Scattered Thunderstorms To Spread Northward Next Week

 

Kansas City, January 30 (World Weather, Inc.) – Rain was erratic and light in coffee production areas Thursday. The precipitation may be similar today through Sunday before a gradual increase in rainfall from south to north takes place across key coffee areas. Bahia, northern Minas Gerais and Espirito Santo will receive rain by the end of next week. Minas Gerais will be wettest Monday into Wednesday and Zona de Mata should also receive rain by mid- to late-week next week.

 

BRAZIL
Many coffee production areas were unaffected by significant rain Thursday. Showers occurred randomly across central Minas Gerais and from northern Sao Paulo into northern Parana. Rain totals reached 16 millimeters in northern Sao Paulo – mostly outside of coffee areas – and reached 3 millimeters in a part of Cerrado Mineiro, central Minas Gerais and northern Parana.

 

Highest temperatures Thursday were in the upper 20s and lower 30s Celsius most often. However, a few middle and upper 30s were noted in the driest areas of central Bahia, northern and eastern Minas Gerais and from Zona de Mata into Rio de Janeiro. Extreme highs reached 39 in both Zona de Mata and northeastern Minas Gerais.
Very little rain will fall in coffee production areas through Sunday. Totally dry weather is not expected, but the showers that evolve from Parana to southern Sul de Minas will be very brief and light giving way to net drying conditions in most areas. Rainfall will vary from 1 to 15 millimeters with a couple of greater amounts. Coffee areas further north will be left dry.

 

A notable increase in showers and thunderstorms will evolve across the heart of coffee country next week. The precipitation will increase in Sul de Minas and Sao Paulo Sunday into Monday and gradually expand northward to Bahia by late week while continuing daily further to the south. Daily rainfall will be erratic with the majority of production areas impacted at one time or another by this time next week. Rainfall will vary from 8 to 20 millimeters with local totals to 40 each day. Totals by the end of the week next week will vary from 10 to 25 millimeters in Bahia and northern Minas Gerais and 30 to 70 millimeters in most other areas from Sul de Minas southward into Parana. Local totals to near 85 millimeters will be possible, but only in a few locations. Zona de Mata, northeastern Minas Gerais and Bahia will all get relief from recent weeks of very dry conditions, but the rainfall may be erratic and light suggesting a need for additional generalized rain.

 

Additional showers and thunderstorms will occur in the February 7-10 period with Minas Gerais, Zona de Mata and some southern Espirito Santo locations wettest. The moisture will further improve soil and crop conditions. Bahia and northern Espirito Santo will continue receiving the lightest rainfall and some areas from southwestern Sao Paulo into Parana may experience a little net drying, as well. Most of the coffee crop will benefit from next week’s rain and that which prevails into the following weekend.

 

Very little change in daily temperatures will occur through the next ten days. Highs in the upper 20s and lower to middle 30s will occur most often with some upper 30s possible in rain-free areas periodically. Lowest temperatures at night will be mostly in the middle teens to lower 20s.

Chuvas fortes devem aliviar estiagem na próxima semana

Entre 03 e 07 de fevereiro as chuvas mais fortes em pelo menos 50 dias deverão cair sobre áreas estressadas do Espírito Santo, zona da mata de Minas Gerais e sul da Bahia, de acordo com a Somar Meteorologia.

Os totais devem variar entre 50 a 70 milímetros.

“Sem dúvida, se os índices acumulados esperados se materializarem, os problemas associados com a seca vão terminar”, disse Celso Oliveira, meteorologista da Somar.

Nos próximos dias até 02 de fevereiro, uma frente fria também trará ampla umidade para o sul de Minas Gerais, totalizando 50 milímetros em muitas localidades.

O Paraná, São Paulo, cerrado de Minas Gerais e Alta Mogiana devem receber cerca de 30 milímetros.

As informações partem da Bloomberg.

CAFÉ: Clima seco intensifica danos à produtividade no Brasil
As lavouras de café da zona da
mata de Minas Gerais e do Espírito Santo que tiveram menos de 5% do índice
normal de chuvas no último mês terão de 25% a 50% da média nos próximos
dias, disseram meteorologistas da MDA Weather Services.

    O clima adverso permanece como uma grande preocupação para os produtores
de café da região e, segundo a MDA, haverá mais danos às expectativas de
produtividade uma vez que a pouca umidade afeta o desenvolvimento das cerejas em
 partes do Brasil, maior produtor e exportador mundial de café.

    O norte e o oeste de Minas Gerais, maior estado produtor, permanecem
"muito secos", enquanto que outras regiões devem receber chuvas benéficas. 

Coffee Bounces From Major Support Floor -- Technical AnalysisKira Brecht

 

