Nova” PIS/Cofins para café vai sobrecarregar indústria, afirma Abia
As prováveis mudanças na legislação de PIS/Cofins para o café vão aumentar a carga de impostos e desestimular a exportação de produtos com maior valor agregado. A afirmação é do presidente da Associação Brasileira das Indústrias de Alimentação (Abia), Edmundo Klotz, que projeta uma perda superior a R$ 180 milhões à indústria torrefadora caso as alterações previstas sejam aprovadas. "A proposta apenas vem onerar o elo mais eficiente da cadeia", condena.Como o Valor informou na semana passada, um acordo firmado entre representantes do Ministério da Fazenda e do segmento cafeeiro prevê a suspensão da cobrança do PIS/Cofins sobre as operações com café verde. Com a medida, o governo passaria a conceder um crédito presumido correspondente a 10% da alíquota atual - de 9,75% - para as exportações do produto cru e de 80% para as vendas do produto industrializado, tanto para o mercado doméstico quanto para o externo. Atualmente, a indústria consegue restituir todo o PIS/Cofins do café exportado.A proposta, que partiu do Conselho dos Exportadores de Café do Brasil (Cecafé) e mais tarde ganhou a adesão da Associação Brasileira da Indústria de Café (Abic) e da Associação Brasileira da Indústria de Café Solúvel (Abics), tem como objetivo declarado eliminar as distorções de mercado geradas pela legislação atual. Essas distorções teriam favorecido a rápida expansão das maiores torrefadoras do País - em especial, Sara Lee e 3Corações, respectivamente líder e vice-líder do mercado. Nos últimos anos, elas passaram a exportar café cru e a usar os créditos de PIS/Cofins decorrentes da operação para abater impostos relativos às vendas de café torrado e moído no mercado interno, o que, em tese, lhes possibilita vender mais barato do que as concorrentes que atuam apenas no fronte doméstico.Essas empresas teriam ainda uma vantagem sobre os exportadores de café cru tradicionais, que ficam com os créditos de PIS/Cofins "micados" na Receita Federal por anos. Diante da decisão da Abic de apoiar a proposta do Cecafé, Sara Lee e 3Corações deixaram a entidade e se associaram à Abia, que defende a manutenção da legislação atual. Outras três torrefadoras, insatisfeitas com a posição da Abic, estariam em processo de filiação. De acordo com a instituição, a nova PIS/Cofins, se aprovada, vai aumentar a carga tributária da indústria torrefadora em 1,11%, o que significaria um prejuízo calculado em R$ 181,8 milhões. "Este será o único efeito prático dessa mudança", alerta.Klotz reconhece que o sistema atual confere "alguma vantagem" às torrefadoras que exportam, mas argumenta que o mercado externo está aberto a todas as empresas do setor. "Jogamos com as regras do mercado, que são as mesmas para todos. Não podemos é mudá-las no meio do jogo", afirma. Em 2010, a indústria exportou cerca de US$ 1,3 bilhão em café verde, sem qualquer valor agregado, o que correspondeu a aproximadamente um quinto de toda a exportação brasileira da commodity. Os embarques de cafés industrializados, no entanto, somaram pouco mais de US$ 980 milhões.Klotz defende a participação das torrefadoras no mercado de café verde, amplamente dominado por firmas comerciais e cooperativas de produtores. "A única maneira de a indústria ganhar escala, agregar valor e se expandir globalmente é quando ela toma as rédeas da exportação. Isso fica claro quando analisamos o setor de carnes. Nossas indústrias não querem intermediárias. Elas querem estar lá fora", afirma Klotz. Para ele, a proposta de mudança na PIS/Cofins consolida um sistema "arcaico", no qual as tradings são as grandes exportadoras.Segundo o representante, a indústria ainda tem dificuldade para agregar valor no Brasil porque não pode importar café verde, o que lhe possibilitaria torrar e moer aqui variedades de outros países para a composição dos blends comercializados lá fora. "É preciso liberar o drawback para que possamos agregar mais valor às nossas exportações. Mas isso não se resolve aumentando impostos e defendendo os interesses de uma classe que nunca se interessou em agregar valor"
terça-feira, 6 de setembro de 2011
Coffee Peaking as Cargoes Carrying Brazilian Beans Surge
Bloomberg -
