Commodities Impact Weather: Southern Plains Precipitation

 

  OMAHA--Variable rains across Brazil, and additional precipitation chances for the Southern Plains
wheat areas, are the primary weather items for the commodity trade's attention Friday.
MILD TREND IN MIDWEST
  The DTN ag weather forecast calls for benign conditions in the Midwest through the next week.
Temperatures will generally range above normal in the western sector, and near to above normal in
the eastern areas.
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE CHANCE FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS
  In the Southern Plains, heavy snow this week will melt and cause some muddy conditions in Texas
Panhandle feedlots for a short time. There are no such issues in southwest Kansas. Meanwhile, recent
rainfall and additional precipitation in the forecast may favor wheat in Texas and parts of
Oklahoma. Conditions do remain dry from Kansas northward. This will become more important as we move
through late winter and into spring.
LIMITED RAIN CHANCE IN CENTRAL BRAZIL
  Central Brazil continues to see limited chances for rain going into late January. Above-normal
temperatures and very low rainfall during the next seven days will deplete soil moisture and
increase stress on pod-filling soybeans.
PERIODIC SHOWERS FOR SOUTHERN BRAZIL
  Across southern Brazil, generally favorable conditions for developing crops continue from southern
Parana southward. Limited rainfall and warmer to somewhat hotter weather will help deplete soil
moisture during the next five days. The region may turn more seasonal in temperatures with a few
shower threats after that.
WEEKEND SHOWERS FOR BRAZIL COFFEE AREAS
  A weak trough and surface cold front remains in southeastern Brazil. This has allowed for somewhat
cooler weather and a few thunderstorms. There is some chance for scattered showers in key coffee,
citrus and sugarcane areas through Sunday. After Sunday, the key coffee areas of Minas Gerais may
turn drier and hotter again while the important coffee, citrus and sugarcane areas of Sao Paulo may
continue to see a few showers and less hot weather.
VARIABLE CONDITIONS IN ARGENTINA
  Argentina's weather pattern remains mostly favorable for crops at this time. Hot weather during
the weekend period may increase the risk to crops somewhat. However, scattered showers and more
seasonal temperatures follow the weekend hot spell.
MINIMAL COLD THREAT IN RUSSIA
  In Russia, some colder conditions are in place near the Volga valley, but the pattern is not
threatening to wheat. The trend remains dry through the next week.
SEASONAL DRYNESS IN CENTRAL CHINA
  In central China, seasonally-dry conditions are expected to continue for the North China Plain
while the Yangtze River valley may see some shower activity at times. There are no significant
concerns for wheat at this time.
BENEFICIAL RAINS IN INDIA
  Light to moderate showers have occurred through key wheat areas of Pakistan and northwest to
north-central India during the past few days. Winter wheat will benefit from these showers as crop
development advances. Showers also fell through some of the winter rapeseed region during the past
two days.
DRYNESS CONCERN IN SOUTH AFRICA
  Above-normal temperatures and diminishing rainfall leave most growing areas of South Africa in
need of more moisture. The crop is in or approaching pollination over eastern areas. Some showers
are expected in southeast locations. It will remain on the dry side in the north and west. Longer
range charts suggest some chance for more widespread showers later next week.

Starbucks price set for 94 pct of 2015 coffee supply -CFO

NEW YORK, Jan 22 (Reuters) - Starbucks Corp has fixed the price it will pay for most of its coffee beans this year after going on a buying spree late last year when prices were under pressure, Chief Financial Officer Scott Maw said on Thursday.

The move reflects a strategy by major coffee buyers to protect against potential spikes in arabica coffee prices amid concerns over prolonged dry weather in top grower Brazil and the impact of leaf disease in Central America.

Maw said Starbucks has now fixed prices on 94 percent of its coffee needs for 2015 after buying a "significant" amount of coffee in the last six weeks of 2014. The company said in October it had covered two-thirds of its bean needs for 2015.

The purchases came as the price for front-month arabica coffee on ICE Futures U.S. fell as low as $1.64 a lb on Dec. 31 from more than $1.90 a lb in late November.

Maw said that, over the last year, Starbucks has tended not to buy coffee when the price exceeded $1.90 a lb.

