Early Ag Weather Watch - Feb 24

EARLY LOOK WEATHER REPORT

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...89 AT DRYDEN TX

LOW  SUN...8 BELOW ZERO AT FERGUS FALLS MN AND FOSSTON MN

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 06:00 PM CT...DAYTONA BEACH FL 0.98 INCH

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

The US and European models are in fair to good agreement during the next 5

days, fair agreement during days 6-10. I am using a compromise between the

models as it concerns the 6-10 day period. The main problem area during the

6-10 day period is in how much trough moves across the southern plains and

lower Miss river valley and how fast this trough may move. The US model is

somewhat deeper and slower moving with this trough and therefore has more

precipitation associated with it. In either case the short range maps feature

extreme cold and only light or locally moderate precipitation chances. Also in

either case there is some chance for precipitation and less cold for the

southeast plains, the lower Miss and the Ohio river valleys during the 6-10 day

period. In the case of the US model this chance may also include the southwest

plains region as well. The high latitude blocking ridge was shown over Alaska

last evening. The long range maps, days 8-10, show this ridge west of Alaska.

The strong jet stream dips fairly far to the south early in the ten day period.

Later in the period the jet stream is somewhat split with one branch moving

west to east over the northern US and a second jet stream moving across the

southern plains and the Delta before merging with the northern branch over the

northeast US region.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

SOUTH AMERICA: The upper level ridge is over east-central Brazil and in the

Atlantic today. Troughs are west of central Chile and over southeast Argentina.

The forecast shows the ridge remaining mostly in place through the middle of

this week. The Chile trough and the Argentina trough gradually merge over

southern Brazil later in the week. This causes an eastward shift to the ridge

center this weekend and early next week. This may allow some shower activity to

reach into the drought areas of Minas Gerais but this is somewhat uncertain.

ARGENTINA: A drying trend is expected during this week. This will favor

developing crops, after recent heavy rains. Cool weather early this week gives

way to warmer weather late in the week.

BRAZIL SOYBEANS/CORN: Heavy thunderstorms during the weekend for portions of

Mato Grosso and Parana likely means local flooding and delays to field work.

This may include harvest delays for soybeans and first crop corn and delays to

planting of second crop corn. Soil moisture for filling crops is adequate to

surplus at this time.

BRAZIL COFFEE, CITRUS, SUGARCANE AREAS: The drought pattern is expected to

continue for Minas Gerais crop areas for much of this week. There appears to be

at least some chance for increasing shower activity during the weekend and

early next week. If verified this would help ease stress to crops but there is

some uncertainty in this outlook. There appears to be a somewhat better chance

for needed rains to occur in Sao Paulo crop areas next weekend and early next

week.

CENTRAL/SOUTH PLAINS: A return to colder weather is expected in the north and

east U.S. during this week. This appears to be mostly outside of the plains

wheat belt but it will bear watching.

MIDWEST: Extreme cold returns to the region, departures from normal at least 15

to 25 degrees below normal...possibly colder. Soft Red Winter wheat is somewhat

at risk since the recent warm spell has melted protective snow cover. Extreme

cold will again dramatically increase the usage of Natural Gas for heating. No

major transportation delays due to weather during the next 5 days.

SOUTH AFRICA: Scattered weekend showers will help to maintain favorable

conditions for filling maize and sugarcane crops in the region.

CHINA: Moderate to locally heavy snow and rain has occurred through central and

southern winter wheat areas of eastern China and through most winter rapeseed

areas during February. This will help to replenish soil moisture and it will

favor crops when they break dormancy in the spring. Snow to the north was not

as heavy but still fairly significant for this time of the year. Snow and ice

and to a lesser extent rain will have delayed transportation somewhat. The

weather pattern currently favors additional chances for snow or rain through

the Yangtze river valley and the southern part of the North China Plain.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES/FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

WEST: Mostly dry during the weekend period. Temperatures averaged near to below

normal Saturday, below to well below normal Sunday.

EAST: Scattered light precipitation, mostly 0.25 inch or less, occurred from

parts of central Illinois eastward during the weekend period. Little elsewhere

in the region during the weekend. Temperatures averaged above to well above

normal south and near to below normal north Saturday, below normal Sunday.