: Freight Markets The rally that drove arabica coffee prices up 50 percent in a year may be ending as record production in Brazil, the highest output in a decade in Central America and a rebound in Colombia’s crop boost exports. Brazil, the world’s largest grower, may produce up to 3.78 million metric tons (63 million bags) of beans next year, a jump of as much as 37 percent, London-based broker Marex Spectron Group says. Central America will reap the most since the 1999- 2000 season, the U.S. government forecasts. While that won’t be enough to boost shipping rates, it may send coffee down 13 percent to $2.50 a pound in the first quarter and $2.20 in the second, a Bloomberg survey of seven analysts and traders showed. Arabica, the most-consumed variety, more than doubled since June 2010 as rain curbed output in Colombia, the second-biggest producer, and Brazilian stockpiles fell to their third-smallest in a half-century, USDA data show. ABN Amro Bank NV and VM Group forecast a surplus for the season that begins Oct. 1. Futures are 8.8 percent below the 14-year high reached in May, and Kraft Foods Inc. and J.M. Smucker Co. have cut prices. “I’m saying to the producers that now is the moment to sell,” said Ricardo Villanueva, the president of Guatemala’s National Coffee Association, known as Anacafe. “We could have these prices until March or April, but no more than that.” Arabica prices rose 20 percent last month on the ICE Futures U.S. exchange, the most since June 2010, on speculation that frost in Brazil will limit next year’s crop. Coffee was the biggest gainer in the Standard & Poor’s GSCI Index of 24 commodities, which declined 1.7 percent. Instant Coffee Global production of arabica beans will outpace demand by 690,000 60-kilogram (132-pound) bags in the next season, ABN Amro and VM Group predict. The surplus in robusta, the second most-consumed variety, will be 3.87 million bags, they estimate. Smucker, which owns the Folgers brand, reduced prices for the majority of its coffee products sold in U.S. by an average 6 percent on Aug. 16. The Orrville, Ohio-based company raised charges 10 percent in February, said Vincent Byrd, the director and president of U.S. retail coffee. Kraft cut prices on some products 6 percent, Bridget MacConnell, a spokeswoman for the Northfield, Illinois-based company, said Aug. 23. It increased Maxwell House and Yuban ground coffees by about 22 percent in March, she said. Starbucks Hedges Starbucks Corp. (SBUX), the world’s largest coffee-shop operator, said July 28 that higher bean costs would trim earnings per share by 21 cents in its fiscal year ending in September 2012, from a year earlier. The Seattle-based company will report a 20 percent gain in per-share profits to $1.82 in the period, the mean of 11 analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg show. Starbucks bought most of the coffee it needs for fiscal 2012 as prices retreated from a 14-year high, Troy Alstead, chief financial officer, said in a conference call on July 28. Coffee is usually shipped to international markets in burlap bags loaded into steel boxes, each capable of carrying more than 19 metric tons. Global exports reached about 93.4 million bags in the 2009-2010 season, according to the London- based International Coffee Organization. That amount would fill about 290,000 containers, data compiled by Bloomberg show, or about 0.05 percent of the 546 million containers that Clarkson Plc, the world’s largest shipbroker, estimates will move from ports this year. The broker’s projected 8.5 percent expansion in the global container trade in 2011 hasn’t been enough to bolster rates that dropped to zero on some routes because of a glut of ships. Container Vessels The global fleet of container vessels expanded 17 percent to 4,768 since the end of 2007 and orders at shipyards are equal to 27 percent of existing capacity, data from Redhill, England- based IHS Fairplay show. Rates excluding fuel surcharges on shipping lanes from Asia to Europe, the second-busiest after trade from Asia to the U.S. West Coast, were zero in July and little changed in August, the longest stretch in the industry’s half-century history, according to Morgan Stanley. The cost including surcharges for