Early Ag Weather Watch - Mar 12

EARLY LOOK WEATHER REPORT

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...92 AT DRYDEN TX AND ABILENE TX

LOW  TUE...11 AT MOUNT WASHINGTON NH

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 06:00 PM CT...JUNEAU AK 0.75 INCH, LAKE CHARLES LA

0.37 INCH

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

The US and European models are in fair to good agreement for only about 3 or

4 days, fair to poor agreement at times after that. Today's model preference is

a tough call. I am using a combination of today's European model with

persistence in the current pattern.

The short range maps, days 1-5, first show the snow/rain storm moving east

today and then show a new short wave trough dropping southward over the plains

at around day 3. The European model moves this system east though the lower

Miss river valley later in the 5 day period while the US model drops is

southward through west Texas and into Mexico. I favor the European model as it

concerns this feature since the US model is showing us something that we have

not seen recently.

The longer range maps, days 6-10, from the European model show another

trough dropping south over the Rockies before moving east early in this period

and a third trough dropping south over the western US late in the 10 day

period. The US model is weaker and faster with the first of these troughs and

somewhat deeper and a little faster with the second trough. In either case

there is more trough in the western US than we have seen for most of the

winter. This makes the 6-10 day forecast highly uncertain. I would not want to

make much out of this change, unless follow on maps continue to show this

change.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

UKRAINE WEATHER: Dry, very warm weather currently covers Ukraine. This means

there is little, if any, snow cover left over from the winter. A below normal

precipitation pattern and above temperature pattern has left much of the region

in need of early spring rains. The warm weather is forcing winter grains out of

dormancy much earlier than normal. The dry weather and warm temperatures should

continue for a few more days. However, cooler to colder weather and some

limiting precipitation is expected later in the 7 day period.

ARGENTINA: Mostly favorable conditions for filling and maturing corn and

soybeans at this time. Scattered thundershower activity at the end of this week

should maintain favorable soil moisture for crops and may be somewhat

unfavorable for early maturing crops.

BRAZIL SOYBEANS/CORN: Soil moisture for second crop corn, late filling soybeans

and late filling early corn is adequate to surplus at this time.

BRAZIL COFFEE, CITRUS, SUGARCANE AREAS: Another period of below normal rains

and above normal temperatures should last about 7 or 8 days. This again

increases stress on developing crops, especially since temperatures will

average above normal.

CENTRAL/SOUTH PLAINS: Little rainfall is expected through the dry western

growing areas during the next 10 days. Concerns for this portion of the crop

will increase as we move further into the spring if rainfall does not improve.

The weather models are showing some sign that the pattern may be changing. This

will need to be watched.

MIDWEST: Snow and rain through the eastern Midwest likely means delays to

transportation and travel today. Conditions improve tomorrow. Energy usage for

heating should average near to mostly above normal during the next 7 days. Soil

moisture in soft red winter wheat areas should be adequate at this time.

SOUTH AFRICA: Episodes of showers and thunderstorms during the past week or

more will maintain adequate to surplus moisture for maize and sugarcane crops.

This likely means local flooding of fields and is unfavorable for filling crops

and early maturing crops.

CHINA: Normal to above normal rainfall from the central NCP southward to the

rice belt since early February. This provides favorable moisture for winter

wheat, winter rapeseed, rice and sugarcane areas. More rain is needed through

the northern NCP but this is not that unusual for early March.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES/FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

WEST: Light to moderate precipitation, 0.10-0.40 inch, occurred through

Missouri and in southeast Iowa overnight. Light precipitation, mostly less than

0.25 inch, elsewhere in the region. Temperatures averaged above to much above

normal yesterday.

EAST: Snow and rain has developed overnight and is moving eastward early this

morning. Precipitation is expected to be moderate or heavy over Illinois except

the northwest and far south areas, over central and northern Indiana, Michigan

and Ohio. Temperatures averaged well above normal yesterday as highs ranged

from 44 to 83F, warmest over southern Illinois, far south Indiana and Kentucky.

Forecast....

WEST: Mostly dry or with only a little light precipitation today through

Friday. Temperatures turn colder today and early Thursday, warmer again later

Thursday and Friday.

Mostly dry or with only a little light precipitation Saturday through

Monday. Temperatures average near to below normal Saturday, below normal

Sunday, near to below normal Monday.

EAST: Snow and rain early today will change to all snow before ending from west

to east tonight. Mainly dry Thursday and Friday. Precipitation with this system

is expected to average 0.25-1.00 inch and locally heavier, outside of northwest

areas where is may be less. Snow of 4 inches or more is expected through

north-central and northeast areas with a slight chance for 8 inches or more in

the northeast. Temperatures turn colder today and Thursday, somewhat warmer

again Friday.

Light precipitation may develop along or just south of the Ohio river later

Saturday or during Saturday night. Drier during Sunday. Dry or with only a

little light precipitation in the north during Monday. Temperatures average

below normal north and near to above normal south Saturday, below normal Sunday

and Monday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to below during

this period, except possibly somewhat warmer through southern areas.

Precipitation should average near to below normal.

Central/Southern Plains (Winter Wheat)

Summary: A little light precipitation occurred through northern areas during

the past 24 hours, dry elsewhere in the region. Temperatures averaged above to

well above normal yesterday. Highs were 38-93F, warmest over north-central

Texas. Normals: 48-71F.

Forecast: Mostly dry today and Thursday. Dry or with only a little light

precipitation during Friday. Temperatures turn somewhat colder today, warmer

again tomorrow and Friday.

Light precipitation may linger in the south and southeast areas during

Saturday. Drier Sunday and Monday. Temperatures vary somewhat during this

period.

6-10 Day Outlook...Temperatures are expected to vary somewhat during this

period. Precipitation averages near to below normal.

Brazil (Corn, Soybeans, Citrus, Coffee, Sugarcane)

Summary...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana: Light showers with locally heavier were mainly

confined to eastern Santa Catarina and southeast Parana during the past 24

hours. Temperatures averaged near to below normal yesterday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and Goias: Scattered to widely scattered thundershowers,

0.25-0.75 inch (6-19 mm) and locally heavier, occurred in MGDS, southern Mato

Grosso and western Goias during the past 24 hours. Little elsewhere in the

region. Temperatures averaged near to above normal northwest, near to below

normal elsewhere in the region.

Sao Paulo/Minas Gerais: A few significant showers were reported in western and

southern Sao Paulo yesterday or last night. Little elsewhere in the region

during this time. Temperatures averaged near to above normal.

Forecast...

Rio Grande do Sul, Parana, MGDS: Dry or with only a few light showers with

locally heavier through northern most areas today. Dry tomorrow. Showers may

redevelop in RGDS during Friday. Temperatures trend somewhat warmer during this

period.

Episodes of scattered showers and thundershowers continue during Saturday

through Monday for northwest RGDS, Santa Catarina and southern Parana. Little

elsewhere in the region during this time. Temperatures average near to above

normal.

Argentina (Corn, Soybean, Wheat)

Summary...Cordoba, Sante Fe, Buenos Aires, La Pampa.

Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged near to above

normal through the southwest, near to below normal elsewhere in the region.

Forecast...

Mostly dry today. Scattered showers and thunderstorms develop over Cordoba

and move across Sante Fe during Thursday and Friday. This activity may become

locally heavier. Little elsewhere in the region during this time. Temperatures

average near to above normal today and Thursday, somewhat cooler Friday.

Dry or with only a few light showers Saturday through Monday. Temperatures

average near to below normal south, above normal north.

Joel Burgio