Brazil Coffee Weather

Last Week Of Month Earliest Opportunity For Rain

By Drew Lerner

Kansas City, October 15 (World Weather, Inc.) – Concern about coffee production in Brazil has risen in the marketplace the past few days as dryness remains persistent and temperatures very warm to hot. A reduction in relative humidity has occurred in some areas raising warning flags of greater stress levels in some coffee trees. A few erratic showers will occur through the middle part of next week, but “meaningful” rain that would have potential to bring relief to the drier areas of Sul de Minas, northeastern Sao Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Zona de Mata and Cerrado Mineiro will not be possible until the last week of this month.

BRAZIL

No rain fell in Brazil coffee production areas Wednesday and temperatures remained warmer than usual. High temperatures Wednesday afternoon were mostly in the 30s Celsius with a few middle and upper 20s near the Sao Paulo coast. A few extreme highs reached near 40 in far northern Minas Gerais.

No significant change was offered in the computer forecast model guidance overnight. Weather pattern changes are not likely for the next eight or nine days, but the last week of this month will begin generating some rain from northeastern Sao Paulo into a part of Sul de Minas, Rio de Janeiro and “possibly” southern portions of both Zona de Mata and southern Cerrado Mineiro. Most of the rain that occurs during the last week of the month will be light, but it will provide “opportunity” for a little relief to the recent hot, dry,

Brazil Coffee Weather

conditions. Rainfall that occurs today through Friday of next week will be mostly insignificant.

Showers will impact a few coffee production areas each day through the end of next week, but resulting rainfall will rarely exceed 6 millimeters most days and none of the rain will be great enough to counter evaporation. A localized greater rain total will be possible on any day with Parana, southwestern Sao Paulo and a few coastal areas from Sao Paulo to Bahia most likely to encounter the precipitation.

Showers and a few thunderstorms will begin to increase in the last week of October in Sul de Minas, Rio de Janeiro, southern Zona de Mata, southern portions of Cerrado Mineiro and northeastern Sao Paulo, but areas to the north may not see much opportunity for rain. It is a little early to correctly predict rain amounts that might occur in the last week of the month, but daily amounts of 5 to 15 millimeters and locally more may evolve. Confidence in the late October rainfall pattern is low, but that is the earliest that any increase in shower activity will take place. A further increase in rainfall should occur in the first half of November.

Temperatures will continue warm with daily highs in the upper 20s and 30s Celsius in most of the production region. The warmest conditions are expected from northern Sao Paulo through western and northern Minas Gerais to central Bahia. A few extreme highs near 40 are expected from northern Minas Gerais to central Bahia. Lowest morning temperatures will be in the teens and lower 20s.