Early Ag Weather Watch - Oct 22

EARLY LOOK WEATHER REPORT

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...95 AT EL CENTRO NAS CA AND PALM SPRINGS CA AND BULLHEAD CITY AZ

LOW  TUE...22 AT MOUNT WASHINGTON NH

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 06:00 PM CDT: W PALM BEACH FL  2.64  INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are not in very good agreement during the 6-10

day period today. I am using a little more of today's European model and my

ideas from yesterday. However, there is much uncertainty in the outlook today.

The models both show the first trough over the plains at day 6 moving east

and lifting north during the middle of the period. This is where the

similarities end. Today's US model shows another trough, much stronger than the

first, moving over the western US before crossing the Rockies and moving into

the plains later in the period. This model also hints at a significant northern

branch trough dropping southward over the Canadian Prairies before moving into

the north-central US and eventually merging with the first trough over the

plains. If real this would suggest a turn to colder weather through the middle

of the country and a turn to wet weather for the plains and Midwest regions.

This model also picks up on a low moving out of the Caribbean and into the Gulf

of Mexico during the outlook period, suggesting a potential tropical storm or

hurricane. The US model is showing a complex weather pattern for next week and

is unlikely to verify on all aspects of this pattern. However, it is difficult

to choose which aspect might verify or if any of the ideas of the model would

verify at all. The European model shows the western trough dropping southward

over the west coast states during the outlook period and remaining west of the

Rockies through day 10. The European model does not see the Caribbean system at

all and it is further north and more eastward moving with the Canadian trough

during the period. I would like to go with this model with no regrets, however

this is the same model that yesterday showed a cut off low moving over the

southern plains region during the outlook period.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

MATO GROSSO/GOIAS, BRAZIL (SOYBEANS): There appears to be some chance for

increasing shower activity for Mato Grosso and Goias at the end of this week

and also during the extended range outlook. However, it is still not clear

whether or not this means normal rains for the region. If the rainfall comes in

less than expected the temperatures would remain hot and planting delays will

continue.

SAO PAULO AND MINAS GERAIS BRAZIL (COFFEE, SUGARCANE): Sprinkles and light

showers early this week were not enough to ease stress to coffee trees that

should be flowering at this time of the year or to recently planted new crop

sugarcane. The next chance for scattered showers comes this weekend. This rain

chance may favor areas north and east of Sao Paulo and southwest Minas Gerais.

If verified this would imply a better chance for significant showers in major

coffee areas and a somewhat less chance in key sugarcane and citrus areas.

MIDWEST: Mostly favorable conditions for the delayed harvest of summer crops

and the planting effort for winter wheat during the next 5 days. After that

period the weather pattern is more uncertain in nature.

DELTA: Mainly dry weather is forecast to continue for at least the next 5 to 7

days, possibly longer. This should help improve conditions for mature crops and

the harvest as well as for planting winter wheat.

NORTH PLAINS: Mostly dry weather and warm temperatures during the next 5-7 days

will favor crop dry down and harvest progress.

CENTRAL/SOUTH PLAINS: Drier weather will improve field conditions for the

harvest of summer crops and the planting effort for winter wheat. Soil moisture

supplied by recent rains will favor development of earlier planted winter

wheat.

SOUTH AFRICA (MAIZE/SUGARCANE): Drier weather covers most north and west maize

areas during the next 7-10 days along with hotter temperatures. This likely

means delays to planting maize in these locations. The southeast maize and the

major sugarcane areas may see afternoon showers or thundershowers during this

period and less hot weather. This favors planting of maize and development of

sugarcane for these locations.

UKRAINE/WEST AND SOUTH RUSSIA: A cold high pressure system will move southward

to cover the Central Region, the Black Soils Region and the Volga valley of

Russia during the next 5 days. This may favor fall field work but it will also

slow development of winter wheat.

