Kansas City, February 7 (World Weather, Inc.) – Warm temperatures and restricted rainfall will dominate Brazil coffee country for at least the next week. Any showers that occur will prove to be too light and erratically distributed to counter evaporation with temperatures staying very warm. The high pressure ridge is still expected to break down next week, but rain will be slow in returning to coffee areas. The odds remain strong that the second half of February will generate more showers and thunderstorms, but it is unclear how significant the resulting rainfall will be. The odds are good that rain intensity will still be below average.

chcoex: BRAZIL

Dry weather occurred in virtually all coffee production areas of Brazil Thursday. A few showers were noted near the coast in Bahia, but no significant rainfall reached into the key coffee production region. High temperatures were mostly in the range of 30 to 35 degrees Celsius in coffee areas, but there were some exceptions. A few locations in east-central and northeastern Minas Gerais reported highs in the upper 20s while a few other locations reported upper 30-degree highs. Northern Parana was hottest for the second day in a row with an extreme high of 38. Another location in the interior northeast part of Minas Gerais reported a high of 37.

Coffee stress will continue to climb through the weekend and into much of next week with daily weather conditions very similar to those of Thursday. Isolated showers will pop up from time to time, but nearly all of them will be too weak and light to provide

enough moisture to counter evaporation. Temperatures will remain very warm to hot, as well, with daily highs in the lower to middle 30s common and extremes reaching into the upper 30s periodically. Low temperatures at night for the coming week will be in the upper teens through the lower 20s with a couple of middle 20s possible.

Relief from the pattern is still not likely for at least the coming week. The medium range computer forecast models continue to promote an opportunity for increasing shower activity in the second half of this month, but so far, the advertised rainfall will remain notably below average. Relief is expected to be erratic in the Feb. 15-22 period, but there will be an increase in shower activity, especially from Parana to Sul de Minas, but relative to the recent days of no rain any shower activity would be an improvement. However, a general soaking of rain is needed most and that may not evolve for through the next ten days.