He has not seen any indication that bean supplies have been disrupted, but opportunity buying under $1.90 might indicate the world's roasters are preparing for a sustained period of high prices.

That level is well off the 2-1/2-year highs above $2.20 seen in October last year, but is still well above historic averages.

"We don't see or hear anything that indicates a slowdown in supply," Maw said. "Everything indicates that the coffee market is still healthy in origin."

 ICE Coffee Falls to Test Important Support -- Technical Analysis

Kira Brecht

 

  ICE March coffee futures are pressing lower again on Thursday, as the recent selling spree
continues. The contract is approaching a test of major support from the Jan. 5 low at $1.6010. The
trend outlook is bearish, but coffee has fallen sharply over the past four sessions, which leaves
the market vulnerable to a consolidation or correction.
ICE March coffee recently traded down 65 points t $1.6060 a pound.
  Action in recent months has seen the bears dominate in the coffee market. ICE March coffee futures
fell from a peak at $2.2910 in mid October to the Jan. 5 low at $1.6010. A minor counter-trend rally
move developed off the early January low, which stalled out at $1.8490, the Jan. 12 daily high. That
ceiling is now an important swing high resistance zone for coffee.
  The bears swooped in decisively on Jan. 15 and four days of heavy selling pressure ensued. Now,
the coffee market has dropped back toward the early January low at $1.6010 and for now is holding
just above that support zone.
  The moving average outlook is bearish for ICE March coffee, as the contract is trading below all
significant moving averages from the 20-day to the 200-day. That position is generally viewed as a
bearish signal by the trend following crowd.
  A look at the monthly continuation chart for ICE coffee reveals that the market is closing in on a
test of important support at $1.5780, the July 2014 monthly continuation low. That marks the lower
border of a large choppy range that confined coffee for much of 2014. That is a significant support
floor and if it were to give way would be strong bearish implications.
  Shifting back to the daily March chart, daily momentum studies are approaching or have already
reached oversold territory, which could open the door for a short-term consolidation period around
the daily chart support at $1.6010. But, if that floor gives way, coffee will be vulnerable to a
test of the $1.5780 zone seen on the monthly continuation chart.
  The trend is bearish. But, the market has fallen swiftly in recent days and is vulnerable to a
consolidation period. On the monthly continuation chart, coffee sees major support at the $1.5780
area. If the bears sustained a strong downside breakout below that zone in the days ahead it would
open the door to a potentially significant slide in coffee prices. A measured move target would
project the potential for significant multi-day to multi-week declines.

Early Ag Weather Watch - Jan 22

EARLY LOOK WEATHER REPORT

 

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:
HIGH WED...85 AT WEST KENDALL FL
LOW WED...18 BELOW ZERO AT GRAND MARAIS MI
24 HOUR RAINFALL AT 7PM: KEY WEST FL 0.53  INCHES

 

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

 

The US and European models are in fair to good agreement during next Tuesday
through Thursday, fair agreement next Friday and Saturday. I am using a
compromise between the models as it concerns the end of this period. The
European model is somewhat deeper with the trough over the Midwest region at
the end of the outlook period and therefore is colder than the US model would
suggest. The US model is somewhat deeper and further north and east with a
southern branch trough over the southwest US at the end of this period. This
implies a chance of rain for the southern portion of the plains wheat belt at
day ten.
The mean maps covering the 8-10 day period continue to show a mean ridge
over western North America with above normal heights centered over the Pacific
Northwest or in southwest Canada. The southern branch trough is located over or
near southern California, Arizona and northwest Mexico. The polar trough is
centered over north and east Hudson Bay Canada. The mean trough extends south
towards southeast Canada and the eastern US at that time. The strong Atlantic
ridge that was mentioned yesterday is still on the maps today but is located
east of where it was depicted yesterday. This is a dry pattern for most key
growing areas within the US region , except possibly for the New Mexico, Texas
and Oklahoma area... if the US model is correct towards day ten. This is a dry
pattern for the Canadian Prairies. This remains a warm pattern outside of the
east coast states but there is a hint on today's models that cold weather may
return to the north and east Midwest regions late in the period.

 

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

 

MATO GROSSO, BRAZIL: Above normal temperatures and limited rainfall during the
next few days will deplete soil moisture and increase stress on pod filling
soybeans. There is some chance for a little more shower activity and less hot
weather after that.

