Coffee May Rise 40% on Frost After Kraft, Smucker Raised Prices
Brazil, the world’s biggest coffee grower, is facing the risk of frost after hail this month, raising the prospect of a 40 percent jump in bean costs after Kraft Foods Inc. and J.M. Smucker Co. already increased prices.
The chance of frost in Brazil increased with the weakening of La Nina, a cooling of waters in the Pacific Ocean, Brazil’s Somar Meteorologia said this week. Frost in 1994 damaged 35 percent of the crop by 1997, sending prices up 39 percent that year, according to Somar. Should cold weather damage trees this year, coffee may rise to a record $4.20 a pound, the median in a Bloomberg survey of 11 analysts, traders and investors.
Arabica beans have already jumped 24 percent this year on signs demand is outpacing supply. The shortage will be 6.2 million bags in the crop year starting in October, according to Rabobank International. Kraft, maker of Maxwell House coffee, raised prices three times last year. It estimated in February that North American commodity costs would increase $700 million to $800 million this year, or about 1.5 percent of 2010 revenue.
“There is no room for disruption,” said Rodrigo Costa, vice-president of institutional sales at Newedge USA LLC in New York, who correctly forecast a year ago that coffee would climb. “If Brazil has a frost, not only will we see uncharted prices but the situation might become unbearable.”
Arabica coffee for July delivery closed yesterday at $2.992 a pound in New York, after surging to a 14-year high of $3.034, and have more than doubled in the past year. Cocoa futures in New York are up 2.7 percent for the same period and raw sugar is 51 percent higher.
Folgers Coffee
Kraft, based in Northfield, Illinois, increased U.S. prices on Maxwell House and Yuban ground coffees by about 22 percent on March 16, spokeswoman Bridget MacConnell said. Orrville, Ohio- based Smucker, maker of Folgers coffee, raised them by 10 percent in February, Vincent Byrd, director and president of U.S. retail coffee, said on a conference call that month.
Global food costs tracked by the United Nations reached an all-time high in February and the World Bank says that contributed to 44 million more people being driven into poverty in the past year. Inflation is accelerating worldwide, spurring central banks from China to the euro region to increase interest rates, potentially curbing consumer spending.
Arabica coffee, preferred by coffee shops such as Starbucks Corp., climbed as rains associated with La Nina damaged crops in Colombia, the fourth largest producer last year, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Brazil’s crop will be 13 percent smaller than last year, Brazil’s Agriculture Ministry estimates.
Colder Atmosphere
La Nina is now declining and all climate models suggest further weakening, Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology said on April 27.
“As La Nina fades and the atmosphere becomes colder, the cold masses from the South Pole gain intensity and may reach the Center South region” of Brazil, Marco Antonio dos Santos, an agronomist at Somar in Sao Paulo, said on April 27. The Center South includes the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil’s biggest grower of arabica beans.
Cold weather from the South Pole is due in the Center South in the week of May 9 and temperatures are forecast to fall to about 5 degrees Celsius (41 degrees Fahrenheit), Santos said. Coffee trees can be damaged if temperatures fall below 1 degree Celsius, he said.
Frost in Brazilian growing regions can damage trees bearing the following year’s crop. Coffee futures soared to a record $3.375 a pound in 1977 after damage from the “black frost” in Brazil two years earlier, according to Bloomberg data.
“Even without weather disruptions there will be a deficit,” Newedge’s Costa said.
April Hail
There was hail this month in some Brazil growing regions, and the damage was estimated at 50,000 to 60,000 bags, according to Somar. Brazil produced 55.5 million bags last year, according to the USDA. This year’s crop is estimated at between 41.9 million bags to 44.7 million bags by Brazil’s Agriculture Ministry.
“The wild card will be the weather in Brazil,” said Walter “Bucky” Hellwig, who helps oversee $17 billion at BB&T Wealth Management in Birmingham, Alabama and correctly forecast higher gold and oil prices in February. “If Brazil does not have a big crop we will see pressure on prices.”
The earliest frost to damage the crop in Brazil was May 31, 1979, according to Newedge estimates. Brazil’s winter season traditionally extends through August. While Brazilian coffee isn’t deliverable against futures contracts in New York, it’s used in blends by roasters.