  ICE March coffee futures are firmer in early Wednesday action. The coffee market is bouncing from
a major support floor seen on the daily, but, more importantly, the weekly continuation chart for
ICE coffee. The trend outlook is bearish, but daily momentum studies had reached oversold levels in
recent days and the coffee market is vulnerable to a counter-trend rally phase.
ICE March coffee recently traded up 105 points at $1.6925 a pound.
  On the daily chart, ICE March coffee futures have been under pressure since the October peak at
$2.2910. From there the market tumbled to a low at $1.6010 on Jan. 5, and a minor counter-trend
rally followed. Last week, March coffee fell to test the $1.6010 support floor and hit a new low at
$1.5940 on Jan. 23, but again bounced from that area and continues to strengthen on Wednesday.
  Shifting out to the weekly continuation chart for ICE coffee, the market is bouncing from a major
long-term support zone. The weekly continuation chart reveals major support at the $1.5780 low from
July 2014 and then $1.6010 in early January 2015. Coffee prices are rallying from that zone this
week. That support floor in the $1.5780-$1.6010 zone represents the bottom of a large 11-month
trading range. The coffee market's willingness to hold above that support zone is a positive signal.
Conversely, if a sustained downside breakout were achieved under the $1.5780-$1.6010 zone it would
trigger a strong bearish chart signal for the coffee market.
  Daily momentum studies, including slow stochastics and the nine-day relative strength index hit
oversold levels around Jan. 22 and have now turned higher. Potential "double bottom" type of support
may be forming on the daily chart off the Jan. 5 low at $1.6010 and the Jan. 23 low at $1.5940.
  On the upside, March coffee is testing 20-day moving average resistance at $1.6981 on Wednesday.
Gains through that area would be a short-term bullish signal and would open the door for a test of
major nearby resistance at the Jan. 12 high at $1.8490.
  The trend is bearish for coffee. But, the market has fallen to a major long-term chart support and
is rebounding from that area. Daily momentum studies are turning up and will support a counter-trend
rally move. If gains are seen through the 20-day moving average, the bulls would begin to target a
retest of the January high.

Early Ag Weather Watch - Jan 27

 

EARLY LOOK WEATHER REPORT

 

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:
HIGH MON...82 AT ANAHEIM CA
LOW  MON...25 BELOW ZERO AT SARANAC LAKE NY
24 HOUR RAINFALL AT 7PM: NEW YORK CITY NY 0.41 INCH

 

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

 

The US and European models are in fair to good agreement during the first
2-3 days of the outlook period, fair to poor agreement after that. I am using a
little more of today's European model as it concerns the end of the 6 to 10 day
period.
Today's US model shows a short wave trough moving across the northern
Rockies during day 8. This trough drops southward over the plains before moving
eastward across the Midwest at the end of this period. This would suggest a
better chance for more widespread precipitation for the Midwest during the
outlook period. The European model and it's ensemble run do not see this
trough. This model suggest less chance for precipitation in the Midwest. The
European model also features a slight westward shift to the mean trough in
Canada which would imply a colder trend for the Midwest and possibly even the
eastern plains region.
There is not much of a southern branch during the 6-10 day period which
suggests a drier trend. However, prior to the 6-10 day period a significant
trough moves across the southern plains before turning northeast over the Delta
and Midwest regions. This system may mean beneficial precipitation for the
plains wheat belt, especially over Texas and Oklahoma and possibly in east and
south Kansas and south Colorado as well.

 

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

 

NORTHEAST US: A Blizzard continues today through the northeast U.S. region.
Travel will likely remain at a standstill today with some improvement possible
tomorrow. Widespread power outages are possible, especially through southeast
New England.

 

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): An increase in shower activity has recently helped ease
concerns for corn and soybean areas of Parana, MGDS and Sao Paulo. A few
showers also for Mato Grosso during this period but not as much., Favorable
conditions for crop areas from southern Parana through RGDS.

 

SAO PAULO/MINAS GERAIS, BRAZIL: Increasing shower and thundershower activity
will help improve conditions for key coffee,  citrus and sugarcane areas of Sao
Paulo. Showers have also helped ease stress to coffee trees in Minas Gerais,
however this area is still seeing below normal rainfall with a tendency for
above normal temperatures. This likely will impact production for coffee in the
areas.

 

ARGENTINA (CORN,SOYBEANS): Mostly favorable conditions for crops at this time.
Hot temperatures Sunday and Monday but then cooler conditions again.

 

EAST MIDWEST/DELTA (WHEAT): While it does turn colder at times it does not look
cold enough to impact wheat. No significant precipitation during the 5 day
period, some increase in precipitation during the 5-7 day period.

 

WEST MIDWEST (TRANSPORTATION): No storms during the next 5 days. We may need to
keep an eye on a system for this Sunday but the early call suggests a track
well south of Iowa.

 

CENTRAL/SOUTH PLAINS (WHEAT/LIVESTOCK): No significant cold weather to impact
wheat or livestock during this week. A weak to moderate southern branch trough
may bring beneficial moisture to southern wheat areas late in the week or
during the weekend. It is too soon to tell whether this will impact the key
feed lots of the northern Texas Panhandle and southwest Kansas.

 

SOUTH AFRICA (MAIZE/SUGARCANE): A slow moving upper level trough is expected to
bring widespread shower and thundershower activity to the region within the
next 1 to 3 days. This will favor reproductive to filling maize and sugarcane,
especially after recent above normal temperatures.

 

UKRAINE/WEST AND SOUTH RUSSIA: The Volga valley has recently turned cold but
the wheat in this area is protected by an adequate snow cover. No significant
cold weather for Ukraine, west or south Russia. Some increase in precipitation
may occur later this week or this weekend. This first improves snow cover to
protect wheat and later when it melts will help improve soil moisture.

 

INDIA (WINTER WHEAT): Light to moderate showers have occurred through key wheat
areas of Pakistan and northwest to north-central India during the past week.
Winter wheat will benefit from these showers as crop development advances.
Showers also fell through some of the winter rapeseed region during the past
couple of days.

 

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

 

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

 

Summary...

 

WEST: Dry or with only a little very light precipitation through eastern most
areas during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged above to well above
normal.

