Brazil Coffee Weather

Restricted Rainfall, Warm Through Jan. 18

By Drew Lerner

Kansas City, January 8 (World Weather, Inc.) – Very little rainfall of significance

occurred across coffee areas of Brazil Wednesday and similar conditions were likely over

the next ten days. Daily precipitation will rarely be great enough to counter evaporation

with temperatures in a seasonable range. Soil conditions will continue to dry out and

increasing crop stress is likely in those areas with already poor soil moisture. The most

stressful conditions are likely for unirrigated crops from Bahia into Zona de Mata and

central Minas Gerais where there is already a notable dry bias in place.

BRAZIL

Rain Wednesday was limited to brief showers of mostly insignificance in Sao Paulo,

northern Parana, a few far southern Sul de Minas locations in eastern Bahia. Rainfall reached 13

millimeters along the central Bahia coast and the port city of Sao Paulo received 19 millimeters

while no more than 4 millimeters resulted elsewhere. Nearly all of the precipitation proved

insignificant in light of the warm temperatures reported. Highest afternoon temperatures were in

the upper 20s and lower 30s with one northern Sao Paulo location, outside of coffee areas,

reaching 36. Most of the temperatures were very close to normal.

Limited rainfall and net drying will occur in Brazil’s coffee region through the next ten

days. Totally dry weather is not anticipated in all areas, but there will be quite a few locations

that will be missed by the isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms that occur. Many of

the crop areas that get rain will fail to get enough to counter evaporation resulting in a generalized net

loss in soil moisture. Crop stress will slowly evolve and intensify resulting in a

growing threat to cherry development, which is similar to what occurred last year at this time.

The drier bias is not expected to prevail as long as that of last year, but there is very little sign of

change for the coming ten days. Daily rainfall will vary from 1 to 10 millimeters with some

potential for greater amounts in a few locations. The region from Rio de Janeiro and Sul de

Minas southward to Parana will have the highest frequency of rainfall, but the amounts will still

be too light to counter evaporation most of the time.

The driest areas in Brazil coffee country will occur from Zona de Mata and central

Minas Gerais northward to Bahia where most unirrigated crops will see a steady rate of drying

resulting in increasing stress and some threat to production.

Daily high temperatures will be in the 30s most often over the next full week to nearly

ten days. A few upper 20s will also occur periodically. Morning lows will be in the upper teens

and lower 20s most often with a few middle 20s possible.

The month of January will end up notably drier than usual in much of the nation’s most

important coffee production areas.