Steady Drying In Many Areas Through Next Week

 

Kansas City, January 9 (World Weather, Inc.) – Dry and warm weather occurred in Brazil coffee country Thursday and more of the same was expected through the next ten days. A steady rate of drying will occur in many areas leading to the development of stress for some areas and more significant stress in other areas. Bahia, Espirito Santo, Zona de Mata and areas north of Sul de Minas will be driest.

 

BRAZIL
Very little rain was suggested by satellite imagery across Brazil’s coffee production region Thursday. A few thunderstorms occurred randomly in Sao Paulo and northern Parana, but resulting rainfall was mostly quite light. A few other showers of insignificance occurred in eastern Bahia while Sul de Minas, Zona de Mata, Espirito Santo and Rio de Janeiro were dry.

 

Observed weather data was not available from Brazil Thursday, but high temperatures were expected to be mostly in the upper 20s and lower to a few middle 30s Fahrenheit.

 

Limited rainfall and net drying will occur in Brazil’s coffee region through the next ten days. Totally dry weather is not anticipated in all areas, but there will be quite a few locations that will be missed by the isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms that occur. Many of the crop areas that get rain will fail to get enough to counter evaporation resulting in a net loss in soil moisture. Crop stress will slowly evolve and intensify resulting in a growing threat to cherry development, which is similar to what occurred last year at this time. The drier bias is not expected to prevail as long as that of last year, but there is very little sign of change for the coming ten days. Daily rainfall will vary from 1 to 10 millimeters with some potential for greater amounts in a few locations. The region from Rio de Janeiro and Sul de Minas southward to Parana will have the highest frequency of rainfall, but the amounts will still be too light to counter evaporation most of the time.

 

The driest areas in Brazil coffee country will occur from Zona de Mata and central Minas Gerais northward to Bahia where most unirrigated crops will see a steady rate of drying resulting in increasing stress and some threat to production.

 

Daily high temperatures will be in the 30s most often over the next full week to nearly ten days. A few upper 20s will also occur periodically. Morning lows will be in the upper teens and lower 20s most often with a few middle 20s possible.

Coffee Extends Gains on Brazil Worries

Ira Iosebashvili

     Arabica-coffee prices advanced for a fifth consecutive session Friday, rising 14% for the week,
as investors worry about renewed dry weather in Brazil.
     Arabica coffee for delivery in March on the ICE Futures U.S. exchange was recently up 3.8% at
$1.8370 a pound.
     Rain is expected to be sparse in Brazil over the next 10 days, analysts at Newedge said. Brazil
is the source of one-third of the world's coffee and about half of the world's arabica beans.
     Prices rose 50% in 2014, after rainfall in the South American country eased in January,
culminating in Brazil's worst drought in decades. The drought clipped output and fueled worries
about how already weakened trees would fare in 2015, sending prices soaring above $2 a pound and
hitting consumers with a wave of retail-price rises by big roasters such as Starbucks Corp.
     Coffee was the top-performing commodity in 2014 and one of just a few to post a gain amid steep
drops in prices for crude oil, natural gas, copper and soybeans.
     While the market has retreated from those highs, investors are wondering whether a similar
scenario will play out again this year.
     "Right now, it's still too early to declare a drought," said Hernando de la Roche, senior vice
president at INTL FCStone in Miami. "We will have to wait until the end of February to get a better
idea."
     The 2014 coffee harvest in Brazil was the smallest in three years. This year is an off-year in
Brazil's two-year coffee cycle, meaning production would already have been lower without the unusual
weather. Colombia, the world's No. 2 arabica grower, has been ramping up production, which is
helping to alleviate some of the concerns about global supplies. But Colombia only produces about a
quarter as much coffee as Brazil.
     In other markets, orange juice for March delivery was up 0.3% at $1.4160 a pound.
March-delivery cotton was up 0.1% at 60.61 cents a pound. March cocoa was flat at $2,985 a ton after
settling at a two-week high Thursday. The March contract for raw sugar was up 0.1% at 14.89 cents a
pound.