Brazil Coffee Weather Greater Shower Activity, But No General Soaking Rain  

 By Drew Lerner

Kansas City, January 20 (World Weather, Inc.) – Dry and warm conditions prevailed in Brazil coffee areas over the past few days. Northern production areas from Bahia into Zona de Mata will likely continue in a net drying pattern for at least another week, despite a few showers. Areas to the south will experience the development of erratically distributed showers and thunderstorms with highly varying amounts of rainfall. Most areas will not see a tremendous improvement in crop or soil conditions, but some change is expected.
BRAZIL

Most Brazil coffee areas were left dry during the Friday through Monday morning period. A few showers occurred randomly, but none of them were great enough rain producers for a boost in soil moisture. All coffee areas dried out during the period. Temperatures were warm with most highs in the upper 20s and 30s Celsius and lows in the upper teens and lower 20s.
Showers and thunderstorms will be increasing this week, but the precipitation that falls from Sul de Minas northward to Bahia and Espirito Santo will be a general disappointment through Saturday. The presence of showers will help raise humidity and offer slower rates of declining crop and soil conditions, but until a general soaking of rain falls there will not be any dramatic changes.

The showers that occur Tuesday through Saturday will produce 1 to 15 millimeters of rain most often each day, but an occasional amount to 30 millimeters will be possible. Almost all of the greatest rain will fall in Parana and Sap Paulo, but a few locations in Sul de Minas may getsome greater rain. The greater rainfall in Sul de Minas will be more a fluke in the prevailing pattern rather than a trend changing occurrence. With that said, it will not be nearly as dry in the absolute sense as it has been, but a bigger boost in rainfall will be needed to make a more serious change in conditions.

Rain that falls in northern Rio de Janeiro, Zona de Mata, Espirito Santo, northern Minas Gerais and Bahia will be much less frequent and less significant than that to the south. Net drying is likely in all five of these regions, although some rain may occur infrequently and lightly.

The best opportunity for more significant rain will occur next week, but much caution is advised. The change is subtle and will likely still leave a need for greater rain. However, with that said, there will be a daily scattering of showers and thunderstorms from Parana through Sul de Minas, Zona de Mata and Cerrado northward to northern Minas Gerais and a few central Bahia locations. Rain totals on a daily basis will vary from 1 to 15 millimeters in the north with low coverage. Daily rainfall in Sul de Minas, Cerrado and Rio de Janeiro southward to Parana will vary from 8 to 20 millimeters with a few areas to receive more than 32.

Temperatures will change very little over the next two weeks. Highs most days will be in the upper 20s and lower to middle 30s. A few upper 30s will be possible infrequently. Lowest morning temperatures will be in the upper teens and lower to a few middle 20s.

Net Drying Through Tuesday; Best Rain Potential Delayed

 

Kansas City, January 16 (World Weather, Inc.) – No rain fell in the majority of coffee country Thursday and it will continue very restricted through Tuesday of next week. Showers will increase during mid- to late-week next week, but a general soaking is not very likely in the most important coffee areas prior to January 24 and it is debatable how far north the greater precipitation potentials will extend. Bahia, northern and eastern Minas Gerais, Espirito Santo and Zona de Mata are least likely to see “significant” rain for at least a week and possibly longer. The Cerrado Mineiro coffee areas are becoming much drier, as well and they will not have a very good chance for improved weather until January 24-28.

 

BRAZIL
Dry weather occurred in most coffee production areas in Brazil Thursday. High temperatures were mostly in the upper 20s Celsius in southeastern Bahia and in a small pocket of central Minas Gerais while readings in the 30s were common elsewhere. The highest temperatures varied from 35 to 38 in Zona de Mata, Rio de Janeiro and in random locations in northeastern Minas Gerais, central Bahia and from northern Parana to northern Sao Paulo.

 

Today’s forecast has not changed greatly from that of previous days this week, although the GFS computer forecast model has reduced rain that it advertised Thursday for the last days of January. The model was too wet Thursday at mid-day and again last evening and this morning’s forecast may be a little too dry, but the model is probably doing a better job in limiting the amount of relief that occurs in coffee areas. The World Weather, Inc. Trend Model continues to

 

suggest that only a restricted amount of relief will occur and that at least a flavor of the recent drier biased pattern will linger into early February. That does not mean it will not rain, but it does suggest that an erratic rainfall pattern will occur that will offer limited relief.

