Early Ag Weather Watch - Mar 17

EARLY LOOK WEATHER REPORT

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...94 AT MIRAMAR NAS CA AND DEATH VALLEY CA

LOW  SUN...27 BELOW ZERO AT CRANE LAKE MN AND BABBITT MN AND EMBARRASS MN AND

WAKEFIELD MI

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 06:00 PM CT...TALLAHASSEE TN 3.21 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

The US and European models are in fair to good agreement during the next 7

days, fair agreement during days 8-10. I am using a little more of today's

European model as it concerns the 8-10 day period. The main difference occurs

at days 9 and 10. The European model shows a new cold air mass coming into the

Midwest from Canada at the end of the 10 day period. The US model shows a

trough developing over the central Plains. The European model would suggest

more cold weather and dry conditions. The US would be warmer and somewhat

wetter.

The shorter range maps, out to day 8, show cool to cold weather continuing

and little precipitation for the key growing areas.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

MIDWEST: Episodes of cool and sometimes very cool temperatures will slow the

warm up of soils and limit the potential for early spring field work during the

next 10 days. Precipitation chances appear limited during this time.

CENTRAL/SOUTH PLAINS: Little rainfall is expected through the dry western

growing areas during the next 10 days. Concerns for this portion of the crop

will increase as we move further into the spring if rainfall does not improve.

The weekend rainfall has helped ease dryness somewhat where it fell but this is

only a small part of the wheat belt.

UKRAINE WEATHER: A below normal precipitation pattern and above temperature

pattern during the winter period has left much of the region in need of early

spring rains. The warm weather forced winter grains out of dormancy much

earlier than normal. The region has had rainfall of 0.12 to 0.51 inch (3-13 mm)

during the weekend as temperatures turned somewhat cooler. It should continue

cool early this week before turning much warmer again at the end of the week.

ARGENTINA: Heavy thunderstorms hit key growing areas of Cordoba, Sante Fe and

Buenos Aires late last week and early in the weekend period. This will maintain

adequate to surplus soil moisture for filling crops but may be unfavorable for

early maturing crops and any harvesting. Local flooding is likely.

BRAZIL SOYBEANS/CORN: Soil moisture for second crop corn, late filling soybeans

and late filling early corn is adequate to surplus at this time. Thunderstorms

in RGDS later during the weekend or early this week may favor late filling

crops but would be unfavorable for early maturing varieties. Somewhat drier,

warmer weather elsewhere in the region will favor mature crops and harvest

activities.

BRAZIL COFFEE, CITRUS, SUGARCANE AREAS: The main growing areas will likely see

little rainfall and above normal temperatures during the next 5-7 days. This

continues the summer pattern of stress on developing crops due to below normal

rains and above average temperatures.

SOUTH AFRICA: A period of warmer, drier weather will favor early maturing maize

through the eastern areas during the next 3-5 days. Recent rains have improved

conditions for later planted maize through the western growing belt. Recent

rains have mostly favored sugarcane in the east, except in areas of local

flooding.

CHINA: Normal to above normal rainfall from the central NCP southward to the

rice belt since early February. This provides favorable moisture for winter

wheat, winter rapeseed, rice and sugarcane areas. More rain is needed through

the northern NCP but this is not that unusual for early March. Early corn

planted south of the Yangtze river will also benefit from the added rains.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES/FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

WEST: Scattered light precipitation, 0.10-0.40 inch, occurred through northwest

Missouri during the weekend period. Dry or with only a little very light

precipitation elsewhere in the region. Temperatures averaged near to below

normal north and above normal south Saturday, below normal Sunday.

EAST: Moderate precipitation occurred in extreme southern Illinois, extreme

southern Indiana and Kentucky during the weekend period. Dry or with only a

little very light precipitation elsewhere in the region. Temperatures averaged

near to above normal Saturday, below normal Sunday.

Forecast....

WEST: Mostly dry today. Scattered light precipitation with locally heavier

during Tuesday. Drier again Wednesday. Temperatures average above normal west

and below normal east today, near normal Tuesday, below normal Wednesday.

Chance for a little light precipitation north, drier south, during Thursday

through Saturday. Temperatures average near to above normal west and below

normal east Thursday, near to above normal Friday, below normal Saturday.

EAST: Mostly dry today. Dry or with only a few light showers, favoring the

north, during Tuesday. Dry Wednesday. Temperatures average below normal today,

near to above normal west and below normal east Tuesday, near to below normal

Wednesday.

Mostly dry during Thursday. Chance for a little light precipitation during

Friday. Drier again Saturday. Temperatures average below normal Thursday, near

to above normal Friday, below normal Saturday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average below normal.

Precipitation should average near to below normal.

Central/Southern Plains (Winter Wheat)

Summary: Rain, 0.30-1.50 inches, occurred during the weekend period through the

eastern part of the north-central Texas wheat areas. Rain, 0.25-1.00 inch,

occurred through the balance of the north-central Texas area and also through

southwest and central Oklahoma and southeast Kansas. Little elsewhere in the

region. Temperatures averaged near to above normal Saturday, below normal

Sunday.

Forecast: Mostly dry today. Chance for a little light precipitation, favoring

northern areas, during tomorrow. Drier again Wednesday. Temperatures average

above normal today, below normal north and west and above normal southeast

tomorrow, below normal Wednesday.

Mostly dry Thursday. Dry or with only a little light precipitation Friday

and Saturday. Temperatures average above normal Thursday, cooler again Friday

Early Ag Weather Watch -2-

and Saturday.

6-10 Day Outlook...Temperatures are expected to average near to below normal

during this period. Precipitation averages near to below normal.

Brazil (Corn, Soybeans, Citrus, Coffee, Sugarcane)

Summary...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana: Moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorms,

0.50-1.50 inches (13-38 mm) and locally heavier, occurred through RGDS during

the weekend period. Little through Parana during this time. Temperatures

averaged near to below normal.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and Goias: Scattered showers, 0.12-0.75 inch (3-19 mm),

occurred through Mato Grosso during the weekend period. Little elsewhere in the

region. Temperatures averaged near to above normal.

Sao Paulo/Minas Gerais: Mostly dry during the weekend. Temperatures averaged

near to mostly above normal.

Forecast...

Rio Grande do Sul, Parana, MGDS: Episodes of rain and thunderstorms for RGDS

and Santa Catarina today through Wednesday. Rainfall may be quite heavy.

Showers and thundershowers reach to Parana later in the period. Drier in MGDS.

Temperatures turn cooler in the south, warmer north, during this period.

Chance for scattered to widely scattered showers and thundershowers through

Parana and MGDS Thursday through Saturday. Little through RGDS during this

time. Temperatures average near to above normal.

Argentina (Corn, Soybean, Wheat)

Summary...Cordoba, Sante Fe, Buenos Aires, La Pampa.

Heavy storms, 1.50-3.00 inches (40-80mm) and locally heavier, occurred from

southeast Cordoba through Sante Fe, central and eastern Buenos Aires during the

early part of the weekend period. Light rains through western Cordoba and

western Buenos Aires, little through La Pampa. Temperatures averaged near to

below normal.

Forecast...

Mostly dry today through Wednesday. Temperatures average below normal during

this period.

Mostly dry or with only a little light shower activity during Thursday

through Saturday. Temperatures average below to well below normal during this

period.

Joel Burgio