moving a box from China to Europe fell to $833 from $1,903 in July last year, according to data from London-based Clarkson. About 90 percent of world trade is transported by sea, the Round Table of Shipping Associations estimates. Containers are also used to carry everything from televisions to washing machines to meat. Shipping Glut Other types of shipping are also suffering from a glut. Supertankers hauling oil from Saudi Arabia to Japan, the benchmark route, were last at minus $1,789 a day, data from the London-based Baltic Exchange show. Owners are effectively paying clients to hire ships because it covers some of their fuel costs as they move carriers to more profitable regions. Returns reached $177,000 in July 2008. Rates for capesizes, mostly carrying coal and iron ore, were last at $24,199 a day, compared with $234,000 in 2008, according to the Baltic Exchange, which publishes daily rates for more than 50 maritime routes. While shipping lines are contending with a glut, the coffee industry is struggling to meet demand. Even at the $2.20 a pound anticipated in the Bloomberg survey, arabica would still be almost twice as costly as the 10-year average of $1.15. Speculators are getting more bullish, increasing their net- long positions, or bets on higher prices, for a third week to 19,651 futures and options by Aug. 30, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. That’s 47 percent below the peak reached at the end of April, before reaching the 14-year high of $3.089 a pound. First Quarter “There have been a lot of investors moving into the coffee market over the past year and there is little chance of a move toward $2 to $2.30 until the end of the first quarter,” said Bryan Stockley, the managing director of Coburg Coffee Co., a London-based roaster. “The performance of the price in the first quarter next year should be more fundamentally based.” Options traders are split on the direction of prices. The most widely held option gives holders the right to buy arabica at $3 by November, while the second-biggest contract is for $2.50 by the same date, ICE Futures U.S. data show. Arabica for December delivery dropped 2.2 percent to $2.818 a pound at 8:36 a.m. London time on ICE. The divergence is being caused in part by two months of drier-than-average weather in Brazil, ahead of the flowering phase for the next crop. Too little rain may cause blossoms to fall before the buds have formed, while some rain followed by another drought would increase that risk, Commerzbank AG said in a report Sept. 1. Bags of Arabica Marex expects Brazil to reap 60 million to 63 million bags of coffee production next year, the high-yielding half of its two-year cycle, from 46 million to 48 million bags this year. The first beans will be picked at the end of May, with the harvest officially starting in July. The country’s arabica exports will probably increase by about 2 million bags to 29 million bags in the 2012 calendar year, according to Guilherme Braga, the head of CeCafe, the Brazilian exporters’ council. Shipments from Colombia, the second-biggest, may rise to 8.5 million bags from 7.8 million, according to Luis Rangel, a vice president at ICAP Futures LLC in Jersey City, New Jersey. The nation will produce 10.5 million bags, from an almost four- decade low of 8.1 million bags in 2009-10, USDA forecasts show. Honduras, which the USDA estimates overtook Guatemala as Central America’s largest grower this season, will probably expand output 2.5 percent to 4.1 million bags in the next season, for a third consecutive gain, USDA data show. Output in Guatemala will probably rise 3 percent to 4 percent to 3.6 million bags, said Villanueva of Anacafe. Regional Exports Combined Central American production will increase more than 1 percent to 13.4 million bags, the most since the 1999- 2000 season, the USDA estimates. The region usually exports more than 90 percent of its beans, USDA data show. “I see prices staying historically high into the first quarter,” said Kona Haque, a commodities analyst at Macquarie Group Ltd. in London. “From the second quarter on, prices should start coming down as Brazil awaits a bumper harvest and supplies improve in Colombia and Central America.”
