Early Ag Weather Watch - Oct 30
EARLY LOOK WEATHER REPORT
NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:
HIGH WED...94 AT THERMAL CA
LOW WED...11 AT HETTINGER ND
24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 06:00 PM CDT: CHARLESTON WV 0.96 INCH
US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:
The US and European models are in fair to good agreement during the first
few days of this period, although there is a slight difference as it concerns
timing of a trough that moves west to east across the northern US and Great
Lakes region during this period. The models are in fair agreement during the
last couple of days of the period. I am using a little more of today's European
model as it concerns the last part of the period.
Today's US model shows a strong short wave trough tracking from the northern
plains across the upper Midwest and Great Lakes region from Thursday to
Saturday of next week. If real this would likely mean somewhat colder weather
returning briefly at the end of the period. The European model is weaker with
this feature and would suggest no significant change in temperatures. Neither
model has much moisture associated with the trough in the US while the US model
has somewhat more precipitation moving across southern Canada.
MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:
MATO GROSSO/GOIAS, BRAZIL (SOYBEANS): A somewhat drier period through Sunday
will favor planting in areas that received significant rains last week and have
adequate soil moisture. The next chance for scattered coverage rain appears to
be early next week.
SAO PAULO AND MINAS GERAIS BRAZIL (COFFEE, SUGARCANE): The region looks to be
somewhat drier and somewhat warmer during the next 4-5 days, although not
totally dry since there will be a few showers occurring at times. The period
Monday through Wednesday of next week looks to be more active. Increasing
showers should favor flowering coffee and developing sugarcane during that time
frame.
MIDWEST: Rain returns to the southern growing areas late in the 5 day and early
in the 6-10 period, leading to slow downs in the harvest of summer crops and
the planting of winter wheat. A more favorable pattern for field work elsewhere
in the region during this period.
DELTA: Improving conditions for summer crop harvests and winter wheat planting
during at least the next 5 days. Wet weather may redevelop after that leading
to field work delays.
NORTH PLAINS: Mostly favorable harvest weather during the next 7-10 days.
CENTRAL/SOUTH PLAINS: Mostly favorable conditions for the harvest of summer
crops and the planting of winter wheat during the next 4 days. Mostly favorable
conditions for developing winter wheat at this time. Rain in southern growing
areas after this period should help maintain/improve growing conditions.
SOUTH AFRICA (MAIZE/SUGARCANE): Hotter, drier weather continues for another 4
or 5 days. This likely means further planting delays for maize through north
and west areas. A strong trough moves in after that which has the potential to
bring widespread showers and thunderstorms to the region.
UKRAINE/WEST AND SOUTH RUSSIA: Drier weather and variable temperatures during
the next 5-7 days. This favors any late summer crop harvests and the final
planting effort for winter grains. Soil moisture should favor development of
winter grains in west and south areas but it may be too dry is some north and
east growing areas.
INDIA: Tropical cyclone 04a, with 50 knot winds, was located near 20.2n/64.3 at
0900 gmt Thursday or in the northern Arabian Sea about 294 miles east of
Masirah island. The system has been moving towards the northeast at 5 knots.
This system is now expected to weaken and dissipate over water before reaching
the coast of either southeast Pakistan or northwest Gujarat India.
EXPANDED SUMMARIES/FORECASTS:
Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat
Summary...
WEST: Dry yesterday. A little drizzle has developed over western areas during
the night. Temperatures averaged near normal yesterday.
EAST: A little light rain in the northeast, drier elsewhere in the region.
Temperatures averaged near to slightly below normal.
Forecast...
WEST: Mostly dry today through Saturday. Temperatures average above normal
today, below or well below normal Friday and Saturday.
Mostly dry Sunday. Chance for rain or showers through northern Missouri and
southeast Iowa during Monday through early Tuesday. Drier elsewhere in the
region during this time. Mostly dry later Tuesday. Temperatures average near to
above normal.
EAST: A few light or very light showers may occur today or tonight, favoring
southern and eastern areas. Showers may linger in the east, drier west, during
Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures average near normal today, below
normal tomorrow and Saturday.
Mostly dry Sunday. Chance for showers or rain through southern Illinois
across to the Ohio river valley during Monday or Tuesday. Only light showers
through northeast areas during this period, little through the northwest.
Temperatures average below normal Sunday, near to above normal Monday and
Tuesday.
6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to above normal
during this period. Rainfall near to above normal south, near to below normal
north.
North Plains (Spring Wheat, Corn, Soybeans)
Summary: Dry or with only a few very light showers through southwest North
Dakota during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged above normal through the
west, below normal central and east.
Forecast: Mostly dry today through early Saturday. Showers or light rain may
develop through the central Montana area later Saturday or during Saturday
night, continued dry elsewhere in the region during this time. Temperatures
average above normal in the west during this period. The eastern areas should
be colder today and Friday before warming to near normal during Saturday.
Chance for showers or scattered light precipitation during Sunday. Drier
Monday. Dry Tuesday. Temperatures average near to above normal during this
period.
6-10 Day Outlook...Temperatures are expected to average near to above normal
during this period, coolest northeast areas. Rainfall near to below normal.
Central/Southern Plains (Winter Wheat, Corn, Soybean, Sorghum)
Summary: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged near to
above normal yesterday.
