By Andy Karst and Drew Lerner
Kansas City, October 14 (World Weather, Inc.) – No change in the hot, dry, weather outlook has occurred for Brazil through the weekend and any showers that evolve early next week will be too brief and light to allow any flowering or change in soil moisture. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will slowly develop and increase in the second half of next week and into the following weekend, but it remains unclear how significant the rain will be. Most likely it will be erratic offering greater rainfall to some areas than others.
The effects of Hurricane Gonzalo stayed mostly offshore from Puerto Rico as it moved to the northeast of the island overnight and serious damage to coffee did not appear likely.
BRAZIL
No measurable rainfall occurred in coffee areas Monday or early today. High temperatures were in the 30s Celsius across most coffee areas with a few readings in the upper 20s near the coast and in central Minas Gerais. No temperature in coffee areas was warmer than 38 and that occurred in northern and far northeastern Sao Paulo. Lows this morning were in the upper teens and lower 20s most often with a low of 26 in northern Sao Paulo and lows of 13 near northern Sul de Minas and interior southeastern Bahia. Hot temperatures will prevail over the coming week while rainfall is minimal. Daily highs will range in the 30s to near 40 degrees Celsius most often with one or two locations getting to 40 before the week is out. Most of the hottest conditions will not be in the heart of key coffee areas, but may impact portions of northern Sao Paulo and both western and northern Minas Gerais to possibly central Bahia. A few upper 20s will continue near the Atlantic Coast.
Low temperatures at night will be mostly in the teens and lower 20s, but a few readings of 11 to 12 may still occur tonight in the traditionally coolest locations.
The heat and dryness will more severely stress coffee trees already suffering from limited soil moisture. Recently flowered crops in the south will likely lose their blossoms without experiencing successful pollination and that will reduce the crop a little more.
Rainfall is possible early next week, but only as isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Daily rain totals will range from 1 to 13 millimeters Monday into Wednesday with a locally greater amount possible. The precipitation will be welcome as relief from the previous ten days to two weeks of hot, dry, conditions. However, it will not be enough to induce a general change in crop conditions.
Rain prospects will be better in the latter part of next week and into the following weekend than they will be early to mid-week next week. World Weather, Inc. anticipates very little meaningful rainfall initially and its distribution may be somewhat similar to that of two weeks ago when a few areas received significant rain while many others did not.
COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA
Rain fell throughout northern Colombia and in a large part of central Colombia Monday. Amounts varied from light to locally heavy. Isolated and light showers occurred in southern Colombia and in western Venezuela. Regular rounds of showers will occur during the next week and most areas will receive multiple rounds of rain.
PERU
Isolated and light showers brought rain to a few locations in small parts of each coffee producing region Monday. Central to southern coffee producing areas will see a continuation of isolated and light showers through the next week. A few showers will develop from time-to-time in northern coffee locations with the precipitation light most often.
PUERTO RICO/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/CUBA
Hurricane Gonzalo passed to the northeast of Puerto Rico overnight and most of the strong wind and heavy rain stayed offshore, sparing the coffee crop from serious damage. Gonzalo was moving to the north and away from the island this morning and is no longer a threat to coffee in the Greater Antilles.
Scattered showers will occur daily through the next week across the Greater Antilles and most areas will see rain on more than one occasion.
MEXICO/CENTRAL AMERICA
Scattered showers developed in Mexico Monday with light to moderate amounts occurring most often. Showers were more numerous in Central America where most areas from Nicaragua to Panama saw light to heavy rain and large parts of Guatemala and Honduras saw light to moderate rain.
Daily shower and thunderstorm activity will occur from southern Mexico through Central America through the next week to ten days as a series of slow-moving low pressure systems traverse the region. The active pattern is abnormal for this time of year and will interrupt farming operations and coffee harvesting.
VIETNAM
The Central Highlands were mostly dry again Monday with some rain reported near the coast. Most of the organized shower activity during the next week will occur near the coast while most coffee areas see an occasional round of light showers with drying occurring most often.
EAST-CENTRAL AFRICA (Ethiopia, Uganda, Kenya and Tanzania)
Scattered showers developed from southwestern Kenya into central and northern Uganda Monday with western Ethiopia also seeing scattered shower activity. Most of the resulting rain was light. Light rain also fell on a part of southern Uganda with mostly dry conditions occurring elsewhere.
Showers and thunderstorms will occur regularly from south-central Kenya northeastern Tanzania into western Ethiopia and Uganda’s crop regions through the next week to ten days. The precipitation will be light to moderate and locally heavy. The Pare region of Tanzania will see dry weather most often with some light showers occurring late this week into this weekend.
IVORY COAST/GHANA/NIGERIA/CAMEROON
Scattered showers and thunderstorms occurred across the region Monday. Amounts varied from light to locally heavy. Daily rounds of scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through the next week and most areas will receive multiple rounds of rain.
INDIA
Light rain was scattered across southern India’s coffee producing region Monday. Rain will fall regularly through the next week which will help supplement irrigation and continue favorable conditions for coffee development.
INDONESIA
Rain increased in central and western Java Monday where amounts varied from 1 to 14 millimeters. A part of central Sumatra received 10 millimeters of rain with 1 to 2 millimeters reported in a couple of northern locations.
Regular rounds of showers and thunderstorms will occur during the next week in most of Sumatra with some eastern locations on southern parts of the island seeing little significant rain. Light showers will occur regularly in parts of Java while northern areas driest. Central Sulawesi will see a few light showers occasionally with little rain expected in Timor.
