Early Ag Weather Watch - Jan 16

 

EARLY LOOK WEATHER REPORT

 

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:
DATA UNAVAILABLE

 

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

 

The US and European models are in fair-poor agreement during the 6-10 day
period. We are leaning more towards the European model today. Both models
indicate a ridge over the western US. The US model shows more trough over the
southwest plains which would imply some precipitation chances for the southern
plains. The European model maintains the trough further to the east over the
central and eastern US  This pattern will continue to allow for some cool air
masses to drop southward out of Canada into the central and eastern US although
no severe arctic cold like we have seen so far this month is indicated at this
time. Due to the position of the trough the best chance for any significant
precipitation with this pattern will be along or off the the east coast.

 

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

 

MATO GROSSO, BRAZIL: Near to above normal temperatures and limited rainfall
during the next 7 days will deplete soil moisture and increase stress on pod
filling soybeans.

 

SAO PAULO/MINAS GERAIS, BRAZIL: Hot and mostly dry weather during the next 7
days will deplete soil moisture and increase stress on crops including grains,
coffee and cane.

 

SOUTH BRAZIL (CORN, SOYBEANS): Generally favorable conditions for developing
crops are expected to continue during the next 7 days.

 

ARGENTINA (CORN,SOYBEANS,WHEAT): Mostly favorable weather for developing corn
and soybeans is expected to continue during the next 7 days.

 

EAST MIDWEST/DELTA (WHEAT): Mostly dry weather during the next 7 days along
with a turn to milder weather. No concerns for wheat at this time.

 

WEST MIDWEST (TRANSPORTATION): No storms during the next 7 days. Temperatures
mostly above normal levels.

 

CENTRAL/SOUTH PLAINS: Mostly dry weather is expected for at least the next 7
days Temperatures above to much above normal through early next week, cooler
during midweek. No concerns for wheat at this time.

 

SOUTH AFRICA (MAIZE/SUGARCANE): Above normal temperatures and diminishing
rainfall leave most growing areas of South Africa in need of more moisture. The
crop is in or approaching pollination over eastern areas. Some showers are
expected in eastern areas. It will remain on the dry side in the west.

 

UKRAINE/WEST AND SOUTH RUSSIA: Dry conditions or just a little light
precipitation during the next 5 days. Temperatures near to above normal. No
concerns for wheat at this time.

 

CENTRAL CHINA (WINTER WHEAT): Seasonally dry weather is expected to continue.
No significant concerns at this time.

 

INDIA (WINTER WHEAT): Some recent beneficial showers for the developing wheat
crop.

 

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

 

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

 

Summary...

 

WEST: Dry conditions. Temperatures above to much above normal.

 

EAST: Mostly dry. Temperatures variable.

 

Forecast...

 

WEST: Mostly dry weather during the next 7 days except for the chance of a
little light snow in the south on Tuesday. Temperatures above to much above
normal through Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Thursday.

 

EAST: Mostly dry weather during the next 7 days except for the chance of some
light snow in the north on Tuesday. Temperatures near normal today, above to
much above normal Saturday-Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday.

 

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures variable. Precipitation mostly below normal.

 

Central/Southern Plains (Winter Wheat, Corn, Soybean, Sorghum)

 

Summary: Dry weather observed. Temperatures above to much above normal.

 

Forecast: Mostly dry weather during the next 7 days. Temperatures above to much
above normal through Monday, near to above normal Tuesday, near to below normal
Wednesday, below normal Thursday.

 

6-10 Day Outlook...Temperatures variable. Precipitation below normal.

 

Brazil (Wheat, Corn, Soybeans)

 

Summary:
Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...Dry conditions or just a few light showers.
Temperatures variable.
Mato Grosso...Scattered light showers with locally heavier. Temperatures
near to above normal with highs in the low to middle 90s f.

 

Forecast:
Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...Near daily episodes of scattered showers and
thunderstorms through Tuesday. Dry conditions or just a few light showers on
Wednesday and Thursday. Rainfall totals for the next 3 days will be light to
moderate with locally heavier. Temperatures variable through Monday, near to
below normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday.
Mato Grosso...Near daily episodes of scattered light showers with locally
heavier during the next 7 days. Temperatures near to above normal.

 

Central Argentina (Wheat, Corn, Soybeans)

 

Summary: Dry conditions. Temperatures near to below normal.

 

Forecast: Dry weather today. Dry conditions or just a few light showers
Saturday. Episodes of scattered showers and thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday.
Moderate to heavy totals are expected. Dry weather on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms on Thursday. Temperatures near to above
normal Friday, near to below normal Saturday, near to above normal Sunday, near
to below normal Monday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday, variable
Thursday.

 

Mike Palmerino