Early Ag Weather Watch - Mar 7

EARLY LOOK WEATHER REPORT

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...90 AT EL CENTRO NAS CA AND THERMAL CA AND INDIO CA AND OCOTILLO

WELLS CA

LOW  THU...28 BELOW ZERO AT SARANAC LAKE NY

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 06:00 PM CT...TALLAHASSEE FL 1.51 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

The US and European models are in fair to good agreement for only about 3 or

4 days, fair agreement and sometimes poor agreement during days 5 through 10. I

am using a little more of today's European model as it concerns days 5 through

7 and then a blend of the models during days 8-10.

The European model shows a stronger low developing over the southeast

plains, tracking through the lower Miss and Ohio river valleys and then over or

just south of New England during the period Tuesday through Thursday of next

week. This suggests a chance for significant precipitation for the east and

south Midwest, the Delta and possibly the southeast plains. The US model shows

a much weaker low forming over the southern plains before moving rapidly

through the lower Miss, well south of the Ohio river and well south of New

England. I favor the European model a little more than the US model since the

US model has a habit of moving systems too fast, at times.

The mean map for the 8-10 day period from today's US model shows a deep

trough over eastern Canada and the northeast US with a moderate ridge moving

across the northern Rockies and into the northwest plains. This suggests cold

east and warm west with not much precipitation. The European model mean map

shows a weaker eastern Canada trough with the ridge over the west coast and in

the eastern Pacific, northern California and Oregon westward. This model also

shows a moderate southern branch trough over the southern plains region. The US

model shows this trough as well but is weaker and further to the southwest with

it. I favor a blend of the models during the 8-10 day period. This means a

trough over eastern North America not as strong as the US model and not as weak

as the European model. A ridge somewhere between the two positions on the

models and a southern branch trough somewhere between the models as well.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

ARGENTINA: Mostly favorable conditions for filling and maturing corn and

soybeans at this time. Scattered thundershower activity later this weekend

should maintain favorable soil moisture for crops but does not linger enough to

cause concerns over a return to wet conditions.

BRAZIL SOYBEANS/CORN: Soil moisture for second crop corn, late filling soybeans

and late filling early corn is adequate to surplus at this time. A drier trend

is possible for the next 3 days or so. This should help improve conditions for

the delayed early harvests, at least for a time. Showers redevelop through

Parana and MGDS early next week.

BRAZIL COFFEE, CITRUS, SUGARCANE AREAS: There appears to be good chance for

much needed rainfall to occur in through Minas Gerais coffee areas at the end

of this week and early in the weekend. This may help to stabilize crop

conditions somewhat but more rain will be needed to end the drought. Longer

range maps suggest a return to somewhat hotter and drier weather after the

weekend. Citrus, coffee and sugarcane areas will also receive needed rain but

probably not as much as will Minas Gerais.

CENTRAL/SOUTH PLAINS: Little rainfall is expected through the dry western

growing areas during the next 10 days. Concerns for this portion of the crop

will increase as we move further into the spring if rainfall does not improve.

There are shower threats for eastern growing areas during this period,

especially if you believe today's European model. If realized this will help

maintain more favorable conditions for wheat in these locations.

MIDWEST: A break in the extreme cold pattern is coming for early next week.

This should help ease usage of natural gas for heating and reduce the threat to

the soft red winter wheat crop. A return to cold weather is expected later next

week. There is also at least some risk for heavier snow, ice or rain through

southern and eastern areas during the middle of next week, ahead of the next

cold outbreak. This could mean delays to transportation and travel for a time.

It does not look to impact Iowa however.

SOUTH AFRICA: Heavy thunderstorms since the weekend will maintain adequate to

surplus moisture for maize and sugarcane crops. This likely means local

flooding of fields and is unfavorable for filling crops and early maturing

crops.

CHINA: Moderate to locally heavy snow and rain has occurred through central and

southern winter wheat areas of eastern China and through most winter rapeseed

areas during February. This will help to replenish soil moisture and it will

favor crops when they break dormancy in the spring. Snow to the north was not

as heavy but still fairly significant for this time of the year.

NORTH INDIA: Showers and thundershowers occurred through most of the winter

wheat belt during the second half of February. This favors wheat that is

usually flowering during the month. It should mean a good wheat crop for India.

The pattern may also favor the winter rapeseeds areas as well.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES/FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

WEST: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged below to well

below normal.

EAST: Mostly dry. Temperatures averaged below to well below normal.

Forecast....

