CONSUMO DO TIPO ARÁBICA AUMENTA À MEDIDA QUE O PREÇO CAI

 Os consumidores de café no Brasil, América, Leste Europeu e

Oriente Médio deverão colocar mais grãos arábica em seus cafés no próximo

ano, à medida que os baixos preços atraem mais demanda pelo produto de melhor

qualidade.

    Um excedente do maior produtor desse grão, o Brasil, após duas colheitas

abundantes sucessivas, ajudou a reduzir os preços para o menor valor em quatro

anos e meio nessa semana, o que deverá impulsionar os torrefadores a aumentar o

uso do grão em suas misturas.

    Porém, os consumidores que detectarem o sabor mais doce e suave em suas

xícaras provavelmente estarão mais sugestionados do que de fato perceberão a

diferença, já que os torrefadores farão mudanças nas misturas que não

poderão ser notadas pelos consumidores.

    Uma pesquisa com 10 comerciantes e torrefadores internacionais de café

mostrou que entre 3 e 4 milhões de sacas de 60 quilos de café - de um

mercado total de mais de 140 milhões - deverão ser trocadas de robusta para

arábica em 2013/14. Os grãos arábica são normalmente encontrados em marcas

de alta qualidade e tipicamente comercializados com um preço maior do que os

grãos robusta, mais resistentes e ricos em cafeína, que são amplamente usados

em bebidas espontâneas.

    Ultimamente, a diferença de preços e menor classificação entre alguns

dos grãos arábicas e dos robustas diminuiu, surgindo uma reversão na

tendência de 2011/12, quando os torrefadores aumentaram a proporção de

robusta em seus blends para cerca de 5 milhões de sacas globalmente, devido aos

preços historicamente altos dos arábicas.

    "Claramente isso está acontecendo, embora eu não ache que será uma

mudança tão grande como vimos na redução dos arábicas em 2011/12", disse

um analista europeu. "A maior mudança é no Brasil".

    O maior produtor de café do mundo também é um dos maiores consumidores,

usando mais de 20 milhões de sacas por ano. Até 1,5 milhão de sacas do

consumo de café doméstico robusta do Brasil deverão ser trocadas por arábica

em 2013/14.

    Os torrefadores de café, que tipicamente não revelam seus blends,

aumentaram a substituição de arábicas com robustas após os futuros do

arábica no ICE aumentarem para seu maior valor em 34 anos em maio de 2011 e o

prêmio sobre o robusta ter alcançado US$ 1,90/libra. O prêmio vem desde

então caindo para menos de 40 centavos e os negociantes disseram que esse

poderá cair ainda mais.

    Há um amplo espectro de qualidades dentro das variedades arábica e

robusta, de forma que os prêmios variam entre diferentes classificações, com

os comerciantes notando que o arábica do Brasil foi comercializado com

descontos em relação a alguns robustas no mês passado. "Haverá uma

substituição, mas a quantidade dependerá da qualidade dos arábicas de baixa

classificação", disse um trader de uma torrefadora internacional.

    Além do Brasil, os comerciantes e torrefadores disseram que América,

Leste Europeu e Oriente Médio também poderão ver alguma substituição, disse

o trader, notando que os mercados emergentes de café são menos sensíveis às

mudanças no sabor.

    "Em países emergentes, as pessoas vão mais pelos preços do que por

qualquer outra coisa; elas não são tão exigentes quanto à qualidade",

disse o chefe de uma comerciante internacional de café, acrescentando que o

mercado na Europa Ocidental não é tão flexível.

    A produção de café do Brasil aumenta e cai de um ano para o outro devido

a seu ciclo bianual, à medida que os cafezais de arábica precisam de tempo

para se recuperar após render grandes quantidades de cerejas. As variações

entre os anos "on" e "off" têm diminuído, entretanto, parcialmente

devido às melhoras no manejo, replantio de arvores, com variedades de maior

rendimento e maior uso de fertilizantes e irrigação.

    A Organização Internacional de Café (OIC) ainda não publicou suas

previsões para 2013/14. Estima-se que a produção global em 2012/13 foi de

145,2 milhões de sacas, das quais dois quintos são de robusta. A OIC disse que

o consumo mundial em 2012 cresceu em 2,2%, para 142 milhões de sacas. O

crescimento futuro deverá ser focado na Ásia, região onde a maioria do café

robusta é produzida, e onde o café é mais consumido na forma solúvel.