 

EAST: A little light precipitation occurred through western areas and in
extreme east locations during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged near to
above normal west, below normal east.

 

Forecast...

 

WEST: Mostly dry today and early Wednesday. Chance for a little light
precipitation, favoring northeast areas, Wednesday night. Drier again during
Thursday. Temperatures average above to well above normal today and Wednesday,
cooler Thursday but still likely above normal.
Mostly dry Friday. Chance for light precipitation, favoring southern and
eastern areas, during Saturday. Drier again Sunday. Temperatures continue a
colder trend during this period.

 

EAST: Mostly dry today and during the daytime hours of Wednesday. Chance for
light precipitation, favoring north and east areas, during Wednesday night and
early Thursday. Temperatures average near to above normal west and below normal
east today and Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday.
Mostly dry Friday and early Saturday. Light to moderate precipitation,
heaviest south and east areas, later Saturday or during Saturday night and
Sunday. Temperatures average near to below normal during this period.

 

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to below during
this period. Precipitation near to below normal through western and northeast
areas, near to above normal through southeast locations.

 

Central/Southern Plains (Winter Wheat, Corn, Soybean, Sorghum)

 

Summary: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged well above
normal with highs yesterday averaging 63 to 78F, warmest in Oklahoma and
north-central Texas.

 

Forecast: Mostly dry today through Thursday. Temperatures average well above
normal today and Wednesday, cooler Thursday but still significantly above
normal. Highs may reach to 80F today in western and southern areas and again
tomorrow in southern locations.
Light to moderate precipitation through the north Texas area and Oklahoma
during Friday into Saturday. Chance for mostly light precipitation elsewhere in
the region during this time. This activity may favor south Colorado, south and
east Kansas. Drier again during Sunday. Temperatures average near to below
normal during this period.

 

6-10 Day Outlook...Temperatures are expected to vary somewhat during this
period. Precipitation will likely average near to below normal.

 

Brazil (Wheat, Corn, Soybeans)

 

Summary:
Rio Grande do Sul and Parana: A few thundershowers were reported yesterday in
northern Parana. Dry or with only isolated light showers elsewhere in the
region. Temperatures averaged near to above normal south, near to below normal
north.

 

Mato Grosso: Scattered thundershowers were reported in southern MGDS during
the past 24 hours. A few light showers with locally heavier elsewhere in the
region during this time. Temperatures averaged near to below normal.

 

Forecast:
Rio Grande do Sul and Parana: Chance for scattered showers and thundershowers
through eastern and northern Parana today or during tonight. Scattered showers
and thundershowers develop in RGDS and spread to Parana during Wednesday and
Thursday. Temperatures average near to above normal south and near to below
normal north today, near to below normal tomorrow and Thursday.
Scattered showers may linger over east and north Parana Friday, drier
elsewhere in the region Friday. Mostly dry during the weekend. Temperatures
average near to below normal during this period.

 

Mato Grosso: Scattered to widely scattered showers and thundershowers today.
Scattered showers and thundershowers may favor MGDS and southern Mato Grosso
tomorrow and MGDS during Thursday. Temperatures average near to below normal
during this period.
Mostly dry or with only a few light showers Friday through Sunday in Mato
Grosso. Episodes of scattered to widely scattered showers and thundershowers in
MGDS during this time. Temperatures average near to above normal, warmest
through northern areas.

 

Central Argentina (Wheat, Corn, Soybeans)

 

Summary: Scattered showers, 0.12-0.75 inch (3-19 mm) and locally heavier,
occurred through La Pampa, west and south Buenos Aires yesterday. Satellite
pictures suggest that this activity as moved over northern Buenos Aires during
the night. Temperatures averaged near to below normal south, above normal
north. Highs yesterday were 88-99F (31-37C) in Cordoba and Santa Fe, 86-94F
(30-34C) in northern Buenos Aires, 77-84F (25-29C) in southern Buenos Aires and
La Pampa.

 

Forecast: Scattered light to moderate showers and thundershowers today and
Wednesday, favoring east and north Buenos Aires, Santa Fe and Cordoba. Mainly
dry or with only a few light showers during Thursday. Temperatures average near
to above normal today, cooler tomorrow, warmer in the west and continued cooler
east during Thursday.
Dry or with only a few light showers, favoring the west and especially the
southwest, during Friday and Saturday. Isolated to widely scattered showers are
possible during Sunday. Temperatures average near to above normal during this
period.

 

Joel Burgio

Frequent Rain Cerrado Mineiro, Sul de Minas Southward

 

Kansas City, January 26 (World Weather, Inc.) – Scattered showers and thunderstorms of varying intensity occurred in coffee production areas from Bahia through Minas Gerais to Parana during the weekend, but Espirito Santo, Zona de Mata and parts of Bahia were left unchanged from serious dryness. The greatest rainfall occurred in central Minas Gerais and in a part of Cerrado Mineiro southward into Sul de Minas. This week’s forecast perpetuates the greatest and most frequent rain from central Minas Gerais to Parana while northeastern areas stay in their drought.