WEST: Dry or with only a few light snow showers today or tonight. Dry during

the weekend period. Temperatures average near to above normal west and below

normal east today, below normal tomorrow and early Sunday, above normal west

and near to below normal east later Sunday.

Mostly dry during Monday. Chance for light to locally moderate

precipitation, favoring southern areas, during Tuesday or Tuesday night. Drier

again during Wednesday. Temperatures average above normal Monday, near to above

normal Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday.

EAST: Dry today. A little light precipitation may occur through northwest areas

tonight. Chance for a little light precipitation during Saturday. Mostly dry

Sunday. Temperatures average near to above normal southwest and below normal

elsewhere in the region today, near to below normal tomorrow and Sunday.

Mostly dry during Monday. Light to locally moderate precipitation is

expected during Tuesday into Wednesday, favoring southern and eastern areas.

Temperatures average above normal Monday and Tuesday, near to below normal

Wednesday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to below normal.

Precipitation should average near to below normal west, near to above normal

east.

Central/Southern Plains (Winter Wheat)

Summary: Dry or with only a few light showers in southern areas during the past

24 hours. Temperatures averaged above normal west, below normal east. The highs

Thursday ranged from 64 to 75F in the west, 44 to 55F in the east and central

areas.

Forecast: Dry today. Chance for a little light precipitation from southern

Colorado and southern Kansas into Texas during tonight or during tomorrow.

Drier again during Sunday. Temperatures average above normal south and below

normal north today, below normal tomorrow, above or well above normal west and

northeast and below normal southeast during Sunday.

Mostly dry Monday. Chance for light to moderate precipitation through the

east and a little light precipitation through the west during Tuesday. Drier

again Wednesday. Temperatures average above or well above normal Monday but it

should turn cooler Tuesday and Wednesday.

6-10 Day Outlook...Temperatures are expected to average near to below normal

during this period. Precipitation averages near to below normal, although there

is a slight chance for near to above normal rains through eastern areas.

Brazil (Corn, Soybeans, Citrus, Coffee, Sugarcane)

Summary...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures

averaged near to below normal yesterday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and Goias: Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms were

reported in Mato Grosso and in Goias during the past 24 hours. Mainly dry in

MGDS during this time. Temperatures averaged mostly near normal yesterday.

Sao Paulo/Minas Gerais: Scattered to widely scattered thundershowers, some

heavy, were reported in northern Sao Paulo and southwest Minas Gerais during

the past 24 hours. The remainder of Minas Gerais had only a few light showers

with isolated heavier. The remainder of Sao Paulo was drier. Temperatures

averaged near to above normal, except it was somewhat cooler in northeast Sao

Paulo and southwest Minas Gerais.

Forecast...

Rio Grande do Sul, Parana, MGDS: A few light showers may occur late today or

during tonight, mostly in Parana and possibly in MGDS. Drier during Saturday.

Dry Sunday. Temperatures average near to below normal today and Saturday, near

to above normal during Sunday.

Dry or with only a few light showers, favoring RGDS, during Monday. Chance

for scattered light to locally moderate showers in Parana and MGDS during

Tuesday or Wednesday. Mainly dry in RGDS during this time. Temperatures average

near to above normal during this period.

Sao Paulo/Minas Gerais: Scattered moderate to heavy showers and thundershowers

today. Showers and thunderstorms linger over Minas Gerais during Saturday,

somewhat drier through Sao Paulo during Saturday. Dry or with only a few light

showers through north and east areas Sunday. Rainfall potential during this

period appears to be 0.75 to 2.50 inches (20-65 mm) and locally heavier,

heaviest over the Minas Gerais crop areas. Temperatures turn cooler today and

Saturday, warmer again during Sunday.

Mostly dry or with only a few light showers during Monday through Wednesday.

Temperatures average near to above normal Monday, above normal Tuesday and

Wednesday.

Argentina (Corn, Soybean, Wheat)

Summary...Cordoba, Sante Fe, Buenos Aires, La Pampa.

Scattered light showers with locally heavier occurred in north and west

Cordoba during the past 24 hours. Little elsewhere in the region. Temperatures

averaged near to below normal yesterday.

Forecast...

Mostly dry today. Scattered light to locally moderate showers develop

through southwest areas during Saturday or Saturday night. Light to moderate

showers and thundershowers through northern and eastern areas during Sunday.

Temperatures turn somewhat warmer today and Saturday, cooler again during

Sunday.

Mostly dry Monday and Tuesday. Chance for a few showers and thundershowers

in the west, fair east, during Wednesday. Temperatures average near to below

normal Monday and Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday.

Joel Burgio