 

SAO PAULO/MINAS GERAIS, BRAZIL: Hot temperatures and less than normal rainfall
continues to impact coffee and citrus trees and developing sugarcane. A few
thundershowers during the past 24 hours helped some but coverage was low.
Scattered showers will be in the area during the next 2-4 days. This should
help ease stress to crops. Longer range charts are somewhat drier and hotter
again.

 

SOUTH BRAZIL (CORN, SOYBEANS): Generally favorable conditions for developing
crops from southern Parana southward at this time. However, the forecast does
not show much shower activity for the region during the next 7 days and it
should turn somewhat hotter.

 

ARGENTINA (CORN,SOYBEANS,WHEAT): Mostly favorable conditions for crops at this
time. A trend towards somewhat hotter and drier weather in corn and soybean
areas will bear watching.

 

EAST MIDWEST/DELTA (WHEAT): No significant cold or precipitation for the soft
red wheat areas during the next 7 days, except possibly some precipitation in
the Delta.

 

WEST MIDWEST (TRANSPORTATION): No storms during the next 7 days. Temperatures
mostly above normal levels.

 

CENTRAL/SOUTH PLAINS: Snow and wind yesterday and last night will increase
stress on livestock in areas from New Mexico to west Texas. It appears this was
mostly south of the key feed lots in southwest Kansas. Precipitation associated
with this snow and also the rain in north-central Texas will favor winter wheat
in the region. Dryness continues of some concern wheat elsewhere in the region.

 

SOUTH AFRICA (MAIZE/SUGARCANE): Above normal temperatures and diminishing
rainfall leave most growing areas of South Africa in need of more moisture. The
crop is in or approaching pollination over eastern areas. Some showers are
expected in southeast locations. It will remain on the dry side in the north
and west.

 

UKRAINE/WEST AND SOUTH RUSSIA: Dry conditions or just a little light
precipitation during the next 5 days. Temperatures near to above normal. No
concerns for wheat at this time.

 

CENTRAL CHINA (WINTER WHEAT): Seasonally dry weather is expected to continue
for the North China Plain while the Yangtze river valley may see some shower
activity at times. No significant concerns at this time.

 

INDIA (WINTER WHEAT): A trough moving over Pakistan and northwest India will
lead to showers in key winter wheat and possibly into winter rapeseed areas as
well during the next 1-3 days. Wheat and rapeseed will benefit from this shower
activity.

 

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

 

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

 

Summary...

 

WEST: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged above to well
above normal yesterday.

 

EAST: A little light precipitation through northern and east-central areas
during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged above to well above normal.

 

Forecast...

 

WEST: Mostly dry today through the daytime hours of Saturday. Chance for a
little light precipitation, favoring north and east areas, during Saturday
night. Temperatures average above to well above normal during this period.
Dry or with only a little light precipitation, favoring the east,  during
Sunday. Mostly dry Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures average above to well above
normal.

 

EAST: Dry or with only a little light precipitation near the Ohio river or in
northern most areas today through Saturday. Temperatures average above normal
during this period.
Light snow or rain showers during Sunday. Mostly dry Monday and Tuesday.
Temperatures average above normal Sunday, cooler Monday and Tuesday...
especially through eastern areas.

 

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to above normal
during this period. Precipitation near to below normal.

 

Central/Southern Plains (Winter Wheat, Corn, Soybean, Sorghum)

 

Summary: Snow and wind overnight for the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles and
northeast New Mexico. Snow totals at this time are uncertain but based on
precipitation recorded and temperatures it will likely come in at 4-8 inches
and may come in heavier. Rainfall through north-central Texas looks to average
0.25-1.00 inch early this morning. Snow and rain through southwest Oklahoma.

 

Drier elsewhere in the region. Temperatures averaged above normal yesterday,
except in areas of snow where it was somewhat cooler.

 

Forecast: Rain or showers and thunderstorms through eastern Texas today. Light
snow and rain lingers over west Texas and southwest Oklahoma mainly this
morning. Drier elsewhere in the region today. Mostly dry tomorrow and Saturday.
Temperatures average near to below normal southwest and near to above normal
elsewhere in the region today and Friday, above to well above normal Saturday.
Mostly dry Sunday through Tuesday. Temperatures average well above normal
during this period.