   "Eu não acho que (a substituição) significa que a demanda por robusta

está caindo. Eu acho que a demanda na Ásia está forte o suficiente para

compensar isso. A demanda por robusta e arábica crescerão nesse ano", disse

um trader.

Indonesian Coffee Premium Seen Declining on Record Vietnam Crop

Bloomberg - Isis Almeida on 10:59 am November 5, 2013

Buyers of coffee from Indonesia, the third-largest robusta grower, are paying a smaller premium for their beans as exporters sell on concern a record crop in Vietnam will lead to lower prices, according to Volcafe Ltd.

Indonesian beans for shipment in November and December were last week trading at a premium of $160 a metric ton to the price on the NYSE Liffe exchange in London, the Winterthur, Switzerland-based unit of commodities trader ED&F Man Holdings Ltd. said in a report e-mailed on Nov. 1.

That compares with $170 a week earlier, data from the trader showed.

“The drop in Indonesian premiums to below last week’s levels suggests wary exporters want to sell before London futures fall again due to a record crop in Vietnam,” according to Volcafe.

Vietnam, the world’s leading producer of the robusta variety used in instant drinks and espresso, will harvest a record 29 million bags of coffee in the 2013-14 season that started last month, estimates Kona Haque, an analyst at Macquarie Group Ltd.

Futures in London fell 22 percent this year as traders anticipated ample Vietnamese supplies.

A bag of coffee usually weighs 60 kilograms. Indonesia is selling its 2013-14 crop that started there in April. Bean deliveries from farms were about 500 tons to 1,000 tons last week, according to the report.

That’s down from 2,000 tons a week earlier, data from the trader showed.

Local prices were last week at 16,500 rupiah ($1.45) to 17,800 rupiah a kilogram (2.2 pounds) compared with 18,000 to 19,500 rupiah in the previous seven-day period, according to Volcafe.

‘Watchful’ eyes

In Vietnam, the new crop started one-to-two weeks earlier than usual, the trader said.

Farmers are rushing their harvesting, “with watchful eyes on Liffe,” the trader said. Local prices were at 30,200 dong ($1.43) a kilogram on Nov. 1, the lowest since 2010, according to data from the Daklak Trade & Tourism Center on Bloomberg.

The export market “moves slowly, most are short-covering for nearby shipments,” Volcafe wrote.

While differentials are “historically firm,” harvest peak pressure “may oil the wheels a bit in early December,” according to the trader.

Differentials refer to a discount obtained or a premium paid for physical coffee in relation to futures prices. Vietnamese beans for shipment in November and December were last week at a premium of $60 a ton to the futures, according to the report.

That compares with $50 a ton a week earlier.

Robusta Coffee Falls as Vietnam Harvest Begins

Dow Jones  -  Neena Rai

  Robusta coffee futures fell in early European trading Tuesday as harvesting

of coffee beans gets fully underway in top producer, Vietnam.

  Dealers also said weakness in New York's arabica market was limiting any

upside.

  At 1110 GMT, January robusta coffee futures fell 0.9% to $1,470 a metric ton.

Last week, the market hit its lowest level of $1,453/ton--the lowest since June

10, 2010.

   "The coffee markets gave the initial appearance of buoyancy, however, both

markets continued to succumb to speculative and origin selling," Toby Donovan,

broker at BGC, said. "...for now perhaps the bulls will have to wait in the

shade until their day in the sun comes," added Mr. Donovan.

   March cocoa futures, meanwhile, fell 0.1% at GBP1694 a ton, as harvesting of

cocoa beans in top grower Ivory Coast and a very large net long position

limited gains, said dealers.

   The market hit a two-year high of GBP1,774 a ton on Oct. 15 as

stronger-than-expected demand for cocoa beans and concerns of a supply deficit

supported the market.

   Sucden Financial brokerage said technically the market continues to track

sideways around the GBP1700 a ton mark, but short-term gains could break above

GBP 1700 a ton.

    December sugar futures nudged 0.6% higher to $488.60 a ton.

