Early Ag Weather Watch - Oct 22
EARLY LOOK WEATHER REPORT
NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:
HIGH TUE...95 AT EL CENTRO NAS CA AND PALM SPRINGS CA AND BULLHEAD CITY AZ
LOW TUE...22 AT MOUNT WASHINGTON NH
24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 06:00 PM CDT: W PALM BEACH FL 2.64 INCHES
US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:
The US and European models are not in very good agreement during the 6-10
day period today. I am using a little more of today's European model and my
ideas from yesterday. However, there is much uncertainty in the outlook today.
The models both show the first trough over the plains at day 6 moving east
and lifting north during the middle of the period. This is where the
similarities end. Today's US model shows another trough, much stronger than the
first, moving over the western US before crossing the Rockies and moving into
the plains later in the period. This model also hints at a significant northern
branch trough dropping southward over the Canadian Prairies before moving into
the north-central US and eventually merging with the first trough over the
plains. If real this would suggest a turn to colder weather through the middle
of the country and a turn to wet weather for the plains and Midwest regions.
This model also picks up on a low moving out of the Caribbean and into the Gulf
of Mexico during the outlook period, suggesting a potential tropical storm or
hurricane. The US model is showing a complex weather pattern for next week and
is unlikely to verify on all aspects of this pattern. However, it is difficult
to choose which aspect might verify or if any of the ideas of the model would
verify at all. The European model shows the western trough dropping southward
over the west coast states during the outlook period and remaining west of the
Rockies through day 10. The European model does not see the Caribbean system at
all and it is further north and more eastward moving with the Canadian trough
during the period. I would like to go with this model with no regrets, however
this is the same model that yesterday showed a cut off low moving over the
southern plains region during the outlook period.
MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:
MATO GROSSO/GOIAS, BRAZIL (SOYBEANS): There appears to be some chance for
increasing shower activity for Mato Grosso and Goias at the end of this week
and also during the extended range outlook. However, it is still not clear
whether or not this means normal rains for the region. If the rainfall comes in
less than expected the temperatures would remain hot and planting delays will
continue.
SAO PAULO AND MINAS GERAIS BRAZIL (COFFEE, SUGARCANE): Sprinkles and light
showers early this week were not enough to ease stress to coffee trees that
should be flowering at this time of the year or to recently planted new crop
sugarcane. The next chance for scattered showers comes this weekend. This rain
chance may favor areas north and east of Sao Paulo and southwest Minas Gerais.
If verified this would imply a better chance for significant showers in major
coffee areas and a somewhat less chance in key sugarcane and citrus areas.
MIDWEST: Mostly favorable conditions for the delayed harvest of summer crops
and the planting effort for winter wheat during the next 5 days. After that
period the weather pattern is more uncertain in nature.
DELTA: Mainly dry weather is forecast to continue for at least the next 5 to 7
days, possibly longer. This should help improve conditions for mature crops and
the harvest as well as for planting winter wheat.
NORTH PLAINS: Mostly dry weather and warm temperatures during the next 5-7 days
will favor crop dry down and harvest progress.
CENTRAL/SOUTH PLAINS: Drier weather will improve field conditions for the
harvest of summer crops and the planting effort for winter wheat. Soil moisture
supplied by recent rains will favor development of earlier planted winter
wheat.
SOUTH AFRICA (MAIZE/SUGARCANE): Drier weather covers most north and west maize
areas during the next 7-10 days along with hotter temperatures. This likely
means delays to planting maize in these locations. The southeast maize and the
major sugarcane areas may see afternoon showers or thundershowers during this
period and less hot weather. This favors planting of maize and development of
sugarcane for these locations.
UKRAINE/WEST AND SOUTH RUSSIA: A cold high pressure system will move southward
to cover the Central Region, the Black Soils Region and the Volga valley of
Russia during the next 5 days. This may favor fall field work but it will also
slow development of winter wheat.