 

BRAZIL
Scattered showers and thunderstorms spread across most of Minas Gerais Friday through Sunday. Rainfall was erratic with 1 to 9 millimeters in some northern Sul de Minas locations while Franca, Sao Paulo received 46 millimeters. The greatest rainfall occurred in central Minas Gerais – outside of most major coffee production areas – where 51 millimeters resulted. Rainfall in the majority of southern Sul de Minas ranged from 20 to 46 millimeters. Sao Paulo rainfall was not nearly as great and the same was true for Parana where 1 to 12 millimeters resulted. Espirito Santo, southeastern and a few central Bahia locations were left dry or mostly dry as may have been the case in a few Sao Paulo locations. Sul de Minas and Cerrado Mineiro were the areas that received the greatest rainfall.
High temperatures Friday through Sunday were in the upper 20s to lower 30s most often. However, middle and upper 30s continued in Zona de Mata, Rio de Janeiro and in northernmost Minas Gerais. An extreme high of 38 occurred in northeastern Minas Gerais. Lowest morning temperatures were mostly in the middle teens to lower 20s.

 

Rain is expected frequently from Cerrado Mineiro through Sul de Minas and Sao Paulo to Parana through Wednesday of this week before diminishing and receding southward Thursday and Friday. Daily rainfall of 10 to 30 millimeters is expected with local totals to 45. Coverage of rain will be close to 100% by the end of this week and some amounts will vary from 35 to 75 millimeters by Friday. Rainfall further north and east will not be nearly as great during the same few days. Rain totals in central and eastern Bahia, Espirito Santo and some Zona de Mata locations will vary from nothing to 15 millimeters with a rare amount as great as 30 millimeters possible in Zona de Mata. Net drying will continue along with unirrigated crop stress during the week in these drier biased areas.
The greatest precipitation will recede to the south late this week through Sunday with Parana and Sao Paulo getting most of the rain. A few showers will continue in southern Sul de Minas, but amounts will be down to less than 20 millimeters each day. Rainfall in Sao Paulo and Parana will vary from 15 to 35 millimeters most of those days with a few totals to more than 55. Dry or mostly dry conditions will occur further north.

 

Rainfall will drift a little north again next week. Monday through Thursday will present an improving opportunity for rain from Parana through Sul de Minas to Rio de Janeiro, Cerrado Mineiro and a few southern Zona de Mata locations. Daily rainfall of 13 to 25 millimeters and local totals to 45 will occur during that period of time.

 

Recent GFS computer model runs have insisted that rain will spread north into Bahia, northern Minas Gerais, Espirito Santo and northern Zona de Mata during the latter part of next week and into the following weekend. Confidence in the forecast is low and the situation will be closely monitored. Significant rain would be welcome in the far north after mostly dry conditions nearly all of this month, but World Weather, Inc. is not convinced that the rain event will occur as advertised.

 

Very little change in daily temperatures will occur through the next ten days. Highs in the upper 20s and lower to middle 30s will occur most often, but some upper 30s will be possible in rain-free areas infrequently. Lowest temperatures at night will be mostly in the middle teens to lower 20s.

Commodities Impact Weather: Southern Plains Precipitation

 

  OMAHA--Variable rains across Brazil, and additional precipitation chances for the Southern Plains
wheat areas, are the primary weather items for the commodity trade's attention Friday.
MILD TREND IN MIDWEST
  The DTN ag weather forecast calls for benign conditions in the Midwest through the next week.
Temperatures will generally range above normal in the western sector, and near to above normal in
the eastern areas.
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE CHANCE FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS
  In the Southern Plains, heavy snow this week will melt and cause some muddy conditions in Texas
Panhandle feedlots for a short time. There are no such issues in southwest Kansas. Meanwhile, recent
rainfall and additional precipitation in the forecast may favor wheat in Texas and parts of
Oklahoma. Conditions do remain dry from Kansas northward. This will become more important as we move
through late winter and into spring.
LIMITED RAIN CHANCE IN CENTRAL BRAZIL
  Central Brazil continues to see limited chances for rain going into late January. Above-normal
temperatures and very low rainfall during the next seven days will deplete soil moisture and
increase stress on pod-filling soybeans.
PERIODIC SHOWERS FOR SOUTHERN BRAZIL
  Across southern Brazil, generally favorable conditions for developing crops continue from southern
Parana southward. Limited rainfall and warmer to somewhat hotter weather will help deplete soil
moisture during the next five days. The region may turn more seasonal in temperatures with a few
shower threats after that.
WEEKEND SHOWERS FOR BRAZIL COFFEE AREAS
  A weak trough and surface cold front remains in southeastern Brazil. This has allowed for somewhat
cooler weather and a few thunderstorms. There is some chance for scattered showers in key coffee,
citrus and sugarcane areas through Sunday. After Sunday, the key coffee areas of Minas Gerais may
turn drier and hotter again while the important coffee, citrus and sugarcane areas of Sao Paulo may
continue to see a few showers and less hot weather.
VARIABLE CONDITIONS IN ARGENTINA
  Argentina's weather pattern remains mostly favorable for crops at this time. Hot weather during
the weekend period may increase the risk to crops somewhat. However, scattered showers and more
seasonal temperatures follow the weekend hot spell.
MINIMAL COLD THREAT IN RUSSIA
  In Russia, some colder conditions are in place near the Volga valley, but the pattern is not
threatening to wheat. The trend remains dry through the next week.
SEASONAL DRYNESS IN CENTRAL CHINA
  In central China, seasonally-dry conditions are expected to continue for the North China Plain
while the Yangtze River valley may see some shower activity at times. There are no significant
concerns for wheat at this time.
BENEFICIAL RAINS IN INDIA
  Light to moderate showers have occurred through key wheat areas of Pakistan and northwest to
north-central India during the past few days. Winter wheat will benefit from these showers as crop
development advances. Showers also fell through some of the winter rapeseed region during the past
two days.
DRYNESS CONCERN IN SOUTH AFRICA
  Above-normal temperatures and diminishing rainfall leave most growing areas of South Africa in
need of more moisture. The crop is in or approaching pollination over eastern areas. Some showers
are expected in southeast locations. It will remain on the dry side in the north and west. Longer
range charts suggest some chance for more widespread showers later next week.