Olam sees global coffee prices bottoming out

Reuters - Eveline Danubrata and Naveen Thukral - Mon Nov 4, 2013 6:26am EST

SINGAPORE  - The global coffee market could find a floor around current levels as multi-year low prices prompt farmers to cut production, commodities trader and coffee supplier Olam International Ltd (OLAM.SI) said on Monday.

London robustas slid to their lowest since June 2010 on Friday, largely driven by prospects of a record crop in Vietnam, while December arabica futures on ICE Futures U.S. dropped to the lowest in more than four years last week.

"It does not make sense for farmers to fertilize at the same level or (carry out) weeding at the same level, so they will reduce the inputs," Olam Chief Executive Officer Sunny Verghese said in an interview at the Reuters Global Commodities Summit.

"There might be a little bit more downside to coffee prices, but we see that we are reaching the bottom."

The International Coffee Organization has raised its global coffee production estimate to 145.2 million 60-kg bags in the 2012/13 crop year, up 0.5 percent from its previous estimate, as output soared in Brazil and Colombia.

The new forecast for 2012/13, which ended September 30, is up 9.6 percent from 2011/12 and the highest on publicly available records that date back to the 1990/1991 crop year.

Robusta production jumped by 11.6 percent to an estimated 56.4 million bags in 2012/13, with arabica production rising by 8.4 percent to 88.8 million bags, the ICO said in a monthly report.

Olam, which produces and trades several agricultural products, is among the top global suppliers of coffee and cotton.

Bearish fundamentals in the cotton market are likely to put pressure on prices although stockpiling and imports by China, the world's top buyer, could provide some support, Verghese said.

The spot month cotton contract on Friday hit a low of 76.54 cents a lb, its weakest since January.

"We believe it will trade in the range between 70 and 75 cents, so there is a downside to 70 cents. If the Chinese government policy continues the way it is, they will trade around 75-80 cents."

China almost doubled the purchase of domestic cotton for state reserves in the latest week to 608,560 metric tons, boosting its buying after a sluggish start to this year's stockpiling program, official data showed.

The International Cotton Advisory Committee on Friday raised its forecast for global inventories on an improving outlook for this season's crops and higher output in major producers.

SLOWER GROWTH PATH

Olam, a key player in global cocoa trade, is keen to expand its manufacturing and grinding business, Verghese said.

"We don't want to be a major processor, but we will want to be a meaningful processor," he said. "We will do a mix of organic and inorganic investments in the processing side."

Olam shifted to a slower growth path in April, saying it will nearly halve its capital spending over the next three years and trim its businesses, after criticism from short-seller Muddy Waters last November sent the company's stock and bond prices plunging.

Singapore state investor Temasek Holdings TEM.UL raised its stake in Olam from around 16 percent before the Muddy Waters allegations to 24 percent.

Verghese said Olam is on track to be free-cashflow positive in the year to June 2014, one year earlier than previously forecast. He added that the company's debt-to-equity ratio is below two times and the company can maintain this level.

"We regularly are in contact with our investors, they are very pleased with the recalibrated stand and they are waiting to see how we execute," he said.

"But they have to be patient and we have to guide them to be patient because none of the measures that we are taking are short fixes, they will take time to execute."

Uncertainties put Wayanad coffee farmers in a fix

The HIndu  -  November 4, 2013 02:35 IST 

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With only a few weeks left for coffee harvest, the uncertainties prevailing in the coffee industry have cast a shadow on thousands of farmers in the State.

A sharp decline in the price of the produce, climatic vagaries, increasing input costs, dearth of workers, lack of support from the government and Coffee Board, and skyrocketing price of fertilizers are the major concerns of the farmers.

The spot price for a kg of Robusta coffee beans in Wayanad market on Saturday was Rs.96 a kg as against the Rs.147 a kg during the corresponding period last year, K. Salu, a coffee dealer and secretary of the Kerala Coffee Processors and Dealers Association, said.

The fall in price was on par with international markets, but it was not fully reflected in Indian market owing to the fall in rupee, he said. A bumper coffee production this year in major coffee producing countries such as Brazil and Vietnam was another reason for the price fall, he said.

Coffee harvesting in Brazil had almost been completed and harvesting in Vietnam had just begun, he said. The price of coffee beans had touched Rs.153 a kg in October last year, Mr. Salu said.

