Commodities Market Impact Weather: Continued Drier Trend in Central U.S.

   OMAHA--Continued, mostly dry conditions in the central U.S., and scattered rainfall in central

Brazil are the primary weather items for the commodity trade's attention Monday.

FAVORABLE CENTRAL U.S. PATTERN

  The DTN ag weather forecast calls for continued mostly dry conditions in the central U.S. during

the next week to 10 days. This pattern will favor field and crop drying along with harvest progress

and winter-wheat planting in the Midwest and Delta, while maintaining favorable conditions for crop

activity in the Plains.

WEEKEND SHOWERS IN BRAZIL

  Central Brazil received some localized thundershowers during the weekend, which brought soil

moisture benefit along with some relief from recent extreme heat. This week's forecast suggests a

continued chance for showers in the region. Additional precipitation is needed for a restart to

soybean planting.

MINIMAL RAIN FOR BRAZIL COFFEE BELT

  Southeast Brazil has seen a few very light showers during the past 24 hours, which haven't been

enough to ease stress to flowering coffee trees or to recently planted new crop sugarcane. The next

chance for showers comes later this weekend or early next week. The rain amounts appear to be very

light and of little benefit. The 10-15-day time frame also points to more extensive showers, but

this is very uncertain.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS IN BLACK SEA REGION

  In the Black Sea region, light to moderate showers with locally heavier amounts developed through

southwest, central and northeast Ukraine at the end of last week. A few showers also moved into the

Black Soils region of Russia. A second area of light to moderate rain also formed in Crimea and

North Caucasus Russia Friday-Saturday. Showers maintain more favorable growing conditions for winter

grains while causing minor and local delays to the harvest of summer crops.

MIXED RAIN FOR SOUTH AFRICA

  South Africa's eastern crop areas saw moderate to heavy rains during the past few days. The rain

favors early development of the new sugarcane crop but there may be some fieldwork delays. Showers

in eastern maize areas may encourage more planting. However, western areas are still too dry for

widespread planting to begin.

SOUTH INDIA RAINFALL

  Rains from the withdrawing monsoon are noted in south India through Sri Lanka. This will favor

late-developing summer crops and early growth of winter crops in these locations.

Early Ag Weather Watch - Oct 20

EARLY LOOK WEATHER REPORT

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...97 AT HARLINGEN TX AND PALM SPRINGS CA

LOW  SUN...15 AT BODIE STATE PARK CA

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 06:00 PM CDT: CARIBOU ME 0.45 INCH

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in fair to good agreement during the outlook

period.

A short wave trough is shown moving from the Pacific Northwest across the

northern plains during the first 2 days of the outlook period. This trough then

moves through the Midwest region before lifting northward into southeast Canada

during the middle to late part of the period. Temperatures continue very warm

ahead of this trough and briefly cool to near or slightly below normal

following the trough. Rainfall associated with the passage of the trough looks

to favor the Midwest region with little expected either in the northern or the

southern plains. A fast west to east flow behind the passage of the trough

probably means the rainfall, even in the more favored Midwest region, should

not be that heavy. High latitude blocking remains weak and confined to the

Arctic circle and northern Greenland areas. The mean trough is over the eastern

Gulf of Alaska to far west Canada. The mean ridge is over the southeast and

middle Atlantic region of the U.S.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

MATO GROSSO/GOIAS, BRAZIL (SOYBEANS): Isolated weekend thundershowers provide

for some local relief to the recent extreme heat in the region but most have

missed this rain chance. The upper level ridge is still in the area which will

limit the chances for meaningful rainfall during the early and middle part of

this week. The longer range outlook suggests that the ridge may slide east and

then weaken somewhat during the coming weekend and early next week. This could

allow for a weak inflow of moisture off the Amazon and increase, somewhat, the

chance for showers.

SAO PAULO AND MINAS GERAIS BRAZIL (COFFEE, SUGARCANE): A few light or very

light showers yesterday and today are not enough to ease stress to coffee trees

that should be flowering at this time of the year or to recently planted new

crop sugarcane. The next chance for scattered showers comes later this weekend

or early next week. The early call on this rain chance is not very promising.

