Early Ag Weather Watch - Feb 24

EARLY LOOK WEATHER REPORT

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...89 AT DRYDEN TX

LOW  SUN...8 BELOW ZERO AT FERGUS FALLS MN AND FOSSTON MN

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 06:00 PM CT...DAYTONA BEACH FL 0.98 INCH

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

The US and European models are in fair to good agreement during the next 5

days, fair agreement during days 6-10. I am using a compromise between the

models as it concerns the 6-10 day period. The main problem area during the

6-10 day period is in how much trough moves across the southern plains and

lower Miss river valley and how fast this trough may move. The US model is

somewhat deeper and slower moving with this trough and therefore has more

precipitation associated with it. In either case the short range maps feature

extreme cold and only light or locally moderate precipitation chances. Also in

either case there is some chance for precipitation and less cold for the

southeast plains, the lower Miss and the Ohio river valleys during the 6-10 day

period. In the case of the US model this chance may also include the southwest

plains region as well. The high latitude blocking ridge was shown over Alaska

last evening. The long range maps, days 8-10, show this ridge west of Alaska.

The strong jet stream dips fairly far to the south early in the ten day period.

Later in the period the jet stream is somewhat split with one branch moving

west to east over the northern US and a second jet stream moving across the

southern plains and the Delta before merging with the northern branch over the

northeast US region.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

SOUTH AMERICA: The upper level ridge is over east-central Brazil and in the

Atlantic today. Troughs are west of central Chile and over southeast Argentina.

The forecast shows the ridge remaining mostly in place through the middle of

this week. The Chile trough and the Argentina trough gradually merge over

southern Brazil later in the week. This causes an eastward shift to the ridge

center this weekend and early next week. This may allow some shower activity to

reach into the drought areas of Minas Gerais but this is somewhat uncertain.

ARGENTINA: A drying trend is expected during this week. This will favor

developing crops, after recent heavy rains. Cool weather early this week gives

way to warmer weather late in the week.

BRAZIL SOYBEANS/CORN: Heavy thunderstorms during the weekend for portions of

Mato Grosso and Parana likely means local flooding and delays to field work.

This may include harvest delays for soybeans and first crop corn and delays to

planting of second crop corn. Soil moisture for filling crops is adequate to

surplus at this time.

BRAZIL COFFEE, CITRUS, SUGARCANE AREAS: The drought pattern is expected to

continue for Minas Gerais crop areas for much of this week. There appears to be

at least some chance for increasing shower activity during the weekend and

early next week. If verified this would help ease stress to crops but there is

some uncertainty in this outlook. There appears to be a somewhat better chance

for needed rains to occur in Sao Paulo crop areas next weekend and early next

week.

CENTRAL/SOUTH PLAINS: A return to colder weather is expected in the north and

east U.S. during this week. This appears to be mostly outside of the plains

wheat belt but it will bear watching.

MIDWEST: Extreme cold returns to the region, departures from normal at least 15

to 25 degrees below normal...possibly colder. Soft Red Winter wheat is somewhat

at risk since the recent warm spell has melted protective snow cover. Extreme

cold will again dramatically increase the usage of Natural Gas for heating. No

major transportation delays due to weather during the next 5 days.

SOUTH AFRICA: Scattered weekend showers will help to maintain favorable

conditions for filling maize and sugarcane crops in the region.

CHINA: Moderate to locally heavy snow and rain has occurred through central and

southern winter wheat areas of eastern China and through most winter rapeseed

areas during February. This will help to replenish soil moisture and it will

favor crops when they break dormancy in the spring. Snow to the north was not

as heavy but still fairly significant for this time of the year. Snow and ice

and to a lesser extent rain will have delayed transportation somewhat. The

weather pattern currently favors additional chances for snow or rain through

the Yangtze river valley and the southern part of the North China Plain.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES/FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

WEST: Mostly dry during the weekend period. Temperatures averaged near to below

normal Saturday, below to well below normal Sunday.

EAST: Scattered light precipitation, mostly 0.25 inch or less, occurred from

parts of central Illinois eastward during the weekend period. Little elsewhere

in the region during the weekend. Temperatures averaged above to well above

normal south and near to below normal north Saturday, below normal Sunday.

Forecast....

WEST: Chance for snow or snow squalls through northwest and central areas

during today or during tonight. Mostly dry tomorrow and Wednesday. Temperatures

average below or much below normal today, much below normal tomorrow and

Wednesday.

Mostly dry Thursday. Chance for snow or snow showers through western and

southern areas during Friday and Saturday. Temperatures average well below

normal during this period.

