Early Ag Weather Watch - Mar 6

EARLY LOOK WEATHER REPORT

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...88 AT YUMA AZ AND THERMAL CA

LOW  WED...31 BELOW ZERO AT BABBITT MN

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 06:00 PM CT...SEATTLE WA 1.40 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

The US and European models are in fair to good agreement during the next 5-7

days, fair agreement during days 8-10. I am using a compromise between the

models as it concerns the 8-10 day period.

The short range maps, days 1-7, show the main jet stream lifting northward

and weakening a little later this weekend and early next week. The jet begins

to move southward again, especially over the Midwest region, late in the 7 day

period. Temperatures turn warmer as the jet lifts north, much warmer through

the southern plains region. Temperatures turn cooler again once the jet moves

southward late in the period. Precipitation chances are heaviest in association

with a storm moving out of the Gulf of Mexico, through the southeast US and off

the middle Atlantic coast during the next 1-3 days. Precipitation chances after

that are much less.

The longer range maps, days 8-10, show a mean trough over eastern North

America with the deepest portion of this trough over eastern Canada and the

Great Lakes region. The US model shows a strong ridge over western Canada and

the Gulf of Alaska during this period. The European model shows a moderate

ridge over the western US. In either case this is a below normal temperature

pattern for the plains and Midwest regions. The US model would suggest colder

temperatures than would the European model. In either case this is a below

normal rainfall pattern, except possibly through the southeast US areas.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

ARGENTINA: Mostly favorable conditions for filling and maturing corn and

soybeans at this time. Scattered thundershower activity later in the 6 day

period does not look quite as extensive than was thought yesterday.

BRAZIL SOYBEANS/CORN: Soil moisture for second crop corn and late filling early

crops is adequate to surplus at this time. A drier trend is possible for the

next 3-4 days or so. This should help improve conditions for the delayed early

harvests, at least for a time. Showers redevelop through Parana and MGDS after

that.

BRAZIL COFFEE, CITRUS, SUGARCANE AREAS: There appears to be good chance for

much needed rainfall to occur in western and southern Minas Gerais state coffee

areas at the end of this week and this weekend. There is a somewhat less chance

that this rainfall will reach the eastern Minas Gerais and Espirito Santos crop

areas however. This may help to stabilize crop conditions somewhat but more

rain will be needed to end the drought. Longer range maps suggest a return to

somewhat hotter and drier weather after the weekend.

CENTRAL/SOUTH PLAINS: The chances for precipitation appear limited during the

next 10 days, not enough to recharge soil moisture as we move towards spring.

No significant cold is expected in the area during the next 7 to 10 days.

MIDWEST: A break in the extreme cold pattern is coming for later this weekend

and early next week. This should help ease usage of natural gas for heating and

reduce the threat to the soft red winter wheat crop. A return to cold weather

is expected next week. The calendar suggests this would not be as cold as prior

events but so far the weather has gone against the typical March patterns.

SOUTH AFRICA: Heavy thunderstorms since the weekend will maintain adequate to

surplus moisture for maize and sugarcane crops. This likely means local

flooding of fields and is unfavorable for filling crops and early maturing

crops.

CHINA: Moderate to locally heavy snow and rain has occurred through central and

southern winter wheat areas of eastern China and through most winter rapeseed

areas during February. This will help to replenish soil moisture and it will

favor crops when they break dormancy in the spring. Snow to the north was not

as heavy but still fairly significant for this time of the year. Snow and ice

and to a lesser extent rain will have delayed transportation somewhat. The

weather pattern currently favors additional chances for snow or rain through

the Yangtze river valley and the southern part of the North China Plain.

NORTH INDIA: Showers and thundershowers occurred through most of the winter

wheat belt during the second half of February. This favors wheat that is

usually flowering during the month. It should mean a good wheat crop for India.

The pattern may also favor the winter rapeseeds areas as well.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES/FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

WEST: A little light snow and snow showers occurred through southern areas

during the past 24 hours. Drier elsewhere in the region. Temperatures averaged

well below normal but not as cold as during prior days.

EAST: Light snow and snow showers mainly occurred through northern Illinois,

northern Indiana and southern Wisconsin during the past 24 hours. Temperatures

averaged well below normal yesterday.

Forecast....

WEST: Mostly dry today. Chance for a little light snow or snow showers tonight

or during tomorrow into tomorrow night. Dry Saturday. Temperatures average near

to below normal today and Friday, below normal Saturday.

