Early Ag Weather Watch - Jan 22

EARLY LOOK WEATHER REPORT

 

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:
HIGH WED...85 AT WEST KENDALL FL
LOW WED...18 BELOW ZERO AT GRAND MARAIS MI
24 HOUR RAINFALL AT 7PM: KEY WEST FL 0.53  INCHES

 

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

 

The US and European models are in fair to good agreement during next Tuesday
through Thursday, fair agreement next Friday and Saturday. I am using a
compromise between the models as it concerns the end of this period. The
European model is somewhat deeper with the trough over the Midwest region at
the end of the outlook period and therefore is colder than the US model would
suggest. The US model is somewhat deeper and further north and east with a
southern branch trough over the southwest US at the end of this period. This
implies a chance of rain for the southern portion of the plains wheat belt at
day ten.
The mean maps covering the 8-10 day period continue to show a mean ridge
over western North America with above normal heights centered over the Pacific
Northwest or in southwest Canada. The southern branch trough is located over or
near southern California, Arizona and northwest Mexico. The polar trough is
centered over north and east Hudson Bay Canada. The mean trough extends south
towards southeast Canada and the eastern US at that time. The strong Atlantic
ridge that was mentioned yesterday is still on the maps today but is located
east of where it was depicted yesterday. This is a dry pattern for most key
growing areas within the US region , except possibly for the New Mexico, Texas
and Oklahoma area... if the US model is correct towards day ten. This is a dry
pattern for the Canadian Prairies. This remains a warm pattern outside of the
east coast states but there is a hint on today's models that cold weather may
return to the north and east Midwest regions late in the period.

 

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

 

MATO GROSSO, BRAZIL: Above normal temperatures and limited rainfall during the
next few days will deplete soil moisture and increase stress on pod filling
soybeans. There is some chance for a little more shower activity and less hot
weather after that.

 

SAO PAULO/MINAS GERAIS, BRAZIL: Hot temperatures and less than normal rainfall
continues to impact coffee and citrus trees and developing sugarcane. A few
thundershowers during the past 24 hours helped some but coverage was low.
Scattered showers will be in the area during the next 2-4 days. This should
help ease stress to crops. Longer range charts are somewhat drier and hotter
again.

 

SOUTH BRAZIL (CORN, SOYBEANS): Generally favorable conditions for developing
crops from southern Parana southward at this time. However, the forecast does
not show much shower activity for the region during the next 7 days and it
should turn somewhat hotter.

 

ARGENTINA (CORN,SOYBEANS,WHEAT): Mostly favorable conditions for crops at this
time. A trend towards somewhat hotter and drier weather in corn and soybean
areas will bear watching.

 

EAST MIDWEST/DELTA (WHEAT): No significant cold or precipitation for the soft
red wheat areas during the next 7 days, except possibly some precipitation in
the Delta.

 

WEST MIDWEST (TRANSPORTATION): No storms during the next 7 days. Temperatures
mostly above normal levels.

 

CENTRAL/SOUTH PLAINS: Snow and wind yesterday and last night will increase
stress on livestock in areas from New Mexico to west Texas. It appears this was
mostly south of the key feed lots in southwest Kansas. Precipitation associated
with this snow and also the rain in north-central Texas will favor winter wheat
in the region. Dryness continues of some concern wheat elsewhere in the region.

 

SOUTH AFRICA (MAIZE/SUGARCANE): Above normal temperatures and diminishing
rainfall leave most growing areas of South Africa in need of more moisture. The
crop is in or approaching pollination over eastern areas. Some showers are
expected in southeast locations. It will remain on the dry side in the north
and west.

 

UKRAINE/WEST AND SOUTH RUSSIA: Dry conditions or just a little light
precipitation during the next 5 days. Temperatures near to above normal. No
concerns for wheat at this time.

 

CENTRAL CHINA (WINTER WHEAT): Seasonally dry weather is expected to continue
for the North China Plain while the Yangtze river valley may see some shower
activity at times. No significant concerns at this time.