 

6-10 Day Outlook...Temperatures to average above normal, possibly well above
normal in the west. Precipitation below normal. However, there is a slight
chance for heavier precipitation to occur in the southern areas.

 

Brazil (Wheat, Corn, Soybeans)

 

Summary:
Rio Grande do Sul and Parana: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours.
Temperatures averaged above normal in northern Parana, below normal elsewhere
in the region.

 

Mato Grosso: Mostly dry or with only isolated showers during the past 24
hours. Temperatures averaged mostly near normal.

 

Forecast:
Rio Grande do Sul and Parana: Mostly dry today through Saturday.
Temperatures average below to near normal today, near to above normal Friday,
above normal Saturday.
Dry or with only a few light afternoon thundershowers in Parana Sunday
through Tuesday. Temperatures average mostly above normal during this period.

 

Mato Grosso: Mostly dry south, dry or with only a few light afternoon
thundershowers north, today through Saturday. Temperatures average near to
above normal during this period.
Chance for scattered to widely scattered showers and thundershowers Sunday
through Tuesday. Rainfall potential appears to be light to locally moderate but
locally heavier can not be ruled out. Temperatures average near to above normal
during this period.

 

Central Argentina (Wheat, Corn, Soybeans)

 

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures averaged near to above normal through the
southwest, below normal elsewhere in the region.

 

Forecast: Dry or with only a few showers and thundershowers through southwest
locations today through Saturday. Temperatures turn warmer today, hotter
tomorrow and Saturday. Highs move into the 90s F (32-37C) during this period,
especially through western areas. Highs may reach 100F (38C) or a little hotter
in Cordoba and La Pampa.
Episodes of scattered to widely scattered thundershowers will mainly occur in
La Pampa and southern Buenos Aires Sunday through Tuesday. However a few light
showers may reach to northern Buenos Aires and southern Santa Fe at times.
Temperatures average near to above normal south, above normal central and
north. Highs likely average 91-102F (33-39C) Sunday, 88-99F (31-37C) Monday and
Tuesday.

 

Joel Burgio

Raw Sugar Extends Gains on Brazilian Gasoline Tax HikeAlexandra Wexler

 

  NEW YORK--Raw-sugar futures extended their gains on Wednesday, as traders priced in expectations
for higher demand after the government in top grower Brazil raised taxes on gasoline.
  The move, announced Monday, will likely mean higher prices at the pump for Brazilian drivers.
"This should increase demand for ethanol, which can be used as a substitute for gasoline,"
Commerzbank said in a note.
  Higher demand for ethanol could mean processors use more of their cane to make the biofuel,
thereby limiting sugar production and boosting prices for the sweetener, analysts said.
Brazil will raise taxes on gasoline and diesel on Feb. 1.
  Raw sugar for March delivery on the ICE Futures U.S. exchange was recently up 0.3% at 15.88 cents
a pound, after jumping 3.3% on Tuesday.
  "At this point, most fundamental traders continue to expect surplus conditions past (the first
quarter)," said James Cassidy, senior director of the sugar group at Societe Generale in New York.
The International Sugar Organization predicts global production of the sweetener is likely to
outpace demand for the fifth consecutive year in the season ending Sept. 30, 2015.
  The wild card is whether Brazil's crop will get enough rain. "Precipitation levels for January
thus far that are running at 50% of historical averages through much of the center-south of Brazil,"
Mr. Cassidy said. The center-south region grows about 90% of the country's cane.
  Arabica-coffee futures also edged higher Wednesday on worries about whether Brazil would get
enough rain for proper development of the crop. Brazil is the world's top grower and exporter of
coffee.
  Arabica coffee for delivery in March on ICE was recently up 0.6% at $1.6535 a pound, after
tumbling 3.9% during the previous session.
  Cotton for March delivery was recently 0.1% higher at 57.85 cents a pound, while March-delivery
cocoa eased 0.8% to $2,901 a ton. Orange juice for March delivery was 0.6% lower at $1.4565 a pound.