Traders expect a production of 40,000 tonnes of Robusta coffee from the district this year as against the 44, 000 tonnes last year. Trading sources are expecting a 20 per cent fall in production this season owing to the heavy rain during blossom.

According to the data of the Coffee Board, cultivation is spread over 84,931 hectares in the State, including 67,366 hectares in Wayanad district, 12,915 hectares in the southern districts, and 4,650 hectares in Nelliampathy in Palakkad district.

The total production of coffee in the country in 2012-13 fiscal was 3,15,500 tonnes, including 1,00,225 tonnes of Arabica and 2, 15,275 tonnes of Robusta. In Robusta production, 30 per cent was grown in Kerala. The average coffee production in the State was 65,000 metric tonnes annually of which a major share, nearly 55,000 metric tonnes, came from Wayanad district alone, the data said.

Coffee cultivation was not a lucrative business now, as various factors were adversely affecting the industry, Prasanth Rajesh, president, Wayanad Coffee Growers Association, said. The coffee sector in the State was facing acute crisis owing to the alleged negligence from the part of the government and Coffee Board, he said.

The blossom shower and back up showers were the major factors determining the production. As many of the farmers were holding below one hectare, modern irrigation systems such as drip and sprinkler irrigation was far away from their reach and a small change in climate would adversely affect their family budget.

Though the Coffee Board had implemented a Coffee Rainfall Insurance, a scheme to help growers in risk management during excessive or scanty rainfall, most of the farmers kept away from it as the payout from the scheme was far below the actual crop loss, Mr. Rajesh said.

Robusta Edges Higher But Stays Near Lows On Harvest Pressure

DJones -  Neena Rai

  Robusta coffee futures edged higher in early European trading Monday, but

within sight of the market's recent more than three-year low hit last week, as

harvest pressure from top grower Vietnam pushed the market lower.

  At 1110 GMT, January robusta coffee futures traded 0.5% higher at $1,496 a

metric ton. Last week, the market hit its lowest level of $1,453/ton--the

lowest since June 10, 2010.

  Meanwhile, Liffe cocoa futures for March delivery fell 0.4% to 1,695 pounds

($2,698.49) a ton as harvest pressure from West Africa pressured prices lower.

  "Cocoa futures closed lower for the [last] week as improving prospects of

cocoa crops in Ivory Coast, top grower of cocoa, due to favourable weather

conditions helped to outweigh concerns regarding optimistic demand and

continued global deficit of cocoa," said Phillip Futures.

  "If there is no major change in the weather in Ivory Coast and weather

conditions continue to be favourable, we may continue to see further downside

to cocoa prices," added the brokerage.

  The market hit a two-year high of GBP1,774 a ton on Oct. 15 as

stronger-than-expected demand for the chocolate-making ingredient and concerns

of a supply deficit supported the market.

  European Union wheat futures for November delivery fell 0.2% to 207.25 euros

($279.49) a ton, extending losses from the prior session's close.

  "Mounting summer crop harvest progress in the U.S. (and better than expected

yields), combined with much needed rainfall in Argentina, reduced Indian wheat

export prices and slowing U.S. wheat disposals weighed on grain and oilseed

prices over the week," Luke Mathews analyst at Commonwealth Bank of Australia

said. Dealers said the U.S. Department of Agriculture November WASDE report

this Friday will give further price direction.

  December sugar futures were broadly steady and edged higher 0.3% to $482.70 a

ton.

ICE mantem sequencia de negativa, amplia perdas e se aproxima dos 105,00 centavos

  

  Os contratos futuros de café arábica negociados na ICE Futures US encerraram esta quinta-feira ampliando ainda mais as perdas recentes e com a posição dezembro tocando em novas mínimas em mais de 55 meses. Assim como verificado nas duas últimas semanas, o mercado esteve voltado para as liquidações especulativas, sendo que, pouco a pouco, níveis básicos e até suportes vão sendo rompidos.

Nesta quinta, apesar de algumas retrações mais efetivas, o patamar psicológico de 105,00 centavos foi preservado, no entanto, a maior parte dos players avalia que esse nível pode ser testado e deixado de lado ainda nesta sexta-feira ou no curtíssimo prazo, uma vez que os compradores continuam a se mostrar reticentes, não dando oportunidade para que algumas correções básicas possam ser verificadas. Pouco a pouco, o mercado registra um aumento nas rolagens de posições, notadamente entre dezembro e março.