Falling Inventories
Stockpiles in producing countries have been falling since 2003, when inventories were at 52.7 million bags, data from the London-based International Coffee Organization show. The 13 million bags in storage now represent 1 1/2 months of global exports, the lowest in at least half a century, according to Jose Sette, the ICO’s executive director.
Inventories in producing nations are 69 percent lower than in 1997 and 71 percent lower than in 1977, years in which coffee prices climbed following frost damage, according to ICO data. Stockpiles were 42 million bags in 1997 and 45 million bags in 1977, Sette said.
“Given what frosts have done to prices in the past, coupled with the tight inventories of arabica, the upside potential if there is a frost is extreme, and records are very likely to be broken,” Keith Flury, an analyst at Rabobank in London said.
Responder Encaminhar Convidar NetCafeBR
sexta-feira, 29 de abril de 2011
Market International coffee price
Market International coffee price
Colombians, UGQ, sold FOB, for May/June shipment at 10¢ and at 12¢ over July “C.” Colombian supremos, screen 17/18, were offered FOB, for May/June shipment from 16¢ to 20¢ over July “C.” Semi washed Brazils, 2/3s, 15/16 were offered FOB for May/June shipment from 10¢ over July “C.”
Santos 2s, screen 17/18, fine cup, were offered FOB for July through Dec. equal shipment from 14¢ under the relevant months “C.”
Santos 2/3s, medium to good bean, fine cup, were offered FOB for July through Dec. equal shipment from 19¢ under the relevant months “C.”
Santos 3/4s were offered FOB for May/June shipment from 19¢ to 16¢ under July “C,” and offered FOB for July through Dec. equal shipment from 29¢ to 26¢ under the relevant months “C.”
Brazil conillon robustas, 5/6s, screen 13, were offered FOB for May/June shipment from 4¢ over July London.
Prime Mexicans were offered FOB Laredo for May/June crossing from 4¢ to 5¢ over July “C.”
Prime Mexicans, were offered FOB Veracruz for May through Aug. equal shipment from 2¢ to 3¢ over the relevant months “C.”
High grown Mexicans, European preparation, were offered FOB Veracruz for May through Aug. equal shipment from 7¢ to 9¢ over the relevant months “C.”
Prime Guatemalas were offered FOB, per 46 kilos, May/June shipment from $7 over July “C.”
Hard bean Guatemalas, European preparation, were offered FOB for May through Aug. equal shipment from $15 over, per 46 kilos, the relevant months “C,” and strictly hard beans, European preparation, were offered FOB, per 46 kilos, for May through Aug. equal shipment from $20 to $22 over the relevant months “C.”
Hard bean Costa Ricas, European preparation, were offered FOB for May/June shipment from $30 over, per 46 kilos, July “C,” and strictly hard beans, European preparation, were offered FOB, per 46 kilos, for May/June/ July equal shipment from $33 to $34 the relevant months “C.”
Central standard Salvadors were offered FOB per 46 kilos, for May/June shipment from $7 over July “C.” High grown Salvadors, European preparation, were offered FOB for May/June/July equal shipment from $10 over per 46 kilos, the relevant months “C.”
Strictly high grown Salvadors, European preparation, were offered FOB for May/June/July equal shipment from $15 to $16 over, per 46 kilos, the relevant months “C.”
Strictly high grown Nicaraguas, European preparation, for May/June/July equal shipment were offered FOB from $17 to $18 the relevant months “C.”
High grown Hondurans, European preparation, were offered FOB, per 46 kilos, for May/June shipment from $2 over July “C.”
Strictly high grown Hondurans, European preparation, were offered FOB, per 46 kilos, for May/June/July equal shipment from $6 over the relevant months “C.”
Hard bean Perus, MCMs, were offered FOB for May/June shipment, per 46 kilos, from $1 over July “C.” Hard bean Perus, MCs, were offered FOB for May/June shipment, per 46 kilos, from equal to July “C.” Uganda robustas, screen 15, were offered exdock for May shipment from 15¢ over July London.
Vietnam robustas, grade 1, were offered exdock for May shipment from 9¢ over July London.
Vietnam robustas, grade 2, were offered exdock for May shipment from 7¢ over July London.