Mostly dry Sunday and Monday. Dry or with only a little light precipitation

during Tuesday. Temperatures average near to above normal during this period,

possibly well above normal through western and southern locations.

EAST: Dry today. Dry or with only a little light precipitation during Friday or

Saturday. Temperatures average below normal today, near to below normal Friday,

below normal Saturday.

Mostly dry Sunday and Monday. Dry or with only a little light precipitation

during Tuesday. Temperatures average near to below normal Sunday, above normal

Monday and early Tuesday, cooler later Tuesday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to below normal.

Precipitation should average near to below normal west, near to above normal

east.

Central/Southern Plains (Winter Wheat)

Summary: Scattered light precipitation, mostly less than 0.25 inch, occurred

through Kansas, Oklahoma and north Texas during the past 24 hours. Temperatures

averaged above normal through eastern Colorado, near to below normal elsewhere

in the region.

Forecast: Mostly dry today and tonight. Scattered light precipitation develops

in northern areas Friday and settles into the south Friday night and early

Saturday. Drier later Saturday. Temperatures average above normal west and

below normal east today, near to below normal north and above normal south

Friday, near to below normal Saturday.

Mostly dry Sunday and Monday. Scattered light precipitation develops in the

north and settles south during Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures average

above to well above normal Sunday and Monday, near to well above normal

Tuesday.

6-10 Day Outlook...Temperatures are expected to average near to below normal

during this period. Precipitation averages near to below normal.

Brazil (Corn, Soybeans, Citrus, Coffee, Sugarcane)

Summary...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana: A few light showers were reported in Parana

during the past 24 hours but these have moved out of the region. Dry in RGDS

during this time. Temperatures averaged near to below normal yesterday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and Goias: Scattered showers and thundershowers, 0.25-1.00

inch (6-25 mm), occurred through southern Goias during the past 24 hours. Light

showers with locally heavier through Mato Grosso. Drier through MGDS.

Temperatures averaged mostly near normal yesterday.

Sao Paulo/Minas Gerais: Scattered showers, trace-0.43 inch (trc-11 mm) and

locally heavier, occurred through northern and eastern Sao Paulo, western and

southern Minas Gerais during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged above

normal through Minas Gerais, well above normal through the east part of the

state. Temperatures averaged near normal through Sao Paulo.

Forecast...

Rio Grande do Sul, Parana, MGDS: Dry today. Dry or with only a few light

showers possible in northern MGDS tomorrow and Saturday. Temperatures average

near to below normal south, near to above normal north, during this period.

Mostly dry or with only a few light showers in RGDS during Sunday through

Tuesday. Temperatures trend somewhat cooler. Dry through Parana and MGDS during

Sunday. A few thundershowers may develop in MGDS Monday. Scattered showers for

MGDS and Parana Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal.

Sao Paulo/Minas Gerais: Chance for scattered to widely scattered afternoon or

night time showers for northeast Sao Paulo, western and southern Minas Gerais

today. Episodes of scattered showers and thundershowers for northeast Sao

Paulo, west and south Minas Gerais during Friday and Saturday. Rainfall

potential with these showers appears to be 0.50-1.50 inches (13-38 mm) and

locally heavier. Drier through southwest Sao Paulo during this time. Only a few

light showers with locally heavier through eastern Minas Gerais. Temperatures

average near to below normal, except northeast areas may continue somewhat

hotter.

Scattered to widely scattered showers and thundershowers linger in the

region during Sunday. Drier Monday. Dry Tuesday. Temperatures turn somewhat

hotter during this period, especially through northern and eastern areas.

Argentina (Corn, Soybean, Wheat)

Summary...Cordoba, Sante Fe, Buenos Aires, La Pampa.

Dry or with only a few light showers through southern areas yesterday.

Satellite pictures show scattered light showers developing early this morning

in northwest Buenos Aires, northern La Pampa and southern Cordoba. Temperatures

averaged near normal yesterday.

Forecast...

Dry or with only a few light showers, favoring west and south areas, during

today or during Friday. Dry early Saturday. Scattered light to locally moderate

showers and thundershowers develop through western and southern areas and move

towards the northeast during Saturday night or during Sunday and Sunday night.

Drier again Monday, Tuesday and early Wednesday. Scattered showers may

redevelop through western areas Wednesday night. Temperatures average near to

above normal today through Saturday, warmest in the west. Temperatures turn

cooler or much cooler during Sunday and Monday, warmer again Tuesday and

Wednesday.

Joel Burgio