Forecast....

WEST: Chance for snow or snow squalls through northwest and central areas

during today or during tonight. Mostly dry tomorrow and Wednesday. Temperatures

average below or much below normal today, much below normal tomorrow and

Wednesday.

Mostly dry Thursday. Chance for snow or snow showers through western and

southern areas during Friday and Saturday. Temperatures average well below

normal during this period.

EAST: Mostly dry today. Chance for light snow or snow squalls tonight. Drier

again Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures average well below normal during this

period.

Mostly dry Thursday. Chance for light snow or snow showers during Friday and

Saturday. Temperatures average well below normal.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average below to much below

normal during this period. Precipitation should average near to above normal

through the Ohio river valley, near to below normal elsewhere in the region.

Central/Southern Plains (Winter Wheat)

Summary: Light to locally moderate precipitation, 0.10-0.35 inch, occurred in

southwest Nebraska during the weekend period. Little elsewhere in the region.

Temperatures averaged above to well above normal south and near to below normal

north Saturday, below normal north and central areas and near to above normal

south Sunday.

Forecast: Mostly dry today. Chance for showers in the southeast areas tonight

which may become somewhat heavier during Tuesday. Drier in the area again

Wednesday. Snow showers and some light snow may occurred in northwest and

west-central areas Tuesday. Dry Wednesday. Temperatures average below normal

during this period.

Dry or with only a little light precipitation, favoring northwest, central

and southeast areas, during Thursday through Saturday. Temperatures average

below normal north and near to above normal south Thursday and Friday, below

normal Saturday.

6-10 Day Outlook...Temperatures are expected to average below or well below

normal north, below to near normal south, during this period. Precipitation

averages near to above normal through southeast locations, near to below normal

through north and southwest areas.

Brazil (Corn, Soybeans, Citrus, Coffee, Sugarcane)

Summary...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, 0.30-1.50

inches (8-38 mm) and locally heavier, occurred through Parana, Santa Catarina

and southeast areas of RGDS during the weekend period. Dry or with only a few

light showers elsewhere in RGDS during the weekend. Temperatures averaged near

to below normal Saturday, below normal Sunday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and Goias: Heavy thunderstorms, 1.00-2.50 inches (25-65 mm)

and locally heavier, occurred in Mato Grosso, western Goias and southern MGDS

during the weekend period. Little elsewhere in MGDS or in eastern Goias during

this time. Temperatures averaged below normal, except it was warmer in eastern

Goias.

Sao Paulo/Minas Gerais: Scattered to widely scattered showers, 0.12-0.60 inch

(3-15 mm), were reported in eastern Sao Paulo and in Minas Gerais during the

weekend period. A few heavier thundershowers occurred in western Sao Paulo

during the weekend. Temperatures averaged near to below normal west, above

normal east.

Forecast...

Rio Grande do Sul, Parana, MGDS: Dry or with only a few light showers in the

northern areas today. Scattered showers and thundershowers redevelop in RGDS

and southern Parana during Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures average below

normal today, near to below normal Tuesday and Wednesday.

Scattered moderate to locally heavy showers and thunderstorms from northwest

RGDS to Parana during Thursday. Showers and thundershowers from Parana to MGDS

during Friday. Drier Saturday. Temperatures average near to below normal

Thursday, below normal Friday and Saturday.

Sao Paulo/Minas Gerais: Scattered light to locally moderate showers and

thundershowers will tend to favor Sao Paulo during today and tonight. Mostly

dry or with only a few isolated light showers during Tuesday. Dry Wednesday.

Temperatures average near to below normal west and above normal east today,

near to above normal Tuesday, above normal Wednesday.

Mostly dry or with only a few light showers during Thursday. Scattered

showers and thundershowers may occur through western and southern Sao Paulo

during Friday, continued dry or with only a few light showers elsewhere in the

region Friday. Chance for scattered to widely scattered light and locally

moderate showers during the weekend. Temperatures average above normal Thursday

and Friday, near to below normal west and above normal east during the weekend.

Argentina (Corn, Soybean, Wheat)

Summary...Cordoba, Sante Fe, Buenos Aires, La Pampa.