The extended range outlook for the end of the ten day period and for the 11 to

16 day period continue to show increasing shower activity but this is a very

long range outlook and is subject to significant day to day changes.

MIDWEST: Mostly favorable conditions for the delayed harvest of summer crops

and the planting effort for winter wheat during the next 5-7 days, at least.

DELTA: Mainly dry weather is forecast to continue for at least the next 5 to 7

days, possibly longer. This should help improve conditions for mature crops and

the harvest as well as for planting winter wheat.

NORTH PLAINS: Mostly dry weather and warm temperatures during the next 7-10

days will favor crop dry down and harvest progress.

CENTRAL/SOUTH PLAINS: Drier weather will improve field conditions for the

harvest of summer crops and the planting effort for winter wheat. Soil moisture

supplied by recent rains will favor development of earlier planted winter

wheat.

SOUTH AFRICA (MAIZE/SUGARCANE): A strong cold front and surface low moved

through at the end of last week. This lead to moderate and heavy rains through

most sugarcane areas and some moderate rains in the eastern and northern maize

areas. This was followed by cool dry weather early in the weekend period and

warm dry weather later in the weekend. The outlook for this week continues the

warmer, drier trend for most areas. Last weeks rain will favor early

development of the new sugarcane crop but there may be some field work delays.

Showers in the east maize areas may encourage more planting. However, western

areas are still too dry for widespread planting to begin.

UKRAINE/WEST AND SOUTH RUSSIA: Light to moderate showers with locally heavier

developed through southwest, central and northeast Ukraine at the end of last

week. A few showers also moved into the Black Soils region. A second area of

light to moderate rain also impacted Crimea and North Caucasus Russia

Friday-Saturday. Showers maintain more favorable growing conditions for winter

grains while causing minor and local delays to the harvest of summer crops.

INDIA: Monsoon rains continue to impact Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Sri Lanka and

southern most Andhra Pradesh and southern most Karnataka. This will favor late

developing summer crops and early growth of winter crops in these locations.

TROPICS: An area of low pressure in the southwest Gulf of Mexico is being

watched. There is a chance this could develop to a tropical depression during

the week. The early call would suggest a movement towards the Yucatan

Peninsula, western Cuba and then south Florida... should anything develop.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES/FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

WEST: Mostly dry during the weekend period. Temperatures averaged near normal

Saturday, above normal Sunday.

EAST: Episodes of sprinkles and afternoon light showers, trace-0.25 inch and

locally heavier, mainly occurred from northeast Illinois and eastern Wisconsin

eastward and southward into central Indiana and southern Ohio. Temperatures

averaged near to below normal Saturday, near to above normal west and below

normal east Sunday.

Forecast....

WEST: Mostly dry today through early Wednesday. Scattered light showers with

locally heavier are expected in the west and north-central areas late Wednesday

or during Wednesday night. Temperatures average above normal during this

period.

Dry or with only a few light showers in the east Thursday. Dry Friday and

Saturday. Temperatures average above to well above normal.

EAST: Northeast and far east areas may see a few light or very light showers

later today or during tonight. Drier elsewhere in the region today. Mostly dry

tomorrow and Wednesday. Temperatures average above normal today, near to above

normal tomorrow and Wednesday... possibly a little below normal for eastern

areas during this time.

Dry or with only a few very light showers in northern areas during Thursday.

Kansas City, October 19 (World Weather, Inc.) – Scattered showers and thunderstorms occurred in Sul de Minas coffee production areas Friday into Sunday. The precipitation was erratic and mostly light, but a few moderate to locally great amounts were suggested in satellite imagery. Most of the precipitation failed to be great enough to induce flowering, but one or two locations might have been an exception if the satellite imagery estimates are correct. Additional showers will occur early this week followed by a few days of net drying again and then additional rainfall during the coming weekend. A third wave of rain is expected in Sul de Minas and Sao Paulo in early November. Each successive rain event is expected to have a little more coverage and rain intensity relative to that preceding it. In the meantime, tropical weather may impact parts of Cuba and Mexico.
BRAZIL
Scattered showers developed in a portion of Sul de Minas and northeastern Sao Paulo Friday into Sunday morning. The precipitation totals were mostly light. Surface weather observations suggested few totals more than 7 millimeters resulted, but satellite imagery suggests some locally greater amounts occurred.

