Early Ag Weather Watch - Mar 13

EARLY LOOK WEATHER REPORT

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...88 AT POMPANO BEACH FL AND MIAMI (KENDALL-TAMIAMI) FL

LOW  WED...15 BELOW ZERO AT CRANE LAKE MN

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 06:00 PM CT...SYRACUSE NY 1.88 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

The US and European models are in fair to good agreement during the next 4-5

days, fair to poor agreement during days 6 to 10. I am using a little more of

today's European model as it concerns the 6-10 day period but there is some

uncertainty in this outlook. The US model appears to have too much trough over

the southwest US during the 6-10 day period and as a result the model features

too much precipitation through the northern plains, the Midwest and the Delta

regions. I favor the European model since it is more in keeping with current

patterns and recent changes. I would caution, however, there is a slight chance

that the US model may turn out to be more correct. This would require a change

in the 6-10 day outlooks but I am going to wait until tomorrow on this, to see

if the US model or the European model trends continue.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

UKRAINE WEATHER: Dry, very warm weather currently covers Ukraine. This means

there is little, if any, snow cover left over from the winter. A below normal

precipitation pattern and above temperature pattern during the winter period

has left much of the region in need of early spring rains. The warm weather is

forcing winter grains out of dormancy much earlier than normal. The dry weather

and warm temperatures should continue for a few more days. However, cooler to

colder weather and some limiting precipitation is expected later in the 7 day

period. Longer range charts suggest a return to drier, warmer weather again

during the 8-10 day period.

ARGENTINA: Heavy thunderstorms may develop in key growing areas of Cordoba,

Sante Fe and northern Buenos Aires tomorrow and Saturday. This will maintain

adequate to surplus soil moisture for filling crops but may be unfavorable for

early maturing crops and any harvesting.

BRAZIL SOYBEANS/CORN: Soil moisture for second crop corn, late filling soybeans

and late filling early corn is adequate to surplus at this time. Shower

activity may cause local concerns for maturing crops and harvesting during the

next 6 days.

BRAZIL COFFEE, CITRUS, SUGARCANE AREAS: Another period of below normal rains

and above normal temperatures is expected to continue during the next 7 to 10

days or longer. This again increases stress on developing crops, especially

since temperatures will average above normal.

CENTRAL/SOUTH PLAINS: Little rainfall is expected through the dry western

growing areas during the next 10 days. Concerns for this portion of the crop

will increase as we move further into the spring if rainfall does not improve.

The weather models, especially the US model, are showing some sign that the

pattern may be changing. This will need to be watched but is not acted upon for

this report.

MIDWEST: Very cold temperatures following yesterday's snow in northern most

soft red winter wheat areas. The snow cover put down yesterday should protect

the crop. The weather will be mostly open during the 5 day period as rains

shift south into the Delta region. Energy usage for heating will average mostly

above to briefly near normal during the next 5 days and variable during the

6-10 day period... trending towards near to above normal.

SOUTH AFRICA: Episodes of showers and thunderstorms during the past week or

more will maintain adequate to surplus moisture for maize and sugarcane crops.

This likely favors late planted maize through western growing areas but may be

unfavorable for early maturing crops through the east. Rains mostly favor

sugarcane, except in areas of local flooding.

CHINA: Normal to above normal rainfall from the central NCP southward to the

rice belt since early February. This provides favorable moisture for winter

wheat, winter rapeseed, rice and sugarcane areas. More rain is needed through

the northern NCP but this is not that unusual for early March. Early corn

planted south of the Yangtze river will also benefit from the added rains.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES/FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

WEST: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged near normal

west, below normal east, yesterday.

EAST: Scattered precipitation, 0.05-0.25 inch and locally heavier, occurred

from central and east Illinois eastward to Ohio during the past 24 hours. Snow

of 4-8 inches and locally heavier occurred through parts of northern Indiana,

northern Ohio and southeast Michigan yesterday. Temperatures averaged near to

above normal yesterday morning but it turned colder during the day and

overnight. Lows this morning will likely fall to near or below zero (F) through

northeast areas, including northwest Ohio.

