Early Ag Weather Watch - Oct 20

EARLY LOOK WEATHER REPORT

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...97 AT HARLINGEN TX AND PALM SPRINGS CA

LOW  SUN...15 AT BODIE STATE PARK CA

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 06:00 PM CDT: CARIBOU ME 0.45 INCH

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in fair to good agreement during the outlook

period.

A short wave trough is shown moving from the Pacific Northwest across the

northern plains during the first 2 days of the outlook period. This trough then

moves through the Midwest region before lifting northward into southeast Canada

during the middle to late part of the period. Temperatures continue very warm

ahead of this trough and briefly cool to near or slightly below normal

following the trough. Rainfall associated with the passage of the trough looks

to favor the Midwest region with little expected either in the northern or the

southern plains. A fast west to east flow behind the passage of the trough

probably means the rainfall, even in the more favored Midwest region, should

not be that heavy. High latitude blocking remains weak and confined to the

Arctic circle and northern Greenland areas. The mean trough is over the eastern

Gulf of Alaska to far west Canada. The mean ridge is over the southeast and

middle Atlantic region of the U.S.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

MATO GROSSO/GOIAS, BRAZIL (SOYBEANS): Isolated weekend thundershowers provide

for some local relief to the recent extreme heat in the region but most have

missed this rain chance. The upper level ridge is still in the area which will

limit the chances for meaningful rainfall during the early and middle part of

this week. The longer range outlook suggests that the ridge may slide east and

then weaken somewhat during the coming weekend and early next week. This could

allow for a weak inflow of moisture off the Amazon and increase, somewhat, the

chance for showers.

SAO PAULO AND MINAS GERAIS BRAZIL (COFFEE, SUGARCANE): A few light or very

light showers yesterday and today are not enough to ease stress to coffee trees

that should be flowering at this time of the year or to recently planted new

crop sugarcane. The next chance for scattered showers comes later this weekend

or early next week. The early call on this rain chance is not very promising.

The extended range outlook for the end of the ten day period and for the 11 to

16 day period continue to show increasing shower activity but this is a very

long range outlook and is subject to significant day to day changes.

MIDWEST: Mostly favorable conditions for the delayed harvest of summer crops

and the planting effort for winter wheat during the next 5-7 days, at least.

DELTA: Mainly dry weather is forecast to continue for at least the next 5 to 7

days, possibly longer. This should help improve conditions for mature crops and

the harvest as well as for planting winter wheat.

NORTH PLAINS: Mostly dry weather and warm temperatures during the next 7-10

days will favor crop dry down and harvest progress.

CENTRAL/SOUTH PLAINS: Drier weather will improve field conditions for the

harvest of summer crops and the planting effort for winter wheat. Soil moisture

supplied by recent rains will favor development of earlier planted winter

wheat.

SOUTH AFRICA (MAIZE/SUGARCANE): A strong cold front and surface low moved

through at the end of last week. This lead to moderate and heavy rains through

most sugarcane areas and some moderate rains in the eastern and northern maize

areas. This was followed by cool dry weather early in the weekend period and

warm dry weather later in the weekend. The outlook for this week continues the

warmer, drier trend for most areas. Last weeks rain will favor early

development of the new sugarcane crop but there may be some field work delays.

Showers in the east maize areas may encourage more planting. However, western

areas are still too dry for widespread planting to begin.

UKRAINE/WEST AND SOUTH RUSSIA: Light to moderate showers with locally heavier

developed through southwest, central and northeast Ukraine at the end of last

week. A few showers also moved into the Black Soils region. A second area of

light to moderate rain also impacted Crimea and North Caucasus Russia

Friday-Saturday. Showers maintain more favorable growing conditions for winter

grains while causing minor and local delays to the harvest of summer crops.

INDIA: Monsoon rains continue to impact Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Sri Lanka and

southern most Andhra Pradesh and southern most Karnataka. This will favor late

developing summer crops and early growth of winter crops in these locations.

TROPICS: An area of low pressure in the southwest Gulf of Mexico is being

watched. There is a chance this could develop to a tropical depression during

the week. The early call would suggest a movement towards the Yucatan

Peninsula, western Cuba and then south Florida... should anything develop.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES/FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

WEST: Mostly dry during the weekend period. Temperatures averaged near normal

Saturday, above normal Sunday.

EAST: Episodes of sprinkles and afternoon light showers, trace-0.25 inch and

locally heavier, mainly occurred from northeast Illinois and eastern Wisconsin

eastward and southward into central Indiana and southern Ohio. Temperatures

averaged near to below normal Saturday, near to above normal west and below

normal east Sunday.

Forecast....

WEST: Mostly dry today through early Wednesday. Scattered light showers with

locally heavier are expected in the west and north-central areas late Wednesday

or during Wednesday night. Temperatures average above normal during this

period.

Dry or with only a few light showers in the east Thursday. Dry Friday and

Saturday. Temperatures average above to well above normal.

EAST: Northeast and far east areas may see a few light or very light showers

later today or during tonight. Drier elsewhere in the region today. Mostly dry

tomorrow and Wednesday. Temperatures average above normal today, near to above

normal tomorrow and Wednesday... possibly a little below normal for eastern

areas during this time.

Dry or with only a few very light showers in northern areas during Thursday.