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sexta-feira, 16 de janeiro de 2015

Net Drying Through Tuesday; Best Rain Potential Delayed
 
Kansas City, January 16 (World Weather, Inc.) – No rain fell in the majority of coffee country Thursday and it will continue very restricted through Tuesday of next week. Showers will increase during mid- to late-week next week, but a general soaking is not very likely in the most important coffee areas prior to January 24 and it is debatable how far north the greater precipitation potentials will extend. Bahia, northern and eastern Minas Gerais, Espirito Santo and Zona de Mata are least likely to see “significant” rain for at least a week and possibly longer. The Cerrado Mineiro coffee areas are becoming much drier, as well and they will not have a very good chance for improved weather until January 24-28.
 
BRAZIL
Dry weather occurred in most coffee production areas in Brazil Thursday. High temperatures were mostly in the upper 20s Celsius in southeastern Bahia and in a small pocket of central Minas Gerais while readings in the 30s were common elsewhere. The highest temperatures varied from 35 to 38 in Zona de Mata, Rio de Janeiro and in random locations in northeastern Minas Gerais, central Bahia and from northern Parana to northern Sao Paulo.
 
Today’s forecast has not changed greatly from that of previous days this week, although the GFS computer forecast model has reduced rain that it advertised Thursday for the last days of January. The model was too wet Thursday at mid-day and again last evening and this morning’s forecast may be a little too dry, but the model is probably doing a better job in limiting the amount of relief that occurs in coffee areas. The World Weather, Inc. Trend Model continues to
 
suggest that only a restricted amount of relief will occur and that at least a flavor of the recent drier biased pattern will linger into early February. That does not mean it will not rain, but it does suggest that an erratic rainfall pattern will occur that will offer limited relief.
 
Zona de Mata coffee remains the most seriously stressed out of all production areas, but unirrigated areas in Espirito Santo, northern and west-central Minas Gerais and Bahia are not far behind. A general bolstering of soil moisture is needed, but not very likely in the current pattern and changes are going to be slight over the next ten days.
 
Rainfall in Sul de Minas and northeastern Sao Paulo will be most significant in the second half of next week and into the following weekend. Until then, any showers that occur will be brief and light with little potential to seriously change the recent drying tendency.
 
Any rain that falls through Tuesday of next week is expected to be mostly insignificant varying from 1 to 15 millimeters with an infrequent greater amount. Parana and southern Sao Paulo will likely be wettest. Crop areas north of Sul de Minas will be left dry or mostly dry.
 
Showers and thunderstorms will increase Wednesday through Friday, January 23, but no general soaking of rain is predicted. Daily rain totals of 5 to 20 millimeters are expected with a few totals as great as 30 in Sao Paulo, Parana and possibly far southern Sul de Minas. Daily rain totals further north will mostly range from 1 to 10 and local totals to 15 millimeters. Northern Sul de Minas will be much drier than areas near the Sao Paulo border and Zona de Mata may stay completely dry.
 
The greatest and most significant rainfall may evolve in the January 24-28 period. Confidence has to be lower during that period of time because the advertised change is so far out in time leaving plenty of opportunity for changes in the outlook. However, a trough of low pressure aloft extending from southern Brazil to Bolivia will begin to redirect Amazon River Basin moisture more into center west and center south Brazil during this period of time. The trough is very weak and may end up too weak to induce a generalized rain, but that is the earliest timeframe that more significant rain may impact Parana, Sao Paulo and Sul de Minas. The trough will have to hold together while drifting northeast to offer any serious increase in rainfall across Zona de Mata or the Cerrado Mineiro region. Higher pressure may reassert itself over northeastern Brazil in the last days of January and if that takes place the trough of low pressure will stall out in southern Brazil and the chances of greater rain in key coffee areas will be forced lower again. The situation will have to be closely monitored.
 
Temperatures are unlikely to change much over the next ten days. Daily highs will be in the 30s Celsius most often with a few upper 20s continuing in southeastern Bahia and a few of the traditionally cooler locations in central Minas Gerais. Extreme highs of 36 to 40 will continue in most of the warmer biased areas noted above in Thursday’s temperature regime. Lowest temperatures at night will be mostly in the upper teens and lower to middle 20s.
Early Ag Weather Watch - Jan 16
 
EARLY LOOK WEATHER REPORT
 
NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:
DATA UNAVAILABLE
 
US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:
 
The US and European models are in fair-poor agreement during the 6-10 day
period. We are leaning more towards the European model today. Both models
indicate a ridge over the western US. The US model shows more trough over the
southwest plains which would imply some precipitation chances for the southern
plains. The European model maintains the trough further to the east over the
central and eastern US  This pattern will continue to allow for some cool air
masses to drop southward out of Canada into the central and eastern US although
no severe arctic cold like we have seen so far this month is indicated at this
time. Due to the position of the trough the best chance for any significant
precipitation with this pattern will be along or off the the east coast.
 
MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:
 
MATO GROSSO, BRAZIL: Near to above normal temperatures and limited rainfall
during the next 7 days will deplete soil moisture and increase stress on pod
filling soybeans.
 
SAO PAULO/MINAS GERAIS, BRAZIL: Hot and mostly dry weather during the next 7
days will deplete soil moisture and increase stress on crops including grains,
coffee and cane.
 
SOUTH BRAZIL (CORN, SOYBEANS): Generally favorable conditions for developing
crops are expected to continue during the next 7 days.
 
ARGENTINA (CORN,SOYBEANS,WHEAT): Mostly favorable weather for developing corn
and soybeans is expected to continue during the next 7 days.
 
EAST MIDWEST/DELTA (WHEAT): Mostly dry weather during the next 7 days along
with a turn to milder weather. No concerns for wheat at this time.
 
WEST MIDWEST (TRANSPORTATION): No storms during the next 7 days. Temperatures
mostly above normal levels.
 
CENTRAL/SOUTH PLAINS: Mostly dry weather is expected for at least the next 7
days Temperatures above to much above normal through early next week, cooler
during midweek. No concerns for wheat at this time.
 
SOUTH AFRICA (MAIZE/SUGARCANE): Above normal temperatures and diminishing
rainfall leave most growing areas of South Africa in need of more moisture. The
crop is in or approaching pollination over eastern areas. Some showers are
expected in eastern areas. It will remain on the dry side in the west.
 
UKRAINE/WEST AND SOUTH RUSSIA: Dry conditions or just a little light
precipitation during the next 5 days. Temperatures near to above normal. No
concerns for wheat at this time.
 
CENTRAL CHINA (WINTER WHEAT): Seasonally dry weather is expected to continue.
No significant concerns at this time.
 
INDIA (WINTER WHEAT): Some recent beneficial showers for the developing wheat
crop.
 
EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:
 
Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat
 
Summary...
 
WEST: Dry conditions. Temperatures above to much above normal.
 
EAST: Mostly dry. Temperatures variable.
 
Forecast...
 
WEST: Mostly dry weather during the next 7 days except for the chance of a
little light snow in the south on Tuesday. Temperatures above to much above
normal through Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Thursday.
 
EAST: Mostly dry weather during the next 7 days except for the chance of some
light snow in the north on Tuesday. Temperatures near normal today, above to
much above normal Saturday-Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday.
 
6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures variable. Precipitation mostly below normal.
 
Central/Southern Plains (Winter Wheat, Corn, Soybean, Sorghum)
 
Summary: Dry weather observed. Temperatures above to much above normal.
 
Forecast: Mostly dry weather during the next 7 days. Temperatures above to much
above normal through Monday, near to above normal Tuesday, near to below normal
Wednesday, below normal Thursday.
 
6-10 Day Outlook...Temperatures variable. Precipitation below normal.
 
Brazil (Wheat, Corn, Soybeans)
 
Summary:
Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...Dry conditions or just a few light showers.
Temperatures variable.
Mato Grosso...Scattered light showers with locally heavier. Temperatures
near to above normal with highs in the low to middle 90s f.
 
Forecast:
Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...Near daily episodes of scattered showers and
thunderstorms through Tuesday. Dry conditions or just a few light showers on
Wednesday and Thursday. Rainfall totals for the next 3 days will be light to
moderate with locally heavier. Temperatures variable through Monday, near to
below normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday.
Mato Grosso...Near daily episodes of scattered light showers with locally
heavier during the next 7 days. Temperatures near to above normal.
 
Central Argentina (Wheat, Corn, Soybeans)
 
Summary: Dry conditions. Temperatures near to below normal.
 
Forecast: Dry weather today. Dry conditions or just a few light showers
Saturday. Episodes of scattered showers and thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday.
Moderate to heavy totals are expected. Dry weather on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms on Thursday. Temperatures near to above
normal Friday, near to below normal Saturday, near to above normal Sunday, near
to below normal Monday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday, variable
Thursday.
 
Mike Palmerino