Early Ag Weather Watch - Jan 27

 

EARLY LOOK WEATHER REPORT

 

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:
HIGH MON...82 AT ANAHEIM CA
LOW  MON...25 BELOW ZERO AT SARANAC LAKE NY
24 HOUR RAINFALL AT 7PM: NEW YORK CITY NY 0.41 INCH

 

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

 

The US and European models are in fair to good agreement during the first
2-3 days of the outlook period, fair to poor agreement after that. I am using a
little more of today's European model as it concerns the end of the 6 to 10 day
period.
Today's US model shows a short wave trough moving across the northern
Rockies during day 8. This trough drops southward over the plains before moving
eastward across the Midwest at the end of this period. This would suggest a
better chance for more widespread precipitation for the Midwest during the
outlook period. The European model and it's ensemble run do not see this
trough. This model suggest less chance for precipitation in the Midwest. The
European model also features a slight westward shift to the mean trough in
Canada which would imply a colder trend for the Midwest and possibly even the
eastern plains region.
There is not much of a southern branch during the 6-10 day period which
suggests a drier trend. However, prior to the 6-10 day period a significant
trough moves across the southern plains before turning northeast over the Delta
and Midwest regions. This system may mean beneficial precipitation for the
plains wheat belt, especially over Texas and Oklahoma and possibly in east and
south Kansas and south Colorado as well.

 

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

 

NORTHEAST US: A Blizzard continues today through the northeast U.S. region.
Travel will likely remain at a standstill today with some improvement possible
tomorrow. Widespread power outages are possible, especially through southeast
New England.

 

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): An increase in shower activity has recently helped ease
concerns for corn and soybean areas of Parana, MGDS and Sao Paulo. A few
showers also for Mato Grosso during this period but not as much., Favorable
conditions for crop areas from southern Parana through RGDS.

 

SAO PAULO/MINAS GERAIS, BRAZIL: Increasing shower and thundershower activity
will help improve conditions for key coffee,  citrus and sugarcane areas of Sao
Paulo. Showers have also helped ease stress to coffee trees in Minas Gerais,
however this area is still seeing below normal rainfall with a tendency for
above normal temperatures. This likely will impact production for coffee in the
areas.

 

ARGENTINA (CORN,SOYBEANS): Mostly favorable conditions for crops at this time.
Hot temperatures Sunday and Monday but then cooler conditions again.

 

EAST MIDWEST/DELTA (WHEAT): While it does turn colder at times it does not look
cold enough to impact wheat. No significant precipitation during the 5 day
period, some increase in precipitation during the 5-7 day period.

 

WEST MIDWEST (TRANSPORTATION): No storms during the next 5 days. We may need to
keep an eye on a system for this Sunday but the early call suggests a track
well south of Iowa.

 

CENTRAL/SOUTH PLAINS (WHEAT/LIVESTOCK): No significant cold weather to impact
wheat or livestock during this week. A weak to moderate southern branch trough
may bring beneficial moisture to southern wheat areas late in the week or
during the weekend. It is too soon to tell whether this will impact the key
feed lots of the northern Texas Panhandle and southwest Kansas.

 

SOUTH AFRICA (MAIZE/SUGARCANE): A slow moving upper level trough is expected to
bring widespread shower and thundershower activity to the region within the
next 1 to 3 days. This will favor reproductive to filling maize and sugarcane,
especially after recent above normal temperatures.

 

UKRAINE/WEST AND SOUTH RUSSIA: The Volga valley has recently turned cold but
the wheat in this area is protected by an adequate snow cover. No significant
cold weather for Ukraine, west or south Russia. Some increase in precipitation
may occur later this week or this weekend. This first improves snow cover to
protect wheat and later when it melts will help improve soil moisture.

 

INDIA (WINTER WHEAT): Light to moderate showers have occurred through key wheat
areas of Pakistan and northwest to north-central India during the past week.
Winter wheat will benefit from these showers as crop development advances.
Showers also fell through some of the winter rapeseed region during the past
couple of days.

 

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

 

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

 

Summary...

 

WEST: Dry or with only a little very light precipitation through eastern most
areas during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged above to well above
normal.

 

EAST: A little light precipitation occurred through western areas and in
extreme east locations during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged near to
above normal west, below normal east.

 

Forecast...