 

Zona de Mata coffee remains the most seriously stressed out of all production areas, but unirrigated areas in Espirito Santo, northern and west-central Minas Gerais and Bahia are not far behind. A general bolstering of soil moisture is needed, but not very likely in the current pattern and changes are going to be slight over the next ten days.

 

Rainfall in Sul de Minas and northeastern Sao Paulo will be most significant in the second half of next week and into the following weekend. Until then, any showers that occur will be brief and light with little potential to seriously change the recent drying tendency.

 

Any rain that falls through Tuesday of next week is expected to be mostly insignificant varying from 1 to 15 millimeters with an infrequent greater amount. Parana and southern Sao Paulo will likely be wettest. Crop areas north of Sul de Minas will be left dry or mostly dry.

 

Showers and thunderstorms will increase Wednesday through Friday, January 23, but no general soaking of rain is predicted. Daily rain totals of 5 to 20 millimeters are expected with a few totals as great as 30 in Sao Paulo, Parana and possibly far southern Sul de Minas. Daily rain totals further north will mostly range from 1 to 10 and local totals to 15 millimeters. Northern Sul de Minas will be much drier than areas near the Sao Paulo border and Zona de Mata may stay completely dry.

 

The greatest and most significant rainfall may evolve in the January 24-28 period. Confidence has to be lower during that period of time because the advertised change is so far out in time leaving plenty of opportunity for changes in the outlook. However, a trough of low pressure aloft extending from southern Brazil to Bolivia will begin to redirect Amazon River Basin moisture more into center west and center south Brazil during this period of time. The trough is very weak and may end up too weak to induce a generalized rain, but that is the earliest timeframe that more significant rain may impact Parana, Sao Paulo and Sul de Minas. The trough will have to hold together while drifting northeast to offer any serious increase in rainfall across Zona de Mata or the Cerrado Mineiro region. Higher pressure may reassert itself over northeastern Brazil in the last days of January and if that takes place the trough of low pressure will stall out in southern Brazil and the chances of greater rain in key coffee areas will be forced lower again. The situation will have to be closely monitored.

 

Temperatures are unlikely to change much over the next ten days. Daily highs will be in the 30s Celsius most often with a few upper 20s continuing in southeastern Bahia and a few of the traditionally cooler locations in central Minas Gerais. Extreme highs of 36 to 40 will continue in most of the warmer biased areas noted above in Thursday’s temperature regime. Lowest temperatures at night will be mostly in the upper teens and lower to middle 20s.

Early Ag Weather Watch - Jan 16

 

EARLY LOOK WEATHER REPORT

 

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:
DATA UNAVAILABLE

 

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

 

The US and European models are in fair-poor agreement during the 6-10 day
period. We are leaning more towards the European model today. Both models
indicate a ridge over the western US. The US model shows more trough over the
southwest plains which would imply some precipitation chances for the southern
plains. The European model maintains the trough further to the east over the
central and eastern US  This pattern will continue to allow for some cool air
masses to drop southward out of Canada into the central and eastern US although
no severe arctic cold like we have seen so far this month is indicated at this
time. Due to the position of the trough the best chance for any significant
precipitation with this pattern will be along or off the the east coast.

 

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

 

MATO GROSSO, BRAZIL: Near to above normal temperatures and limited rainfall
during the next 7 days will deplete soil moisture and increase stress on pod
filling soybeans.

 

SAO PAULO/MINAS GERAIS, BRAZIL: Hot and mostly dry weather during the next 7
days will deplete soil moisture and increase stress on crops including grains,
coffee and cane.

 

SOUTH BRAZIL (CORN, SOYBEANS): Generally favorable conditions for developing
crops are expected to continue during the next 7 days.

 

ARGENTINA (CORN,SOYBEANS,WHEAT): Mostly favorable weather for developing corn
and soybeans is expected to continue during the next 7 days.

 

EAST MIDWEST/DELTA (WHEAT): Mostly dry weather during the next 7 days along
with a turn to milder weather. No concerns for wheat at this time.

 

WEST MIDWEST (TRANSPORTATION): No storms during the next 7 days. Temperatures
mostly above normal levels.

 

CENTRAL/SOUTH PLAINS: Mostly dry weather is expected for at least the next 7
days Temperatures above to much above normal through early next week, cooler
during midweek. No concerns for wheat at this time.

 

SOUTH AFRICA (MAIZE/SUGARCANE): Above normal temperatures and diminishing
rainfall leave most growing areas of South Africa in need of more moisture. The
crop is in or approaching pollination over eastern areas. Some showers are
expected in eastern areas. It will remain on the dry side in the west.