Operadores ressaltaram os números divulgados pela Organização Internacional do Café sobre as exportações globais, ao ressaltar que o mercado continua a demonstrar um quadro de boa disponibilidade do grão, algo que é o suporte para os baixistas atuais. Segundo essa entidade internacional, o Brasil foi um dos casos mais emblemáticos, tendo ampliado sua comercialização do grão ao longo de setembro, ao remeter 2,563 milhões de sacas ao exterior, 13,3% a mais que o registrado no mesmo mês do ano anterior. Num período de 12 meses encerrado no dia 30 de setembro, o país registrou um aumento de 7,2% em seus embarques cafeeiros, tendo colocado no mercado um volume de expressivas 30,95 milhões de sacas de verde. Ainda de acordo com a Organização, as exportações globais de café - incluindo países membros e não membros da entidade - somaram 7,845 milhões de sacas no mês passado, queda de 4,64% na comparação com setembro de 2012. No acumulado em 12 meses, os embarques somaram 110,174 milhões de sacas de outubro de 2012 a setembro de 2013, o que representa alta de 2,3% na comparação com igual período anterior.

No encerramento do dia em Nova Iorque, a posição dezembro teve baixa de 145 pontos, com 105,40 centavos de dólar por libra peso, com a máxima em 107,30 centavos e a mínima de 105,25 centavos, com o março registrando desvalorização de 140 pontos, com 108,55 centavos por libra, com a máxima em 110,40 centavos e a mínima em 108,40 centavos. Na Euronext/Liffe, em Londres, a posição novembro teve queda de 28 dólares, com 1.460 dólares por tonelada, com o janeiro tendo desvalorização de 27 dólares, para o nível de 1.482 dólares por tonelada.

De acordo com analistas internacionais, o dia foi marcado por vendas especulativas, numa continuidade do cenário de pressão observado no segmento cafeeiro, seja para os grãos arábicas como para os robustas. Auxiliando ainda mais nesse cenário baixista, o segmento externo teve uma quinta-feira também pressionada. O dólar apresentou valorização em relação a uma cesta de moedas internacionais. Apenas em relação ao real brasileiro, a moeda norte-americana avançou mais de 1,7%. Diante desse cenário, os vendedores dessa origem se sentiram estimulados em ampliar suas liquidações, vendendo em dólar e conseguindo obter algum lucro na moeda nativa. A maior parte das commodities fechou os negócios desta quinta com retração.

"Estamos em queda constante, cumprindo praticamente o 13º dia de retração consecutiva, se levarmos em conta a última quarta-feira, quando apenas o primeiro contrato esteve no lado negativo. É um cenário pouco animador. Os preços vão se dilapidando, pouco a pouco, e em breve poderemos nos aproximar do nível de 100,00 centavos, que era um cenário esperado apenas pelos mais pessimistas. Com a sombra da disponibilidade ampla, no entanto, essa possibilidade passa a ser considerada cada vez mais", disse um trader.

As remessas de café robusta de Camarões para o exterior caíram pela metade nos dez primeiros meses da temporada 2012/2013, na comparação com o mesmo período do ciclo anterior, informou Conselho Nacional de Cacau e Café dessa nação africana. De dezembro a setembro, Camarões vendeu ao exterior 14.224 toneladas de grãos robusta, recuo de 54,61% ante as 31.340 toneladas do acumulado da temporada anterior. O ciclo de robusta de Camarões se estende oficialmente de dezembro a novembro. Apenas 687 toneladas foram exportadas em setembro, menos do que as 2.858 toneladas comercializadas ao exterior em igual mês de 2012.

As exportações brasileiras no mês de outubro, até o dia 29, totalizaram 2.124.667 sacas de café, alta de 14,79% em relação às 1.850.776 sacas embarcadas no mesmo período do mês anterior, de acordo com informações do Cecafé (Conselho dos Exportadores de Café do Brasil).