EAST: Mostly dry today. Chance for light snow or snow squalls tonight. Drier

again Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures average well below normal during this

period.

Mostly dry Thursday. Chance for light snow or snow showers during Friday and

Saturday. Temperatures average well below normal.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average below to much below

normal during this period. Precipitation should average near to above normal

through the Ohio river valley, near to below normal elsewhere in the region.

Central/Southern Plains (Winter Wheat)

Summary: Light to locally moderate precipitation, 0.10-0.35 inch, occurred in

southwest Nebraska during the weekend period. Little elsewhere in the region.

Temperatures averaged above to well above normal south and near to below normal

north Saturday, below normal north and central areas and near to above normal

south Sunday.

Forecast: Mostly dry today. Chance for showers in the southeast areas tonight

which may become somewhat heavier during Tuesday. Drier in the area again

Wednesday. Snow showers and some light snow may occurred in northwest and

west-central areas Tuesday. Dry Wednesday. Temperatures average below normal

during this period.

Dry or with only a little light precipitation, favoring northwest, central

and southeast areas, during Thursday through Saturday. Temperatures average

below normal north and near to above normal south Thursday and Friday, below

normal Saturday.

6-10 Day Outlook...Temperatures are expected to average below or well below

normal north, below to near normal south, during this period. Precipitation

averages near to above normal through southeast locations, near to below normal

through north and southwest areas.

Brazil (Corn, Soybeans, Citrus, Coffee, Sugarcane)

Summary...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, 0.30-1.50

inches (8-38 mm) and locally heavier, occurred through Parana, Santa Catarina

and southeast areas of RGDS during the weekend period. Dry or with only a few

light showers elsewhere in RGDS during the weekend. Temperatures averaged near

to below normal Saturday, below normal Sunday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and Goias: Heavy thunderstorms, 1.00-2.50 inches (25-65 mm)

and locally heavier, occurred in Mato Grosso, western Goias and southern MGDS

during the weekend period. Little elsewhere in MGDS or in eastern Goias during

this time. Temperatures averaged below normal, except it was warmer in eastern

Goias.

Sao Paulo/Minas Gerais: Scattered to widely scattered showers, 0.12-0.60 inch

(3-15 mm), were reported in eastern Sao Paulo and in Minas Gerais during the

weekend period. A few heavier thundershowers occurred in western Sao Paulo

during the weekend. Temperatures averaged near to below normal west, above

normal east.

Forecast...

Rio Grande do Sul, Parana, MGDS: Dry or with only a few light showers in the

northern areas today. Scattered showers and thundershowers redevelop in RGDS

and southern Parana during Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures average below

normal today, near to below normal Tuesday and Wednesday.

Scattered moderate to locally heavy showers and thunderstorms from northwest

RGDS to Parana during Thursday. Showers and thundershowers from Parana to MGDS

during Friday. Drier Saturday. Temperatures average near to below normal

Thursday, below normal Friday and Saturday.

Sao Paulo/Minas Gerais: Scattered light to locally moderate showers and

thundershowers will tend to favor Sao Paulo during today and tonight. Mostly

dry or with only a few isolated light showers during Tuesday. Dry Wednesday.

Temperatures average near to below normal west and above normal east today,

near to above normal Tuesday, above normal Wednesday.

Mostly dry or with only a few light showers during Thursday. Scattered

showers and thundershowers may occur through western and southern Sao Paulo

during Friday, continued dry or with only a few light showers elsewhere in the

region Friday. Chance for scattered to widely scattered light and locally

moderate showers during the weekend. Temperatures average above normal Thursday

and Friday, near to below normal west and above normal east during the weekend.

Argentina (Corn, Soybean, Wheat)

Summary...Cordoba, Sante Fe, Buenos Aires, La Pampa.

Scattered showers and thundershowers, 0.25-1.00 inch (6-25 mm) and locally

heavier, occurred in Cordoba during the weekend period. A few light showers

with locally heavier in Sante Fe. Drier elsewhere in the region during the

weekend. Satellite pictures show showers and thundershowers over northern La

Pampa and southwest Buenos Aires at this hour. Temperatures averaged near

normal southwest, below normal elsewhere in the region.

Forecast...

Isolated to widely scattered thundershowers are possible in the region

today. Mostly dry during Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures average near to

below normal during this period.

Mostly dry Thursday. Dry or with only a few light showers in southern areas

during Friday and Saturday. Temperatures trend warmer during this period.

Joel Burgio