Starbucks price set for 94 pct of 2015 coffee supply -CFO

NEW YORK, Jan 22 (Reuters) - Starbucks Corp has fixed the price it will pay for most of its coffee beans this year after going on a buying spree late last year when prices were under pressure, Chief Financial Officer Scott Maw said on Thursday.

The move reflects a strategy by major coffee buyers to protect against potential spikes in arabica coffee prices amid concerns over prolonged dry weather in top grower Brazil and the impact of leaf disease in Central America.

Maw said Starbucks has now fixed prices on 94 percent of its coffee needs for 2015 after buying a "significant" amount of coffee in the last six weeks of 2014. The company said in October it had covered two-thirds of its bean needs for 2015.

The purchases came as the price for front-month arabica coffee on ICE Futures U.S. fell as low as $1.64 a lb on Dec. 31 from more than $1.90 a lb in late November.

Maw said that, over the last year, Starbucks has tended not to buy coffee when the price exceeded $1.90 a lb.

He has not seen any indication that bean supplies have been disrupted, but opportunity buying under $1.90 might indicate the world's roasters are preparing for a sustained period of high prices.

That level is well off the 2-1/2-year highs above $2.20 seen in October last year, but is still well above historic averages.

"We don't see or hear anything that indicates a slowdown in supply," Maw said. "Everything indicates that the coffee market is still healthy in origin."

 ICE Coffee Falls to Test Important Support -- Technical Analysis

Kira Brecht

 

  ICE March coffee futures are pressing lower again on Thursday, as the recent selling spree
continues. The contract is approaching a test of major support from the Jan. 5 low at $1.6010. The
trend outlook is bearish, but coffee has fallen sharply over the past four sessions, which leaves
the market vulnerable to a consolidation or correction.
ICE March coffee recently traded down 65 points t $1.6060 a pound.
  Action in recent months has seen the bears dominate in the coffee market. ICE March coffee futures
fell from a peak at $2.2910 in mid October to the Jan. 5 low at $1.6010. A minor counter-trend rally
move developed off the early January low, which stalled out at $1.8490, the Jan. 12 daily high. That
ceiling is now an important swing high resistance zone for coffee.
  The bears swooped in decisively on Jan. 15 and four days of heavy selling pressure ensued. Now,
the coffee market has dropped back toward the early January low at $1.6010 and for now is holding
just above that support zone.
  The moving average outlook is bearish for ICE March coffee, as the contract is trading below all
significant moving averages from the 20-day to the 200-day. That position is generally viewed as a
bearish signal by the trend following crowd.
  A look at the monthly continuation chart for ICE coffee reveals that the market is closing in on a
test of important support at $1.5780, the July 2014 monthly continuation low. That marks the lower
border of a large choppy range that confined coffee for much of 2014. That is a significant support
floor and if it were to give way would be strong bearish implications.
  Shifting back to the daily March chart, daily momentum studies are approaching or have already
reached oversold territory, which could open the door for a short-term consolidation period around
the daily chart support at $1.6010. But, if that floor gives way, coffee will be vulnerable to a
test of the $1.5780 zone seen on the monthly continuation chart.
  The trend is bearish. But, the market has fallen swiftly in recent days and is vulnerable to a
consolidation period. On the monthly continuation chart, coffee sees major support at the $1.5780
area. If the bears sustained a strong downside breakout below that zone in the days ahead it would
open the door to a potentially significant slide in coffee prices. A measured move target would
project the potential for significant multi-day to multi-week declines.

Early Ag Weather Watch - Jan 22

EARLY LOOK WEATHER REPORT

 

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:
HIGH WED...85 AT WEST KENDALL FL
LOW WED...18 BELOW ZERO AT GRAND MARAIS MI
24 HOUR RAINFALL AT 7PM: KEY WEST FL 0.53  INCHES

 

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

 

The US and European models are in fair to good agreement during next Tuesday
through Thursday, fair agreement next Friday and Saturday. I am using a
compromise between the models as it concerns the end of this period. The
European model is somewhat deeper with the trough over the Midwest region at
the end of the outlook period and therefore is colder than the US model would
suggest. The US model is somewhat deeper and further north and east with a
southern branch trough over the southwest US at the end of this period. This
implies a chance of rain for the southern portion of the plains wheat belt at
day ten.
The mean maps covering the 8-10 day period continue to show a mean ridge
over western North America with above normal heights centered over the Pacific
Northwest or in southwest Canada. The southern branch trough is located over or
near southern California, Arizona and northwest Mexico. The polar trough is
centered over north and east Hudson Bay Canada. The mean trough extends south
towards southeast Canada and the eastern US at that time. The strong Atlantic
ridge that was mentioned yesterday is still on the maps today but is located
east of where it was depicted yesterday. This is a dry pattern for most key
growing areas within the US region , except possibly for the New Mexico, Texas
and Oklahoma area... if the US model is correct towards day ten. This is a dry
pattern for the Canadian Prairies. This remains a warm pattern outside of the
east coast states but there is a hint on today's models that cold weather may
return to the north and east Midwest regions late in the period.