: Freight Markets The rally that drove arabica coffee prices up 50 percent in a year may be ending as record production in Brazil, the highest output in a decade in Central America and a rebound in Colombia’s crop boost exports. Brazil, the world’s largest grower, may produce up to 3.78 million metric tons (63 million bags) of beans next year, a jump of as much as 37 percent, London-based broker Marex Spectron Group says. Central America will reap the most since the 1999- 2000 season, the U.S. government forecasts. While that won’t be enough to boost shipping rates, it may send coffee down 13 percent to $2.50 a pound in the first quarter and $2.20 in the second, a Bloomberg survey of seven analysts and traders showed. Arabica, the most-consumed variety, more than doubled since June 2010 as rain curbed output in Colombia, the second-biggest producer, and Brazilian stockpiles fell to their third-smallest in a half-century, USDA data show. ABN Amro Bank NV and VM Group forecast a surplus for the season that begins Oct. 1. Futures are 8.8 percent below the 14-year high reached in May, and Kraft Foods Inc. and J.M. Smucker Co. have cut prices. “I’m saying to the producers that now is the moment to sell,” said Ricardo Villanueva, the president of Guatemala’s National Coffee Association, known as Anacafe. “We could have these prices until March or April, but no more than that.” Arabica prices rose 20 percent last month on the ICE Futures U.S. exchange, the most since June 2010, on speculation that frost in Brazil will limit next year’s crop. Coffee was the biggest gainer in the Standard & Poor’s GSCI Index of 24 commodities, which declined 1.7 percent. Instant Coffee Global production of arabica beans will outpace demand by 690,000 60-kilogram (132-pound) bags in the next season, ABN Amro and VM Group predict. The surplus in robusta, the second most-consumed variety, will be 3.87 million bags, they estimate. Smucker, which owns the Folgers brand, reduced prices for the majority of its coffee products sold in U.S. by an average 6 percent on Aug. 16. The Orrville, Ohio-based company raised charges 10 percent in February, said Vincent Byrd, the director and president of U.S. retail coffee. Kraft cut prices on some products 6 percent, Bridget MacConnell, a spokeswoman for the Northfield, Illinois-based company, said Aug. 23. It increased Maxwell House and Yuban ground coffees by about 22 percent in March, she said. Starbucks Hedges Starbucks Corp. (SBUX), the world’s largest coffee-shop operator, said July 28 that higher bean costs would trim earnings per share by 21 cents in its fiscal year ending in September 2012, from a year earlier. The Seattle-based company will report a 20 percent gain in per-share profits to $1.82 in the period, the mean of 11 analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg show. Starbucks bought most of the coffee it needs for fiscal 2012 as prices retreated from a 14-year high, Troy Alstead, chief financial officer, said in a conference call on July 28. Coffee is usually shipped to international markets in burlap bags loaded into steel boxes, each capable of carrying more than 19 metric tons. Global exports reached about 93.4 million bags in the 2009-2010 season, according to the London- based International Coffee Organization. That amount would fill about 290,000 containers, data compiled by Bloomberg show, or about 0.05 percent of the 546 million containers that Clarkson Plc, the world’s largest shipbroker, estimates will move from ports this year. The broker’s projected 8.5 percent expansion in the global container trade in 2011 hasn’t been enough to bolster rates that dropped to zero on some routes because of a glut of ships. Container Vessels The global fleet of container vessels expanded 17 percent to 4,768 since the end of 2007 and orders at shipyards are equal to 27 percent of existing capacity, data from Redhill, England- based IHS Fairplay show. Rates excluding fuel surcharges on shipping lanes from Asia to Europe, the second-busiest after trade from Asia to the U.S. West Coast, were zero in July and little changed in August, the longest stretch in the industry’s half-century history, according to Morgan Stanley. The cost including surcharges for moving a box from China to Europe fell to $833 from $1,903 in July last year, according to data from London-based Clarkson. About 90 percent of world trade is transported by sea, the Round Table of Shipping Associations