 

UKRAINE/WEST AND SOUTH RUSSIA: Dry conditions or just a little light
precipitation during the next 5 days. Temperatures near to above normal. No
concerns for wheat at this time.

 

CENTRAL CHINA (WINTER WHEAT): Seasonally dry weather is expected to continue.
No significant concerns at this time.

 

INDIA (WINTER WHEAT): Some recent beneficial showers for the developing wheat
crop.

 

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

 

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

 

Summary...

 

WEST: Dry conditions. Temperatures above to much above normal.

 

EAST: Mostly dry. Temperatures variable.

 

Forecast...

 

WEST: Mostly dry weather during the next 7 days except for the chance of a
little light snow in the south on Tuesday. Temperatures above to much above
normal through Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Thursday.

 

EAST: Mostly dry weather during the next 7 days except for the chance of some
light snow in the north on Tuesday. Temperatures near normal today, above to
much above normal Saturday-Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday.

 

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures variable. Precipitation mostly below normal.

 

Central/Southern Plains (Winter Wheat, Corn, Soybean, Sorghum)

 

Summary: Dry weather observed. Temperatures above to much above normal.

 

Forecast: Mostly dry weather during the next 7 days. Temperatures above to much
above normal through Monday, near to above normal Tuesday, near to below normal
Wednesday, below normal Thursday.

 

6-10 Day Outlook...Temperatures variable. Precipitation below normal.

 

Brazil (Wheat, Corn, Soybeans)

 

Summary:
Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...Dry conditions or just a few light showers.
Temperatures variable.
Mato Grosso...Scattered light showers with locally heavier. Temperatures
near to above normal with highs in the low to middle 90s f.

 

Forecast:
Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...Near daily episodes of scattered showers and
thunderstorms through Tuesday. Dry conditions or just a few light showers on
Wednesday and Thursday. Rainfall totals for the next 3 days will be light to
moderate with locally heavier. Temperatures variable through Monday, near to
below normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday.
Mato Grosso...Near daily episodes of scattered light showers with locally
heavier during the next 7 days. Temperatures near to above normal.

 

Central Argentina (Wheat, Corn, Soybeans)

 

Summary: Dry conditions. Temperatures near to below normal.

 

Forecast: Dry weather today. Dry conditions or just a few light showers
Saturday. Episodes of scattered showers and thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday.
Moderate to heavy totals are expected. Dry weather on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms on Thursday. Temperatures near to above
normal Friday, near to below normal Saturday, near to above normal Sunday, near
to below normal Monday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday, variable
Thursday.

 

Mike Palmerino

Not Much Dryness Relief For At Least A Week

 

Kansas City, January 15 (World Weather, Inc.) – Mostly dry weather occurred again in Brazil coffee areas Wednesday and little change will occur for a while, although some showers will occur in Parana and Sao Paulo over the next several days. Some showers will reach into Sul de Minas and Rio de Janeiro late this weekend and early next week, but the resulting rainfall will fail to be significant enough to change crop or soil conditions. Greater potentials for showers will increase in Sul de Minas later next week, but no soaking of heavy rainfall is expected.

 

BRAZIL
Very little rain fell in Brazil coffee production areas Wednesday, although showers were noted near Londrina, Parana and in the port city of Sao Paulo where rain totals reached 9 millimeters through midnight CST (0600 GMT). Satellite imagery suggested a few other thunderstorms occurred in interior northern Sao Paulo with the strongest thunderstorm cluster occurring northwest of the port city of Sao Paulo by about 150 miles.

 

High temperatures Wednesday afternoon continued in a mostly seasonably warm range of upper 20s Celsius in southeastern Bahia and in a small region of central Minas Gerais while 30s occurred elsewhere. Most of the highs were 30s to 34, but extremes to 37 occurred in northeastern Minas Gerais, in Zona de Mata and Rio de Janeiro.

 

Significant changes have not occurred to the forecast for the next seven days. High pressure aloft centered over northeastern Brazil will prevail into early next week, although it will gradually weaken. The pattern will maintain a restricted rainfall potential for most coffee areas from Sul de Minas to Bahia and Espirito Santo over much of the period. Totally dry weather may not occur, but the showers that do pop up will prove to be mostly insignificant. Parana and Sao Paulo will continue to experience the highest frequency of shower activity during the coming five days with rain totals that will mostly vary from 1 to 15 millimeters each day. There will be potential for local totals to 25 millimeters, but such instances will be rare until early next week.