 

WEST: Mostly dry today and early Wednesday. Chance for a little light
precipitation, favoring northeast areas, Wednesday night. Drier again during
Thursday. Temperatures average above to well above normal today and Wednesday,
cooler Thursday but still likely above normal.
Mostly dry Friday. Chance for light precipitation, favoring southern and
eastern areas, during Saturday. Drier again Sunday. Temperatures continue a
colder trend during this period.

 

EAST: Mostly dry today and during the daytime hours of Wednesday. Chance for
light precipitation, favoring north and east areas, during Wednesday night and
early Thursday. Temperatures average near to above normal west and below normal
east today and Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday.
Mostly dry Friday and early Saturday. Light to moderate precipitation,
heaviest south and east areas, later Saturday or during Saturday night and
Sunday. Temperatures average near to below normal during this period.

 

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to below during
this period. Precipitation near to below normal through western and northeast
areas, near to above normal through southeast locations.

 

Central/Southern Plains (Winter Wheat, Corn, Soybean, Sorghum)

 

Summary: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged well above
normal with highs yesterday averaging 63 to 78F, warmest in Oklahoma and
north-central Texas.

 

Forecast: Mostly dry today through Thursday. Temperatures average well above
normal today and Wednesday, cooler Thursday but still significantly above
normal. Highs may reach to 80F today in western and southern areas and again
tomorrow in southern locations.
Light to moderate precipitation through the north Texas area and Oklahoma
during Friday into Saturday. Chance for mostly light precipitation elsewhere in
the region during this time. This activity may favor south Colorado, south and
east Kansas. Drier again during Sunday. Temperatures average near to below
normal during this period.

 

6-10 Day Outlook...Temperatures are expected to vary somewhat during this
period. Precipitation will likely average near to below normal.

 

Brazil (Wheat, Corn, Soybeans)

 

Summary:
Rio Grande do Sul and Parana: A few thundershowers were reported yesterday in
northern Parana. Dry or with only isolated light showers elsewhere in the
region. Temperatures averaged near to above normal south, near to below normal
north.

 

Mato Grosso: Scattered thundershowers were reported in southern MGDS during
the past 24 hours. A few light showers with locally heavier elsewhere in the
region during this time. Temperatures averaged near to below normal.

 

Forecast:
Rio Grande do Sul and Parana: Chance for scattered showers and thundershowers
through eastern and northern Parana today or during tonight. Scattered showers
and thundershowers develop in RGDS and spread to Parana during Wednesday and
Thursday. Temperatures average near to above normal south and near to below
normal north today, near to below normal tomorrow and Thursday.
Scattered showers may linger over east and north Parana Friday, drier
elsewhere in the region Friday. Mostly dry during the weekend. Temperatures
average near to below normal during this period.

 

Mato Grosso: Scattered to widely scattered showers and thundershowers today.
Scattered showers and thundershowers may favor MGDS and southern Mato Grosso
tomorrow and MGDS during Thursday. Temperatures average near to below normal
during this period.
Mostly dry or with only a few light showers Friday through Sunday in Mato
Grosso. Episodes of scattered to widely scattered showers and thundershowers in
MGDS during this time. Temperatures average near to above normal, warmest
through northern areas.

 

Central Argentina (Wheat, Corn, Soybeans)

 

Summary: Scattered showers, 0.12-0.75 inch (3-19 mm) and locally heavier,
occurred through La Pampa, west and south Buenos Aires yesterday. Satellite
pictures suggest that this activity as moved over northern Buenos Aires during
the night. Temperatures averaged near to below normal south, above normal
north. Highs yesterday were 88-99F (31-37C) in Cordoba and Santa Fe, 86-94F
(30-34C) in northern Buenos Aires, 77-84F (25-29C) in southern Buenos Aires and
La Pampa.

 

Forecast: Scattered light to moderate showers and thundershowers today and
Wednesday, favoring east and north Buenos Aires, Santa Fe and Cordoba. Mainly
dry or with only a few light showers during Thursday. Temperatures average near
to above normal today, cooler tomorrow, warmer in the west and continued cooler
east during Thursday.
Dry or with only a few light showers, favoring the west and especially the
southwest, during Friday and Saturday. Isolated to widely scattered showers are
possible during Sunday. Temperatures average near to above normal during this
period.

 

Joel Burgio