Os preços não variaram de forma tão intensa e, ao longo de boa parte do pregão, o maio tendeu a gravitar perto do referencial psicológico. Mais uma vez, o clima esteve na ordem do dia dos operadores. Algumas chuvas são esperadas para o cinturão cafeeiro do Brasil no final de semana e também nos feriados de Carnaval, mas poucos se arriscam em avaliar se essas precipitações serão suficientes para interromper o atual déficit hídrico, que afeta sobremaneira o enchimento dos grãos. Independentemente disso, os participantes também já trabalham com cenários de cálculo de perdas. Quase que a maioria dos agrônomos e especialistas afirma que a quebra é irreversível, mas ainda não se tem um percentual de quanto será a diminuição da safra. Por sua vez, também existe o problema da qualidade. Várias regiões do Brasil observam que os grão sem formação estão com tamanhos menores que os tradicionais e não são poucas as áreas cafeeiras que aferem um número grande de grãos chochos, cujo valor de mercado é muito menor.

No encerramento do dia em Nova Iorque, a posição maio teve alta de 160 pontos, com 179,30 centavos de dólar por libra peso, com a máxima em 180,70 centavos e a mínima de 176,40 centavos, com o julho registrando ganho de 155 pontos, com 181,20 centavos por libra, com a máxima em 182,45 centavos e a mínima em 178,40 centavos. Na Euronext/Liffe, o março teve alta de 78 dólares, com 2.099 dólares por tonelada, com o maio tendo valorização de 38 dólares, para o nível de 2.034 dólares por tonelada.

De acordo com analistas internacionais, o dia apresentou um caráter menos intenso, até com algum viés consolidativo. Diante da manutenção das incertezas, alguns desses especialistas avaliaram que o nível de 180,00centavos pode ser um "porto seguro" para alguns players, que não se sentem muito afeitos a liquidar, já que poderiam ser surpreendidos com números de disponibilidade ainda mais severos que os ventilados, mas que também crêem que não conveniente ficar comprando de maneira exacerbada. No segmento externo, o dia foi de alta para as bolsas de valores nos Estados Unidos e queda do dólar ante uma cesta de moedas internacionais. Nas commodities softs, alta para praticamente todas as matérias-primas.

"As dúvidas se mantêm recorrentes sobre a extensão dos prejuízos nas lavouras brasileiras de café. Vamos ter um efeito na disponibilidade global do grão e, com a provável ocorrência de um déficit da oferta, os estoques deverão recuar ainda mais. Lembrando que os volumes armazenados já se encontram num viés de baixa, notadamente os certificados nas bolsas de Nova Iorque e Londres. E a tendência, em geral, é de terminais em alta quando os estoques se mostram baixos", disse um trader.

As remessas internacionais para diversos destinos de café do Vietnã deverão apresentar alta de 60% em volume e de 36% em receita neste mês de fevereiro, na comparação com o mesmo período de 2013, de acordo com cálculos do Escritório de Estatísticas Gerais do Vietnã. Em volume, as vendas para o exterior deverão somar 160 mil toneladas no mês, e em receita, 298 milhões de dólares. Em janeiro, o Vietnã embarcou 143 mil toneladas, ao passo que a receita cambial somou 265 milhões de dólares. No acumulado da safra atual (01de outubro de 2013 a 31 de janeiro), o Vietnã embarcou 580 mil toneladas de café, contra 706 mil toneladas vendidas para o exterior no período anterior. A receita acumulada soma 1,084 bilhão de dólares, 38,7% a menos que os 1,494 bilhão do mesmo período de 2012/2013.

As exportações brasileiras de café no mês de fevereiro, até o dia 26, totalizaram  1.680.031 sacas, alta de 6,39% em relação às1.579.490 sacas embarcadas no mesmo período do mês anterior, de acordo com informações do Cecafé (Conselho dos Exportadores de Café do Brasil).

Os estoques certificados de café na bolsa de Nova Iorque tiveram queda de 2.475 sacas, indo para 2.624.503 sacas.

Tecnicamente, o maio na ICE Futures US tem resistência180,70, 181,00, 181,25, 181,50, 182,00, 182,50, 183,00, 183,50-183,60, 184,00,184,50, 184,90-185,00, 185,50, 186,00 e 186,50 centavos de dólar, com o suporte em 176,40, 176,00, 175,50, 175,00, 174,50, 174,00, 173,50, 173,00, 172,50,172,00, 171,50, 171,05-171,00, 170,50, 170,10-170,00, 169,70, 169,50, 169,00 e168,50 centavos.

Londres mantém ritmo positivo e fica acima dos US$ 2 mil

Os contratos futuros de café robusta negociados na Euronext/Liffe encerraram esta quinta-feira com altas, mais uma vez com aposição maio gravitando proximamente do nível especulativo de 2.000 dólares. O volume comercializado se manteve perto da média recente da bolsa londrina, que continua a dar a demonstração de ter um mercado sustentado e com possibilidade de até mesmo buscar níveis mais consistentes.

De acordo com analistas internacionais, o dia foi caracterizado por uma tentativa inicial de pressão aos preços, no entanto, o máximo conseguido pelos vendedores foi levar o maio até a mínima de 1.998dólares. A partir daí, várias compras especulativas passaram a ser identificadas, com a máxima atingindo 2.042 dólares. Algumas vendas ligeiras foram identificadas nesse nível, mas não o suficiente para inverter o quadro.

"Continuamos a acompanhar, ainda que a uma certa distância, o que ocorre com os arábicas em Nova Iorque. Aqueles cafés subiram bem mais que os robustas, mas, esse movimento permitiu que a volta dos vietnamitas às mesas de comercialização não produzissem pressão. Pelo contrário, as cotações voltaram a ganhar corpo e o nível de 2 mil dólares foi buscado. Efetivamente, o temor com a quebra de safra do Brasil reflete positivamente também nos preços em Londres", disse um trader.

O março teve uma movimentação ao longo do dia de 2,07 mil contratos, contra 10,9 mil do maio. O spread entre as posições março e maio ficou em 65 dólares.

No encerramento do dia, o março teve alta de 78 dólares, com2.099 dólares por tonelada, com o maio tendo valorização de 38 dólares, para o nível de 2.034 dólares por tonelada.