Early Ag Weather Watch - Jan 8

 

EARLY LOOK WEATHER REPORT

 

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:
HIGH WED...87 AT FILLMORE CA
LOW  WED...30 BELOW ZERO AT 13 MILES NORTHEAST OF POPLAR MT
24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 06:00 PM CDT: ST STE MARIE MI 0.12 INCH

 

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

 

The US and European models are in somewhat better agreement today, however
the European model still features more trough over the Midwest and northeast US
for a time...along with a storm moving off the east coast. At the end of the
period the models are in better agreement  as the European model has given up
on it's deep trough from yesterday's run.
The mean maps covering the 8-10 day period feature much less high latitude
ridging in favor of a mid latitude ridge over the northern Rockies of the US,
across the northern plains and in the southwest Canadian Prairies. There is
still a strong polar trough over northeast Canada on these maps. There are also
signs of a weak southern branch trough over the southeast US on the European
model and over the southern plains on the US model. Cold weather is likely for
central and east Canada and the Great Lakes region of the US based on the
northeast Canada trough. Warm weather is likely over the western US and
possibly southwest Canada as well based on the mid-latitude ridge. The north
and east plains, the Midwest and the Delta may be on the cool side but probably
not as cold as it is currently. Today's US model does not show much
precipitation, outside of the northwest US area. The European model does show a
system that may bring heavier precipitation to the southeast and middle
Atlantic areas and possible to New England...if this system verifies.

 

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

 

SOUTH AMERICA: The mean ridge position continues over east-central and
sometimes south Brazil during the next 7-10 days. It is not a strong ridge but
it does appear to be strong enough to limit rain chances in Mato Grosso, MGDS,
Parana, Sao Paulo and Minas Gerais Brazil and it may eventually reduce the
shower threats for RGDS as well. It may also promote temperatures at somewhat
above normal levels.

 

MATO GROSSO, BRAZIL: Drier, warm to somewhat hot weather during the next 5-7
days will reduce soil moisture and increase stress to developing crops. Prior
rains may maintain favorable growing conditions early in this period before the
soils dry enough to increase stress to the crop.

 

SAO PAULO/MINAS GERAIS, BRAZIL: Rainfall averages below normal and temperatures
average above normal during the next 7 days. The driest and warmest weather
will likely be in Minas Gerais. Increasing stress to sugarcane, coffee trees
and corn and soybeans in the region during this period.

 

SOUTH BRAZIL (CORN, SOYBEANS): Soil moisture due to prior rains and at least
some shower activity will favor crops in RGDS and southern Parana for awhile.
Conditions are mostly favorable in northern Parana and MGDS as well but there
may be a tendency for net drying in these locations.

 

ARGENTINA (CORN,SOYBEANS,WHEAT): Periodic scattered rains and less hot weather
favors corn and soybeans crops. Episodes of heat and dryness may be impacting
wheat in the southwest as well as some sunflower in the area.

 

EAST MIDWEST/DELTA (WHEAT): The coldest temperatures in Soft Red Wheat areas
are occurring in areas where snow cover should be adequate to protect the crop.
Areas in the south where snow cover is much less are probably not cold enough
to harm the crop.

 

WEST MIDWEST (TRANSPORTATION): No significant storms during the next 7 days.

 

CENTRAL/SOUTH PLAINS: Temperatures should not be cold enough in the wheat belt
to harm the crop in the short range. In the longer range temperatures moderate
somewhat.

 

SOUTH AFRICA (MAIZE/SUGARCANE): A developing moderate upper level ridge may
tend to limit the potential for significant shower activity during the next 5
to 7 days and to promote above normal temperatures. Scattered showers have
occurred in southern areas during the past 24 hours. Temperatures yesterday
averaged near to above normal.

 

UKRAINE/WEST AND SOUTH RUSSIA: Temperatures have dropped below zero F through
much of the wheat belt. Snow cover should protect most of the wheat from the
coldest of these temperatures. However, some areas with low snow cover may be
somewhat impacted.

 

CENTRAL CHINA (WINTER WHEAT): Seasonally dry weather is expected to continue
during the next 7 days. Temperatures trend somewhat warmer during this period.
No significant concerns at this time.

 

INDIA (WINTER WHEAT): Showers have recently occurred in key winter wheat area
of north India. This will favor developing wheat at this time. The region looks
to be somewhat warmer and drier during this week.

 

EXPANDED SUMMARIES/FORECASTS:

 

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

 

Summary...

 

WEST: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged well below
normal.

 

EAST: Snow showers or squalls occurred through northeast areas during the past
24 hours. Mostly dry elsewhere in the region. Temperatures averaged well below
normal. Low temperatures this morning will likely be near or slightly under
zero F as far south as the lower Ohio river valley.

 

Forecast...

 

WEST: Dry or with only a few scattered snow showers today. Mostly dry tomorrow
and Saturday. Temperatures may moderate somewhat this afternoon before very
cold weather returns tonight, Friday and early Saturday. Temperatures may
moderate somewhat again later Saturday.
Mostly dry or with only a little light precipitation, favoring the Missouri
area, Sunday through Tuesday. Temperatures average below normal during this
period, but not as cold as it is currently in the region.

 

EAST: Snow showers or squalls develop through north and northeast areas later
today or during tonight. Drier again tomorrow and Saturday. Temperatures
average well below normal during this period but probably not any colder than
it is currently and maybe a degrees or two warmer.
Chance for a little light precipitation, favoring the southern and eastern
areas, later Sunday through later Monday. Drier again during Tuesday.
Temperatures average near to below normal south, below normal north.

 

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to turn warmer during this period,