"Much of the weekend precipitation should have been lost to evaporation without inducing any flowering, but there is a small chance that a “few” areas got enough rain to flower." Temperatures were very warm with highest readings Friday and Saturday in the 30s Celsius with extremes to 40 in minor coffee production areas in northern Sao Paulo and northwestern Minas Gerais. A few coastal areas in Bahia reported highest temperatures in the upper 20s.

Lowest morning temperatures were in the upper teens through the middle 20s. The exception was in southeastern Bahia where readings were in the middle teens.
Weather conditions this week will favor scattered showers in coffee production areas. The precipitation will be quite variable with tonight into Tuesday and again during the weekend being the most likely periods for rain in Sao Paulo and Sul de Minas. Rain will also impact parts of Parana, Zona de Mata, Rio de Janeiro and portions of Espirito Santo and west-central Minas Gerais this week. Rain totals will vary widely and just like two to three weeks ago some pockets of flowering will result. No widespread general flowering is expected – at least not as a byproduct from the early week rain.

Rain totals tonight into Tuesday will vary from 3 to 16 millimeters most often, but there will be some local totals of 16 to 30 millimeters. These greater amounts will be highly localized and may favor more northern Sul de Minas crop areas more than the south, but the potential for stronger thunderstorms will be present in most areas. The greater rainfall may bring out some flowering, especially in those areas where rain falls two days in a row. However, with all of the stress that has occurred recently some crops may need a more convincing amount of rain to fall before flowering can occur. That may evolve during the coming weekend.

Rainfall late Friday into Monday, October 27, will range from 10 to 30 millimeters with a few greater amounts possibly between 30 and 50 millimeters. However, confidence in these greater amounts is low because of the amount of time between now and the weekend in which the forecast could be changed toward less rain. The greater amounts will be localized again, but slightly more numerous than the greater rainfall tonight into Tuesday.
A third wave of rain October 30-November 2 has potential to bring greater rainfall, but the event is too far out in time to have good confidence.

"World Weather, Inc. believes the trend is correct bringing a slow increase in rainfall across key coffee production areas. The first wave of rain tonight into Tuesday will be important in raising humidity and preparing the atmosphere for greater rainfall potentials this coming weekend and again in early November. As we have stated, multiple times in the past few weeks, the rainfall should slowly improve in late October and early November, but it will not suddenly become widespread and significant. That is likely to translate into uneven flowering and erratic rainfall that should improve as time moves along."

Temperatures will slowly cool this week as each wave of rain moves through raising humidity. Highs early this week will be in the upper 20s and lower to a few middle 30s from Parana to central Minas Gerais and Rio de Janeiro while in the 30s to near 40 further north. All coffee areas may heat up again Wednesday into Friday with highs in the 30s and some extremes near 40 in the north. Cooling will then take place again during the coming weekend with upper 20s and lower to a few middle 30s likely in rainfall areas and slightly warmer in the far north where rainfall will still be more limited. Low temperatures each night this week will mostly be in the middle teens to middle 20s. Next week’s temperatures will still be a little warmer biased, but much closer to normal than those of this week.

Café -  20-10-2014

Sumário do Tempo

O padrão atmosférico mudou e uma frente fria conseguiu chegar ao Sudeste, trazendo chuvas em forma de pancadas para as regiões produtoras de café. A chuva ainda é muito irregular em termos de distribuição e volumes, ainda assim é um sinal do retorno da umidade para o Sudeste. Entre essa segunda e terça-feira chove em Minas Gerais, cobrindo zona da Mata, sul e Cerrado. Na quarta-feira, a frente fria leva algumas chuvas para a Bahia, enfraquecendo na sequencia. Nesse período, o tempo abre nas demais áreas produtoras do Sudeste.

