Brazil Coffee Weather

Another Week of Generally Dry, Warm Conditions

By Drew Lerner

Kansas City, October 9 (World Weather, Inc.) – Rain Thursday was mostly confined to northern Parana and southwestern Sao Paulo. These areas will have additional opportunity for rain over the next two weeks while the main coffee areas of northeastern Sao Paulo, Sul de Minas, Cerrado Mineiro and Zona de Mata stay dry or mostly dry and warm.

BRAZIL

Mostly dry weather occurred in Brazil’s most important coffee production areas from northeastern Sao Paulo northward Thursday. Satellite imagery suggested a few thunderstorms in northernmost Parana and far southwestern parts of Sao Paulo. High temperatures were mostly in the 30s from northern Parana to central Bahia. Highs in eastern Minas Gerais and parts of both Zona de Mata and Espirito Santo to eastern Bahia were mostly in the upper 20s and lower 30s.

Today’s forecast has not changed much over that of Thursday. Most of Brazil’s key coffee production areas will be left dry through the middle part of next week. Any rain that evolves will be mostly confined to Parana and southwestern Sao Paulo and some of that region may receive some hefty rainfall. Much lighter showers may impact southern Rio de Janeiro and immediate neighboring areas of northeastern Sao Paulo and far southeastern Minas Gerais, but resulting rainfall is not likely to be very great.

Concern over coffee conditions will stay moderately high over the next ten days as significant rain continues absent from the forecast. The most important coffee production areas from northeastern Sao Paulo into Sul de Minas, Rio de Janeiro, Cerrado Mineiro and Zona de Mata will go without significant rain. The only period favorable for rainfall in any key coffee areas will be Monday and Tuesday when showers produce up to 10 millimeters of rain from northeastern Sao Paulo to southern Sul de Minas and southern Rio de Janeiro.

The lack of rain continues to apply pressure on recently flowered trees. Those that pollinated successfully will need rain soon so that cherry setting occurs favorably and to avoid the potential of cherry aborting if conditions get too dry. The loss of early season cherries is not very likely. The stressful environment might help some of the trees that flowered in early to mid-September that may not have experienced successful pollination to set new blossom buds for a possible second flowering when seasonal rains finally arrive.

Amazon River Basin moisture continues lacking voracity and until a more normal buildup of moisture and greater shower and thunderstorm activity evolves the potential for soaking rains in key coffee production areas will remain low. High pressure aloft over northeastern Brazil is forcing what little tropical moisture is present in the Amazon River Basin to occur mostly in far western parts of the region.

World Weather, Inc. still believes improved weather will occur in the very last days of October and first days of November.

Daily high temperatures through the next week to ten days will continue mostly in the 30s Celsius with extremes pushing near 40 in the north periodically. Central Bahia and northern Minas Gerais will be hottest. In contrast, some middle and upper 20-degree highs will occur periodically along the coast from Sao Paulo to Bahia. Lowest temperatures at night will be in the teens and lower 20s.