Os estoques certificados de café na bolsa de Nova Iorque tiveram alta de 674 sacas, indo para 2.712.325 sacas. O volume negociado no dia na ICE Futures US foi estimado em 34.935 lotes, com as opções tendo 3.384 calls e 2.645 puts — floor mais eletrônico. Tecnicamente, o dezembro na ICE Futures US tem resistência em 107,30, 107,50, 107,80-107,85, 108,00, 108,50, 109,00, 109,20, 109,50, 109,90-110,00, 110,50, 111,00, 111,45-111,50, 111,85, 112,00, 112,50, 113,00, 113,35, 113,50, 114,00, 114,50 e 114,70 centavos de dólar, com o suporte em 105,25, 105,10-105,00, 104,50, 104,00, 103,50, 103,00, 102,50, 102,00, 101,50, 101,00 e 100,50 centavos.

Londres se retrai e bate em menor nível desde abril de 2010

   

  Os contratos futuros de café robusta negociados na Euronext/Liffe voltaram a apresentar quedas nesta quinta-feira e a posição janeiro não conseguiu se sustentar acima do nível psicológico de 1.500 dólares. Ao longo do dia, o segundo contrato tocou a mínima de 1.482 dólares, menor nível de cotação desde abril de 2010. As rolagens de posições, notadamente entre novembro e janeiro, continuam a ser observadas na bolsa londrina.

De acordo com analistas internacionais, o dia foi marcado por vendas especulativas, sendo que várias delas seguiram a tendência negativa dos mercados externos. O dólar subiu em relação a várias moedas globais, o que estimulou algumas vendas mais efetivas em mercados de commodities, incluindo o já sobrevendido café. Adicionalmente, o mercado mantém sua saga baixista, amparada, principalmente, em mais uma safra gigante do Vietnã.

"Até que conseguimos equilibrar os preços nos últimos dias, mas nesta quinta-feira a tendência baixista voltou a prevalecer para o café. Depois de uma abertura com ligeiros ganhos, rapidamente verificamos retrações e o nível de 1.500 dólares foi facilmente ultrapassado, sendo que finalizamos os negócios no menor patamar do dia, o que ilustra o cenário negativo do pregão", disse um trader.

O novembro teve uma movimentação ao longo do dia de 1,59 mil contratos, contra 7,83 mil do janeiro. O spread entre as posições novembro e janeiro ficou em 22 dólares. No encerramento do dia, o novembro teve queda de 28 dólares, com 1.460 dólares por tonelada, com o janeiro tendo desvalorização de 27 dólares, para o nível de 1.482 dólares por tonelada.

COMMODITIES-Precious, base metals lead losses as dollar firms

Marina Lopes - Reuters

Thu Oct 31, 2013 10:37pm GMT

* Silver sees largest daily loss in 6 weeks

    * Corn sets 3-year low on expectations of a record harvest

    * Coffee hits fresh 4-1/2 year low on increase in supplies

    NEW YORK, Oct 31 - Base and precious metals led

commodities lower on Thursday, with silver down 5 percent in its

worst daily performance in six weeks, as the dollar gained and

investors squared their books ahead of the month's end.

    A sharp rise in the dollar index broadly pressured

commodities after data showed business activity in the U.S.

Midwest surged past expectations in October, countering recent

evidence of soft economic growth.

    That came after the Federal Reserve on Wednesday dropped a

reference to tightening financial conditions in its post-meeting

statement, bolstering views that the U.S. central bank could

roll back stimulus sooner than many expected.

    In recent weeks, investors expected tapering of the stimulus

would not start until March 2014.   

    Arabica coffee fell to a 4-1/2 year low on

expectations of a bumper harvest in top-grower Brazil and

notched its biggest monthly drop since November last year.

    The oversupplied market has lost ground every month this

year except for January and September.

    In grains, corn futures prices sank to a three-year

low and finished October down 3 percent, while soybean futures

also fell, on predictions of further increases to a

potentially record-high crop.

    Brent crude futures dropped more than $1 a barrel, reversing

the previous session's gains, as traders booked profits and

turned their focus to the end of the U.S. refinery maintenance

season, which is expected to boost demand for U.S. crude. ]

    The Thomson Reuters/Core Commodity CRB index,

closed down 0.77 percent, weighed by losses in 15 of the 19

commodities it tracks.

    U.S. equities ended the day lower, but posted gains for

October.

    The euro headed for its biggest one-day drop against the

dollar in more than six months as a sharp decline in euro-zone

inflation and record high unemployment stoked speculation that

the European Central Bank may ease further.