Scattered showers and thundershowers, 0.25-1.00 inch (6-25 mm) and locally

heavier, occurred in Cordoba during the weekend period. A few light showers

with locally heavier in Sante Fe. Drier elsewhere in the region during the

weekend. Satellite pictures show showers and thundershowers over northern La

Pampa and southwest Buenos Aires at this hour. Temperatures averaged near

normal southwest, below normal elsewhere in the region.

Forecast...

Isolated to widely scattered thundershowers are possible in the region

today. Mostly dry during Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures average near to

below normal during this period.

Mostly dry Thursday. Dry or with only a few light showers in southern areas

during Friday and Saturday. Temperatures trend warmer during this period.

Joel Burgio

CHUVAS ATÉ FIM DO VERÃO NÃO VÃO ELEVAR UMIDADE A NIVEIS CONFORTÁVEIS

O verão termina no Brasil na segunda metade de março e vai chegar ao final com

chuvas abaixo da média e temperaturas acima do normal nas regiões produtoras

de café. Embora a previsão até o fim de fevereiro e em todo o mês de março

seja de normalização nas chuvas, elas não vão ser suficientes para repor

reservatórios e muito menos para elevar os níveis da umidade do solo acima de

80%, o que seria o nível confortável para a cafeicultura. Ou seja, a falta de

chuvas de janeiro e fevereiro trouxe perdas irreparáveis para a cafeicultura

que a normalização das precipitações de agora até o final de março não

será capaz de recuperar. A avaliação é do agrometeorologista da Somar

Meteorologia, Marco Antônio dos Santos.

    Assim como no final de semana passado, este final de semana agora será de

chuvas no cinturão cafeeiro, entre 20 e 50 milímetros, incluindo São Paulo,

Minas Gerais e Espírito Santo (a Bahia já vem tendo mais chuvas). Daqui até o

fim de março teremos uma frente fria entrando por semana, comenta Marco

Antônio.

    "Não teremos mais a ausência de chuvas como em janeiro e até há pouco

tempo em fevereiro, mas também não teremos longos períodos de chuvas. Será

uma pancada de chuvas a cada sete dias, entre 20 a 50 milímetros de cada vez em

média", diz.

    É uma volta à normalidade para o período, o problema é que não serão,

portanto, prolongados períodos de chuvas abrangentes e constantes, que

poderiam repor reservatórios e recuperar de vez a umidade do solo. Isso não

vai acontecer, ressalta o agrometeorologista.

Coffee shortage may arise due to drought, climate change, rising demand, analysts say

Washington Post  -  Jia Lynn Yang  -  February 21

Don’t panic. But there could be a global coffee shortage.

Usually, during this time of year, the delicate Arabica coffee plants in the mountains of Brazil, where most of the world’s coffee comes from, are maturing. White, fragrant flowers have appeared, followed by cherrylike fruit, each containing two seeds: Arabica coffee beans, the most popular in the world.

But last month, the worst drought in decades hit Brazil’s coffee belt region, destroying crop yields and causing the price of coffee to shoot up by more than 50 percent so far this year. The drought is historic, with more than 140 cities in Brazil forced to ration water. The country’s leading newspapers reported that some neighborhoods are receiving water only every three days.

For now, retail prices for coffee are stable. Roasters typically have enough supplies to cover themselves for a few months. But if the price of the Arabica beans continues to rise, consumers could start seeing the cost of their morning coffee creep up later this year, according to Jack Scoville, a futures market analyst specializing in grains and coffee, among other commodities.

On Wednesday, the price per pound of coffee for delivery due in March reached the highest point in about 14 months, at $1.72.

Even before the drought, though, there were concerns that there would be a global coffee deficit. At the beginning of the year, a closely watched report by a commodities trading firm noted that the global coffee market could face a shortage for the first time in three years. The report predicted that coffee supplies will be about 5 million bags lower than consumption for the 2014-15 season.

The prediction was an about-face from what experts were saying at the end of last year, when there appeared to be a coffee glut. There was so much coffee last year that Arabica coffee futures fell by nearly 25 percent.

Over the long run, though, experts say that the price of coffee will rise for one simple reason: More people in developing markets like Brazil, India and China are acquiring a taste for it.

