Early Ag Weather Watch - Feb 7

EARLY LOOK WEATHER REPORT

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...85 AT OPA LOCKA FL AND MIAMI (KENDALL-TAMIAMI) FL

LOW  THU...47 BELOW ZERO AT WEST YELLOWSTONE MT

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 06:00 PM CT...FRESNO CA 0.79 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

The US and European models are in fair to good agreement during the next 10

days, although there are still timing issues and slight differences in the

track of significant systems. I am using a little more of today's European

model during times when differences are significant.

The short range maps, days 1-5, continue to show additional extreme cold

coming southward out of central Canada towards the Midwest region early next

week. A weak southern branch trough forms over the southern plains before

moving across the lower Miss river valley during the Sunday through Tuesday

time frame. This system is not expected to have much moisture associated with

it.

The longer range maps, days 6-10, show the high latitude blocking ridge

well west and north of Alaska. We see a major trough over southwest Alaska and

the northern Pacific Ocean and a somewhat weaker polar trough centered

northeast of Hudson Bay Canada. In the US region there is expected to be a flat

ridge over California and the southwest US during this period. We see a broad

trough over the eastern US. This is still a below normal temperature pattern

for the north-central US and the MIdwest regions but it may be more variable in

nature. Temperatures in the southern plains look to turn warmer as the southern

branch trough shifts to the east. Precipitation during this period will be

associated with the eastern trough and should favor the southeast US and the

middle Atlantic region, possibly the Delta and the southeast Midwest as well.

The major snow/rain event that was mentioned yesterday for the Delta and the

east coast states is somewhat less evident today. However, the European model

still shows at least a moderate system for the southern Delta, the southeast

and middle Atlantic regions during the middle of next week. The US model is

weaker and further to the south with this system.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

SOUTH AMERICA: The strong ridge of high pressure remains in place over or just

east of southern Brazil for another 5 or 6 days. This means more heat and

dryness for Brazil and more heavy storms for central Argentina. Longer range

charts suggest a slight weakening of the  ridge at the end of next week which

could mean an increased chance for showers and less hot weather in Brazil. The

ridge is shown reforming during the weekend and early in the following week.

The very long range maps show the ridge weakening again later that week which

may mean more chances for scattered thundershowers and cooler temperatures.

ARGENTINA: Episodes of scattered showers and thunderstorms during the next 5-7

days and no significant heat will favor pollinating corn and developing

soybeans. However the heavy nature of these storms likely means local flooding.

Sunflower areas of La Pampa and southwest Buenos Aires look drier during this

period.

BRAZIL: A hot, dry weather pattern continues during the next 6 or 7 days. This

will deplete soil moisture and increase crop stress. Showers next week do not

appear to be enough to ease concerns for long as the ridge comes back in

towards the end of the 10 day period. Longer range charts covering the 11-16

day period suggest further weakening of the ridge. If real this would imply a

more beneficial rainfall but since it is beyond the 10 day period it is

considered uncertain.

BRAZIL COFFEE AND SUGARCANE AREAS: Temperatures are expected to average above

normal and rainfall below normal during the next 10 days. This likely means

increasing stress to coffee trees and developing sugarcane during this period.

Today's long range charts covering the 11 to 16 day period suggest a chance for

increasing shower and thundershower activity during the period Tuesday through

Friday February 18-21st.

CENTRAL/SOUTH PLAINS: Temperatures average well below normal during this week

with lows dropping significantly below zero F in north and central growing

areas. However, snow preceded the coldest of the temperatures which should

protect the crop from harm. The outlook suggests warmer and drier weather for

the region during the 6 to 10 day period. This would favor dormant winter wheat

at this time.

MIDWEST: Soft Red Winter wheat areas have been fairly cold during this week but

snow cover should protect the crop from significant winterkill. A second surge

of cold is expected early next week. The pattern may moderate somewhat later

next week. The storm track is well south and east during this period, likely

remaining south and east of the Midwest areas.

SOUTH AFRICA: Episodes of scattered to widely scattered showers and

thundershowers will favor reproductive to filling maize and sugarcane during

the next 10 days. Seasonal to a little above normal temperatures.

