Early Ag Weather Watch - Feb 27

EARLY LOOK WEATHER REPORT

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...88 AT FORT LAUDERDALE FL AND POMPANO BEACH FL

LOW  WED...25 BELOW ZERO AT CLARK WY AND SHIRLEY BASIN WY

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 06:00 PM CT...NEW ORLEANS LA 1.85 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

The US and European models are in fair to good agreement during the next 10

days. I am using a compromise between the models today. The strong secondary

arctic surge that the US model has been forecasting for the plains and Midwest

regions behind the snow storm this weekend is now somewhat weaker and further

to the east.

The short range maps, days 1-5, first show the extreme cold event continuing

for the next few days and then show the moderate to heavy precipitation event

developing over the southeast plains and the southwest Midwest before moving

through the Delta, the south and east Midwest regions.

The longer range maps, days 6-10, continue to show the high latitude

blocking ridge located northwest of Alaska. We see the strong polar vortex over

northern Canada during this period. A weak ridge is expected to develop over

the western US, mostly later in the period. A broad trough is located either

side of the Miss river. This is a cold pattern for Canada and the northern tier

of U.S. states. This is a somewhat warmer pattern for the southern U.S. region

and variable elsewhere in the U.S. Precipitation chances look to be highest

from the lower Miss and Ohio river valleys to the east coast.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

ARGENTINA: Mostly dry weather with a warming trend during the 6 day period.

This will favor developing crops, after recent heavy rains.

BRAZIL SOYBEANS/CORN: Periodic scattered showers and seasonal temperatures will

favor filling crops and early developing second crop corn. Local delays

continue for harvesting the early crops and planting the second crop corn due

to showers. The pattern does not look as wet during the coming days which

should allow for some improvement, except of course in areas impacted by local

thundershowers.

BRAZIL COFFEE, CITRUS, SUGARCANE AREAS: A weakening cold front will drift into

the very dry areas of eastern Sao Paulo and western Minas Gerais during this

weekend. This may allow for scattered light showers with isolated heavier. This

should help ease stress to crops, somewhat. However, more rain will be needed

to end concerns and to prevent further declines in crop prospects. The next

chance for scattered showers to occur appears to be later next week.

CENTRAL/SOUTH PLAINS: Scattered light to locally moderate precipitation during

this weekend will favor dormant winter wheat. Only minor concerns for livestock

areas of the western plains.

MIDWEST: Extreme cold continues to greatly increase usage of natural gas for

heating during the next 5-6 days. Somewhat less cold is possible after that. A

major snow and ice event is shaping up for the southern and eastern Midwest and

the northern Delta region for the weekend period. This likely impacts travel

and transport for these locations. Somewhat less snow is expected in Iowa,

especially northern Iowa, with this system. It does not appear cold enough to

harm Soft Red Wheat in areas that do not have a protective snow cover.

SOUTH AFRICA: Warm to hot temperatures today and Friday will be followed by

scattered showers and thundershowers during the weekend period. This is mostly

a favorable weather pattern for filling maize and developing sugarcane.

CHINA: Moderate to locally heavy snow and rain has occurred through central and

southern winter wheat areas of eastern China and through most winter rapeseed

areas during February. This will help to replenish soil moisture and it will

favor crops when they break dormancy in the spring. Snow to the north was not

as heavy but still fairly significant for this time of the year. Snow and ice

and to a lesser extent rain will have delayed transportation somewhat. The

weather pattern currently favors additional chances for snow or rain through

the Yangtze river valley and the southern part of the North China Plain.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES/FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

WEST: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged at least 15 to

25 degrees below normal yesterday.

EAST: Snow showers and a few squalls occurred in northern areas during the past

24 hours. Dry elsewhere in the region. Temperatures averaged 20-25 degrees

below normal.

Forecast....

WEST: Dry today. Chance for light snow or snow showers during Friday. Mainly

dry north, chance for snow south, during Saturday. Temperatures average well

below normal.

Snow may linger through in Missouri and southeast Iowa during Sunday. Dry

Monday. Dry or with only a little light precipitation in the north during

Tuesday. Temperatures average well below normal during this period.

EAST: Mostly dry today. Dry or with only a little light snow or snow showers

during Friday and Saturday. Temperatures average well below normal.

Snow or freezing rain is expected during Sunday and Sunday night. Heavy

precipitation may occur, favoring southern and eastern areas. Snow may linger

in the east, drier west, during Monday. Dry or with only a little light

precipitation Tuesday. Temperatures average well below normal during this

period.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average below to near normal

during this period. Precipitation should average near to above normal through

the south and east areas, near to below normal northwest.

Central/Southern Plains (Winter Wheat)

Summary: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged well below

normal. Lows yesterday morning ranged from -7 in southwest Nebraska to +34 in

northeast Texas, normals would be 17-41F.

Forecast: Mostly dry today. Dry or with only a little light precipitation

through northwest areas during Friday. Scattered light to locally moderate

precipitation is expected during Saturday into Sunday. The heaviest of this

activity should favor the eastern areas. Dry or with only a little light

precipitation during Monday through Wednesday. Temperatures average below

normal today, below normal north and above normal south tomorrow and Saturday,

below or well below normal Sunday and Monday, below normal Tuesday, near normal

west and below normal east Wednesday.

6-10 Day Outlook...Temperatures are expected to average below to near normal

north, near to above normal south. Precipitation averages near to above normal

through southeast locations, near to below normal through north and southwest

areas.

Brazil (Corn, Soybeans, Citrus, Coffee, Sugarcane)

Summary...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, 0.30-1.50

inches (8-38 mm) and locally heavier, occurred in RGDS and Santa Catarina

during the past 24 hours. Only a few light showers in Parana during this time.

Temperatures averaged near to below normal yesterday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and Goias: A few light showers with isolated heavier in Mato

Grosso and southeast MGDS during the past 24 hours. Little elsewhere in the

region. Temperatures averaged near to slightly above normal.

Sao Paulo/Minas Gerais: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures

averaged above normal yesterday.

Forecast...

Rio Grande do Sul, Parana, MGDS: Scattered light showers with locally heavier

will favor eastern and northern areas today while the southwest turns drier.

Mostly dry tomorrow and Saturday. Temperatures average near to below normal

south and near to above normal north during this period.

A few showers and thundershowers may occur in MGDS during Sunday, dry

elsewhere in the region Sunday. Scattered to widely scattered light showers

with locally heavier during Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures average mostly

near normal south, near to above normal north.

Sao Paulo/Minas Gerais: Mostly dry or with only a few light showers through

extreme west and south areas today. Chance for a few showers and thundershowers

during Friday, mostly in western areas but a few may occur in the east as well.

Scattered to widely scattered light showers during Saturday. Temperatures

average above normal today and Friday, near to above normal Saturday.

Scattered to widely scattered and mostly light showers linger in the region

Sunday and possibly early Monday. Drier later Monday. Chance for showers west,

fair east, during Tuesday. Temperatures average near to above normal Sunday,

above normal Monday and Tuesday.

Argentina (Corn, Soybean, Wheat)

Summary...Cordoba, Sante Fe, Buenos Aires, La Pampa.

Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged below normal

yesterday.

Forecast...

Dry today. Dry or with only a few very light showers during Friday or

Saturday. Temperatures trend a little warmer today and Friday. Cooler in the

south, continued warmer north, during Saturday.

Mostly dry or with only a few light showers Sunday through Tuesday.

Temperatures average near to below normal Sunday, warmer Monday and Tuesday.

Joel Burgio