    "We are seeing some liquidation (in precious metals) on the

dollar rise and higher Treasury yields. Uncertainty in the

equities market is also prompting some gold investors to take

profits at the end of the month," said Tom Power, senior

commodity broker at RJO Futures.

   

    METALS DOWN

    Silver and gold were the weakest performing commodities on

Thursday as data showed business activity in the U.S. Midwest

surged past expectations in October, countering recent evidence

of soft economic growth. 

    For the month, gold ended October just 0.2 percent lower,

its decline limited by economic uncertainty over a partial U.S.

government shutdown and Washington's delay in raising the U.S.

debt ceiling.

    Copper was hit by selling after the Fed's policy outlook was

less dovish than some had expected, while growing supply and

weak demand also weighed on the outlook for the metal.

    Benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange closed

at $7,250 a tonne, down from a close of $7,289 on Wednesday

    Copper has traded in a $7,000-$7,420 range since early

August due to swelling supply and slower demand growth in China

and is on track to post its first monthly fall since June.

    

    CORN HITS 3-YEAR LOW    

    U.S. corn futures slumped to their lowest levels in more

than three years as the large harvest under way in the United

States overshadowed blockbuster export sales.

    An influx of grain from the advancing harvest was expected

to replenish crop inventories that were drained by strong demand

following a historic U.S. drought last year.

    Soybean futures also fell under harvest pressure, with some

traders expecting the U.S. Department of Agriculture to increase

its crop estimates in a monthly production report on Nov. 8.

    The corn crop is already estimated to be record-sized and

the soy crop the fourth largest in history.

    "Everybody's expecting big numbers and they'll probably get

them," Jack Scoville, president of Price Futures Group, said

about USDA production estimates.

    Chicago Board of Trade December corn futures closed down 2

cents, or 0.5 percent, at $4.28-1/4 a bushel and hit a session

low of $4.27, below a three-year low of $4.28-1/4 reached on

Tuesday. The contract lost 3 percent during the month.

    COFFEE SINKS

    Arabica coffee on ICE touched a four-and-a-half year low,

falling for the 13th straight day on a wave of automatic sell

orders as a lack of any new fundamentals kept the over-supplied

market's bearish tone intact.

    Arabica futures ended October down 7.3 percent, the spot

contract's weakest monthly performance since November 2012 as

the market maintained its long-term trend lower on abundant

global supplies.

    The contract has dropped nearly 27 percent in 2013 so far,

making it the second-weakest performer, next to corn, in the

commodities market.

    Favorable weather for the vital flowering phase of top

grower Brazil's coffee trees has supported expectations for a

third successive large crop.

    This, combined with the expectation for a record robusta

crop from Vietnam's current harvest and an improved yield in top

washed-arabica grower Colombia, is keeping world bean prices

under pressure.

    "We're generally pretty bearish on coffee, given you've got

booming supply from Brazil and South America generally," said

Tom Pugh of Capital Economics.

       

 Prices at 6:04 p.m. EDT (2204 GMT)     

                              LAST/      NET    PCT     YTD

                              CLOSE      CHG    CHG     CHG

US crude                     96.23    -0.15  -0.2%    4.8%

Brent crude                 108.90    -0.96  -0.9%   -2.0%

Natural gas                  3.581    0.000   0.0%    6.9%

 US gold                    1323.70   -25.60  -1.9%  -21.0%

Gold                       1322.44    -0.75   0.0%  -21.0%

US Copper                     3.30    -0.03  -0.8%   -9.6%

LME Copper                 7249.00   -41.00  -0.6%   -8.6%

Dollar                      80.231    0.454   0.6%    4.5%

CRB                        277.863   -2.153  -0.8%   -5.8%

 US corn                     428.25    -2.00  -0.5%  -38.7%

US soybeans                1280.25    -7.50  -0.6%   -9.8%

US wheat                    667.50    -7.50  -1.1%  -14.2%

 US Coffee                   105.40    -1.45  -1.4%  -26.7%

US Cocoa                   2677.00    17.00   0.6%   19.7%

US Sugar                     18.32     0.00   0.0%   -6.1%

 US silver                   21.867                  -27.7%

US platinum                1448.40   -31.50   0.0%   -5.9%

US palladium                736.80   -12.70  -1.7%    4.8%