INDIA: Monsoon showers continue for the southern and west-central areas of the
south India region at this time. Little elsewhere in the region. Drier weather
favors maturing summer crops and any harvesting. However, dry weather may be
unfavorable for late filling summer crops and any early developing winter crops
at this time.
TROPICS: Tropical depression 9, with 35 mph winds, was located near 19.4n/92.3w
at 4 am CDT today or over the Bay of Campeche in the southwest Gulf of Mexico
and 120 miles west-southwest of Campeche, Mexico. The system has been moving
towards the east at 6 mph. It is expected to become a tropical storm today
before moving inland over the southwest Yucatan Peninsula tonight and Thursday.
The system should continue to weaken as it moves across the southern Yucatan
Peninsula Thursday and Thursday night. It emerges into the Caribbean Sea during
Friday and continues eastward from there.
EXPANDED SUMMARIES/FORECASTS:
Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat
Summary...
WEST: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged above to well
above normal yesterday.
EAST: Dry or with only a few very light showers through eastern areas during
the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged near to above normal through western
areas, near to below normal east.
Forecast....
WEST: Scattered showers and thundershowers, 0.10-0.75 inch and locally heavier,
through western and central areas later today or during tonight. A few light
showers through eastern areas during Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures
average above to well above normal during this period.
Mostly dry Saturday. Dry or with only a few showers or thundershowers in
northern areas Sunday. Scattered to widely scattered showers and thundershowers
are possible during Monday. Temperatures average above normal during this
period.
EAST: Dry today. Dry or with only a few light showers through western areas
Thursday. Dry Friday. Temperatures turn cooler today and Thursday, especially
through eastern areas. Warmer again during Friday.
Mostly dry Saturday. Dry or with only a few showers and thundershowers
developing in Wisconsin Sunday or Sunday night. Scattered showers and
thundershowers may reach western Illinois and western Wisconsin during Monday
or Monday night, continued mostly dry elsewhere in the region. Temperatures
average above to well above normal.
6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to above normal.
Rainfall near to below normal.
North Plains (Spring Wheat, Corn, Soybeans)
Summary: A few light showers west, fair central and east, during the past 24
hours. Temperatures averaged above to well above normal.
Forecast: A few light showers with locally heavier for the southeast portion of
the belt today, dry elsewhere in the region today. Mostly dry tomorrow and
Friday. Temperatures average well above normal during this period.
Mostly dry Saturday. Dry or with only a few light to locally moderate
showers, favoring the east and southeast areas, during Sunday or Monday.
Temperatures average above to near normal during this period.
6-10 Day Outlook...Temperatures are expected to average above to near normal.
Rainfall near to below normal.
Central/Southern Plains (Winter Wheat, Corn, Soybean, Sorghum)
Summary: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged above
normal.
Forecast: A few light to locally moderate showers may occur today or tonight,
favoring central and northern areas. Drier during Thursday. Dry Friday.
Temperatures average well above normal.
Mostly dry Saturday and Sunday. Dry or with only a few light showers
developing Monday or Monday night. Temperatures average well above normal
during this period.
6-10 Day Outlook...Temperatures are expected to average above to near normal.
Rainfall near to below normal.
Mato Grosso/Goias, Brazil (Soybeans)
Summary: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged above to
well above normal through north and east areas, cooler southwest. Highs
yesterday averaged 95-100F (35-38C) through Mato Grosso, 93-104F (34-40C)
through Goias and 85-90F (30-32C) through Mato Grosso Do Sul.
Forecast: Mostly dry today and Thursday. Chance for a few showers and
thundershowers developing Friday or Friday night, favoring western areas.
Temperatures average near to above normal today, above normal tomorrow and
Friday.
A few showers and thundershowers during Saturday. Scattered showers and
thundershowers north, drier south, during Sunday. Dry Monday. Temperatures near
to above normal.
6-10 Day Outlook...Temperatures are expected to average near to above normal
during the period Monday through next Friday. Rainfall is expected to average
near normal during this time.
Joel Burgio