INDIA: Monsoon showers continue for the southern and west-central areas of the

south India region at this time. Little elsewhere in the region. Drier weather

favors maturing summer crops and any harvesting. However, dry weather may be

unfavorable for late filling summer crops and any early developing winter crops

at this time.

TROPICS: Tropical depression 9, with 35 mph winds, was located near 19.4n/92.3w

at 4 am CDT today or over the Bay of Campeche in the southwest Gulf of Mexico

and 120 miles west-southwest of Campeche, Mexico. The system has been moving

towards the east at 6 mph. It is expected to become a tropical storm today

before moving inland over the southwest Yucatan Peninsula tonight and Thursday.

The system should continue to weaken as it moves across the southern Yucatan

Peninsula Thursday and Thursday night. It emerges into the Caribbean Sea during

Friday and continues eastward from there.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES/FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

WEST: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged above to well

above normal yesterday.

EAST: Dry or with only a few very light showers through eastern areas during

the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged near to above normal through western

areas, near to below normal east.

Forecast....

WEST: Scattered showers and thundershowers, 0.10-0.75 inch and locally heavier,

through western and central areas later today or during tonight. A few light

showers through eastern areas during Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures

average above to well above normal during this period.

Mostly dry Saturday. Dry or with only a few showers or thundershowers in

northern areas Sunday. Scattered to widely scattered showers and thundershowers

are possible during Monday. Temperatures average above normal during this

period.

EAST: Dry today. Dry or with only a few light showers through western areas

Thursday. Dry Friday. Temperatures turn cooler today and Thursday, especially

through eastern areas. Warmer again during Friday.

Mostly dry Saturday. Dry or with only a few showers and thundershowers

developing in Wisconsin Sunday or Sunday night. Scattered showers and

thundershowers may reach western Illinois and western Wisconsin during Monday

or Monday night, continued mostly dry elsewhere in the region. Temperatures

average above to well above normal.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to above normal.

Rainfall near to below normal.

North Plains (Spring Wheat, Corn, Soybeans)

Summary: A few light showers west, fair central and east, during the past 24

hours. Temperatures averaged above to well above normal.

Forecast: A few light showers with locally heavier for the southeast portion of

the belt today, dry elsewhere in the region today. Mostly dry tomorrow and

Friday. Temperatures average well above normal during this period.

Mostly dry Saturday. Dry or with only a few light to locally moderate

showers, favoring the east and southeast areas, during Sunday or Monday.

Temperatures average above to near normal during this period.

6-10 Day Outlook...Temperatures are expected to average above to near normal.

Rainfall near to below normal.

Central/Southern Plains (Winter Wheat, Corn, Soybean, Sorghum)

Summary: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged above

normal.

Forecast: A few light to locally moderate showers may occur today or tonight,

favoring central and northern areas. Drier during Thursday. Dry Friday.

Temperatures average well above normal.

Mostly dry Saturday and Sunday. Dry or with only a few light showers

developing Monday or Monday night. Temperatures average well above normal

during this period.

6-10 Day Outlook...Temperatures are expected to average above to near normal.

Rainfall near to below normal.

Mato Grosso/Goias, Brazil (Soybeans)

Summary: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged above to

well above normal through north and east areas, cooler southwest. Highs

yesterday averaged 95-100F (35-38C) through Mato Grosso, 93-104F (34-40C)

through Goias and 85-90F (30-32C) through Mato Grosso Do Sul.

Forecast: Mostly dry today and Thursday. Chance for a few showers and

thundershowers developing Friday or Friday night, favoring western areas.

Temperatures average near to above normal today, above normal tomorrow and

Friday.

A few showers and thundershowers during Saturday. Scattered showers and

thundershowers north, drier south, during Sunday. Dry Monday. Temperatures near

to above normal.

6-10 Day Outlook...Temperatures are expected to average near to above normal

during the period Monday through next Friday. Rainfall is expected to average

near normal during this time.

Joel Burgio