UKRAINE/WEST RUSSIA: The cold high pressure system that brought sub zero (F)

readings to many wheat areas last week continues to weaken and move away from

the region. Temperatures will continue a warmer trend through next week. This

will favor dormant winter wheat.

CHINA: Moderate to locally heavy snow and rain has occurred through central and

southern winter wheat areas of eastern China and through most winter rapeseed

areas. This will help to replenish soil moisture and it will favor crops when

they break dormancy in the spring. Snow to the north was not as heavy but still

fairly significant for this time of the year. Snow and ice and to a lesser

extent rain will delay transportation somewhat.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES/FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

WEST: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged well below

normal yesterday.

EAST: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged well below

normal yesterday.

Forecast....

WEST: Mostly dry or with only a few snow showers during today through Sunday.

Temperatures average well below normal.

Mostly dry Monday and Tuesday. Dry or with only a little light snow favoring

the north and east areas during Wednesday. Temperatures are expected to be

extremely cold Monday and early Tuesday. It should turn warmer later Tuesday

and during Wednesday.

EAST: Dry today. Dry or with only a little light snow or snow showers during

the weekend. Temperatures average well below normal during this period.

Mostly dry Monday and Tuesday. Dry or with only a little light snow or snow

showers developing during Wednesday or Wednesday night and Thursday.

Temperatures should be very cold Monday and Tuesday, not as cold Wednesday but

still well below normal, warmer Thursday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average below during the period.

Precipitation should average near to above normal south and southeast areas,

near to below normal elsewhere in the region.

Central/Southern Plains (Winter Wheat)

Summary: Dry or with only a little light snow through southern areas during the

past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged well below normal yesterday.

Forecast: Mostly dry today and Saturday. Dry or with only a little light snow

or snow showers during Sunday. Temperatures average below normal today, below

to possibly near normal tomorrow and Sunday. Warmest in western areas Saturday

and southern areas Sunday.

Chance for some light snow or snow showers during either Monday or Tuesday.

Precipitation totals mostly less than 0.25 inch and favoring south and east

areas. Drier again Wednesday. Temperatures average well below normal Monday,

below normal early Tuesday, above normal west and below normal east later

Tuesday, above normal west and south and near to below normal northeast

Wednesday.

6-10 Day Outlook...Temperatures are expected to turn warmer during this period,

possibly much warmer.  Precipitation should average near to below normal.

Brazil (Corn and Soybeans)

Summary...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana: Mostly dry and very hot during the past 24 hours.

Highs yesterday were mostly 95 to 103 F (35-40 C).

Mato Grosso, MGDS and Goias: A few isolate showers were indicated in Mato

Grosso yesterday. Dry elsewhere in the region. Temperatures averaged near to

above normal. Highs yesterday were mostly 88 to 95 F (31-35 C).

Forecast...

Rio Grande do Sul, Parana, MGDS: Dry or with only isolated light showers today

through Sunday. Temperatures average above normal with highs each day averaging

95 to 104 F (35-40 C).

Mostly dry or with only a few light showers Monday through Wednesday.

Temperatures continue quite hot during these days. Chance for scattered showers

and thundershowers developing during Thursday or Friday. These may favor RGDS.

Temperatures should moderate somewhat during these days.

Argentina (Corn, Soybean, Wheat)

Summary...Cordoba, Sante Fe, Buenos Aires, La Pampa.

Isolated to scattered thundershowers occurred in portions of Cordoba, Sante

Fe and northeast Buenos Aires during the past 24 hours. Mostly dry elsewhere in

the region. Temperatures averaged below normal yesterday, except in the

southwest where readings were near to slightly above normal.

Forecast...

Scattered moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorms today through Sunday

will cover most of Cordoba, Sante Fe and Entre Rios and north and east areas of

Buenos Aires. Temperatures average below normal. Drier during this period for

La Pampa and southwest Buenos Aires. Temperatures in these areas should be

somewhat warmer.

Episodes of scattered showers and thundershowers continue to impact Cordoba,

Sante Fe, Entre Rios, north and east Buenos Aires during Monday through

Wednesday. Drier weather continues for La Pampa and southwest Buenos Aires

during this time. Temperatures average near to below normal.

Joel Burgio