Indonesian robustas, grade 4, 80 defects, were offered exdock for May shipment from 8¢ over July London.
Colombians, UGQ, sold FOB, for May/June shipment at 10¢ and at 12¢ over July “C.” Colombian supremos, screen 17/18, were offered FOB, for May/June shipment from 16¢ to 20¢ over July “C.” Semi washed Brazils, 2/3s, 15/16 were offered FOB for May/June shipment from 10¢ over July “C.”
Santos 2s, screen 17/18, fine cup, were offered FOB for July through Dec. equal shipment from 14¢ under the relevant months “C.”
Santos 2/3s, medium to good bean, fine cup, were offered FOB for July through Dec. equal shipment from 19¢ under the relevant months “C.”
Santos 3/4s were offered FOB for May/June shipment from 19¢ to 16¢ under July “C,” and offered FOB for July through Dec. equal shipment from 29¢ to 26¢ under the relevant months “C.”
Brazil conillon robustas, 5/6s, screen 13, were offered FOB for May/June shipment from 4¢ over July London.
Prime Mexicans were offered FOB Laredo for May/June crossing from 4¢ to 5¢ over July “C.”
Prime Mexicans, were offered FOB Veracruz for May through Aug. equal shipment from 2¢ to 3¢ over the relevant months “C.”
High grown Mexicans, European preparation, were offered FOB Veracruz for May through Aug. equal shipment from 7¢ to 9¢ over the relevant months “C.”
Prime Guatemalas were offered FOB, per 46 kilos, May/June shipment from $7 over July “C.”
Hard bean Guatemalas, European preparation, were offered FOB for May through Aug. equal shipment from $15 over, per 46 kilos, the relevant months “C,” and strictly hard beans, European preparation, were offered FOB, per 46 kilos, for May through Aug. equal shipment from $20 to $22 over the relevant months “C.”
Hard bean Costa Ricas, European preparation, were offered FOB for May/June shipment from $30 over, per 46 kilos, July “C,” and strictly hard beans, European preparation, were offered FOB, per 46 kilos, for May/June/ July equal shipment from $33 to $34 the relevant months “C.”
Central standard Salvadors were offered FOB per 46 kilos, for May/June shipment from $7 over July “C.” High grown Salvadors, European preparation, were offered FOB for May/June/July equal shipment from $10 over per 46 kilos, the relevant months “C.”
Strictly high grown Salvadors, European preparation, were offered FOB for May/June/July equal shipment from $15 to $16 over, per 46 kilos, the relevant months “C.”
Strictly high grown Nicaraguas, European preparation, for May/June/July equal shipment were offered FOB from $17 to $18 the relevant months “C.”
High grown Hondurans, European preparation, were offered FOB, per 46 kilos, for May/June shipment from $2 over July “C.”
Strictly high grown Hondurans, European preparation, were offered FOB, per 46 kilos, for May/June/July equal shipment from $6 over the relevant months “C.”
Hard bean Perus, MCMs, were offered FOB for May/June shipment, per 46 kilos, from $1 over July “C.” Hard bean Perus, MCs, were offered FOB for May/June shipment, per 46 kilos, from equal to July “C.” Uganda robustas, screen 15, were offered exdock for May shipment from 15¢ over July London.
Vietnam robustas, grade 1, were offered exdock for May shipment from 9¢ over July London.
Vietnam robustas, grade 2, were offered exdock for May shipment from 7¢ over July London.
Indonesian robustas, grade 4, 80 defects, were offered exdock for May shipment from 8¢ over July London.
Em dia volátil, café volta a mostrar solidez e fecha com ganhos
Em dia volátil, café volta a mostrar solidez e fecha com ganhos
Os contratos futuros de café arábica negociados na ICE Futures US encerraram esta quinta-feira com altas, em uma sessão caracterizada por uma boa volatilidade. Depois de experimentar ganhos expressivos e romper a primeira resistência, no nível de 302,50 centavos, a posição julho passou a registrar algumas vendas e baixas chegaram a ser reportadas. Próximo do fechamento do intraday, os compradores voltaram a atuar e alguns ganhos foram observados após os ajustes dos monitores. Traders observaram que o mercado continua dando sinais de força, conseguindo, inclusive, romper níveis importantes de ganho. Esses operadores sustentaram que os dois novos focos a serem buscados pelo mercado podem ser 308,50 e 313,95 centavos por libra, antes de se tentar a máxima de maio de 1997, quando atingiu o nível de 318,00 centavos.
