“Enough rain may fall in northern Parana and a few southwestern Sao Paulo locations during the coming week to ten days to induce some flowering. However, rainfall in southern Sul de Minas and northeastern Sao Paulo will likely prove to be a little light for flowering. A few pockets of greater rain “may” induce some flowering, but the events, if they occur at all, will be rare. Dry or mostly dry conditions will prevail elsewhere.”

World Coffee Weather

Some Teasing Rain Possible In Southern Brazil Later This Week

By Andy Karst

           Kansas City, September 16 (World Weather, Inc.) – Dry weather occurred in Brazil again Monday and more of the same was expected in to Wednesday. Rain late this week may tease some producers and coffee trees with moisture, but very little, if any, significant flowering is anticipated. In the meantime, Typhoon Kalmaegi will move through northern Vietnam today producing rain and windy conditions in some minor coffee production areas.  Another round of abundant rain occurred in southern Mexico Monday with many areas in Central America receiving rain as well. 

BRAZIL

            No rain fell in Brazil coffee areas Monday.  Some light rain was noted in east-central and northeastern Bahia where amounts were 4 to 8 millimeters.  Afternoon high temperatures were mostly in the upper 20s and lower 30s Celsius with an extreme of 35 in central Bahia and one report of 25 in central Minas Gerais.  Lows this morning were 14 to 18 with readings of 20 to 22 in some northern and coastal areas. 

            Mostly dry weather will occur through Wednesday and temperatures will remain mostly unchanged from those of Monday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will evolve in Parana and Sao Paulo Thursday and continuing Friday and Saturday. Some of the rain will shift into southern portions of Sul de Minas and a part of Rio de Janeiro. Rain totals by Sunday will range from 10 to 25 millimeters in Parana and far southern Sao Paulo while varying from 8 to 20 millimeters in far southern Sul de Minas and northeastern Sao Paulo. Any precipitation that falls further north will not be very significant varying from a trace to 6 millimeters.

            Sunday through Tuesday, Sep. 23, rainfall is not likely to be very great. Most coffee areas will be dry during the period and any showers that evolve will be mostly confined to areas near the coast in Espirito Santo, Rio de Janeiro and Bahia. Rain totals will vary from a trace to 6 millimeters most days with a few locally greater amounts. Most other coffee areas will be dry.

            Another weather disturbance from southern Brazil will bring some rain into Parana and southern Sao Paulo Wednesday into Friday of next week, Sep. 24-26. Rain totals will vary from 10 to 25 millimeters again in northern Parana and southern Sao Paulo while 3 to 20 millimeters occurs in southern Sul de Minas, Rio de Janeiro and northeastern Sao Paulo. Coastal areas will be wettest. Dry or mostly dry conditions will prevail further north.

            Enough rain may fall in northern Parana and a few southwestern Sao Paulo locations during the coming week to ten days to induce some flowering. However, rainfall in southern Sul de Minas and northeastern Sao Paulo will likely prove to be a little light for flowering. A few pockets of greater rain “may” induce some flowering, but the events, if they occur at all, will be rare. Dry or mostly dry conditions will prevail elsewhere.

            Temperatures will stay warm through much of this workweek. Highs will vary from the middle 20s to the middle 30s most often followed by lows in the range of 12 to 19 in the south and 14 to 21 in the north. A few extreme highs to 37 may occur in the far north. Some slight cooling is expected in the south during the coming weekend and early part of next week at which time highs in the south will be in the 20s and northern areas will continue in the middle 20s to middle 30s.  Lowest temperatures at night will change little during the weekend or early part of next week.  

     

 COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA

            Satellite imagery suggested that isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms continued Monday in Colombia and western Venezuela.  Most of the resulting rain was light with some locally moderate amounts suspected in western Venezuela.

            Daily showers and thunderstorms will continue through the next week. Portions of Colombia and western Venezuela will receive rain each day and by this time next week most areas will have been impacted at one time or another. Most of the daily rainfall will be light to locally moderate in intensity.

PERU

                        Rain in northern and central parts of Peru was isolated and light Monday while a larger part of southern Peru received light rain as rain was scattered there.