Parana to Sul de Minas Rainfall Greatest Next Week

Kansas City, January 21 (World Weather, Inc.) – Showers and thunderstorms will evolve slowly over the next few days from Parana to Sul de Minas with some showers of mostly insignificance reaching further north, as well. The greatest rainfall is anticipated for the week next week when areas from southern Sul de Minas into Parana will receive some moderate amounts of rain benefiting coffee greatly. Rain to the north will continue light, but periodic enough to induce some improvement for Rio de Janeiro, a part of Zona de Mata and Cerrado Mineiro. These latter areas will still need greater rainfall to seriously change soil and crop conditions. Bahia and Espirito Santo will remain driest, but get some rain next week.
BRAZIL
Mostly dry weather prevailed in coffee areas again Tuesday. Some areas in Minas Gerais, Bahia, Espirito Santo and Rio de Janeiro have not received rain at all this month and other areas have reported less than 25% of normal rainfall. That kind of dryness in mid-summer is very rare and detrimental to coffee production. Change must occur immediately to prevent another serious decline in production like that of last summer. Relief is expected soon – more so in the south than the north, but some change is forthcoming.

Brazil Coffee Weather Greater Shower Activity, But No General Soaking Rain  

 By Drew Lerner

Kansas City, January 20 (World Weather, Inc.) – Dry and warm conditions prevailed in Brazil coffee areas over the past few days. Northern production areas from Bahia into Zona de Mata will likely continue in a net drying pattern for at least another week, despite a few showers. Areas to the south will experience the development of erratically distributed showers and thunderstorms with highly varying amounts of rainfall. Most areas will not see a tremendous improvement in crop or soil conditions, but some change is expected.
BRAZIL

Most Brazil coffee areas were left dry during the Friday through Monday morning period. A few showers occurred randomly, but none of them were great enough rain producers for a boost in soil moisture. All coffee areas dried out during the period. Temperatures were warm with most highs in the upper 20s and 30s Celsius and lows in the upper teens and lower 20s.
Showers and thunderstorms will be increasing this week, but the precipitation that falls from Sul de Minas northward to Bahia and Espirito Santo will be a general disappointment through Saturday. The presence of showers will help raise humidity and offer slower rates of declining crop and soil conditions, but until a general soaking of rain falls there will not be any dramatic changes.

The showers that occur Tuesday through Saturday will produce 1 to 15 millimeters of rain most often each day, but an occasional amount to 30 millimeters will be possible. Almost all of the greatest rain will fall in Parana and Sap Paulo, but a few locations in Sul de Minas may getsome greater rain. The greater rainfall in Sul de Minas will be more a fluke in the prevailing pattern rather than a trend changing occurrence. With that said, it will not be nearly as dry in the absolute sense as it has been, but a bigger boost in rainfall will be needed to make a more serious change in conditions.

Rain that falls in northern Rio de Janeiro, Zona de Mata, Espirito Santo, northern Minas Gerais and Bahia will be much less frequent and less significant than that to the south. Net drying is likely in all five of these regions, although some rain may occur infrequently and lightly.

The best opportunity for more significant rain will occur next week, but much caution is advised. The change is subtle and will likely still leave a need for greater rain. However, with that said, there will be a daily scattering of showers and thunderstorms from Parana through Sul de Minas, Zona de Mata and Cerrado northward to northern Minas Gerais and a few central Bahia locations. Rain totals on a daily basis will vary from 1 to 15 millimeters in the north with low coverage. Daily rainfall in Sul de Minas, Cerrado and Rio de Janeiro southward to Parana will vary from 8 to 20 millimeters with a few areas to receive more than 32.

Temperatures will change very little over the next two weeks. Highs most days will be in the upper 20s and lower to middle 30s. A few upper 30s will be possible infrequently. Lowest morning temperatures will be in the upper teens and lower to a few middle 20s.

Net Drying Through Tuesday; Best Rain Potential Delayed

 

Kansas City, January 16 (World Weather, Inc.) – No rain fell in the majority of coffee country Thursday and it will continue very restricted through Tuesday of next week. Showers will increase during mid- to late-week next week, but a general soaking is not very likely in the most important coffee areas prior to January 24 and it is debatable how far north the greater precipitation potentials will extend. Bahia, northern and eastern Minas Gerais, Espirito Santo and Zona de Mata are least likely to see “significant” rain for at least a week and possibly longer. The Cerrado Mineiro coffee areas are becoming much drier, as well and they will not have a very good chance for improved weather until January 24-28.