estimates. Containers are also used to carry everything from televisions to washing machines to meat. Shipping Glut Other types of shipping are also suffering from a glut. Supertankers hauling oil from Saudi Arabia to Japan, the benchmark route, were last at minus $1,789 a day, data from the London-based Baltic Exchange show. Owners are effectively paying clients to hire ships because it covers some of their fuel costs as they move carriers to more profitable regions. Returns reached $177,000 in July 2008. Rates for capesizes, mostly carrying coal and iron ore, were last at $24,199 a day, compared with $234,000 in 2008, according to the Baltic Exchange, which publishes daily rates for more than 50 maritime routes. While shipping lines are contending with a glut, the coffee industry is struggling to meet demand. Even at the $2.20 a pound anticipated in the Bloomberg survey, arabica would still be almost twice as costly as the 10-year average of $1.15. Speculators are getting more bullish, increasing their net- long positions, or bets on higher prices, for a third week to 19,651 futures and options by Aug. 30, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. That’s 47 percent below the peak reached at the end of April, before reaching the 14-year high of $3.089 a pound. First Quarter “There have been a lot of investors moving into the coffee market over the past year and there is little chance of a move toward $2 to $2.30 until the end of the first quarter,” said Bryan Stockley, the managing director of Coburg Coffee Co., a London-based roaster. “The performance of the price in the first quarter next year should be more fundamentally based.” Options traders are split on the direction of prices. The most widely held option gives holders the right to buy arabica at $3 by November, while the second-biggest contract is for $2.50 by the same date, ICE Futures U.S. data show. Arabica for December delivery dropped 2.2 percent to $2.818 a pound at 8:36 a.m. London time on ICE. The divergence is being caused in part by two months of drier-than-average weather in Brazil, ahead of the flowering phase for the next crop. Too little rain may cause blossoms to fall before the buds have formed, while some rain followed by another drought would increase that risk, Commerzbank AG said in a report Sept. 1. Bags of Arabica Marex expects Brazil to reap 60 million to 63 million bags of coffee production next year, the high-yielding half of its two-year cycle, from 46 million to 48 million bags this year. The first beans will be picked at the end of May, with the harvest officially starting in July. The country’s arabica exports will probably increase by about 2 million bags to 29 million bags in the 2012 calendar year, according to Guilherme Braga, the head of CeCafe, the Brazilian exporters’ council. Shipments from Colombia, the second-biggest, may rise to 8.5 million bags from 7.8 million, according to Luis Rangel, a vice president at ICAP Futures LLC in Jersey City, New Jersey. The nation will produce 10.5 million bags, from an almost four- decade low of 8.1 million bags in 2009-10, USDA forecasts show. Honduras, which the USDA estimates overtook Guatemala as Central America’s largest grower this season, will probably expand output 2.5 percent to 4.1 million bags in the next season, for a third consecutive gain, USDA data show. Output in Guatemala will probably rise 3 percent to 4 percent to 3.6 million bags, said Villanueva of Anacafe. Regional Exports Combined Central American production will increase more than 1 percent to 13.4 million bags, the most since the 1999- 2000 season, the USDA estimates. The region usually exports more than 90 percent of its beans, USDA data show. “I see prices staying historically high into the first quarter,” said Kona Haque, a commodities analyst at Macquarie Group Ltd. in London. “From the second quarter on, prices should start coming down as Brazil awaits a bumper harvest and supplies improve in Colombia and Central America.”
Clube dos endinheirados
