Kansas City, October 19 (World Weather, Inc.) – Scattered showers and thunderstorms occurred in Sul de Minas coffee production areas Friday into Sunday. The precipitation was erratic and mostly light, but a few moderate to locally great amounts were suggested in satellite imagery. Most of the precipitation failed to be great enough to induce flowering, but one or two locations might have been an exception if the satellite imagery estimates are correct. Additional showers will occur early this week followed by a few days of net drying again and then additional rainfall during the coming weekend. A third wave of rain is expected in Sul de Minas and Sao Paulo in early November. Each successive rain event is expected to have a little more coverage and rain intensity relative to that preceding it. In the meantime, tropical weather may impact parts of Cuba and Mexico.
BRAZIL
Scattered showers developed in a portion of Sul de Minas and northeastern Sao Paulo Friday into Sunday morning. The precipitation totals were mostly light. Surface weather observations suggested few totals more than 7 millimeters resulted, but satellite imagery suggests some locally greater amounts occurred.

"Much of the weekend precipitation should have been lost to evaporation without inducing any flowering, but there is a small chance that a “few” areas got enough rain to flower." Temperatures were very warm with highest readings Friday and Saturday in the 30s Celsius with extremes to 40 in minor coffee production areas in northern Sao Paulo and northwestern Minas Gerais. A few coastal areas in Bahia reported highest temperatures in the upper 20s.

Lowest morning temperatures were in the upper teens through the middle 20s. The exception was in southeastern Bahia where readings were in the middle teens.
Weather conditions this week will favor scattered showers in coffee production areas. The precipitation will be quite variable with tonight into Tuesday and again during the weekend being the most likely periods for rain in Sao Paulo and Sul de Minas. Rain will also impact parts of Parana, Zona de Mata, Rio de Janeiro and portions of Espirito Santo and west-central Minas Gerais this week. Rain totals will vary widely and just like two to three weeks ago some pockets of flowering will result. No widespread general flowering is expected – at least not as a byproduct from the early week rain.

Rain totals tonight into Tuesday will vary from 3 to 16 millimeters most often, but there will be some local totals of 16 to 30 millimeters. These greater amounts will be highly localized and may favor more northern Sul de Minas crop areas more than the south, but the potential for stronger thunderstorms will be present in most areas. The greater rainfall may bring out some flowering, especially in those areas where rain falls two days in a row. However, with all of the stress that has occurred recently some crops may need a more convincing amount of rain to fall before flowering can occur. That may evolve during the coming weekend.

Rainfall late Friday into Monday, October 27, will range from 10 to 30 millimeters with a few greater amounts possibly between 30 and 50 millimeters. However, confidence in these greater amounts is low because of the amount of time between now and the weekend in which the forecast could be changed toward less rain. The greater amounts will be localized again, but slightly more numerous than the greater rainfall tonight into Tuesday.
A third wave of rain October 30-November 2 has potential to bring greater rainfall, but the event is too far out in time to have good confidence.

"World Weather, Inc. believes the trend is correct bringing a slow increase in rainfall across key coffee production areas. The first wave of rain tonight into Tuesday will be important in raising humidity and preparing the atmosphere for greater rainfall potentials this coming weekend and again in early November. As we have stated, multiple times in the past few weeks, the rainfall should slowly improve in late October and early November, but it will not suddenly become widespread and significant. That is likely to translate into uneven flowering and erratic rainfall that should improve as time moves along."

Temperatures will slowly cool this week as each wave of rain moves through raising humidity. Highs early this week will be in the upper 20s and lower to a few middle 30s from Parana to central Minas Gerais and Rio de Janeiro while in the 30s to near 40 further north. All coffee areas may heat up again Wednesday into Friday with highs in the 30s and some extremes near 40 in the north. Cooling will then take place again during the coming weekend with upper 20s and lower to a few middle 30s likely in rainfall areas and slightly warmer in the far north where rainfall will still be more limited. Low temperatures each night this week will mostly be in the middle teens to middle 20s. Next week’s temperatures will still be a little warmer biased, but much closer to normal than those of this week.