 

BRAZIL
Dry weather occurred in most coffee production areas in Brazil Thursday. High temperatures were mostly in the upper 20s Celsius in southeastern Bahia and in a small pocket of central Minas Gerais while readings in the 30s were common elsewhere. The highest temperatures varied from 35 to 38 in Zona de Mata, Rio de Janeiro and in random locations in northeastern Minas Gerais, central Bahia and from northern Parana to northern Sao Paulo.

 

Today’s forecast has not changed greatly from that of previous days this week, although the GFS computer forecast model has reduced rain that it advertised Thursday for the last days of January. The model was too wet Thursday at mid-day and again last evening and this morning’s forecast may be a little too dry, but the model is probably doing a better job in limiting the amount of relief that occurs in coffee areas. The World Weather, Inc. Trend Model continues to

 

suggest that only a restricted amount of relief will occur and that at least a flavor of the recent drier biased pattern will linger into early February. That does not mean it will not rain, but it does suggest that an erratic rainfall pattern will occur that will offer limited relief.

 

Zona de Mata coffee remains the most seriously stressed out of all production areas, but unirrigated areas in Espirito Santo, northern and west-central Minas Gerais and Bahia are not far behind. A general bolstering of soil moisture is needed, but not very likely in the current pattern and changes are going to be slight over the next ten days.

 

Rainfall in Sul de Minas and northeastern Sao Paulo will be most significant in the second half of next week and into the following weekend. Until then, any showers that occur will be brief and light with little potential to seriously change the recent drying tendency.

 

Any rain that falls through Tuesday of next week is expected to be mostly insignificant varying from 1 to 15 millimeters with an infrequent greater amount. Parana and southern Sao Paulo will likely be wettest. Crop areas north of Sul de Minas will be left dry or mostly dry.

 

Showers and thunderstorms will increase Wednesday through Friday, January 23, but no general soaking of rain is predicted. Daily rain totals of 5 to 20 millimeters are expected with a few totals as great as 30 in Sao Paulo, Parana and possibly far southern Sul de Minas. Daily rain totals further north will mostly range from 1 to 10 and local totals to 15 millimeters. Northern Sul de Minas will be much drier than areas near the Sao Paulo border and Zona de Mata may stay completely dry.

 

The greatest and most significant rainfall may evolve in the January 24-28 period. Confidence has to be lower during that period of time because the advertised change is so far out in time leaving plenty of opportunity for changes in the outlook. However, a trough of low pressure aloft extending from southern Brazil to Bolivia will begin to redirect Amazon River Basin moisture more into center west and center south Brazil during this period of time. The trough is very weak and may end up too weak to induce a generalized rain, but that is the earliest timeframe that more significant rain may impact Parana, Sao Paulo and Sul de Minas. The trough will have to hold together while drifting northeast to offer any serious increase in rainfall across Zona de Mata or the Cerrado Mineiro region. Higher pressure may reassert itself over northeastern Brazil in the last days of January and if that takes place the trough of low pressure will stall out in southern Brazil and the chances of greater rain in key coffee areas will be forced lower again. The situation will have to be closely monitored.

 

Temperatures are unlikely to change much over the next ten days. Daily highs will be in the 30s Celsius most often with a few upper 20s continuing in southeastern Bahia and a few of the traditionally cooler locations in central Minas Gerais. Extreme highs of 36 to 40 will continue in most of the warmer biased areas noted above in Thursday’s temperature regime. Lowest temperatures at night will be mostly in the upper teens and lower to middle 20s.

Early Ag Weather Watch - Jan 16

 

EARLY LOOK WEATHER REPORT

 

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:
DATA UNAVAILABLE

 

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

 

The US and European models are in fair-poor agreement during the 6-10 day
period. We are leaning more towards the European model today. Both models
indicate a ridge over the western US. The US model shows more trough over the
southwest plains which would imply some precipitation chances for the southern
plains. The European model maintains the trough further to the east over the
central and eastern US  This pattern will continue to allow for some cool air
masses to drop southward out of Canada into the central and eastern US although
no severe arctic cold like we have seen so far this month is indicated at this
time. Due to the position of the trough the best chance for any significant
precipitation with this pattern will be along or off the the east coast.