 

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

 

MATO GROSSO, BRAZIL: Above normal temperatures and limited rainfall during the
next few days will deplete soil moisture and increase stress on pod filling
soybeans. There is some chance for a little more shower activity and less hot
weather after that.

 

SAO PAULO/MINAS GERAIS, BRAZIL: Hot temperatures and less than normal rainfall
continues to impact coffee and citrus trees and developing sugarcane. A few
thundershowers during the past 24 hours helped some but coverage was low.
Scattered showers will be in the area during the next 2-4 days. This should
help ease stress to crops. Longer range charts are somewhat drier and hotter
again.

 

SOUTH BRAZIL (CORN, SOYBEANS): Generally favorable conditions for developing
crops from southern Parana southward at this time. However, the forecast does
not show much shower activity for the region during the next 7 days and it
should turn somewhat hotter.

 

ARGENTINA (CORN,SOYBEANS,WHEAT): Mostly favorable conditions for crops at this
time. A trend towards somewhat hotter and drier weather in corn and soybean
areas will bear watching.

 

EAST MIDWEST/DELTA (WHEAT): No significant cold or precipitation for the soft
red wheat areas during the next 7 days, except possibly some precipitation in
the Delta.

 

WEST MIDWEST (TRANSPORTATION): No storms during the next 7 days. Temperatures
mostly above normal levels.

 

CENTRAL/SOUTH PLAINS: Snow and wind yesterday and last night will increase
stress on livestock in areas from New Mexico to west Texas. It appears this was
mostly south of the key feed lots in southwest Kansas. Precipitation associated
with this snow and also the rain in north-central Texas will favor winter wheat
in the region. Dryness continues of some concern wheat elsewhere in the region.

 

SOUTH AFRICA (MAIZE/SUGARCANE): Above normal temperatures and diminishing
rainfall leave most growing areas of South Africa in need of more moisture. The
crop is in or approaching pollination over eastern areas. Some showers are
expected in southeast locations. It will remain on the dry side in the north
and west.

 

UKRAINE/WEST AND SOUTH RUSSIA: Dry conditions or just a little light
precipitation during the next 5 days. Temperatures near to above normal. No
concerns for wheat at this time.

 

CENTRAL CHINA (WINTER WHEAT): Seasonally dry weather is expected to continue
for the North China Plain while the Yangtze river valley may see some shower
activity at times. No significant concerns at this time.

 

INDIA (WINTER WHEAT): A trough moving over Pakistan and northwest India will
lead to showers in key winter wheat and possibly into winter rapeseed areas as
well during the next 1-3 days. Wheat and rapeseed will benefit from this shower
activity.

 

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

 

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

 

Summary...

 

WEST: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged above to well
above normal yesterday.

 

EAST: A little light precipitation through northern and east-central areas
during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged above to well above normal.

 

Forecast...

 

WEST: Mostly dry today through the daytime hours of Saturday. Chance for a
little light precipitation, favoring north and east areas, during Saturday
night. Temperatures average above to well above normal during this period.
Dry or with only a little light precipitation, favoring the east,  during
Sunday. Mostly dry Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures average above to well above
normal.

 

EAST: Dry or with only a little light precipitation near the Ohio river or in
northern most areas today through Saturday. Temperatures average above normal
during this period.
Light snow or rain showers during Sunday. Mostly dry Monday and Tuesday.
Temperatures average above normal Sunday, cooler Monday and Tuesday...
especially through eastern areas.

 

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to above normal
during this period. Precipitation near to below normal.

 

Central/Southern Plains (Winter Wheat, Corn, Soybean, Sorghum)

 

Summary: Snow and wind overnight for the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles and
northeast New Mexico. Snow totals at this time are uncertain but based on
precipitation recorded and temperatures it will likely come in at 4-8 inches
and may come in heavier. Rainfall through north-central Texas looks to average
0.25-1.00 inch early this morning. Snow and rain through southwest Oklahoma.

 

Drier elsewhere in the region. Temperatures averaged above normal yesterday,
except in areas of snow where it was somewhat cooler.

 

Forecast: Rain or showers and thunderstorms through eastern Texas today. Light
snow and rain lingers over west Texas and southwest Oklahoma mainly this
morning. Drier elsewhere in the region today. Mostly dry tomorrow and Saturday.
Temperatures average near to below normal southwest and near to above normal
elsewhere in the region today and Friday, above to well above normal Saturday.
Mostly dry Sunday through Tuesday. Temperatures average well above normal
during this period.

 

6-10 Day Outlook...Temperatures to average above normal, possibly well above
normal in the west. Precipitation below normal. However, there is a slight
chance for heavier precipitation to occur in the southern areas.

 

Brazil (Wheat, Corn, Soybeans)

 

Summary:
Rio Grande do Sul and Parana: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours.
Temperatures averaged above normal in northern Parana, below normal elsewhere
in the region.

 

Mato Grosso: Mostly dry or with only isolated showers during the past 24
hours. Temperatures averaged mostly near normal.

 

Forecast:
Rio Grande do Sul and Parana: Mostly dry today through Saturday.
Temperatures average below to near normal today, near to above normal Friday,
above normal Saturday.
Dry or with only a few light afternoon thundershowers in Parana Sunday
through Tuesday. Temperatures average mostly above normal during this period.

 

Mato Grosso: Mostly dry south, dry or with only a few light afternoon
thundershowers north, today through Saturday. Temperatures average near to
above normal during this period.
Chance for scattered to widely scattered showers and thundershowers Sunday
through Tuesday. Rainfall potential appears to be light to locally moderate but
locally heavier can not be ruled out. Temperatures average near to above normal
during this period.