Mais uma vez, o café operou dissociado dos mercados externos. Nesta quinta, os grãos, por exemplo, tiveram um comportamento de fraqueza, com perdas expressivas sendo observadas em vários segmentos. Os softs, por sua vez, tiveram um comportamento ligeiramente melhor. O índice CRB, que mede uma cesta de 19 diferentes matérias-primas, encerrou o dia próximo da estabilidade. Fundamentalmente, o mercado continua tendo o suporte contínuo do atual cenário de oferta. Países chaves esperam produções apenas modestas para a temporada, que conta com uma disponibilidade bastante baixa, assim como são fracos os estoques internacionais, seja em países produtores como em nações consumidoras. Esse cenário, somado a uma demanda em crescimento constante, permite que muitas ações especulativas sejam empreendidas no mercado, garantindo que os ganhos consideráveis dessas semanas sejam assimilados e incorporados.
No encerramento do dia, o julho em Nova Iorque teve alta de 280 pontos com 299,20 centavos, sendo a máxima em 303,40 e a mínima em 296,00 centavos por libra, com o setembro registrando oscilação positiva de 270 pontos, com a libra a 301,85 centavos, sendo a máxima em 305,90 e a mínima em 298,80 centavos por libra. Na Euronext/Liffe, em Londres, a posição maio registrou alta de 21 dólares, com 2.531 dólares por tonelada, com o julho tendo valorização de 19 dólares, com 2.555 dólares por tonelada.
De acordo com analistas internacionais, o mercado voltou a demonstrar consistência nesta quinta-feira, com uma abertura apenas moderada e com os ganhos se consolidando ao longo da manhã. Os bearish (baixistas) ampliaram a pressão vendedora que, contudo, não conseguiu ampliar as perdas e o mercado se distanciou, ainda mais, do primeiro grande suporte, no nível de 279,65 centavos. "Tivemos efetivamente um dia interessante, já que, mesmo com um volume de negócios não tão forte, a volatilidade foi considerável e o mercado foi testado nas baixas e conseguiu uma boa recuperação, minutos antes do encerramento do período do intraday", disse um trader.
Nesta quinta-feira 88 notificações foram postadas contra o maio na bolsa de Nova Iorque, totalizando agora 2.355.
A produção de café da Costa Rica em 2010/2011, até o dia 25 de abril, totalizou 1,57 milhão de sacas, 8% a mais que no mesmo período da safra passada, indicou o Instituto de Café da Costa Rica. Cerca de 80% da produção já foi vendida ao exterior, com uma preço médio de 2,17 dólares por libra, muito acima do 1,55 dólar da safra anterior. As exportações até o último dia 25 somaram 1,25 milhão de sacas, contra 1,10 milhão de sacas de 2009/2010. O consumo doméstico foi estimado em 158.688 sacas, contra 137.627 sacas do ano anterior.
As exportações de café do Brasil em abril, até o dia 27, somaram 2.091.407 sacas, contra 1.809.696 sacas registradas no mesmo período de março, informou o Cecafé (Conselho dos Exportadores de Café do Brasil).
Os estoques certificados de café na bolsa de Nova Iorque tiveram queda de 1.308 sacas indo para 1.579.592 sacas. O volume negociado no dia na ICE Futures US foi estimado em 14.405 lotes, com as opções tendo 2.989 calls e 3.840 puts. Tecnicamente, o julho na ICE Futures US tem uma resistência em 303,40-303,50, 304,00, 304,50, 304,90-305,00, 305,50 e 306,00 centavos de dólar por libra peso, com o suporte em 296,00, 295,50, 295,10-295,00, 294,50, 294,00, 293,50, 293,00, 292,50, 292,00, 291,50 e 291,00 centavos por libra.
