Net Drying Through Tuesday; Best Rain Potential Delayed

 

Kansas City, January 16 (World Weather, Inc.) – No rain fell in the majority of coffee country Thursday and it will continue very restricted through Tuesday of next week. Showers will increase during mid- to late-week next week, but a general soaking is not very likely in the most important coffee areas prior to January 24 and it is debatable how far north the greater precipitation potentials will extend. Bahia, northern and eastern Minas Gerais, Espirito Santo and Zona de Mata are least likely to see “significant” rain for at least a week and possibly longer. The Cerrado Mineiro coffee areas are becoming much drier, as well and they will not have a very good chance for improved weather until January 24-28.

 

BRAZIL
Dry weather occurred in most coffee production areas in Brazil Thursday. High temperatures were mostly in the upper 20s Celsius in southeastern Bahia and in a small pocket of central Minas Gerais while readings in the 30s were common elsewhere. The highest temperatures varied from 35 to 38 in Zona de Mata, Rio de Janeiro and in random locations in northeastern Minas Gerais, central Bahia and from northern Parana to northern Sao Paulo.

 

Today’s forecast has not changed greatly from that of previous days this week, although the GFS computer forecast model has reduced rain that it advertised Thursday for the last days of January. The model was too wet Thursday at mid-day and again last evening and this morning’s forecast may be a little too dry, but the model is probably doing a better job in limiting the amount of relief that occurs in coffee areas. The World Weather, Inc. Trend Model continues to

 

suggest that only a restricted amount of relief will occur and that at least a flavor of the recent drier biased pattern will linger into early February. That does not mean it will not rain, but it does suggest that an erratic rainfall pattern will occur that will offer limited relief.

 

Zona de Mata coffee remains the most seriously stressed out of all production areas, but unirrigated areas in Espirito Santo, northern and west-central Minas Gerais and Bahia are not far behind. A general bolstering of soil moisture is needed, but not very likely in the current pattern and changes are going to be slight over the next ten days.

 

Rainfall in Sul de Minas and northeastern Sao Paulo will be most significant in the second half of next week and into the following weekend. Until then, any showers that occur will be brief and light with little potential to seriously change the recent drying tendency.

 

Any rain that falls through Tuesday of next week is expected to be mostly insignificant varying from 1 to 15 millimeters with an infrequent greater amount. Parana and southern Sao Paulo will likely be wettest. Crop areas north of Sul de Minas will be left dry or mostly dry.

 

Showers and thunderstorms will increase Wednesday through Friday, January 23, but no general soaking of rain is predicted. Daily rain totals of 5 to 20 millimeters are expected with a few totals as great as 30 in Sao Paulo, Parana and possibly far southern Sul de Minas. Daily rain totals further north will mostly range from 1 to 10 and local totals to 15 millimeters. Northern Sul de Minas will be much drier than areas near the Sao Paulo border and Zona de Mata may stay completely dry.

 

The greatest and most significant rainfall may evolve in the January 24-28 period. Confidence has to be lower during that period of time because the advertised change is so far out in time leaving plenty of opportunity for changes in the outlook. However, a trough of low pressure aloft extending from southern Brazil to Bolivia will begin to redirect Amazon River Basin moisture more into center west and center south Brazil during this period of time. The trough is very weak and may end up too weak to induce a generalized rain, but that is the earliest timeframe that more significant rain may impact Parana, Sao Paulo and Sul de Minas. The trough will have to hold together while drifting northeast to offer any serious increase in rainfall across Zona de Mata or the Cerrado Mineiro region. Higher pressure may reassert itself over northeastern Brazil in the last days of January and if that takes place the trough of low pressure will stall out in southern Brazil and the chances of greater rain in key coffee areas will be forced lower again. The situation will have to be closely monitored.

 

Temperatures are unlikely to change much over the next ten days. Daily highs will be in the 30s Celsius most often with a few upper 20s continuing in southeastern Bahia and a few of the traditionally cooler locations in central Minas Gerais. Extreme highs of 36 to 40 will continue in most of the warmer biased areas noted above in Thursday’s temperature regime. Lowest temperatures at night will be mostly in the upper teens and lower to middle 20s.