 

The center of the high pressure system will breakdown during the early to middle part of next week and during the middle to latter part of the week scattered showers and thunderstorms will increase from Sul de Minas and Rio de Janeiro southward. However, Rainfall is still expected to be erratic and often light. The remnant circulation of air over coffee areas will be slow to change even though the center of the high pressure system will dissipate. That slow change in upper air flow pattern will keep rainfall restricted until a trough of low pressure attempts to move through southern Brazil at the end of next week or into the following weekend.

 

The approaching trough of low pressure is much stronger on the GFS computer forecast model run today relative to that on the European model run. World Weather, Inc. believes the European model is performing best right now and for that reason we will perpetuate showers and thunderstorms into the second weekend of the forecast, but we will leave the greatest rainfall in Parana and Sao Paulo.
The further north one travels in Brazil during the next ten days the drier coffee country will become and the more unlikely significant relief from dryness will be. Zona de Mata remains the most stressed coffee production region in the nation with some unirrigated areas in Espirito Santo, northern Minas Gerais and Bahia also experiencing a growing amount of stress each day. West-central Minas Gerais crops are also experiencing a growing amount of stress. The pattern change advertised is not great enough to seriously change rainfall in these more northern coffee production areas and that will likely leave crop stress running very high even if there are a few showers and thunderstorms late next week or into the following weekend. Any precipitation that occurs will not be generalized in these more northern crop areas.

 

Sul de Minas, Rio de Janeiro and areas south into Parana will receive 5 to 20 millimeters of daily rainfall with local totals to 35 during the second half of next week and into the following weekend. Most of the precipitation will be greatest in Parana and Sao Paulo, however, leaving much of Sul de Minas in need of greater rainfall.

 

Temperatures will change little over the next week to ten days. Highs in the 30s will occur often with a few upper 20s periodically. Lowest morning temperatures will be in the upper teens through the lower 20s with a few middle 20s.

Brazil Coffee Weather Not Much Dryness Relief For At Least A Week  By Drew Lerner

Kansas City, January 15 (World Weather, Inc.) – Mostly dry weather occurred again in Brazil coffee areas Wednesday and little change will occur for a while, although some showers will occur in Parana and Sao Paulo over the next several days. Some showers will reach into Sul de Minas and Rio de Janeiro late this weekend and early next week, but the resulting rainfall will fail to be significant enough to change crop or soil conditions. Greater potentials for showers will increase in Sul de Minas later next week, but no soaking of heavy rainfall is expected.

BRAZIL
Very little rain fell in Brazil coffee production areas Wednesday, although showers were noted near Londrina, Parana and in the port city of Sao Paulo where rain totals reached 9 millimeters through midnight CST (0600 GMT). Satellite imagery suggested a few other thunderstorms occurred in interior northern Sao Paulo with the strongest thunderstorm cluster occurring northwest of the port city of Sao Paulo by about 150 miles.
High temperatures Wednesday afternoon continued in a mostly seasonably warm range of upper 20s Celsius in southeastern Bahia and in a small region of central Minas Gerais while 30s occurred elsewhere. Most of the highs were 30s to 34, but extremes to 37 occurred in northeastern Minas Gerais, in Zona de Mata and Rio de Janeiro.
Significant changes have not occurred to the forecast for the next seven days. High pressure aloft centered over northeastern Brazil will prevail into early next week, although it will
gradually weaken. The pattern will maintain a restricted rainfall potential for most coffee areas from Sul de Minas to Bahia and Espirito Santo over much of the period. Totally dry weather may not occur, but the showers that do pop up will prove to be mostly insignificant. Parana and Sao Paulo will continue to experience the highest frequency of shower activity during the coming five days with rain totals that will mostly vary from 1 to 15 millimeters each day. There will be potential for local totals to 25 millimeters, but such instances will be rare until early next week.

