World Coffee Weather

Restricted Rainfall Pattern To Resume in Sul de Minas, Brazil

            Kansas City, February 18 (World Weather, Inc.) – Some important rain fell in Sul de Minas, portions of Sao Paulo and northern Parana Friday through Monday easing long term dryness. However, rainfall was still below average in quite a few areas and the outlook does not paint an abundance of rain for the region. Showers and thunderstorms will occur periodically during the coming week to ten days. Parana and Sao Paulo will be wettest and there will be times when southern Sul de Minas will receive some needed rain, as well. However, areas from northern Sul de Minas northward into unirrigated areas of Bahia will continue stressed in a limited rainfall and warm temperature bias.  Moderate to heavy rain fell on portions of Ivory Coast’s coffee producing area during the holiday weekend and some coffee likely flowered.  Rain was heaviest near Gagnoa and follow up rain there will be important for pollination and early cherry setting in areas that have flowered.  Some rain is expected today with a drier pattern beginning Wednesday.

           

           

BRAZIL 

            Showers and thunderstorms occurred Friday through Monday from Parana through Sao Paulo western and southern Minas Gerais and into southern portions of Zona de Mata and Rio de Janeiro where moisture amounts varied from 14 to 59 mm most often. Some locally heavier rainfall was noted in northern Sao Paulo and western portions of Sul de Minas where upwards to 111 millimeters resulted. However, some of the rain fell on minor coffee production areas.  Northern portions of Zona de Mata into Espirito Santo and interior Bahia remained dry.   Some coastal rain in Bahia produced up to 54 millimeters. The rain was welcome to all coffee areas impacted and a break from crop stress likely resulted, but some of Sul de Minas and Zona de Mata will not have much follow up precipitation limiting the amount of additional relief that will occur.

            Highest temperatures Friday through Monday were in the lower 30s Celsius most often with extreme highs of 34 to 38 in Rio de Janeiro, Espirito Santo and from northeastern Minas Gerais to interior northern Minas Gerais. The coolest temperatures were in west-central Minas Gerais where highs were limited to the upper 20s. Lowest morning temperatures were in the upper teens and lower 20s with a few middle teens from southern Zona de Mata to eastern Bahia.

            Weather conditions through Thursday will produce isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms from Parana to Bahia and Espirito Santo. However, most daily rainfall will vary from 1 to 8 millimeters with a few totals to 20 millimeters.

            Rainfall will increase across Parana and Sao Paulo Friday into Saturday before slowly lifting northeast into Sul de Minas and Rio de Janeiro early to mid-week next week. Amounts will range from 10 to 30 millimeters each day with local totals to 55 in Sao Paulo and Parana while 5 to 20 millimeters and local totals to 30 occur in far southern Sul de Minas. Rainfall further north in Sul de Minas, Zona de Mata, Bahia, Espirito Santo and northern Minas Gerais will not be any different than that of today through Friday with net drying most likely, despite isolated to scattered showers of light intensity.

            Despite additional shower activity in Sul de Minas, Rio de Janeiro and a few other Brazil coffee areas of importance, a general lack of consistent rainfall of significance will leave most of these areas still in need of greater moisture. Crop stress will continue with a further reduction in coffee production possible without any further improvements in rainfall. The areas of greatest concern because of dryness will continue from portions of Sul de Minas and Zona de Mata to Espirito Santo and unirrigated areas of Bahia.

            Weather conditions advertised for the second half of next week and into the first days of March suggest bringing greater rainfall into Sul de Minas and areas further north will be a difficult task to achieve and crop stress may be ongoing or a while longer.

            Temperatures will not change greatly over the coming week to ten days with highs in the upper 20s and lower 30s occurring most often, especially in the wetter areas. Highs further north will be in the lower to middle 30s with extremes in the upper 30s. Lows each night will be in the upper teens and lower 20s.  

MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA

            Dry weather was observed in Mexico Friday through Monday. Mostly dry weather continued southward into Central America with some light shower activity noted from Guatemala into Honduras especially along the eastern coast. Mostly dry weather was noted elsewhere.