                        Isolated to scattered showers will occur daily in portions of coffee country, but much of the rain will continue erratically distributed and often quite light. Some locally heavy rain will impact southern areas occasionally. 

             

PUERTO RICO/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/CUBA

            Rain was suspected of falling on much of the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico Monday.  Amounts were light to locally moderate.  Scattered and mostly light showers occurred in eastern Cuba.  

            Isolated to scattered showers will continue on a near daily basis through the next week.  Resulting rainfall will remain mostly light, but there will be some occasionally moderate rainfall resulting from a few stronger thunderstorms.

MEXICO/CENTRAL AMERICA

            Rain was widespread from southern Mexico into Guatemala and western Honduras Monday.  Many areas in southern Mexico received moderate to heavy rain with light to moderate amounts occurring in Guatemala and western Honduras.  Light rain impacted a few areas in central and northern Mexico while scattered showers and thunderstorms occurred elsewhere in Central America. 

            Mexico and Central America will see a continuation of scattered shower and thunderstorm activity through the next week. Most of the resulting rain will vary from light to moderate with a few pockets of heavy rainfall. Enough precipitation will occur through the next week to favorably support crop development.

VIETNAM

            At 1500 GMT today, Typhoon Kalmaegi was approaching northern Vietnam approximately 118 miles east of Hanoi, Vietnam at 21.3 north, 107.3 east. Movement was to the west northwest at 24 mph and maximum sustained wind speeds were reaching 81 mph. aHaHan

            Kalmaegi was moving at a moderate forward speed and because of that it will not linger long in any crop region, including coffee areas of northern Vietnam. The storm will move inland across far northern portions of Vietnam a little later today and will be quick in reaching Yunnan, China Wednesday evening.

            The storm will weaken greatly as it moves across northern Vietnam and will be quickly downgraded to tropical storm status as it moves over the coast. Additional weakening will occur during the day and by the time the storm center is near northern coffee areas in Vietnam wind speeds will be too light to have a damaging impact on coffee. However, winds of 30 to 45 mph with higher gusts will be possible in a few areas for a brief period of time. Rain totals in coffee areas may range from 65 to 100 millimeters.

            The wind and heavy rain associated with the storm may knock a few developing cherries to the ground, but the impact on production is not likely to be significant.  The storm will have no impact on Quang Tri or the Central Highlands, although it may reduce rainfall in these areas briefly as it passes by to the north.

            Rain was widespread across the Central Highlands Monday with some heavy rain suspected in northern areas and mostly light rain elsewhere. 

IVORY COAST/GHANA/NIGERIA/CAMEROON

            Rain fell on most areas from central and eastern Ghana into southern Benin, southeastern Nigeria, and northwestern Cameroon Monday with parts of southeastern Nigeria and northwestern Cameroon dry.  Most of the rain was light to locally moderate in intensity.  

            Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue across west-central Africa during the coming week to ten days.  All areas will get rain at one time or another and sufficient amounts will occur to support coffee, cocoa, and other crop development.

EAST-CENTRAL AFRICA (Ethiopia, Uganda, Kenya and Tanzania)

            Rain fell on a large part of western Ethiopia’s coffee producing region Monday with amounts suspected of being mostly light.  Isolated and light showers occurred in Uganda with mostly dry conditions occurring in Kenya and Tanzania.

            Daily showers and thunderstorms will occur from Uganda and western Kenya into Ethiopia coffee production regions through the next week. Rain will be light most often with some moderate and locally heavy rain expected periodically in western Ethiopia.  Northeastern Tanzania and south-central Kenya will see a few light showers from time-to-time while the Pare Region of Tanzania sees little significant rain. 

INDIA

            Scattered and light showers were suspected of occurring in coffee areas of southern India Monday.  Weather conditions are unlikely to change much for a while. The nation’s southern coffee areas will see periodic rainfall, but resulting rainfall will not be great enough to eliminate the need for irrigation.

INDONESIA

            Rain was restricted to a few light showers Monday as much of the archipelago was  dry.  As much as 2 millimeters of rain was reported in a few locations along the western coast of Sumatra and in central Java. 

            Scattered showers will occur regularly during the next week in Sumatra and central Sulawesi while western Java sees periodic rounds of showers.  Rain will continue to be restricted from eastern Java into Timor.