Análise agrícola

Tempo seco e quente compromete cafezais

A primeira quinzena de outubro termina terrível para a produção de café do Brasil. As chuvas do final de setembro induziram a abertura dos botões florais em vários municípios produtores de São Paulo e Minas Gerais, porém o tempo voltou a ficar firme e comprometeu o pegamento da florada.

Vale salientar que a florada do final de setembro e início de outubro foi muito irregular, ou seja, não foram todas as regiões que a registraram, nem toda planta. Ainda há botões florais para abrir, que esperam somente a próxima chuva.

Com a demora na ocorrência dessas chuvas a planta está sobre forte estresse hídrico e térmico, por isso, muitos botões florais poderão morrer. Com isso, a produtividade para a safra 2015 ficará comprometida. Ainda é cedo para mensurar as reais perdas da produção cafeeira, mas é fato que será menor do que a média para um ano de bienalidade baixa, como será a de 2015.

As plantas estão com baixos índices foliares e isso poderá colaborar para um percentual mais baixo de pegamento dos botões florais e até mesmo o abortamento dos chumbinhos.

Quando as chuvas retornarem de forma definitiva nas regiões cafeeiras – no mês de novembro – as plantas serão estimuladas a terem novas floradas e isso poderá minimizar as perdas ocorridas até o momento. Mas como mencionado acima, a produção de café em 2015 deverá sofrer reduções significativas.

Previsão para os próximos 10 dias

Para essa semana não há previsão de chuvas sobre as regiões cafeeiras e as temperaturas ainda ficarão muito acima da média para essa época do ano, o que agrava ainda mais a situação dos cafezais, porque paralisa o seu metabolismo.

As chuvas só voltarão para as regiões cafeeiras em meados da semana que vem, mas os volumes acumulados serão insuficientes para elevar os níveis de umidade do solo a patamares confortáveis ao desenvolvimento das plantas. Chuvas em bons volumes e com boa regularidade só deverão ser registradas no finalzinho do mês de outubro e ao longo de novembro.

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Coffee report - 10/20/2014  - (google translator)

Summary of Time

The atmospheric pattern changed and a cold front could reach the Southeast, bringing rains shaped strokes for coffee growing regions. The rain is still very uneven in distribution volumes and still is a sign of the return of moisture to the Southeast. Between that Monday and Tuesday it rains in Minas Gerais, covering the Forest, Cerrado and south zone. On Wednesday, a cold front brings some rain to Bahia, weakening the sequence. During this period, time opens the other producing areas of the Southeast.

agricultural analysis

Dry and hot weather undertakes plantations

The first half of October ends terrible for coffee production in Brazil. The rains of late September led the opening of the buds in various producing municipalities of São Paulo and Minas Gerais, but the time came to stand firm and committed the fixation of flowering.

It is noteworthy that the bloom from late September and early October was very irregular, ie, were not all regions that recorded, not every plant. There is still floral to open, waiting only the buttons next rain.

With the delay in any rainfall the plant is under severe drought and heat stress, so many flower buds may die. Thus, productivity for the 2015 season will be compromised. It is still early to measure the actual losses from coffee production, but it is a fact that will be less than the average for one-year low biannuality, as will 2015.

The plants are low foliar indices and this may contribute to a lower percentage of fixation of the buds and even abortion of pellets.

When the rains return permanently in the coffee regions - in November - the plants will be encouraged to have new blooms and this can minimize the losses incurred so far. But as mentioned above, coffee production in 2015 is likely to suffer significant reductions.

Forecast for the next 10 days

For this week there is no forecast of rain on coffee regions and temperatures will still be well above average for this time of year, which further aggravates the situation of the coffee plantations, because paralyzes your metabolism.

The rains only come back to the coffee regions in the middle of next week, but the accumulated volumes are insufficient to raise levels of soil moisture to comfortable levels for plant growth. Good rains in volumes and with good regularity should be recorded at the very end of October and throughout November.