 

Central Argentina (Wheat, Corn, Soybeans)

 

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures averaged near to above normal through the
southwest, below normal elsewhere in the region.

 

Forecast: Dry or with only a few showers and thundershowers through southwest
locations today through Saturday. Temperatures turn warmer today, hotter
tomorrow and Saturday. Highs move into the 90s F (32-37C) during this period,
especially through western areas. Highs may reach 100F (38C) or a little hotter
in Cordoba and La Pampa.
Episodes of scattered to widely scattered thundershowers will mainly occur in
La Pampa and southern Buenos Aires Sunday through Tuesday. However a few light
showers may reach to northern Buenos Aires and southern Santa Fe at times.
Temperatures average near to above normal south, above normal central and
north. Highs likely average 91-102F (33-39C) Sunday, 88-99F (31-37C) Monday and
Tuesday.

 

Joel Burgio

Raw Sugar Extends Gains on Brazilian Gasoline Tax HikeAlexandra Wexler

 

  NEW YORK--Raw-sugar futures extended their gains on Wednesday, as traders priced in expectations
for higher demand after the government in top grower Brazil raised taxes on gasoline.
  The move, announced Monday, will likely mean higher prices at the pump for Brazilian drivers.
"This should increase demand for ethanol, which can be used as a substitute for gasoline,"
Commerzbank said in a note.
  Higher demand for ethanol could mean processors use more of their cane to make the biofuel,
thereby limiting sugar production and boosting prices for the sweetener, analysts said.
Brazil will raise taxes on gasoline and diesel on Feb. 1.
  Raw sugar for March delivery on the ICE Futures U.S. exchange was recently up 0.3% at 15.88 cents
a pound, after jumping 3.3% on Tuesday.
  "At this point, most fundamental traders continue to expect surplus conditions past (the first
quarter)," said James Cassidy, senior director of the sugar group at Societe Generale in New York.
The International Sugar Organization predicts global production of the sweetener is likely to
outpace demand for the fifth consecutive year in the season ending Sept. 30, 2015.
  The wild card is whether Brazil's crop will get enough rain. "Precipitation levels for January
thus far that are running at 50% of historical averages through much of the center-south of Brazil,"
Mr. Cassidy said. The center-south region grows about 90% of the country's cane.
  Arabica-coffee futures also edged higher Wednesday on worries about whether Brazil would get
enough rain for proper development of the crop. Brazil is the world's top grower and exporter of
coffee.
  Arabica coffee for delivery in March on ICE was recently up 0.6% at $1.6535 a pound, after
tumbling 3.9% during the previous session.
  Cotton for March delivery was recently 0.1% higher at 57.85 cents a pound, while March-delivery
cocoa eased 0.8% to $2,901 a ton. Orange juice for March delivery was 0.6% lower at $1.4565 a pound.

Parana to Sul de Minas Rainfall Greatest Next Week

Kansas City, January 21 (World Weather, Inc.) – Showers and thunderstorms will evolve slowly over the next few days from Parana to Sul de Minas with some showers of mostly insignificance reaching further north, as well. The greatest rainfall is anticipated for the week next week when areas from southern Sul de Minas into Parana will receive some moderate amounts of rain benefiting coffee greatly. Rain to the north will continue light, but periodic enough to induce some improvement for Rio de Janeiro, a part of Zona de Mata and Cerrado Mineiro. These latter areas will still need greater rainfall to seriously change soil and crop conditions. Bahia and Espirito Santo will remain driest, but get some rain next week.
BRAZIL
Mostly dry weather prevailed in coffee areas again Tuesday. Some areas in Minas Gerais, Bahia, Espirito Santo and Rio de Janeiro have not received rain at all this month and other areas have reported less than 25% of normal rainfall. That kind of dryness in mid-summer is very rare and detrimental to coffee production. Change must occur immediately to prevent another serious decline in production like that of last summer. Relief is expected soon – more so in the south than the north, but some change is forthcoming.

Brazil Coffee Weather Greater Shower Activity, But No General Soaking Rain  

 By Drew Lerner

Kansas City, January 20 (World Weather, Inc.) – Dry and warm conditions prevailed in Brazil coffee areas over the past few days. Northern production areas from Bahia into Zona de Mata will likely continue in a net drying pattern for at least another week, despite a few showers. Areas to the south will experience the development of erratically distributed showers and thunderstorms with highly varying amounts of rainfall. Most areas will not see a tremendous improvement in crop or soil conditions, but some change is expected.
BRAZIL

Most Brazil coffee areas were left dry during the Friday through Monday morning period. A few showers occurred randomly, but none of them were great enough rain producers for a boost in soil moisture. All coffee areas dried out during the period. Temperatures were warm with most highs in the upper 20s and 30s Celsius and lows in the upper teens and lower 20s.
Showers and thunderstorms will be increasing this week, but the precipitation that falls from Sul de Minas northward to Bahia and Espirito Santo will be a general disappointment through Saturday. The presence of showers will help raise humidity and offer slower rates of declining crop and soil conditions, but until a general soaking of rain falls there will not be any dramatic changes.