            Not much change will occur in coffee weather through the next week. Rain is most likely from random locations in southern Mexico through the Central American countries. Rainfall will be greatest near the Caribbean Coast which is east of most coffee production areas. However, a few showers and thunderstorms will reach into production areas with little impact anticipated.

COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA

            Mostly dry weather occurred Friday through Monday in Venezuela. Showers and thunderstorms occurred in southwestern Colombia while some scattered showers brought light rain to portions of central and northern portions of the nation.

            Northern Colombia and western Venezuela will continue to see little significant rainfall for at least the next week. More frequent precipitation will occur across southern coffee areas of the Colombia with some light shower activity expected in central areas.  Most of the moisture will not be great enough to cause serious delays to harvesting.

PERU

            Scattered and light showers occurred in central and southern Peru during the holiday weekend while a few light showers occurred in northern Peru.

            A similar weather pattern will continue through the next week in Peru. Scattered showers will continue to impact southern and central regions while northern locations receive little significant precipitation. Rainfall in southern and central locations will be light most often which will limit the impact on soil moisture and crop conditions. 

PUERTO RICO/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/CUBA

            Light shower activity occurred across much of the region during the holiday weekend. However, rainfall was light and likely countered by evaporation in most locations. Some local showers may have produced an increase in moisture in some locations.

            A near daily chance of showers and thunderstorms will occur through the next week.  Most of the resulting rain will continue to be light and resulting rainfall is not expected to counter evaporating leaving many areas seasonably dry.

VIETNAM

            Dry weather continued in the Central Highlands Friday through Monday.  Seasonably dry weather will prevail through this week. Some erratic shower activity may develop across portions of the region, but the showers will be brief and light and should not have a significant influence on the region’s soil or crops.

IVORY COAST/GHANA/NIGERIA/CAMEROON

            Satellite imagery and official rainfall reports indicated light to moderate and locally heavy rain fell on Ivory Coast during the holiday weekend with Ghana seeing light rainfall.  Precipitation was heaviest in southern portions of the Ivory Coast where the city of Gagnoa reported 90 millimeters of rain which was likely enough to induce some flowering of coffee in the region.

            Showers and thunderstorms will continue today in Ivory Coast and into portions of Ghana. A drier weather pattern is then expected to develop across much of West-Central Africa. Some isolated to scattered showers may occur on a near daily basis, but precipitation will be limited to mostly coastal locations, outside of coffee country.            

            A close watch on the rainfall distribution is warranted.  Additional rain near and north of Gagnoa, Ivory Coast may increase coffee flowering and follow up rain will be needed to support pollination and early cherry setting. The area impacted by significant rain is still small, but in that region some flowering is suspected.

EAST-CENTRAL AFRICA (Ethiopia, Uganda, Kenya, and Tanzania)

            Light to moderate rain fell on much of Tanzania during the holiday weekend while a large part of southwestern Kenya received light rain.  Isolated and light showers occurred in most other areas with western Ethiopia mostly dry.

            Very little change in the weather will occur over the next week. Much of east-central Africa will be at risk of random to scattered showers and thunderstorms, but most of the resulting rainfall will be light. The exception will be the Pare region of Tanzania which will likely receive some locally moderate rainfall.  Northern Uganda and western Ethiopia will be driest and will see little significant rainfall.

INDONESIA 

                        Rain continued to be restricted in central and northern Sumatra during the holiday weekend.  Meanwhile significant rain fell from southern Sumatra into Java, Timor, and central Sulawesi. 

            A beneficial increase in rain will occur in central and northern Sumatra during the next few days with drier weather returning this weekend into early next week.  Other areas will see daily rounds of scattered showers and thunderstorms through the next week.

INDIA

            Friday through Monday was mostly dry. The dry weather pattern will not change through much of the next week. Most days will be completely dry through the next week but some occasional showers may produce light and insignificant moisture.