The center of the high pressure system will breakdown during the early to middle part of next week and during the middle to latter part of the week scattered showers and thunderstorms will increase from Sul de Minas and Rio de Janeiro southward. However, Rainfall is still expected to be erratic and often light. The remnant circulation of air over coffee areas will be slow to change even though the center of the high pressure system will dissipate. That slow change in upper air flow pattern will keep rainfall restricted until a trough of low pressure attempts to move through southern Brazil at the end of next week or into the following weekend.
The approaching trough of low pressure is much stronger on the GFS computer forecast model run today relative to that on the European model run. World Weather, Inc. believes the European model is performing best right now and for that reason we will perpetuate showers and thunderstorms into the second weekend of the forecast, but we will leave the greatest rainfall in Parana and Sao Paulo.
The further north one travels in Brazil during the next ten days the drier coffee country will become and the more unlikely significant relief from dryness will be. Zona de Mata remains the most stressed coffee production region in the nation with some unirrigated areas in Espirito Santo, northern Minas Gerais and Bahia also experiencing a growing amount of stress each day. West-central Minas Gerais crops are also experiencing a growing amount of stress. The pattern change advertised is not great enough to seriously change rainfall in these more northern coffee production areas and that will likely leave crop stress running very high even if there are a few showers and thunderstorms late next week or into the following weekend. Any precipitation that occurs will not be generalized in these more northern crop areas.
Sul de Minas, Rio de Janeiro and areas south into Parana will receive 5 to 20 millimeters of daily rainfall with local totals to 35 during the second half of next week and into the following weekend. Most of the precipitation will be greatest in Parana and Sao Paulo, however, leaving much of Sul de Minas in need of greater rainfall.

Temperatures will change little over the next week to ten days. Highs in the 30s will occur often with a few upper 20s periodically. Lowest morning temperatures will be in the upper teens through the lower 20s with a few middle 20s.

Arabica Coffee vez maiores de 26% este ano pelo Rabobank sobre Déficit  Marvin G. Perez

(Bloomberg) - Ganhos vai acelerar no segundo semestre do ano, e preço pode chegar a US $ 2,30 / lb até o final de dezembro, de acordo com Ross Colbert, estrategista global de bebidas à base de NY pelo Rabobank International. NOTA : Futures em NY até 13% este WK para $ 1,82 / lb em tempo seco Brasil; preços saltou de 50% em 2014, após uma seca no país, o maior produtor e exportador mundial Se estiagem continua, vai agravar os danos da colheita do último ano, Colbert diz em entrevista telefônica NOTA: Em 12 mos iniciado em 1º de outubro de global de café déficit visto em 9,9 milhões de sacas, de acordo com Volcafe, unidade da ED & F Man Caindo os preços dos combustíveis vai ajudar a aumentar o rendimento disponível, aumentando a compra de café fora de casa em os EUA, o maior consumidor, Colbert diz que uma economia fraca na Europa significará praticamente plano a menor demanda na região, diz ele.

 

Gee, outro artigo bullish pela Bloomberg. Como peculiar. Além disso, o bs sobre queda dos preços dos combustíveis casusing as pessoas a beber mais café. Talvez eles deveriam beber o óleo em vez. 

 

 

Steady Drying In Many Areas Through Next Week

 

Kansas City, January 9 (World Weather, Inc.) – Dry and warm weather occurred in Brazil coffee country Thursday and more of the same was expected through the next ten days. A steady rate of drying will occur in many areas leading to the development of stress for some areas and more significant stress in other areas. Bahia, Espirito Santo, Zona de Mata and areas north of Sul de Minas will be driest.

 

BRAZIL
Very little rain was suggested by satellite imagery across Brazil’s coffee production region Thursday. A few thunderstorms occurred randomly in Sao Paulo and northern Parana, but resulting rainfall was mostly quite light. A few other showers of insignificance occurred in eastern Bahia while Sul de Minas, Zona de Mata, Espirito Santo and Rio de Janeiro were dry.

 

Observed weather data was not available from Brazil Thursday, but high temperatures were expected to be mostly in the upper 20s and lower to a few middle 30s Fahrenheit.

 

Limited rainfall and net drying will occur in Brazil’s coffee region through the next ten days. Totally dry weather is not anticipated in all areas, but there will be quite a few locations that will be missed by the isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms that occur. Many of the crop areas that get rain will fail to get enough to counter evaporation resulting in a net loss in soil moisture. Crop stress will slowly evolve and intensify resulting in a growing threat to cherry development, which is similar to what occurred last year at this time. The drier bias is not expected to prevail as long as that of last year, but there is very little sign of change for the coming ten days. Daily rainfall will vary from 1 to 10 millimeters with some potential for greater amounts in a few locations. The region from Rio de Janeiro and Sul de Minas southward to Parana will have the highest frequency of rainfall, but the amounts will still be too light to counter evaporation most of the time.

 

The driest areas in Brazil coffee country will occur from Zona de Mata and central Minas Gerais northward to Bahia where most unirrigated crops will see a steady rate of drying resulting in increasing stress and some threat to production.

 

Daily high temperatures will be in the 30s most often over the next full week to nearly ten days. A few upper 20s will also occur periodically. Morning lows will be in the upper teens and lower 20s most often with a few middle 20s possible.