“Regardless of what happens in Brazil now . . . we will see higher prices and more competition for higher-quality coffee,” said Kim Elena Ionescu, a coffee buyer and sustainability manager for Counter Culture, the influential North Carolina-based coffee roasting company.

Ionescu said that it used to be that the developing world made coffee and the developed world drank it. But now, countries like Brazil, which traditionally only produced coffee, are starting to consume it, too.

“More people are drinking coffee,” said Ionescu. “And more people are drinking better coffee.” She added that coffee production is hard to mechanize, and so it’s likely that demand will continue to outstrip supply.

On top of that, there are concerns that climate change could damage supplies, as well, with some pointing to Brazil’s drought as evidence of the more extreme weather becoming the norm.

“What we are really seeing as a company as we look 10, 20, 30 years down the road – if conditions continue as they are – is a potentially significant risk to our supply chain, which is the Arabica coffee bean,” said Jim Hanna, Starbucks’ head of sustainability, in an interview with the Guardian in 2011.

And for those who like sugar with their coffee, the drought in Brazil, which is also the world’s biggest producer of sugar, is disrupting plans for harvesting sugar cane. Futures prices for sugar are at nearly the highest level in two months.

Café tem dia estável na ICE, mas fecha semana com alta de 19%

Os contratos futuros de café arábica negociados na ICE Futures US tiveram uma sexta-feira de caráter consolidativo, com as fortes oscilações verificadas ao longo dos últimos pregões dando lugar para preços flutuando em intervalos mais modestos, sem o rompimento de suportes ou resistências mais significativas. Ao longo de boa parte da sessão, o maio flutuou proximamente do patamar de 170,00 centavos, que é um referencial importante. Ao se posicionar nesse nível também é possível se fazer uma leitura de que o mercado continua a se mostrar sustentado. Ao longo da semana, o contrato de maio apresentou uma alta de expressivos 19,11%. O mercado continua focado na questão climática brasileira. Os mais recentes boletins meteorológicos apontam que o final de semana continuará apresentando temperaturas muito altas no cinturão cafeeiro do Brasil e as tão esperadas chuvas ainda não virão. Elas poderão ser esparsas, mas em níveis muito fracos para reverter o déficit hídrico atual. Na esteira desse "temor climático", algumas entidades já falam claramente em quebra de safra. O Instituto de Economia Agrícola, órgão respeitado no segmento café brasileiro, avaliou que a safra do grão de São Paulo, terceiro produtor brasileiro, poderá cair até 20% na temporada 2014/2015 por conta do tempo seco e quente que atingiu o Estado desde o final de 2013. O Estado anteriormente havia previsto, em dezembro, uma colheita de 4,44 milhões de sacas, o que seria um aumento de pouco mais de 10%. No entanto, devido à irregularidade das precipitações, associada à baixa umidade relativa do ar e às elevadas temperaturas registradas, a diminuição na quantidade colhida seria da ordem de 10% a 20% nas lavouras mais antigas e de 15% a 20% naquelas de primeira safra e segunda safra. Operadores ressaltaram que começam a aparecer os primeiros números sobre prejuízos nas zonas cafeeiras do Brasil, mas a ideia mais concreta só virá quando tivermos uma normalização do clima. Para esses operadores, o certo é que o mercado está muito apreensivo, afinal, a propalada disponibilidade ampla já não é algo mais esperado. Pelo contrário, já se trabalha em déficit de produção para os arábicas e isso está se refletindo nos terminais.

No encerramento do dia em Nova Iorque, a posição maio teve alta de 5 pontos, com 169,50 centavos de dólar por libra peso, com a máxima em 174,60 centavos e a mínima de 168,30 centavos, com o julho registrando baixa de 5 pontos, com 171,35 centavos por libra, com a máxima em 176,45 centavos e a mínima em 170,30 centavos. Na Euronext/Liffe, o março teve alta de 6 dólares, com 1.981 dólares por tonelada, com o maio tendo desvalorização de 4 dólares, para o nível de 1.955 dólares por tonelada.

