Commodities Market Impact Weather: Major Ice Storm in Southeastern U.S.

  OMAHA  -  A major ice storm in the southeastern U.S., rain for southern Brazil, and a few days of

drier weather for Argentina are the primary weather items for the commodity trade's attention

Wednesday.

MAJOR WINTER STORM FOR SOUTHEASTERN U.S.

  The National Weather Service has issued bulletins for major ice accumulations during the next

couple days in southeastern U.S. This includes a rare warning of catastrophic conditions with an

inch or more of ice accumulation in some places. Heavy snow is also expected with this system as it

moves up along the eastern states. Dangerous transportation conditions, as well as widespread power

outages, are expected with this storm.

WARMER WEATHER AHEAD FOR MIDWEST

  The DTN ag weather forecast calls for very cold weather early this week in the Midwest, but the

pattern may moderate somewhat later in the week. The storm track is well south and east during this

period, likely remaining south and east of the Midwest areas. Longer-range charts suggest a return

to stormy weather is possible. However, it shouldn't be as cold as it has been.

COLD FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS

  In the Southern Plains, a much warmer trend is expected at the end of this week and this weekend.

This will favor livestock and reduce the risk to winter wheat. However, it will also diminish soil

moisture somewhat. Longer range charts are hinting at a more active pattern for the Southern Plains

wheat belt. This may bring some beneficial moisture to the region but it is also somewhat uncertain.

SHOWERS FOR SOUTHERN BRAZIL

  Very hot, mostly dry weather continues to stress corn and soybeans for one more day. Lower

temperatures and showers may ease stress, somewhat, during Thursday and Friday. Hotter conditions

are expected again during the weekend and Monday. Showers and cooler weather may redevelop later

next week.

CONTINUED DRY IN BRAZIL COFFEE AREAS

  In the major Brazil coffee and sugarcane areas, well-below-normal rainfall and above-normal

temperatures during this month and last month have likely increased the risk to coffee and sugarcane

crops. There is a chance during the coming week that conditions may ease some at times. However, it

isn't clear whether this will be enough to prevent further declines in yield potential. Also of

note, long-range maps beyond day 10 suggest that the ridge may redevelop. If real, this would mean

more dry and hot weather.

ARGENTINA EXPECTS BREAK FROM RAIN

  Central Argentina soybeans and corn will benefit from adequate to surplus soil moisture, except in

areas where recent heavy storms has caused serious flooding. A break in the action is coming up, but

it may not last long as more thunderstorms are forecast for the weekend.

WARMER-THAN-NORMAL OUTLOOK FOR UKRAINE

  Ukraine and western Russia winter wheat areas will be warmer than normal during this week. There

are no major concerns for the dormant wheat at this time, but the warming trend may melt some

protective snow cover.

MOSTLY FAVORABLE PATTERN IN CHINA

  Moderate to locally heavy snow and rain has occurred through central and southern winter wheat

areas of eastern China and through most winter rapeseed areas during the past week. This will help

replenish soil moisture and favor crops when they break dormancy in the spring. Snow to the north

wasn't as heavy but still fairly significant for this time of the year. Snow and ice and, to a

lesser extent, rain will delay transportation somewhat.

HOTTER TREND FOR SOUTH AFRICA

  The region looks to be drier and somewhat hotter during the next five to seven days. This will

bear watching, but as of today the maize crop is likely in mostly good condition. It will take a

while before significant stress will occur to the crop.