 

INDIA (WINTER WHEAT): A trough moving over Pakistan and northwest India will
lead to showers in key winter wheat and possibly into winter rapeseed areas as
well during the next 1-3 days. Wheat and rapeseed will benefit from this shower
activity.

 

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

 

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

 

Summary...

 

WEST: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged above to well
above normal yesterday.

 

EAST: A little light precipitation through northern and east-central areas
during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged above to well above normal.

 

Forecast...

 

WEST: Mostly dry today through the daytime hours of Saturday. Chance for a
little light precipitation, favoring north and east areas, during Saturday
night. Temperatures average above to well above normal during this period.
Dry or with only a little light precipitation, favoring the east,  during
Sunday. Mostly dry Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures average above to well above
normal.

 

EAST: Dry or with only a little light precipitation near the Ohio river or in
northern most areas today through Saturday. Temperatures average above normal
during this period.
Light snow or rain showers during Sunday. Mostly dry Monday and Tuesday.
Temperatures average above normal Sunday, cooler Monday and Tuesday...
especially through eastern areas.

 

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to above normal
during this period. Precipitation near to below normal.

 

Central/Southern Plains (Winter Wheat, Corn, Soybean, Sorghum)

 

Summary: Snow and wind overnight for the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles and
northeast New Mexico. Snow totals at this time are uncertain but based on
precipitation recorded and temperatures it will likely come in at 4-8 inches
and may come in heavier. Rainfall through north-central Texas looks to average
0.25-1.00 inch early this morning. Snow and rain through southwest Oklahoma.

 

Drier elsewhere in the region. Temperatures averaged above normal yesterday,
except in areas of snow where it was somewhat cooler.

 

Forecast: Rain or showers and thunderstorms through eastern Texas today. Light
snow and rain lingers over west Texas and southwest Oklahoma mainly this
morning. Drier elsewhere in the region today. Mostly dry tomorrow and Saturday.
Temperatures average near to below normal southwest and near to above normal
elsewhere in the region today and Friday, above to well above normal Saturday.
Mostly dry Sunday through Tuesday. Temperatures average well above normal
during this period.

 

6-10 Day Outlook...Temperatures to average above normal, possibly well above
normal in the west. Precipitation below normal. However, there is a slight
chance for heavier precipitation to occur in the southern areas.

 

Brazil (Wheat, Corn, Soybeans)

 

Summary:
Rio Grande do Sul and Parana: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours.
Temperatures averaged above normal in northern Parana, below normal elsewhere
in the region.

 

Mato Grosso: Mostly dry or with only isolated showers during the past 24
hours. Temperatures averaged mostly near normal.

 

Forecast:
Rio Grande do Sul and Parana: Mostly dry today through Saturday.
Temperatures average below to near normal today, near to above normal Friday,
above normal Saturday.
Dry or with only a few light afternoon thundershowers in Parana Sunday
through Tuesday. Temperatures average mostly above normal during this period.

 

Mato Grosso: Mostly dry south, dry or with only a few light afternoon
thundershowers north, today through Saturday. Temperatures average near to
above normal during this period.
Chance for scattered to widely scattered showers and thundershowers Sunday
through Tuesday. Rainfall potential appears to be light to locally moderate but
locally heavier can not be ruled out. Temperatures average near to above normal
during this period.

 

Central Argentina (Wheat, Corn, Soybeans)

 

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures averaged near to above normal through the
southwest, below normal elsewhere in the region.

 

Forecast: Dry or with only a few showers and thundershowers through southwest
locations today through Saturday. Temperatures turn warmer today, hotter
tomorrow and Saturday. Highs move into the 90s F (32-37C) during this period,
especially through western areas. Highs may reach 100F (38C) or a little hotter
in Cordoba and La Pampa.
Episodes of scattered to widely scattered thundershowers will mainly occur in
La Pampa and southern Buenos Aires Sunday through Tuesday. However a few light
showers may reach to northern Buenos Aires and southern Santa Fe at times.
Temperatures average near to above normal south, above normal central and
north. Highs likely average 91-102F (33-39C) Sunday, 88-99F (31-37C) Monday and
Tuesday.

 

Joel Burgio