World Coffee Weather

Greater Shower Activity At End Of Month In Brazil

By Andy Karst

           Kansas City, September 19 (World Weather, Inc.) – No rain fell in Brazil coffee areas Thursday and temperatures continued warm. The pattern will prevail into the weekend with some cooling expected in the north late in the weekend and early next week. The first opportunity for “significant” rainfall will come from an increase in “scattered” showers and thunderstorms at the end of this month. It is still debatable how significant that rain becomes, but a few pockets of great enough precipitation to induce local flowering would not be out of the realm of possibilities. Some of the computer forecast model runs recently have been much more generous with rainfall in that period of time and if correct potential flowering would be more significant.  Rain was restricted again in Indonesia Thursday, but a boost in shower activity will begin this weekend with Sumatra and central Sulawesi seeing most of the increase in rain.  Other areas will continue to be disfavored for significant rainfall.     

BRAZIL

            No rain fell in Brazil coffee areas Thursday before rain light increased overnight in northern Parana.  Amounts were up to 3 millimeters at Londrina. Afternoon high temperatures were mostly in the upper 20s and lower 30s Celsius except from northern Minas Gerais into central Bahia and in a part of northern Sao Paulo where extremes reached 36. Lows this morning were mostly in the teens and lower 20s with a low of 12 in interior southeastern Bahia. 

            A few showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop in Parana and southwestern Sao Paulo today before lifting to the northeast into the remainder of Sao Paulo and far southernmost Sul de Minas Saturday into Sunday. The precipitation will greatly diminish while shifting further to the northeast Sunday into Monday. Rain totals of 1 to 8 millimeters will occur from northern Sul de Minas and Zona de Mata northward while amounts from Parana to extreme southern Sul de Minas and Rio de Janeiro ranges from 3 to 15 millimeters with a few totals of 20-25 in northern Parana and southern Sao Paulo. Most of the greatest rainfall will stay outside of key coffee areas and very little, if any, flowering will result. 

            Tuesday and Wednesday of next week will be mostly dry in coffee areas once again with a few stray showers possible. The resulting rainfall will not be more than 4 or 5 millimeters and net drying will prevail. A new weather disturbance moving northward from southern Brazil may produce some rain from Parana and southwestern Sao Paulo into southern Sul de Minas and Rio de Janeiro Thursday into October 1. The precipitation will be highly varied, but totals by the end of that period may range from 8 to 20 millimeters with a few totals of 20 to 40. Parana and southwestern Sao Paulo will be wettest. Confidence in the rain event for a week from now is low, but there should be “some increase” in precipitation during that period of time. Some of the computer weather forecast models have suggested greater rainfall, but the event is too far out to have high confidence.

            Temperatures will change little through the weekend with highs in the upper 20s and lower 30s common. A few extreme highs in the middle and upper 30s will continue from northern Minas Gerais to central Bahia. Low temperatures will rarely be cooler than 12 with many teens and a few lower 20s likely.

            Some slight cooling is expected during the late weekend and early part of next week, especially in northern parts of coffee country where highs will be in the middle 20s to lower 30s. Similar high temperatures will continue in southern coffee areas. Lowest morning temperatures will continue mostly teens and lower 20s. 

FROM BRAZIL
Rains forecast for mid-October in thirsty Brazil croplands - RTRS
18-Sep-2014 16:59
SAO PAULO, Sept 18 (Reuters) - Brazil's farm-rich center-south is expected to end the dry season and one of its worst droughts in decades in mid-October with enough rain to favor crops and the region's parched hydroelectric reservoirs, local forecaster Somar said Thursday.
With rainfall expected to be slightly above average during the normally wet spring and summer months in the southern hemisphere, Brazil's massive soybean and corn crops that farmers are starting to plant now could set new records.
The return to rains after a particularly dry winter will also help flowering and early development of the country's leading coffee and sugar cane crops that were both decimated by a severe drought in the first quarter of 2014.
Brazil is the world's largest exporter of soybeans, coffee and sugar and a major producer of other agricultural commodities.
The drought also hit the country's predominantly hydroelectric-powered electricity grid, draining the main center-south reservoirs to their lowest levels in more than a decade and driving spot electricity rates to record levels.
Click to see a graphic of spot energy prices:
"This summer we will have good periods of rain, overall nothing to brag about because they won't be enough to refill the reservoirs... but the rains will be much better than the summer of 2014," meteorologist Marco Antonio dos Santos at Somar said.
He added that the rains will help stop the reservoirs, which are often used both for generating electricity as for drinking water in major cities such as Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, from falling further.
Forecasters including Santos expect a weak El Nino that has failed to appear in recent months to eventually arrive in the coming months. The weak version of the weather phenomenon tends to produce mildly higher rainfall levels in Brazil's south.
Santos said until the second half of October rains were likely to be irregular in the regions in question and most likely concentrated in the southern grain states of Rio Grande do Sul and Parana. Those states have been quite wet in recent months compared with the farm-rich states further to the north, such as Sao Paulo, Minas Gerais and Mato Grosso.
Sao Paulo and parts of Minas Gerais have already seen some minor showers pass through in recent weeks and are expected to see at least two more cold fronts in September that could shed rain on crop land to help the development of the coffee and cane crops.
(Reporting by Roberto Samora; Writing by Reese Ewing; editing by Andrew Hay)