Early Ag Weather Watch - Feb 28

EARLY LOOK WEATHER REPORT

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...84 AT THERMAL CA

LOW  THU...36 BELOW ZERO AT CRANE LAKE MN AND KABETOGAMA MN

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 06:00 PM CT...LOS ANGELES CA  1.07 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

The US and European models are in fair to good agreement during the next 5-7

days, only fair agreement during days 8-10. I am using a compromise between the

models as it concerns the 8-10 day period but with a slight bias towards the US

model.

The short range maps, days 1-5, first deal with the extreme cold event

currently moving over the central US region and then deal with a major snow and

ice storm set up for the eastern and southern Midwest and northern Delta areas.

The longer range maps from today's US model shows some moderation in

temperatures early in the 6-10 day period but with more cold weather possible

late in the period...especially over the Midwest region. Precipitation light to

locally moderate will favor the east and south Midwest and the Delta. The

European model suggests the moderation in temperatures lasts longer into the

6-10 day period and the cooler conditions at the end of the period are not as

cold looking as on the US model. Precipitation mostly light and confined to the

east and south Midwest and Delta. Neither model shows anything of significance

for the central/south plains wheat belt during the 6-10 day period. The US

model has some precipitation during days 1-3 while the European models is even

lighter then that.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

ARGENTINA: Mostly dry weather with a warming trend during the 6 day period.

This will favor developing crops, after recent heavy rains. A possible

exception to this is over eastern Buenos Aires where a few thunderstorms may

develop, associated with an upper level trough.

BRAZIL SOYBEANS/CORN: Periodic scattered showers and seasonal temperatures will

favor filling crops and early developing second crop corn. Local delays

continue for harvesting the early crops and planting the second crop corn due

to showers. The pattern does not look as wet during the coming days which

should allow for some improvement, except of course in areas impacted by local

thundershowers.

BRAZIL COFFEE, CITRUS, SUGARCANE AREAS: A cold front moves into the main crop

areas today and drifts through the north and east areas tomorrow and Sunday.

This should lead to light to moderate showers which will help ease stress to

developing crops. Somewhat drier and hotter weather may redevelop early next

week. The next chance for scattered showers appears to be late in the week.

CENTRAL/SOUTH PLAINS: Scattered light to locally moderate precipitation during

this weekend will favor dormant winter wheat. Only minor concerns for livestock

areas of the western plains.

MIDWEST: Extreme cold continues to greatly increase usage of natural gas for

heating during the next 5-6 days. Somewhat less cold is possible after that. A

major snow and ice event is shaping up for the southern and eastern Midwest and

the northern Delta region for the weekend period. This likely impacts travel

and transport for these locations. Somewhat less snow is expected in Iowa,

especially northern Iowa, with this system. It does not appear cold enough to

harm Soft Red Wheat in areas that do not have a protective snow cover.

SOUTH AFRICA: Warm to hot temperatures today will be followed by scattered

showers and thundershowers during the weekend period and early next week. This

is mostly a favorable weather pattern for filling maize and developing

sugarcane.

CHINA: Moderate to locally heavy snow and rain has occurred through central and

southern winter wheat areas of eastern China and through most winter rapeseed

areas during February. This will help to replenish soil moisture and it will

favor crops when they break dormancy in the spring. Snow to the north was not

as heavy but still fairly significant for this time of the year. Snow and ice

and to a lesser extent rain will have delayed transportation somewhat. The

weather pattern currently favors additional chances for snow or rain through

the Yangtze river valley and the southern part of the North China Plain.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES/FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

WEST: Dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged much, much below

normal yesterday.

EAST: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged below to much

below normal.

Forecast....

WEST: Chance for light snow or snow showers later today or during tonight,

favoring northern areas. Light to locally moderate snow may develop through

central and southern areas during Saturday. Snow and mixed precipitation may

continue during Sunday for Missouri while the balance of the region is drier.

Temperatures averaged much, much below normal. The average of the high and low

this Sunday may be 30 degrees or more below normal.