De acordo com analistas internacionais, o mercado continua focado na questão climática brasileira. As chuvas não caem de forma efetiva no cinturão cafeeiro do país e os prejuízos poderão ser ainda maiores que os já esperado se o quadro não apresentar uma mudança rapidamente. O analista Gil Barabach, da consultoria Safras & Mercado, indicou que as tradings internacionais falavam, há algum tempo, numa produção brasileira de 60 milhões de sacas, número que hoje já está descartado. Segundo ele, alguns levantamentos indicam quebra de 10 milhões de sacas, o que derrubaria a produção para 50 milhões, o que não geraria excedente e limitaria o saldo exportável, já que o Brasil tem um consumo interno forte. O analista questiona o que ocorreria se o Brasil nem sequer conseguisse produzir 50 milhões e ressalta que em tal cenário os estoques teriam de ser utilizados. E conclui lembrando que estoques em queda refletem nas altas das cotações.

"O mercado teve um dia consolidativo, mas com a manutenção de intervalos muito interessantes de preço. A julgar pelos boletins mais recentes das empresas de meteorologia, a tendência é que continuemos a operar focados no clima e a tendência é de que poucas chuvas deverão atingir o centro-sul brasileiro, ao menos no curto prazo. A expectativa, portanto, é de que a emoção deve continuar nos terminais", disse um trader.

A produção de café na Índia deverá ter uma queda de mais de 10%, indo para 311,5 mil toneladas, no ano safra cujo início se deu em outubro passado, indicou o Escritório de Café da Índia. De acordo com a entidade, a revisão para baixo da produção do país se deu por conta das fortes chuvas que atingiram o sul do Estado de Karnataka, maior produtor do país. Ainda de acordo com o Escritório, os preços dos grãos locais vêm apresentando alta nos mais recentes leilões realizados, por conta da valorização do café nos mercados internacionais.;

As exportações brasileiras no mês de fevereiro, até o dia 20, totalizaram 1.374.582 sacas de café, alta de 21,17% em relação às 1.134.393 sacas embarcadas no mesmo período do mês anterior, de acordo com informações do Cecafé (Conselho dos Exportadores de Café do Brasil).

Os estoques certificados de café na bolsa de Nova Iorque tiveram queda de 4.992 sacas, indo para 2.626.303 sacas.

Tecnicamente, o maio na ICE Futures US tem resistência em 174,60, 175,00, 175,50, 176,00, 176,50, 177,00, 177,50, 178,00, 178,50, 179,00, 179,50, 179,90-180,00 e 180,50 centavos de dólar, com o suporte em 168,30,168,00, 167,50, 167,00, 166,50, 166,00, 165,50, 165,00, 164,50, 164,00, 163,50, 163,00, 162,05, 162,00, 161,50, 161,00, 160,50 e 160,10-160,00 centavos.

Londres tem sessão tranquila e fecha com poucas oscilações

Os contratos futuros de café robusta negociados na Euronext/Liffe encerraram esta sexta-feira com oscilações modestas, em uma sessão tranquila e bem menos intensa que as verificadas ao longo da semana nessa casa de comercialização britânica. Ao contrário do que ocorreu na quinta-feira, a posição maio não rompeu o nível de 2.000 dólares, entretanto, conseguiu se manter dentro de um intervalo básico, acima dos 1.950 dólares. As rolagens de posições, principalmente entre março e maio, continuaram a ser ativas.

De acordo com analistas internacionais, o dia foi marcado por compras especulativas, que permitiram ao maio tocar a máxima de 1.988 dólares. Entretanto, nesse nível foram registradas ligeiras realizações e os ganhos desaceleraram. A sessão teve um volume de negócios bem menos efetivo que ao longo do decorrer da semana, se revestindo de um caráter consolidativo.

"As origens, mais uma vez, se mostraram contidas. Alguns players avaliam que elas poderão ser mais agressivas acima dos 2.000dólares, que, se puxarmos pela memória, era um referencial importante para os vendedores há alguns meses. O mercado continua a viver um clima de expectativa, já que ainda não é possível dimensionar a quebra de safra no Brasil e os efeitos que ela terá sobre a disponibilidade global do grão!, disse um trader.

O março teve uma movimentação ao longo do dia de 2,44 mil contratos, contra 9,71 mil do maio. O spread entre as posições março e maio ficou em 26 dólares.