 

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

 

MATO GROSSO, BRAZIL: Near to above normal temperatures and limited rainfall
during the next 7 days will deplete soil moisture and increase stress on pod
filling soybeans.

 

SAO PAULO/MINAS GERAIS, BRAZIL: Hot and mostly dry weather during the next 7
days will deplete soil moisture and increase stress on crops including grains,
coffee and cane.

 

SOUTH BRAZIL (CORN, SOYBEANS): Generally favorable conditions for developing
crops are expected to continue during the next 7 days.

 

ARGENTINA (CORN,SOYBEANS,WHEAT): Mostly favorable weather for developing corn
and soybeans is expected to continue during the next 7 days.

 

EAST MIDWEST/DELTA (WHEAT): Mostly dry weather during the next 7 days along
with a turn to milder weather. No concerns for wheat at this time.

 

WEST MIDWEST (TRANSPORTATION): No storms during the next 7 days. Temperatures
mostly above normal levels.

 

CENTRAL/SOUTH PLAINS: Mostly dry weather is expected for at least the next 7
days Temperatures above to much above normal through early next week, cooler
during midweek. No concerns for wheat at this time.

 

SOUTH AFRICA (MAIZE/SUGARCANE): Above normal temperatures and diminishing
rainfall leave most growing areas of South Africa in need of more moisture. The
crop is in or approaching pollination over eastern areas. Some showers are
expected in eastern areas. It will remain on the dry side in the west.

 

UKRAINE/WEST AND SOUTH RUSSIA: Dry conditions or just a little light
precipitation during the next 5 days. Temperatures near to above normal. No
concerns for wheat at this time.

 

CENTRAL CHINA (WINTER WHEAT): Seasonally dry weather is expected to continue.
No significant concerns at this time.

 

INDIA (WINTER WHEAT): Some recent beneficial showers for the developing wheat
crop.

 

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

 

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

 

Summary...

 

WEST: Dry conditions. Temperatures above to much above normal.

 

EAST: Mostly dry. Temperatures variable.

 

Forecast...

 

WEST: Mostly dry weather during the next 7 days except for the chance of a
little light snow in the south on Tuesday. Temperatures above to much above
normal through Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Thursday.

 

EAST: Mostly dry weather during the next 7 days except for the chance of some
light snow in the north on Tuesday. Temperatures near normal today, above to
much above normal Saturday-Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday.

 

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures variable. Precipitation mostly below normal.

 

Central/Southern Plains (Winter Wheat, Corn, Soybean, Sorghum)

 

Summary: Dry weather observed. Temperatures above to much above normal.

 

Forecast: Mostly dry weather during the next 7 days. Temperatures above to much
above normal through Monday, near to above normal Tuesday, near to below normal
Wednesday, below normal Thursday.

 

6-10 Day Outlook...Temperatures variable. Precipitation below normal.

 

Brazil (Wheat, Corn, Soybeans)

 

Summary:
Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...Dry conditions or just a few light showers.
Temperatures variable.
Mato Grosso...Scattered light showers with locally heavier. Temperatures
near to above normal with highs in the low to middle 90s f.

 

Forecast:
Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...Near daily episodes of scattered showers and
thunderstorms through Tuesday. Dry conditions or just a few light showers on
Wednesday and Thursday. Rainfall totals for the next 3 days will be light to
moderate with locally heavier. Temperatures variable through Monday, near to
below normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday.
Mato Grosso...Near daily episodes of scattered light showers with locally
heavier during the next 7 days. Temperatures near to above normal.

 

Central Argentina (Wheat, Corn, Soybeans)

 

Summary: Dry conditions. Temperatures near to below normal.

 

Forecast: Dry weather today. Dry conditions or just a few light showers
Saturday. Episodes of scattered showers and thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday.
Moderate to heavy totals are expected. Dry weather on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms on Thursday. Temperatures near to above
normal Friday, near to below normal Saturday, near to above normal Sunday, near
to below normal Monday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday, variable
Thursday.

 

Mike Palmerino