Mostly dry Monday. Dry or with only a little light snow in northern areas

Tuesday and Wednesday. The extreme cold continues Monday and early Tuesday, not

as cold but still well below normal later Tuesday and during Wednesday.

EAST: Dry or with only a few afternoon snow showers today. Light snow may occur

through northern and western areas during Saturday or Saturday night. Heavier

snow and freezing rain is expected during Sunday, Sunday night and early

Monday. Precipitation totals are expected to reach 0.50-1.50 inches either side

of the Ohio river with heavy snow or a major ice storm possible. Precipitation

of 0.25 inch or more may reach north to just south of Chicago and Detroit.

Temperatures average much, much below normal during this period.

Snow may linger through southeast areas early Monday, dry later Monday. Dry

or with only a little light snow or snow showers Tuesday and Wednesday.

Temperatures average well below normal during this period.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average below normal during this

period. Precipitation should average near to above normal through the south and

east areas, near to below normal northwest.

Forecast: Mostly dry or with only a few scattered snow showers today. Chance

for light to locally moderate snow, ice and rain showers during Saturday and

early Sunday. Precipitation totals likely average 0.10-0.50 inch through

eastern areas, mostly 0.10 inch or less through the west. Temperatures average

below normal north and above normal south today, below normal north and central

areas and above normal south Saturday, below or well below normal Sunday.

Mostly dry Monday and Tuesday. Dry or with only a few light showers during

Wednesday. Temperatures average well below normal Monday, below or well below

normal Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday.

6-10 Day Outlook...Temperatures are expected to vary somewhat during this

period. Precipitation averages near to below normal.

Brazil (Corn, Soybeans, Citrus, Coffee, Sugarcane)

Summary...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana: Scattered light to moderate showers were reported

in eastern Parana yesterday. Mostly dry elsewhere in the region during the past

24 hours. Temperatures averaged near normal in northern Parana, below normal

elsewhere in the region.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and Goias: A few thundershowers occurred yesterday or

overnight last night in Mato Grosso and western Goias. Mostly dry elsewhere in

the region. Temperatures averaged near to below normal in MGDS, near to above

normal elsewhere in the region.

Sao Paulo/Minas Gerais: Mostly dry yesterday. Scattered showers and

thundershowers have moved into Sao Paulo overnight. Temperatures averaged above

normal yesterday. Highs averaging 90-95F (32-35C) in most areas.

Forecast...

Rio Grande do Sul, Parana, MGDS: Mostly dry today and Saturday. Chance for a

few light to locally moderate showers Sunday or Sunday night. Temperatures

average below normal today, near to below normal Saturday, near to above normal

Sunday.

Scattered light to moderate showers and thundershowers are possible Monday

and Tuesday. Drier in the south, lingering showers and thundershowers north,

during Wednesday. Temperatures average near to below normal south, near to

above normal north.

Sao Paulo/Minas Gerais: Scattered light to moderate showers and thundershowers,

0.25-0.75 inch (6-20 mm) and locally heavier, develop in Sao Paulo today and

move into Minas Gerais tonight or during Saturday. A few light showers with

locally heavier may linger in the region Sunday. Temperatures average near to

above normal today, near to below normal tomorrow, near to above normal Sunday.

Mostly dry or with only a few light showers during Monday. Scattered showers

during Tuesday and Wednesday will mainly occur in west and south Sao Paulo.

Temperatures average near to above normal Monday through Wednesday.

Argentina (Corn, Soybean, Wheat)

Summary...Cordoba, Sante Fe, Buenos Aires, La Pampa.

Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged below normal

yesterday.

Forecast...

Mostly dry or with only a few light showers through eastern Buenos Aires

during today through Sunday. Temperatures may turn warmer today and Saturday,

cooler again Sunday.

A few showers and thundershowers may develop in eastern Buenos Aires Monday

and early Tuesday. Drier again later Tuesday and during Wednesday. The balance

of the region continues mostly dry or with only a few very light showers Monday

through Wednesday. Temperatures average near to above normal in the west, near

to below normal east.

Joel Burgio