The showers that occur Tuesday through Saturday will produce 1 to 15 millimeters of rain most often each day, but an occasional amount to 30 millimeters will be possible. Almost all of the greatest rain will fall in Parana and Sap Paulo, but a few locations in Sul de Minas may getsome greater rain. The greater rainfall in Sul de Minas will be more a fluke in the prevailing pattern rather than a trend changing occurrence. With that said, it will not be nearly as dry in the absolute sense as it has been, but a bigger boost in rainfall will be needed to make a more serious change in conditions.

Rain that falls in northern Rio de Janeiro, Zona de Mata, Espirito Santo, northern Minas Gerais and Bahia will be much less frequent and less significant than that to the south. Net drying is likely in all five of these regions, although some rain may occur infrequently and lightly.

The best opportunity for more significant rain will occur next week, but much caution is advised. The change is subtle and will likely still leave a need for greater rain. However, with that said, there will be a daily scattering of showers and thunderstorms from Parana through Sul de Minas, Zona de Mata and Cerrado northward to northern Minas Gerais and a few central Bahia locations. Rain totals on a daily basis will vary from 1 to 15 millimeters in the north with low coverage. Daily rainfall in Sul de Minas, Cerrado and Rio de Janeiro southward to Parana will vary from 8 to 20 millimeters with a few areas to receive more than 32.

Temperatures will change very little over the next two weeks. Highs most days will be in the upper 20s and lower to middle 30s. A few upper 30s will be possible infrequently. Lowest morning temperatures will be in the upper teens and lower to a few middle 20s.

Net Drying Through Tuesday; Best Rain Potential Delayed

 

Kansas City, January 16 (World Weather, Inc.) – No rain fell in the majority of coffee country Thursday and it will continue very restricted through Tuesday of next week. Showers will increase during mid- to late-week next week, but a general soaking is not very likely in the most important coffee areas prior to January 24 and it is debatable how far north the greater precipitation potentials will extend. Bahia, northern and eastern Minas Gerais, Espirito Santo and Zona de Mata are least likely to see “significant” rain for at least a week and possibly longer. The Cerrado Mineiro coffee areas are becoming much drier, as well and they will not have a very good chance for improved weather until January 24-28.

 

BRAZIL
Dry weather occurred in most coffee production areas in Brazil Thursday. High temperatures were mostly in the upper 20s Celsius in southeastern Bahia and in a small pocket of central Minas Gerais while readings in the 30s were common elsewhere. The highest temperatures varied from 35 to 38 in Zona de Mata, Rio de Janeiro and in random locations in northeastern Minas Gerais, central Bahia and from northern Parana to northern Sao Paulo.

 

Today’s forecast has not changed greatly from that of previous days this week, although the GFS computer forecast model has reduced rain that it advertised Thursday for the last days of January. The model was too wet Thursday at mid-day and again last evening and this morning’s forecast may be a little too dry, but the model is probably doing a better job in limiting the amount of relief that occurs in coffee areas. The World Weather, Inc. Trend Model continues to

 

suggest that only a restricted amount of relief will occur and that at least a flavor of the recent drier biased pattern will linger into early February. That does not mean it will not rain, but it does suggest that an erratic rainfall pattern will occur that will offer limited relief.

 

Zona de Mata coffee remains the most seriously stressed out of all production areas, but unirrigated areas in Espirito Santo, northern and west-central Minas Gerais and Bahia are not far behind. A general bolstering of soil moisture is needed, but not very likely in the current pattern and changes are going to be slight over the next ten days.

 

Rainfall in Sul de Minas and northeastern Sao Paulo will be most significant in the second half of next week and into the following weekend. Until then, any showers that occur will be brief and light with little potential to seriously change the recent drying tendency.

 

Any rain that falls through Tuesday of next week is expected to be mostly insignificant varying from 1 to 15 millimeters with an infrequent greater amount. Parana and southern Sao Paulo will likely be wettest. Crop areas north of Sul de Minas will be left dry or mostly dry.

 

Showers and thunderstorms will increase Wednesday through Friday, January 23, but no general soaking of rain is predicted. Daily rain totals of 5 to 20 millimeters are expected with a few totals as great as 30 in Sao Paulo, Parana and possibly far southern Sul de Minas. Daily rain totals further north will mostly range from 1 to 10 and local totals to 15 millimeters. Northern Sul de Minas will be much drier than areas near the Sao Paulo border and Zona de Mata may stay completely dry.

 

The greatest and most significant rainfall may evolve in the January 24-28 period. Confidence has to be lower during that period of time because the advertised change is so far out in time leaving plenty of opportunity for changes in the outlook. However, a trough of low pressure aloft extending from southern Brazil to Bolivia will begin to redirect Amazon River Basin moisture more into center west and center south Brazil during this period of time. The trough is very weak and may end up too weak to induce a generalized rain, but that is the earliest timeframe that more significant rain may impact Parana, Sao Paulo and Sul de Minas. The trough will have to hold together while drifting northeast to offer any serious increase in rainfall across Zona de Mata or the Cerrado Mineiro region. Higher pressure may reassert itself over northeastern Brazil in the last days of January and if that takes place the trough of low pressure will stall out in southern Brazil and the chances of greater rain in key coffee areas will be forced lower again. The situation will have to be closely monitored.

 

Temperatures are unlikely to change much over the next ten days. Daily highs will be in the 30s Celsius most often with a few upper 20s continuing in southeastern Bahia and a few of the traditionally cooler locations in central Minas Gerais. Extreme highs of 36 to 40 will continue in most of the warmer biased areas noted above in Thursday’s temperature regime. Lowest temperatures at night will be mostly in the upper teens and lower to middle 20s.