Portfólio é exclusivo para quem tem mais de R$ 50 milhões em conta No mundo fechado dos endinheirados, existem os mais milionários que os outros. São os chamados ultra high net worth individuals, clientes com de mais de R$ 50 milhões para investir. Para essa faixa, os bancos reservam produtos especiais, normalmente de menor liquidez e com prazos mais longos. Entre os mais procurados estão os fundos de private equity - que compram participações em empresas ainda não listadas na Bolsa. Trata-se de uma opção para quem não tem pressa, mas com boas perspectivas de retorno. O prazo de maturação gira entre quatro e oito anos e o retorno previsto é algo em torno de 150% dos Certificados de Depósito Bancário (CDI).Para João Albino Winkelmann, diretor de private banking do Bradesco, o Brasil está em um bom momento para private equity. Ele aponta o radar para empresas envolvidas em obras de pequenas centrais elétricas, rodovias, usinas, reforma de estádios e aeroportos.No início do ano, o BTG Pactual lançou um fundo de private equity que captou US$ 1,6 bilhão, dos quais R$ 400 milhões vieram de clientes da própria instituição. O tíquete foi de R$ 15 milhões. Caberá ao gestor procurar as ofertas de compra de empresas. "Há oportunidades em vários setores como consumo, farmácia e investimentos para atender as necessidades as classes C e D", afirma Renato Cohn, head do BTG Pactual.Nem todas as instituições de private trabalham com produtos específicos. O Itaú-Unibanco atua em private equity e fundos imobiliários com a gestora Kinea, mas indica fundos de terceiros caso o cliente peça algo mais especializado. "A área de fundos de private é totalmente diferente do varejo, no qual muitas vezes o que muda é a taxa de administração entre um banco e outro. Temos uma ampla prateleira, mas às vezes o cliente está interessado em outro tipo de investimento e aí indicamos um gestor especializado", diz Charles Ferraz, responsável de global wealth solutions do Itaú Private Bank. Ferraz recomenda que produtos com essa configuração respondam por até 5% da carteira. "Não se deve concentrar e sim diversificar."Para o perfil ultra high, o HSBC desenvolve operações estruturadas e fundos de fundos (espécie de multimercado com ativos de diferentes gestores), que rendeu 115% do CDI entre 2008 e 2009, diz Marcelo Muradian, diretor de investimentos do HSBC Private. Recentemente, o banco criou três fundos próprios de capital protegido. O de moedas captou R$ 50 milhões e foi montado com a coroa norueguesa, dólar australiano e dólar neozeolandês, que estavam com performance acima da moeda americana. "Rendeu 120% do CDI", diz Muradian. As demais operações foram uma cesta de 20 commodities, para a qual foram captados R$ 65 milhões, e um fundo de ouro, que deu 1,5% de retorno sobre o produto vendido em Londres.O Banco do Brasil desenvolve fundos exclusivos, produtos customizados, para os quais não tem valor mínimo para a aplicação. "Vai mais de um diagnóstico da situação financeira do cliente e de suas necessidades do que de um valor para aplicação", diz Carlos Takahashi, presidente da BB DTVM."Em fundos exclusivos, temos mandato desde 105% do CDI até clientes que fazem fundos de fundos para bater o Ibovespa", afirma Christiano Ehlers, superintendente do private do Santander.Há ainda a recomendação dos especialistas para a compra de títulos de renda fixa de longo prazo, como os Certificados de Recebíveis Imobiliários (CRIs), emitidos por uma companhia securitizadora com lastro em um empreendimento imobiliário. A vantagem para as pessoas físicas: são isentos de tributação. A aplicação mínima é de R$ 300 mil. Outro título privado de renda fixa recomendado na área de private para o público de faixa mais alta são as Letras de Crédito do Agronegócio (LCAs), isentas de Imposto de Renda. A LCA está lastreada em dívidas agrícolas e permite ganhos expressivos, mas são caras. O investimento mínimo é de R$ 500 mil.
China sai vencedora, mas futuro é incerto
China sai vencedora, mas futuro é incerto
11/9/2001 O DIA QUE MARCOU UMA DÉCADA
Em dez anos, país triplicou peso no PIB global, sugando a dívida emitida pelos EUA para financiar duas guerras Coesão, desigualdade e resistência de vizinhos são obstáculos à força do país, que tem 9,3% da economia mundial Entre 2001 e este ano, enquanto os EUA travavam a "guerra ao terror", a China passou de sexta a segunda maior economia do mundo. Seu peso na produção global quase triplicou, de 3,7% para 9,3%; o dos EUA caiu de 31% para 23%. Enquanto os americanos ocupavam Iraque e Afeganistão, a China sugava a dívida emitida por Washington. Produtos chineses ajudaram a manter baixa a inflação nos EUA, que cresciam até 2008 sustentados em uma bolha de crédito.Depois que a China entrou na Organização Mundial do Comércio, em 2001, seu superavit comercial com os EUA aumentou 230%, embora parte dele deva-se a vendas de empresas americanas em território