Belfast (CoffeeNetwork) Persistent dry and hot weather in key Brazilian coffee regions has resulted in a notable deterioration of trees in the first half of October, say agronomists, and all indications are that the flowerings that were seen towards the end of September have been lost. Moreover, there is no rainfall in the forecasts for this week and unusually hot temperatures are expected to continue.
Extended weather models suggest that the earliest possible opportunity for rainfall is early next week, but current expectations are that volumes will be erratic, with no widespread coverage to induce what could be called the start of the true wet season, and 2015/16 flowering.
CoffeeNetwork highlights that World Weather, Inc. projects that there will be gradually improving rainfall total from next week, in the last days of October, and that the greatest volumes may not be until early November. Rainfall totals of 8-20 mm could be seen next week, but these will not be uniform in all key growing regions. Somar also points to rains after 22 October, and its graphics suggest around 25mm in key coffee areas by the end of the month, with perhaps close to 35mm in one part of Minas Gerais.
Agronomists note that the average for October is generally taken to be 130-145mm.
On top of the lack of rainfall, as highlighted by CoffeeNetwork for the last number of weeks, is the stress placed on the coffee trees by the extraordinary temperatures. This was partly explained in the last week's Amazon Moisture Flow report by CoffeeNetwork.
It is the extent of the tree stress that will determine how flowering occurs if a true wet season begins in November. There are fears that the trees are so weakened that they may not be able to sustain blossoms, instead using the moisture to merely survive. Whether uniform November rains mean a normal flowering phase will only be evident if these occur next month.
CoffeeNetwork underlines that if November brings no significant change in weather patterns, then talk will swiftly move from a "sub-40 million bags crop" in 2015/16, to a "failed coffee crop".
Andrea Thompson
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