Forecast....

WEST: Mostly dry or with only a little light precipitation during today through

Saturday. Temperatures average above normal today, near to above normal Friday,

near to below normal Saturday.

Mostly dry or with only a little light precipitation through northeast areas

Sunday. Chance for light precipitation Monday or Tuesday. Temperatures average

below normal Sunday, near to above normal Monday and Tuesday.

EAST: Mostly dry today. Dry or with only a little light precipitation through

northeast areas during Friday. Dry or with only a little light precipitation

through southern most areas Saturday. Temperatures average below normal west

and well below normal east today, near to above normal tomorrow and Saturday.

Dry Sunday with a slight chance for precipitation near or just south of the

Ohio river Sunday. Mostly dry or with only a little light precipitation during

Monday or Tuesday. Temperatures average below normal Sunday and Monday, near to

above normal Tuesday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to below during

this period, except possibly somewhat warmer through southern areas.

Precipitation should average near to below normal.

Central/Southern Plains (Winter Wheat)

Summary: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged near to

below normal yesterday.

Forecast: Dry today. Chance for light precipitation, favoring southeast areas,

during Friday. Chance for light precipitation, favoring southwest locations,

during Saturday. Temperatures average above normal today, near to above normal

tomorrow and Saturday.

Mostly dry Sunday and Monday. Dry or with only a little light precipitation

Tuesday. Temperatures average below normal Sunday, above normal Monday, near to

above normal Tuesday.

6-10 Day Outlook...Temperatures are expected to vary somewhat during this

period. Precipitation averages near to below normal, although there is a slight

chance for near to above normal precipitation in the eastern areas.

Brazil (Corn, Soybeans, Citrus, Coffee, Sugarcane)

Summary...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana: Mostly dry or with only a few light showers in

the east during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged near to below normal

yesterday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and Goias: A few light showers were reported in eastern Mato

Grosso and southwest Goias during the past 24 hours. Mostly dry elsewhere in

the region. Temperatures averaged near to above normal north, near to below

normal south.

Sao Paulo/Minas Gerais: Mostly dry or with only a few light showers during the

past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged mostly near to slightly above normal.

Forecast...

Rio Grande do Sul, Parana, MGDS: Dry or with only a few light showers in the

north and northeast areas today. Mostly dry tomorrow. Scattered to widely

scattered showers and thundershowers develop in RGDS and Santa Catarina during

Saturday. Temperatures average near normal today, near to above normal Friday

and Saturday.

Chance for a few showers and thundershowers during Sunday, favoring southern

areas. Drier during Monday. Showers and thundershowers may return to RGDS

during Tuesday but it not certain these will make the key southwest growing

belt. Temperatures average near to above normal during this period.

Argentina (Corn, Soybean, Wheat)

Summary...Cordoba, Sante Fe, Buenos Aires, La Pampa.

Mostly dry yesterday. Satellite pictures indicate a few showers in extreme

southwest areas early this morning, mostly south of La Pampa and near or south

of Bahia Blanca Buenos Aires. Temperatures averaged below normal yesterday.

Forecast...

Chance for showers and thundershowers in the southwest and far west areas

today. Moderate to heavy thunderstorms are expected tomorrow into Saturday for

Cordoba, Sante Fe, northern and eastern Buenos Aires tomorrow into Saturday.

Only a few light showers elsewhere in the region during this time. Temperatures

may turn somewhat warmer today but it should turn cooler again tomorrow or

during Saturday.

Dry or with only a few light showers during Sunday, except that northern

Sante Fe may see additions thunderstorms Sunday. Chance for heavy thunderstorms

through central and northern Sante Fe during Monday, little elsewhere in the

region Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday. Temperatures average near to below normal

during this period.

Joel Burgio