chinês.Salvo uma catástrofe, em algum momento até 2030 o PIB da China ultrapassará o dos EUA, mas sua renda per capita ainda equivalerá a um quarto da americana.Os dados acima reforçam a conclusão de que a China emergiu como vencedora da década pós-11 de Setembro. Ao mesmo tempo, embasam prognósticos divergentes sobre o significado disso no resto deste século."O abraço econômico de EUA e China impede medidas radicais. A China se beneficiou da ordem criada pelos ocidentais e preza o status quo. Em curto e médio prazo, não tentará derrubar o sistema", diz Oliver Stuenkel, professor da FGV-SP. Nas projeções de longo prazo, a maioria dos analistas é mais cautelosa do que Arvind Subramanian, do Instituto Peterson de Economia Internacional: na "Foreign Affairs", previu que em duas décadas o mundo não será multipolar, mas "quase unipolar, dominado pela China".Na mesma revista, o sinólogo Andrew Nathan (Universidade Columbia), lista obstáculos à ascensão chinesa. A potência asiática devota "enormes recursos" a evitar a independência de Taiwan e a manter a coesão interna, incluindo nas províncias de Xinjiang e do Tibete, que formam quase metade do território e são habitadas por minorias étnico-religiosas. No entorno, estão países instáveis como Mianmar e Coreia do Norte. Outros -Índia, Japão, Vietnã- são beneficiados pelo crescimento econômico chinês mas não estão dispostos a conceder a Pequim a primazia militar ou política regional. "A China enfrenta obstáculos que os EUA nunca enfrentaram na própria região", afirma Stuenkel. MILITARESA China vem aumentando os gastos militares, mas eles são ainda 7,3% de um total mundial em que os EUA entram com 43%. Ficou mais dura sobre as disputas marítimas e acaba de lançar seu primeiro porta-aviões.Os EUA, porém, têm 11 navios do tipo e constroem dois. Mantêm o domínio militar na Ásia, com 100 mil soldados só no Japão e Coreia do Sul."Quanto mais a China ascender, mais seus vizinhos tenderão a contrabalançar aproximando-se dos EUA", escreve Nathan. A prudência dá o tom de um relatório recente do Banco de Desenvolvimento Asiático sobre a possibilidade de que a região represente, em 2050, mais da metade da economia mundial.Nos "múltiplos riscos" a serem gerenciados por China e outros emergentes asiáticos, o banco inclui as crescentes desigualdades internas e a transição de um modelo de crescimento movido a capital e mão de obra abundantes para outro baseado no aumento da produtividade, via avanços tecnológicos.Para a corrente majoritária nos EUA, o país deterá o avanço chinês se impedir o próprio declínio.
11/9/2001 O DIA QUE MARCOU UMA DÉCADA
Em dez anos, país triplicou peso no PIB global, sugando a dívida emitida pelos EUA para financiar duas guerras Coesão, desigualdade e resistência de vizinhos são obstáculos à força do país, que tem 9,3% da economia mundial Entre 2001 e este ano, enquanto os EUA travavam a "guerra ao terror", a China passou de sexta a segunda maior economia do mundo. Seu peso na produção global quase triplicou, de 3,7% para 9,3%; o dos EUA caiu de 31% para 23%. Enquanto os americanos ocupavam Iraque e Afeganistão, a China sugava a dívida emitida por Washington. Produtos chineses ajudaram a manter baixa a inflação nos EUA, que cresciam até 2008 sustentados em uma bolha de crédito.Depois que a China entrou na Organização Mundial do Comércio, em 2001, seu superavit comercial com os EUA aumentou 230%, embora parte dele deva-se a vendas de empresas americanas em território chinês.Salvo uma catástrofe, em algum momento até 2030 o PIB da China ultrapassará o dos EUA, mas sua renda per capita ainda equivalerá a um quarto da americana.Os dados acima reforçam a conclusão de que a China emergiu como vencedora da década pós-11 de Setembro. Ao mesmo tempo, embasam prognósticos divergentes sobre o significado disso no resto deste século."O abraço econômico de EUA e China impede medidas radicais. A China se beneficiou da ordem criada pelos ocidentais e preza o status quo. Em curto e médio prazo, não tentará derrubar o sistema", diz Oliver Stuenkel, professor da FGV-SP. Nas projeções de longo prazo, a maioria dos analistas é mais cautelosa do que Arvind Subramanian, do Instituto Peterson de Economia Internacional: na "Foreign Affairs", previu que em duas décadas o mundo não será multipolar, mas "quase unipolar, dominado pela China".Na mesma revista, o sinólogo Andrew Nathan (Universidade Columbia), lista obstáculos à ascensão chinesa. A potência asiática