Coffee Extends Gains on Brazil Worries

Ira Iosebashvili

     Arabica-coffee prices advanced for a fifth consecutive session Friday, rising 14% for the week,
as investors worry about renewed dry weather in Brazil.
     Arabica coffee for delivery in March on the ICE Futures U.S. exchange was recently up 3.8% at
$1.8370 a pound.
     Rain is expected to be sparse in Brazil over the next 10 days, analysts at Newedge said. Brazil
is the source of one-third of the world's coffee and about half of the world's arabica beans.
     Prices rose 50% in 2014, after rainfall in the South American country eased in January,
culminating in Brazil's worst drought in decades. The drought clipped output and fueled worries
about how already weakened trees would fare in 2015, sending prices soaring above $2 a pound and
hitting consumers with a wave of retail-price rises by big roasters such as Starbucks Corp.
     Coffee was the top-performing commodity in 2014 and one of just a few to post a gain amid steep
drops in prices for crude oil, natural gas, copper and soybeans.
     While the market has retreated from those highs, investors are wondering whether a similar
scenario will play out again this year.
     "Right now, it's still too early to declare a drought," said Hernando de la Roche, senior vice
president at INTL FCStone in Miami. "We will have to wait until the end of February to get a better
idea."
     The 2014 coffee harvest in Brazil was the smallest in three years. This year is an off-year in
Brazil's two-year coffee cycle, meaning production would already have been lower without the unusual
weather. Colombia, the world's No. 2 arabica grower, has been ramping up production, which is
helping to alleviate some of the concerns about global supplies. But Colombia only produces about a
quarter as much coffee as Brazil.
     In other markets, orange juice for March delivery was up 0.3% at $1.4160 a pound.
March-delivery cotton was up 0.1% at 60.61 cents a pound. March cocoa was flat at $2,985 a ton after
settling at a two-week high Thursday. The March contract for raw sugar was up 0.1% at 14.89 cents a
pound.

Commodities Market Impact Weather: Midwest Cold Continues

 

  OMAHA--Short-term stressful cold in the Midwest, and below-average rainfall in central Brazil, are
the primary weather items for the commodity trade's attention Thursday.
SHORT-TERM WINTER STRESS IN MIDWEST
  The DTN ag weather forecast calls for some short-term winter stress in the Midwest due to snow and
blizzard conditions in the northern areas. Elsewhere, some scattered damage from bitter cold is
possible in soft red winter wheat areas. A much milder trend is in store during the next week to 10
days.
MILD PATTERN FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS
  Southern Plains wheat has likely escaped cold-weather damage in the short range. In the longer
range period, temperatures moderate somewhat.
DRIER AND WARMER IN CENTRAL BRAZIL
  Across central Brazil, a drier trend with warm to somewhat hot conditions during the next week
will reduce soil moisture and increase stress to developing corn and soybeans. Prior rains may
maintain favorable growing conditions early in this period before the soils dry enough to increase
stress to the crop.
FAVORABLE SOUTHERN BRAZIL MOISTURE
  In southern Brazil, soil moisture due to prior rains and at least some showers will favor crops in
Rio Grande do Sul and southern Parana for a while. Conditions are mostly favorable in northern
Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul as well, but there may be a tendency for net drying in these
locations.
WARM AND DRY IN BRAZIL COFFEE AREAS
  Southeastern Brazil will have below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures during the next
seven days. The driest and warmest conditions will likely be in Minas Gerais. Stress to sugarcane,
coffee trees and row crops in the region will increase during this period.MOSTLY FAVORABLE IN ARGENTINA
  In central Argentina, scattered rains and less hot weather favors corn and soybeans crops.
Episodes of heat and dryness may be affecting wheat in the southwest as well as some sunflower in
the area.
LIMITED COLD-WEATHER STRESS IN RUSSIA WHEAT
  Temperatures have dropped below zero Fahrenheit through much of the Ukraine and Russia wheat belt.
Snow cover should protect most of the wheat from the lowest of these temperatures. However, some
areas with low snow cover may be somewhat affected.
SEASONAL CONDITIONS IN CHINA WHEAT
  Central China wheat areas will have seasonally-dry conditions during the next week. Temperatures
trend somewhat higher during this period. There are no significant concerns at this time.
DRIER PATTERN IN SOUTH AFRICA
  In South Africa, a drier trend will develop during the next week, along with above-normal
temperatures. Scattered showers have occurred in southern areas during the past 24 hours.
Temperatures Wednesday averaged near to above normal.