Os contratos futuros de café arábica negociados na ICE Futures US encerraram esta quinta-feira com altas, em uma sessão caracterizada por uma boa volatilidade. Depois de experimentar ganhos expressivos e romper a primeira resistência, no nível de 302,50 centavos, a posição julho passou a registrar algumas vendas e baixas chegaram a ser reportadas. Próximo do fechamento do intraday, os compradores voltaram a atuar e alguns ganhos foram observados após os ajustes dos monitores. Traders observaram que o mercado continua dando sinais de força, conseguindo, inclusive, romper níveis importantes de ganho. Esses operadores sustentaram que os dois novos focos a serem buscados pelo mercado podem ser 308,50 e 313,95 centavos por libra, antes de se tentar a máxima de maio de 1997, quando atingiu o nível de 318,00 centavos.
Mais uma vez, o café operou dissociado dos mercados externos. Nesta quinta, os grãos, por exemplo, tiveram um comportamento de fraqueza, com perdas expressivas sendo observadas em vários segmentos. Os softs, por sua vez, tiveram um comportamento ligeiramente melhor. O índice CRB, que mede uma cesta de 19 diferentes matérias-primas, encerrou o dia próximo da estabilidade. Fundamentalmente, o mercado continua tendo o suporte contínuo do atual cenário de oferta. Países chaves esperam produções apenas modestas para a temporada, que conta com uma disponibilidade bastante baixa, assim como são fracos os estoques internacionais, seja em países produtores como em nações consumidoras. Esse cenário, somado a uma demanda em crescimento constante, permite que muitas ações especulativas sejam empreendidas no mercado, garantindo que os ganhos consideráveis dessas semanas sejam assimilados e incorporados.
No encerramento do dia, o julho em Nova Iorque teve alta de 280 pontos com 299,20 centavos, sendo a máxima em 303,40 e a mínima em 296,00 centavos por libra, com o setembro registrando oscilação positiva de 270 pontos, com a libra a 301,85 centavos, sendo a máxima em 305,90 e a mínima em 298,80 centavos por libra. Na Euronext/Liffe, em Londres, a posição maio registrou alta de 21 dólares, com 2.531 dólares por tonelada, com o julho tendo valorização de 19 dólares, com 2.555 dólares por tonelada.
De acordo com analistas internacionais, o mercado voltou a demonstrar consistência nesta quinta-feira, com uma abertura apenas moderada e com os ganhos se consolidando ao longo da manhã. Os bearish (baixistas) ampliaram a pressão vendedora que, contudo, não conseguiu ampliar as perdas e o mercado se distanciou, ainda mais, do primeiro grande suporte, no nível de 279,65 centavos. "Tivemos efetivamente um dia interessante, já que, mesmo com um volume de negócios não tão forte, a volatilidade foi considerável e o mercado foi testado nas baixas e conseguiu uma boa recuperação, minutos antes do encerramento do período do intraday", disse um trader.
Nesta quinta-feira 88 notificações foram postadas contra o maio na bolsa de Nova Iorque, totalizando agora 2.355.
A produção de café da Costa Rica em 2010/2011, até o dia 25 de abril, totalizou 1,57 milhão de sacas, 8% a mais que no mesmo período da safra passada, indicou o Instituto de Café da Costa Rica. Cerca de 80% da produção já foi vendida ao exterior, com uma preço médio de 2,17 dólares por libra, muito acima do 1,55 dólar da safra anterior. As exportações até o último dia 25 somaram 1,25 milhão de sacas, contra 1,10 milhão de sacas de 2009/2010. O consumo doméstico foi estimado em 158.688 sacas, contra 137.627 sacas do ano anterior.
As exportações de café do Brasil em abril, até o dia 27, somaram 2.091.407 sacas, contra 1.809.696 sacas registradas no mesmo período de março, informou o Cecafé (Conselho dos Exportadores de Café do Brasil).
Os estoques certificados de café na bolsa de Nova Iorque tiveram queda de 1.308 sacas indo para 1.579.592 sacas. O volume negociado no dia na ICE Futures US foi estimado em 14.405 lotes, com as opções tendo 2.989 calls e 3.840 puts. Tecnicamente, o julho na ICE Futures US tem uma resistência em 303,40-303,50, 304,00, 304,50, 304,90-305,00, 305,50 e 306,00 centavos de dólar por libra peso, com o suporte em 296,00, 295,50, 295,10-295,00, 294,50, 294,00, 293,50, 293,00, 292,50, 292,00, 291,50 e 291,00 centavos por libra.
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