devota "enormes recursos" a evitar a independência de Taiwan e a manter a coesão interna, incluindo nas províncias de Xinjiang e do Tibete, que formam quase metade do território e são habitadas por minorias étnico-religiosas. No entorno, estão países instáveis como Mianmar e Coreia do Norte. Outros -Índia, Japão, Vietnã- são beneficiados pelo crescimento econômico chinês mas não estão dispostos a conceder a Pequim a primazia militar ou política regional. "A China enfrenta obstáculos que os EUA nunca enfrentaram na própria região", afirma Stuenkel. MILITARESA China vem aumentando os gastos militares, mas eles são ainda 7,3% de um total mundial em que os EUA entram com 43%. Ficou mais dura sobre as disputas marítimas e acaba de lançar seu primeiro porta-aviões.Os EUA, porém, têm 11 navios do tipo e constroem dois. Mantêm o domínio militar na Ásia, com 100 mil soldados só no Japão e Coreia do Sul."Quanto mais a China ascender, mais seus vizinhos tenderão a contrabalançar aproximando-se dos EUA", escreve Nathan. A prudência dá o tom de um relatório recente do Banco de Desenvolvimento Asiático sobre a possibilidade de que a região represente, em 2050, mais da metade da economia mundial.Nos "múltiplos riscos" a serem gerenciados por China e outros emergentes asiáticos, o banco inclui as crescentes desigualdades internas e a transição de um modelo de crescimento movido a capital e mão de obra abundantes para outro baseado no aumento da produtividade, via avanços tecnológicos.Para a corrente majoritária nos EUA, o país deterá o avanço chinês se impedir o próprio declínio.
Brazilian Exporters See Coffee Prices
Brazilian Exporters See Coffee Prices
Remaining Firm The director of Brazil's main coffee exporters'organization said Tuesday he sees low global stocks and steadily rising demandensuring high prices for arabica beans in coming years but urged local coffeegrowers to use the resulting windfall to add value to their product. "From my point of view, I think the market will tend to remain firm," saidGuilherme Braga, director of the Brazilian Green Coffee Exporters' Council, ina presentation. But that's not a reason for coffee producers to grow complacent, he said,noting that leading multinational coffee buyers are increasingly seekingcertifications to show environmental sustainability. Some, such as Nestle, aimto have 100% of their suppliers certified for sustainability as early as 2020,Braga said. "Although Brazil is currently the highest-volume exporter of sustainablecoffee...we're well below the goals that have been proposed by big importers,"Braga said. "We have to admit that this hasn't been addressed adequately in ourinternal plans. It's often presented as a somewhat absurd demand." Brazil, by far the world's top coffee producer, would also do well totransform its image as a supplier of quantity, not quality, Braga said. But theSouth American country improved more in that area and now currently exportsbetween 5 million and 5.5 million 60-kilogram (132-pound) bags a year of"added-value" coffees.
Remaining Firm The director of Brazil's main coffee exporters'organization said Tuesday he sees low global stocks and steadily rising demandensuring high prices for arabica beans in coming years but urged local coffeegrowers to use the resulting windfall to add value to their product. "From my point of view, I think the market will tend to remain firm," saidGuilherme Braga, director of the Brazilian Green Coffee Exporters' Council, ina presentation. But that's not a reason for coffee producers to grow complacent, he said,noting that leading multinational coffee buyers are increasingly seekingcertifications to show environmental sustainability. Some, such as Nestle, aimto have 100% of their suppliers certified for sustainability as early as 2020,Braga said. "Although Brazil is currently the highest-volume exporter of sustainablecoffee...we're well below the goals that have been proposed by big importers,"Braga said. "We have to admit that this hasn't been addressed adequately in ourinternal plans. It's often presented as a somewhat absurd demand." Brazil, by far the world's top coffee producer, would also do well totransform its image as a supplier of quantity, not quality, Braga said. But theSouth American country improved more in that area and now currently exportsbetween 5 million and 5.5 million 60-kilogram (132-pound) bags a year of"added-value" coffees.
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