No encerramento do dia, o março teve alta de 6 dólares, com1.981 dólares por tonelada, com o maio tendo desvalorização de 4 dólares, para o nível de 1.955 dólares por tonelada.

Vietnamese Coffee Could Benefit as Arabica Prices Leap

WSJ - Isabella Steger

  Soaring coffee prices could mean increased interest in the cheaper robusta beans, grown mainly in

Vietnam.

  Coffee prices have risen 55% this year thanks to concerns over unusually dry weather in Brazil,

the top-grower and exporter of higher quality arabica coffee beans. Arabica coffee, used by coffee

chains like Starbucks, hit a 16-month high last week.

  That has widened the spread between arabica and cheaper robusta beans, a more bitter bean used

mostly in instant coffee, to their highest level since January 2013, according to Rabobank analysts.

  "[W]ith arabica prices spiking, more robusta may be incorporated into blends, lifting the demand

outlook and supporting prices," said the bank in a note.

  But robusta prices have also rallied this year, jumping more than 20% so far in 2014 as Vietnamese

sellers have kept exports tight due to low prices.

Robusta prices gained 9% last week while arabica finished the week up over 20%.

  "There has been so much volatility [in price] between the two in the last few years with spreads

moving up and down," said Kona Haque, a London-based commodities analyst at Macquarie. "Most [coffee

roasters] must have some inbuilt flexibility to switch between the beans a little bit more."

  Tran Duc Tho, chief executive of Duc Nguyen Coffee Co. in Dak Lak province in Vietnam, said the

price of domestic coffee has risen significantly in February, encouraging local farmers to sell part

of their output, though farmers are expecting prices to go up even further.

  But robusta may not be so easy to come by for roasters, said Ms. Haque, as the "remarkable

discipline" shown by Vietnamese farmers means stocks in NYSE Liffe warehouses of robusta have been

"falling like crazy."

  Supply could also come under further pressure speculation mounts over whether the weather pattern

known as El Niño could return this year. El Niño, which is associated with unusually dry

conditions in Asia, could hit Indonesia's robusta crop, said Vanessa Tan, an analyst at Phillip

Futures in Singapore.

Cocoa prices this year are already climbing due to the possibility of El Niño.

Indonesia is the world's third-biggest producer of robusta beans.

  Not all roasters that supply coffee chains will be making the switch, however. Rachel Hamburger,

chief executive of Portofino Coffee Ltd., one of Israel's largest coffee roasters, said she doesn't

think "serious companies will switch to robusta because of the price." If arabica prices continue to

rise, she may consider switching the source of her beans from Colombia to cheaper varieties from

Honduras or Costa Rica, she added.

Commodities maintain strong gains, Coffee, Sugar outperform: Saxo Bank

LONDON - Commodities continued to show strong growth in February with Coffee and sugar outpeforming followed by precious metals. Growth dependent commodities in energy and industrial metals also showed positive returns, according to Ole S Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank.

Adverse weather conditions buoyed up energy complex while hottest January in Brazil with the least rain in 20 years led to lower of production forecasts for coffee, sugar and soybeans. Exraordinary rally in Arabica Coffee extended for the second week, Saxo Bank weekly report said.

Coffee reached a 16-month high after rallying more than 50 percent this year. The ICE exchange where Arabica coffee futures are traded responded by raising the margin on holding coffee futures by 65 percent in order to encourage speculative traders to liquidate positions or take profit. The current combination of technical and fundamental support has made it easy for speculative traders to drive the price higher but even if we should see a sizable drop in production, the market is still not tight thanks to the very good crops we have seen in recent years.

Gold and silver spent the week consolidating their recent strong gains. Momentum and technical traders have returned to the buy side and are waiting for the driver to carry the metals higher. A failure to find such a driver leaves both metals exposed to some long liquidation should the 200-day moving averages at 1,302 and 21.02 respectively give way.

WTI crude broke above 100 USD/barrel for the first time this year as it headed for a sixth weekly gain and in the process narrowed the discount to Brent crude to USD 7/barrel. Colder-than-usual US weather continues to support strong refinery production due to increased demand for heating oil and the ongoing removal of the supply glut at Cushing, Oklahoma due to improved pipeline infrastructure has given WTI and edge over Brent.